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新澳股份:羊毛價格上行有望帶動毛利率及接單向上

新澳股份:羊毛價格上行有望帶動毛利率及接單向上 天风国际
2025-11-10
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导读:天風國際堅定深度研究,A股精品投研揚帆海外。

新澳股份

Zhejiang Xinao Textiles

(603889 CH)


羊毛價格上行有望帶動毛利率及接單向上

Stable 25Q3E revenue and profit: wool price uptrend would have boosted gross margin and order intake

  買入(維持評級)

BUY (maintain)

投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

公司發佈三季報

公司25Q3營收13億同增2%,歸母凈利1.1億同增3%,扣非后歸母凈利1億同增11%。


公司25Q1-3營收39億同增1%,歸母凈利3.8億同增2%,扣非后歸母凈利3.7億同增5%。


25Q3羊毛價格持續上漲

據澳大利亞羊毛交易所東部市場綜合指數(美元)顯示,25年10月9日羊毛價格約1001美元/KG,較8月底的818美元/KG增長約22%。


我們認為,羊毛價格增長,一方面,有利於帶動公司毛利率增長,主要系公司主營毛精紡紗線,需要有一定原材料(羊毛)庫存; 羊毛漲價后此前低價儲備庫存價值顯現,同時原料價格傳導有望帶動產品售價提升,進而提升毛利率; 另一方面,或有利於激發客戶下單意願,隨著羊毛價格上升,中下游客戶為更好控制成本,或加大毛精紡紗線進貨,進而利好公司訂單增長。


公司平穩推進產能規劃,優化海內外產能佈局

子公司新澳越南“50,000錠高檔精紡生態紗紡織染整項目”是公司加深全球化產業佈局的重要舉措,其中一期20,000錠實現逐步投產。子公司新澳銀川“20,000錠高品質精紡羊毛(絨)紗建設項目”,已完成安裝調試工作,公司預計下半年陸續釋放產能。子公司英國鄧肯(TODD & DUNCAN LIMITED)實現引進外部投資者,增厚自身資金實力,加速升級高端羊絨紡紗產線,為可持續發展注入新動能。


深化全球市場佈局,滿足客戶多元化需求

公司相繼亮相SPINEXPO™巴黎、紐約及上海展會、德國慕尼克PERFORMANCE DAYS功能性面料展覽會、上海國際功能性紡織品(秋冬)展覽會等,以高性能羊毛混紡紗線展現天然與科技的創新融合,展示了新澳功能性紗線在戶外運動領域的應用。


公司初步開展「大客戶戰略」,嘗試通過對高價值客戶系統性分類管理,深度理解客戶需求、提供定製化解決方案,建立更為長期穩定的合作關係。


Xinao leveraged the wool rally with its raw materials stockpile, in our view, while customers ordered more to hedge against potentially higher future prices. Operationally, the company continued to raise its global brand profile and ramp up production. We maintain our BUY call.


The gist: BUY

  • 25Q3E results: rising wool price led 2% revenue rise and 3% net profit growth

  • Global production network: expansions and upgrades

  • Brand outreach: global market presence; locking in high-value clients


25Q3E results: rising wool price led 2% revenue rise and 3% net profit growth

Key financials: Xinao reported unaudited 25Q3E financial results on 28 Oct 2025 with stronger revenue and net profit yoy:

  • 25Q3E: Revenue grew 2% yoy to RMB1.3bn, while net profit came in at RMB107m, up 3% yoy, with ex-nonrecurring net profit rising 11% yoy to RMB103m.

  • 25Q1–3E: Revenue came to RMB3.9bn, up 1% yoy, while net profit increased 2% yoy to RMB380m, with ex-nonrecurring net profit climbing 5% yoy to RMB370m.


Key growth driver: rising wool prices

We believe the wool price uptrend was a key driver. According to the Australian Wool Exchange Eastern Market Composite Index (USD), the wool price was about USD1,001/kg as of 9 Oct 2025, up about 22% from USD818/kg at the end of August. We highlight two key impacts of the wool rally:

  • Gross margin boost: As Xinao’s main business is worsted yarn, it is required to hold certain levels of wool raw material inventory. The wool price appreciation spotlights the value of stockpiles previously purchased at lower prices. And with the expected raw material price pass-through, the company gets to raise product selling prices, boosting gross margin.

  • More orders: Rising wool prices could also increase customer willingness to place orders. As wool prices rise, midstream to downstream customers might increase worsted yarn purchases to better manage future costs, which expands the company’s order volumes.


Global production network: expansions and upgrades

  • Yinchuan: Its subsidiary in this city in Ningxia, China constructed a new 20,000-spindle premium worsted wool yarn factory and has completed installation and commissioning. Production capacity is gradually ramping up through 25H2.

  • Vietnam is a major node in its global production network, where Xinao’s subsidiary is constructing a 50,000-spindle premium worsted eco-yarn textile dyeing and finishing factory. Phase I with 20,000 spindles is completed and production is gradually rolling out.

  • UK: Its UK subsidiary Todd & Duncan succeeded in bringing in external investors to strengthen its capital base, enabling it to speed up the upgrade of its premium cashmere spinning line for sustainable development.


Brand outreach: global market presence; locking in high-value clients

  • Major exhibitions: Xinao exhibited at Spinexpo™ in Paris, New York and Shanghai, and at Performance Days, the functional fabric fair in Munich, as well as its Shanghai edition for autumn/winter. The company demonstrated how its high-performance wool-blend yarns fuse nature and technology, a versatility that applies well to outdoor sports.

  • Key accounts: The company initiated a key account strategy to systematically categorize and manage high-value clients to deeply understand their needs, provide customized solutions, and establish more stable, long-term partnerships.


投資建議/Investment Ideas


調整盈利預測,維持買入評級

基於25Q1-3財務表現,公司有望受益於近期羊毛價格上漲,我們調整盈利預測,預計公司25-27年歸母凈利分別為4.7/5.5/6.3億(前值為4.4/4.9/5.4億),對應PE分別為12/10/9x。


Valuation and risks

Based on the 25Q1–3 performance, we believe Xinao benefited from the rise in wool prices. We raise our 2025/26/27E net profit forecast to RMB467m/551m/626m (from RMB445m/486m/541m), implying 12x/10x/9x PE. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示:外貿環境變化; 戰略規劃落地不及預期,市場競爭激烈,核心高管流失等。


Risks include: adverse changes in the macro trade environment; less-than-expected implementation of strategic plans; more intense competition than expected; and loss of key executives.



Email: research@tfisec.com

TFI research report website: 

(pls scan the QR code)


文件由天風國際證券集團有限公司天風國際證券與期貨有限公司(證監會中央編號:BAV573)及天風國際資產管理有限公司(證監會中央編號:ASF056)(合稱“天風國際集團”)編制,所載資料可能以若干假設為基礎,僅供作非商業用途及參考之用途,會因經濟、市場及其他情況而隨時更改而毋須另行通知。任何媒體、網站或個人未經授權不得轉載、連結、轉貼或以其他方式複製發表本檔及任何內容。已獲授權者,在使用本檔或任何內容時必須注明稿件來源於天風國際集團,並承諾遵守相關法例及一切使用的國際慣例,不為任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本檔,違者將依法追究相關法律責任。本檔所引用之資料或資料可能得自協力廠商,天風國際集團將盡可能確認資料來源之可靠性,但天風國際集團並不對協力廠商所提供資料或資料之準確性負責。且天風國際集團不會就本檔所載任何資料、預測及/或意見的公平性、準確性、時限性、完整性或正確性,以及任何該等預測及/或意見所依據的基準作出任何明文或暗示的保證、陳述、擔保或承諾而負責或承擔任何法律責任。本檔中如有類似前瞻性陳述之內容,此等內容或陳述不得視為對任何將來表現之保證,且應注意實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。本檔並非及不應被視為邀約、招攬、邀請、建議買賣任何投資產品或投資決策之依據,亦不應被詮釋為專業意見。閱覽本文件的人士或在作出任何投資決策前,應完全瞭解其風險以及有關法律、賦稅及會計的特點及後果,並根據個人的情況決定投資是否切合個人的投資目標,以及能否承擔有關風險,必要時應尋求適當的專業意見。投資涉及風險。敬請投資者注意,證券及投資的價值可升亦可跌,過往的表現不一定可以預示日後的表現。在若干國家,傳閱及分派本檔的方式可能受法律或規例所限制。獲取本檔的人士須知悉及遵守該等限制。


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