李寧
Li Ning
(2331 HK)
奧運資源強化品牌建設
25Q3 update: retail sales down by a mid-single-digit, while brand reach extends from Olympics to more global sports
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買入(維持評級) BUY (maintain)
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投資要點/Investment Thesis
投資要點/Investment Thesis
公司發佈2025三季度營運概要
零售表現截至2025年9月30日止第三季度,李寧銷售點(不包括李寧YOUNG)於整個平台之零售流水按年錄得中單位數下降。 就渠道而言,線下渠道(包括零售及批發)錄得高單位數下降,其中零售(直接經營)渠道錄得中單位數下降,批發(特許經銷商)渠道錄得高單位數下降; 電子商務虛擬店鋪業務錄得高單位數增長。
銷售點數量截至2025年9月30日,於中國,李寧銷售點數量(不包括李寧YOUNG)共計6,132個,較上一季末凈增加33個,本年迄今凈增加15個。 在凈增加的15個銷售點中,零售業務凈減少46個,批發業務凈增加61個。 截至2025年9月30日,於中國,李寧YOUNG銷售點數量共計1,480個,較上一季末凈增加45個,本年迄今凈增加12個。
品牌建設成果顯著
作為2025-2028年中國奧委會及中國體育代表團官方體育服裝合作夥伴,李寧為本屆世運會中國體育代表團打造融合蜀地文化韻味與環保科技的領獎裝備,向世界展現中華優秀傳統文化,弘揚中國體育精神; 中國奧委會與李寧品牌聯合發佈2026年米蘭冬奧會中國體育代表團領獎裝備; 同時,李寧成為本屆大學生足球世界盃官方指定服裝及比賽裝備贊助商,全程為運動員們的出色表現提供專業、可靠的裝備支撐; 此外,國際武術聯合會與李寧品牌聯合宣佈,李寧品牌成為2025-2032年國際武術聯合會全球合作夥伴。
拓展運動裝備即時零售
2025年10月20日,李寧品牌宣佈正式入駐美團閃購平台,近千家門店同步上線,業務覆蓋全國近百個城市,實現全品類、全年齡段專業運動裝備全量供給,為消費者打造“平均30分鐘速達”的便捷體驗。 此次合作是李寧「單品牌、多品類、多渠道」戰略的重要舉措,通過拓展即時零售渠道,進一步滿足用戶在運動健身、日常換季、差旅應急等多場景對運動裝備的多元化需求。
Li-Ning’s global profile continues to rise across additional sports arenas like football and wushu, while it boosts its Olympics and World Games outreach. Its physical store network expanded in Q3, while it joined Meituan instant retail, offering 30-minute delivery. We maintain our BUY call.
The gist: BUY
Q3 retail sales down by a mid-SD; offline down high-SD, online up high-SD
Brand outreach: Team China podium wear depicts Chinese sporting spirit
Ecommerce edge sharpens with entry to Meituan instant retail platform
Q3 retail sales down by a mid-SD; offline down by high-SD, online up by high-SD
Li Ning released an update of 25Q3 performance on 24 Oct, with retail sales generated by all POS (points of sale), excluding Li-Ning Young, weaker by a mid-single-digit yoy.
Channel breakdown:
Offline sales (both retail and wholesale): Physical retail recorded a high-single-digit decline yoy, with direct sales down by a mid-single-digit, while wholesale (franchise) sales declined by a high single-digit.
Online sales: The virtual stores recorded high-single-digit growth yoy.
POS network breakdown:
Total ex-Young: Li-Ning has 6,132 POS in China as of 30 Sep 2025, a net increase of 33 qoq; on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, its POS count expanded by 15 net, as the company reduced retail POS by 46 net and increased wholesale POS by 61 net.
Young: The company’s youth brand, Li-Ning Young, has 1,480 POS in China as of 30 Sep 2025, up by 45 net qoq and up by 12 net YTD.
Brand marketing: Team China podium sportswear depicts Chinese sporting spirit
Olympics: Li-Ning, as the official sportswear partner of Olympics Team China for the 2025–28 season, jointly unveiled with the Chinese Olympic Committee its podium attire for the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics.
World Games: The brand also created award ceremony outfits for the Chinese team at World Games 2025, which was held in Sichuan in August. Featuring eco-friendly technology and Sichuan design elements, its sporting apparel showcased Chinese culture and sporting spirit.
Soccer: Li-Ning became the official sponsor of sportswear and competitive gear this year for FISU University World Cup Football, a global hallmark of university-to-university sports excellence.
Wushu: The International Wushu Federation and the company jointly announced Li-Ning as a global partner for the International Wushu Federation from 2025 to 2032.
Ecommerce business edge sharpens with entry to Meituan instant retail platform
Li-Ning announced on 20 Oct it has officially entered Meituan’s Instashopping platform with nearly 1,000 of its offline stores across nearly a hundred cities throughout China running online simultaneously. The brand provides a full range of professional sports gear for all categories and age groups. Shoppers now have the convenience of 30-minute delivery on average. The collaboration is a major initiative under Li-Ning’s single-brand, multiple-category and omnichannel strategy. By expanding instant retail channels, the company aims to better fulfill diverse consumer demand for sports gear across different scenarios, including sports, fitness training, seasonal wardrobe changes, and emergency travel requirements.
投資建議/Investment Ideas
維持盈利預測,維持“買入”評級
我們維持25-27年盈利預測,預計營收為291億人民幣、300億人民幣、311億人民幣; 歸母凈利分別為 25 億人民幣、27 億人民幣、29 億人民幣; EPS 分別為 0.98 元人民幣、1.06 元人民幣、1.14 元人民幣。
Forecast and risks
We maintain our forecast for 2025/26/27E with revenue at RMB29.1bn/30bn/31.1bn and net profit at RMB2.5bn/2.7bn/2.9bn; corresponding to RMB0.98/1.06/1.14 EPS. We maintain our BUY rating.
風險提示:市場競爭加劇,新品市場接受度不及預期,終端消費不及預期,匯率波動等風險。
Risks include: intensifying competition; weaker-than-expected market acceptance of new products; weaker-than-expected end-consumer demand; and FX fluctuations.
Email: research@tfisec.com
TFI research report website:
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