China Ruyi Holdings (0136 HK)
以优质内容为基，制片+流媒体+游戏多业务布局
Initiating coverage: quality content drives Ruyi’s 3-pronged production, streaming and games business
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TP:HKD2.33 BUY(Initiation) |
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
中国儒意：科技赋能流媒体公司，制片+流媒体+游戏多业务布局
中国儒意控股有限公司（0136.HK）为一家以科技赋能的流媒体公司，积极布局互联网流媒体业务，专注垂直纯付费订阅会员制，通过儒意影业强大的制片能力、南瓜电影先进的科技算法以及全程无广告的特色模式，为全球用户提供海量优质内容和个性化观影体验；同时近年积极开拓游戏业务，通过影游联动，有效提升公司影视知识产权变现能力。截至2022年底腾讯为公司第一大股东，近年不断增持彰显对公司发展信心。
Tech drives triple business buildout: streaming media, film production and games
Technology-driven China Ruyi Holdings is building out its internet streaming media business focusing on niche services based purely on paid subscription membership. The dual synergy of its business units, renowned film production house Ruyi Films and online streaming platform Pumpkin Films’ advanced algorithms and no ads, gives Ruyi’s global users a personalized viewing experience and access to a rich library of quality content. Its third games business unit has been growing in recent years, boosting IP monetization for its film and TV business. Tencent, Ruyi’s largest shareholder as of end-2022, expanded its stake recently, suggesting confidence in Ruyi’s growth.
儒意影业：业内头部影视公司，实行制片人中心制，聚焦优质内容创作
儒意影业为公司旗下专业的影视制作公司，拥有行业领先的研发、制作及宣发能力。2006年成立至今，成功打造出品了一系列影视文化精品。1）生产端：版权丰富，积累众多优质原创内容。儒意影业拥有众多高品质原创内容，主导制作了50余部作品，储备数百部影视版权，获得飞天奖、金鹰奖、白玉兰奖、华鼎奖等重要奖项。电影代表作有《你好，李焕英》、《送你一朵小红花》、《致我们终将逝去的青春》、《动物世界》、《保你平安》等，电视剧代表作有《北平无战事》、《琅琊榜》、《芈月传》及《老酒馆》等。2021年，儒意影业作为主要出品方的代表影片《你好，李焕英》，累计票房达54.14亿元，截至2021年位列中国电影票房第二名，并打破中国电影史最快破50亿票房纪录。2）制造端：拥有众多优秀制片人，实行制片人中心制，有效控制制作成本。儒意影业拥有一批有经验、有能力的专业制片人团队，公司董事长柯利明先生、执行董事陈曦女士、张强先生，均为电影业界资深影视制片人，成功投资制作多部电影。同时公司拥有成熟的工业化制片经验，以精细化分工、科学化管理、规模化制作、流水线生产，在降低生产成本的同时，实现作品较高的艺术完成度，打造完善的内容生产链。
Production: market leader’s producer-centered model; quality content creation
Subsidiary Ruyi Films is the industry leader in R&D, production and marketing; it has produced a string of film and TV cultural works since it started business in 2006.
IP rich: Ruyi Films has been the lead producer in over 50 works and amassed a rich pipeline of high-quality original content. The company owns copyrights to hundreds of film and TV works. Awards that it has won include Feitian, Golden Eagle, Magnolia and Huading. Film masterpieces include Hi Mom, A Little Red Flower, So Young, Animal World and Post-Truth, and acclaimed TV dramas include All Quiet in Peking, Nirvana in Fire, The Legend of Miyue and The Legendary Tavern. Ruyi Films released Hi Mom in 2021 as the representative producer and the movie accumulated box-office receipts of RMB5.41bn, the second highest in China’s film industry market that year, breaking the record for the fastest film to break the RMB5bn threshold in Chinese film history.
Production: Ruyi’s producer-centered model is operated by a large team of experienced and competent producers who tamp down production costs. Company chairman Ke Liming and executive directors Chen Xi and Zhang Qiang are senior production industry professionals who have invested into and produced many works. The company’s long industry experience, fine-tuned division of labor, scientific management, scale production and assembly line mode, help to reduce production cost while raising the film’s artistry to a high degree. In this way, it ensures smooth operation across the production content value chain.
南瓜电影：公司旗下垂直纯付费订阅制流媒体平台，用户行为数据化，电影解构标签化，内容生产定制化三重维度打造核心竞争力
南瓜电影为公司旗下线上流媒体、垂类内容平台，基于会员付费为核心商业模式，全程无广告，致力于通过数据算法为观影者创造更身临其境的私人定制化观影体验。近年其注册会员数快速增长，截至2021年底，南瓜电影旗下累计注册会员数达7084万，同比增长101%；累计付费订阅用户数达2868万，同比增长472%。展望未来，付费用户数量增长以及会员价格提升有望进一步带动其业绩增长。
Pumpkin Films: pure subscription-paid niche service; competitive edge in user behavior data, movie deconstruction and labeling, and custom content
Ruyi’s online streaming media and niche content platform’s core business model is a paid membership service with a totally ad-free experience throughout. The company wants to create an customized immersive viewing experience using data algorithms. The number of registered members has shot up in recent years. Cumulative registered members reached 70.84m as of end-2021, up 101% yoy, while cumulative paid subscribers grew to 28.68m, up 472% yoy. Looking ahead, we expect paying users and membership prices will drive performance growth.
景秀游戏：获腾讯加持，通过影游联动持续提升公司知识产权变现能力
景秀JINGXIU为公司旗下游戏业务品牌，公司于2022年正式进军游戏业务领域。2022年1月10日，公司与腾讯计算机订立游戏技术合作协议，由腾讯计算机于中国内地向公司旗下游戏产品提供技术服务以及渠道推广服务。2022年5月26日公司推出第一款游戏——全新形态的三国策略卡牌手游《乱世逐鹿》，由公司独家代理发行，上线当日获得APP Store Today推荐，名列免费游戏排行第一，截至2022年7月19日总注册人数已达134万，总充值额超过人民币1亿元；后于2022年7月，公司推出正版授权传奇IP系列大型多人在线角色扮演手游《传奇天下》。2023年2月，公司进一步加深与腾讯合作，签订游戏合作框架协议，就游戏代理发行，共同运营及营销服务开展多元合作，进一步拓宽业务范畴，挖掘版权价值。
Jingxiu Games: synergy with films and Tencent support boost IP monetization
Ruyi entered the games industry in 2022 under the Jingxiu brand. It entered into a games technology cooperation agreement with Tencent Computer on 10 Jan 2022, whereby Tencent Computer provides technical services and channel marketing for the company’s game products in China. On 26 May 2022, the company launched its first title, 乱世逐鹿 (“Luanshi Zhulu”, which refers to the battle for supremacy in the mortal realm), a new spin on Three Kingdoms strategy card mobile games, for which it is the exclusive distributor. On its launch day, the game was recommended by App Store on the Today tab and listed first among free games. Total registrations reached 1.34m as of 19 July 2022 and the total recharge amount exceeded RMB100m. In July 2022, the company launched Legendary World, its legendary IP copyrighted series of massive multiplayer online role-playing mobile games. In February 2023, it deepened its collaboration with Tencent by signing a games cooperation framework agreement, which covers multiple areas such as agency distribution and joint operation and marketing services, widening the scope for IP monetization.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
盈利预测及投资建议：我们认为，公司制片+流媒体+游戏多业务布局，同时拥有丰富知识产权储备，叠加大股东腾讯支持，有望进一步打开IP变现空间，带动业绩增长，预计公司23-25年营收为32.03/41.16/47.32亿元，净利润为9.65/12.54/14.93亿元，给予2023年22x PE，对应212亿元人民币市值，以6月7日人民币兑港币汇率 1:1.1计算，对应市值233亿港元，目标价2.33港元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
Valuation and risks
With its film production, streaming media and games multi-business buildout, IP resources and backing by major shareholder Tencent, we see China Ruyi’s IP monetization potential increasing to drive business growth. We forecast 2023/24/25E revenue at RMB3.20bn/4.12bn/4.73bn and net profit at RMB965m/1.25bn/1.49bn. Given our PE of 22x in 2023E, market cap is RMB21.2bn/HKD23.3bn (based on the RMB:HKD rate of 1:1.1 on 7 June) and our target price is HKD2.33. We initiate coverage of the stock with a BUY rating.
风险提示：行业政策变化风险，项目进展不及预期风险，市场竞争风险，核心人员流失风险，技术风险，测算具有一定主观性。
Risks include: industry policy changes; slower project progress than expected; competitive risks; loss of core personnel; technical risks; and analysis estimates’ subjectivity to a degree.
Email: equity@tfisec.com
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