周大生：前三季度利潤增長轉正，金價及產品優化加持利潤率

公司發佈2025年三季報：

25Q1-3，收入67.7億元、同比下滑37.3%，歸母凈利潤8.8億元、同比增長3.1%，扣非凈利潤8.5億元、同比增長1.85%。

25Q3，收入21.8億元、同比下滑16.7%，收入降幅較25Q1/Q2收窄，歸母凈利潤2.9億元、同比增長13.6%，扣非凈利潤2.7億元、同比增長7.7%。

分業務：優化產品供給，25Q3自營線下及電商渠道收入積極增長

分品類：25Q1-3，素金類/鑲嵌類/品牌使用費收入49.4/5.6/5.7億元，分別同比下滑44.4%/下滑4.9%/增長3.0%。 素金類產品受金價上漲衝擊最大。

分渠道：25Q1-3，加盟/電商/自營線下收入33.4/19.4/13.4億元，分別同比下滑56.3%/增長17.7%/下滑0.9%，收入佔比49%/29%/20%。 25Q3，加盟/電商/自營線下收入9.2/7.8/4.5億元，分別同比下滑46.8%/增長68.2%/增長15.7%。 公司強化自營與電商渠道建設，加大輕量化、高性價比產品供給，“悅己”與“輕珠寶”類型產品銷售佔比提升，自營與電商業務表現優於整體、收入端增長積極。

渠道情況：25Q3末公司終端門店4675家，其中加盟/自營各4275家/400家。 25Q3總門店數凈減少43家，其中自營/加盟各凈減少36家/凈減少7家，關店程度環比收窄（25H1總門店數較年初凈減少290家）。

盈利能力：毛利率穩步提升

25Q1-3毛利率29.7%、同比提升9.2pct，25Q3毛利率28.5%、同比提升1.0pct。 25Q1-3凈利率13.0%、同比提升5.1pct，25Q3凈利率13.2%、同比提升3.5pct。 毛利率提升得益於產品結構優化及金價上行帶來的定價紅利。 分拆渠道看：25Q1-3，自營線下/電商/加盟毛利率分別為35.1%/24.7%/27.9%、同比提升6.4pct/下滑6.3pct/提升12.2pct。 25Q3，自營線下/電商/加盟毛利率分別為35.2%/16.3%/33.5%、同比接近持平/下滑17.5pct/提升10.4pct。

Net profit climbed 14% in Q3E, as CTS boosted its direct sales and ecommerce channels, which led their revenue growth to turn around, while product categories such as self-indulgent and costume jewelry expanded in sales proportions. We maintain our earnings forecast and BUY call.

The gist: BUY

• 25Q3E results: revenue trend moderated to 17% drop; net profit grew 14% yoy

• Better margins: Q3E gross margin up 1.0ppt to 28.5%, net margin up 3.5ppt

• Store footprint: closure pace slowed in Q3 to 4,675 physical stores in total

25Q3E results: revenue trend moderated to 17% drop; net profit grew 14% yoy

Key metrics: High-end jeweller Chow Tai Seng (CTS) released unaudited 25Q3E financial results on 29 Oct 2025:

• 25Q1–3E: Revenue from the first 9 months amounted to RMB6.77bn, down 37.3% yoy. Net profit in the period was RMB882m, up 3.1% yoy; with ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB853m, up 1.85% yoy.

• 25Q3E: Revenue from the third quarter arrived at RMB2.18bn, declining 16.7% yoy, a softer rate than in Q1 and Q2. Net profit was RMB288m, up 13.6% yoy; with ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB272m, up 7.7% yoy.

Revenue streams: better product mix; direct sales and ecommerce outperformed

CTS strengthened its directly-run store and ecommerce channels, increased its supplies of lightweight and value-for-money products, which led sales proportions to expand in the “self-indulgent” and costume jewelry segments. Channel wise, direct sales and ecommerce outperformed the total and turned their revenue growth trends around.

Q1–3 revenue perspectives:

Product categories:

• Plain gold jewelry: RMB4.94bn, down 44.4% yoy, as the gold price uptrend impacted plain gold products the most.

• Inlaid jewelry: RMB560m, down 4.9% yoy.

• Brand royalty fees: RMB570m, up 3.0% yoy.

Sales channels:

• Franchised stores: RMB3.34bn (down 56.3% yoy), 49% of total revenue;

• Ecommerce: RMB1.94bn (up 17.7% yoy), 29% of total revenue;

• Directly-run physical stores: RMB1.34bn (down 0.9% yoy), 20% of total revenue.

Q3 revenues by sales channel:

• Franchised stores: RMB920m, down 46.8% yoy;

• Ecommerce: RMB780m, up 68.2% yoy;

• Directly-run physical stores: RMB450m, up 15.7% yoy.

Store footprint: CTS has 4,675 physical stores in the end-market as of end 25Q3: comprising 4,275 franchised and 400 directly-run stores. In Q3, it closed 43 stores—36 directly-run and 7 franchised—a slower closure pace than in Q2. By end-H1, it had reduced the store network by 290 stores from the beginning of the year.

Margin expansion: Q3E gross margin up 1.0ppt to 28.5%, net margin up 3.5ppt

CTS attributes profitability improvements to a better product mix and the company’s pricing advantage amid a rising gold price.

Q3: Gross margin in the third quarter was 28.5%, up 1.0ppt yoy; with net margin at 13.2%, up 3.5ppt yoy. Gross margins by channel:

• Directly-run physical stores: 35.2%, roughly flat yoy;

• Ecommerce: 16.3%, down 17.5ppt yoy;

• Franchised stores: 33.5%, up 10.4ppt yoy.

Q1-3: Gross margin in the first 9 months came to 29.7%, up 9.2ppt yoy, while net margin was 13.0%, up 5.1ppt yoy. We look at a gross margin breakdown by channel:

• Directly-run physical stores: 35.1%, up 6.4ppt yoy;

• Ecommerce: 24.7%, down 6.3ppt yoy;

• Franchised stores: 27.9%, up 12.2ppt yoy.

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