致歐科技：強化產業鏈調整，盈利改善可期

公司發佈2025年三季報

25Q3公司實現收入20.4億元，同比+1.5%; 歸母凈利潤0.8億元，同比-23.3%; 扣非歸母凈利潤0.6億元，同比-36.0%;

25Q1-3公司實現收入60.8億元，同比+6.2%; 歸母凈利潤2.7億元，同比-2.1%; 扣非歸母凈利潤2.9億元，同比+11.0%。

Q3公司業績承壓，我們認為系前期美國關稅頻繁調整及東南亞產能落地周期影響仍存，長期來看伴隨對美出貨東南亞轉移落地、平台結構調整優化及SKU集中度提升，公司收入有望逐漸修復。

此外，公司積極提升尾程效能，在歐洲尾程配送環節已形成顯著價格優勢，並在此基礎上推動倉儲布局升級：由「德國一倉發全歐」迭代為「1個中心倉+N個前置倉」，持續加密前置倉網路、提升倉內作業效率; 美線業務同步加速追趕，通過多區域艙運網路優化及尾程賬號組合升級，實現整體配送效率與成本結構的雙優化; 我們預計後續綜合運營成本有望下降，利潤修復可期。

股票激勵目標清晰，彰顯經營信心

此前公司發佈2025年限制性股票激勵計劃（草案），擬向激勵對象授予權益總計不超過354.74萬股，占公司股本0.88%，授予價格為11.86元/股，本次激勵對象為包括董事、高級管理人員、核心技術及業務人員（包括外籍員工），不超過171人。

業績考核要求為：1）營業收入：以2024年為基數，2025/2026/2027年觸發值為增長率不低於10.99%/38.73%/59.54%，目標值為增長率不低於16.83%/46.03%/67.94%; 2）凈利潤：以2024年為基數，2026/2027年目標值為增長率不低於32.25%/52.09%，觸發值為增長率不低於25.64%/44.48%。

本次業績指標的設定充分考慮了各個歸屬期考核指標的可實現性及對公司員工的激勵效果，有利於調動員工的積極性、提升公司核心競爭力，同時彰顯管理層長遠發展的經營信心。

While lingering tariff effects and its production ramp-up impacted Q3 performance, the revenue recovery should gain momentum long-term, amid the shift in US shipments to Southeast Asia, its platform mix changes taking effect, and SKU concentration increases. We maintain our BUY call.

The gist: BUY

• Q3E net profit down on tariff impact and production ramp-up cycle

• Global warehousing: network boosts for last-mile deliveries to Europe and US

• Employee stock incentives demonstrate confidence in long-term growth

Q3E net profit declined on impact of tariff changes and production ramp-up cycle

Key metrics: Ziel Home Furnishing Technology released unaudited 25Q3E results on 28 Oct 2025:

• Q3E: Revenue was RMB2.04bn, up 1.5% yoy; net profit came to RMB80m, down 23.3 yoy, with ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB60m, down 36.0% yoy.

• Q1–3E: Revenue was RMB6.08bn, up 6.2% yoy; net profit was RMB270m, down 2.1% yoy; and ex-nonrecurring net profit was RMB290m, up 11.0% yoy.

Factors: We believe Q3 performance was pressured by lingering effects of the frequent US tariff adjustments and the ramp-up cycle of its Southeast Asian production capacities.

Outlook: We expect Ziel's revenue will recover over the long term, in view of the shift in US shipments to Southeast Asia, its platform mix changes taking effect, and SKU concentration increases.

Global warehousing: network boosts for last-mile deliveries to Europe and the US

Europe: Ziel improved efficiency in its European last-mile delivery business by optimizing the warehouse network and carving out a substantial price advantage. From having just one German warehouse delivering to all Europe, it upgraded the structure by adding a number of forward warehouses from its central warehouse. This tightened its forward warehouse network and raised warehouse operational efficiency.

US: Its US-bound business is also catching up, having achieved dual feats in optimizing total delivery efficiency and the cost structure. It did this by improving its multi-regional container shipping network and effecting last-mile account portfolio upgrades. We expect total operating cost will decline in the future with a profit recovery.

Employee stock incentives demonstrate confidence in long-term growth

Ziel had earlier released the draft of its 2025 restricted stock incentive plan, proposing to grant up to 3.5m shares in total to certain recipients. This is equivalent to 0.88% of the company’s share capital, with the grant share price at RMB11.86. The incentive recipients number up to 171 personnel such as directors, senior management, core technical and business personnel (including foreign employees).

Performance targets tied to the incentives:

• Operating revenue: Taking 2024 as the base year, the trigger growth rates for 2025/2026/2027 are at least 10.99%/38.73%/59.54%; with target growth rates of at least 16.83%/46.03%/67.94%.

• Net profit: Taking 2024 as the base year, the trigger growth rates for 2026/27 are at least 25.64%/44.48%, with target growth rates of at least 32.25%/52.09%.

As the performance metrics are designed according to their feasibility for each vesting period and take into account their incentive impact on the employees, it would likely motivate the employees and enhance the company’s core competitiveness. We believe it demonstrates management’s confidence in Ziel's long-term growth.

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