泡泡瑪特：25H1點評：盈利及獲利率超此前預期，會員大幅增長

事件：北京時間2025年8月19日，泡泡瑪特（09992. HK）發佈2025年中期業績報告。 公司2025年上半年實現營收138.8億元，同比增長204.4%，超市場預期; 分地區來看，2025年上半年公司中國（含港澳臺地區）實現營收82.8億元，同比增長135.2%; 海外（含亞太、美洲、歐洲及其他地區）實現營收55.9億元，同比增長440%，其中美洲實現十倍增長。 公司毛利率同比上升6.3pct至70.3%，主要系海外銷售佔比提升、產品設計優化及外采產品佔比下降; 淨盈利46.8億元，調整后凈盈利（剔除以股份為基礎的薪酬）達到47.1億元，較去年同期的10.2億元同比提升362.8%。

海外方面，歐美市場快速增長，全球化架構成效凸顯。2025年上半年，海外（含亞太、美洲、歐洲及其他地區）實現營收55.9億元，同比增長440%，海外市場保持高速增長。分地區來看，亞太/ 美洲/ 歐洲及其他收入分別達28.5/ 22.6/ 4.8 億元，同比分別增長257.8%/ 1142.3%/ 729.2%，佔海外總收入的51%/ 40%/ 9%。截至2025年6月30日，泡泡瑪特海外較去年同期凈增70家零售店至128家。其中，歐美兩大區域實現快速增長。 美洲市場聚焦美國，上半年凈增線下門店19家，達到41家，線下營收8.4億元，同比增長744.3%。歐洲市場繼續佈局全球知名地標，上半年凈增線下門店4家，達到18家，線下營收2.8億元，同比增長569.6%。亞太市場深化旅遊零售策略，佈局全球知名旅遊目的地以及機場，上半年凈增線下門店5家，達到69家，線下營收15.3億元，同比增長203.5%。 我們認為，下半年萬聖節、耶誕節等海外重要節日催化，建議持續關注歐美地區門店落地進展。

毛絨品類首次超過手辦品類，THE MONSTERS收入佔比35%，IP矩陣“一超多強”。2025年上半年，毛絨實現營收61.4億元，同比增長1276.2%，佔比44.2%，毛絨產品的營收佔比首次超越手辦產品。 手辦、MEGA、衍生品及其他品類分別實現營收51.8/ 10.1/ 15.5億元，產品結構更加多元均衡。 2025年上半年，THE MONSTERS實現營收48.1億元，同比提升668%，佔總收入34.7%，躋身世界級IP。 同時，泡泡瑪特旗下5大IP營收破10億元，13個IP營收破億元。 其中，MOLLY、SKULLPANDA分別實現營收13.6/ 12.2億元，IP矩陣“一超多強” 格局初定，降低單一IP依賴風險。 2025年上半年，泡泡瑪特在上海開設了HIRONO小野品牌首店，品類涵蓋潮玩、服飾、藝術生活家居、雕塑等; 並先後於成都SKP、北京SKP-S開設了POP MART COLLECTION臻藏店，精準卡位高端消費場域; 6月，泡泡瑪特旗下珠寶品牌popop在上海恆隆廣場和北京國貿商城正式開業。 公司多元化挖掘IP價值，LABUBU大電影及劇集的有序推出，或進一步拓寬IP內容邊界。

國內方面，渠道運營效率提升，會員規模持續擴大。 2025年上半年，中國（含港澳臺地區）實現營收82.8億元，同比增長135.2%。 中國線下渠道收入實現50.84億元，同比增長117.1%。 其中，零售店/機器人商店分別實現44.06/ 6.78億元營收，同比提升119.9%/100.9%，零售店凈增44家達443家（含港澳臺的34家）。 中國線上渠道收入實現29.37億元，同比增長212.2%。 其中，泡泡瑪特抽盒機/ 天貓旗艦店/ 抖音平臺/ 其他線上渠道分別實現11.25/ 6.58/ 5.61/ 5.93億元營收，同比提升181.9%/230.7%/168.6%/343.5%。 截至2025年6月30日，中國內地累計註冊會員總數由4608萬人增至5912萬人，新增註冊會員數1304萬人。 2025上半年會員貢獻銷售佔比91.2%，會員復購率為50.8%。 我們認為，隨著全球渠道的持續擴張、IP及產品種類的不斷豐富，會員規模有望加速增長。

With revenue doubling and net profit tripling yoy in 25H1E, we reckon Pop Mart’s IP channel expansion will continue to contribute incremental profits. We remain bullish about its IP operational knowhow and monetization potential for the long term, and maintain our BUY rating.

The gist: BUY

• 25H1E revenue doubled and net profit tripled, as global footprint expands

• Plush toys outperformed action figures; The Monsters drove 35% of revenue

• Greater China: operational channel efficiency; growing membership

25H1E results: revenue doubled and net profit tripled as global footprint expands

Market regions: Pop Mart released unaudited 25H1E results with revenue of RMB13.88bn, up 204.4%, better than the market had expected. A breakdown shows:

• Greater China: RMB8.28bn, up 135.2% yoy.

• Foreign markets: RMB5.59bn, up 440% yoy; where the Americas grew tenfold.

Profitability:

• Gross margin widened 6.3ppt yoy to 70.3%, as foreign market sales proportion grew, alongside product design optimization and a smaller proportion of outsourced products.

• Net profit was RMB4.68bn; while non-IFRS net profit (excluding share-based compensation) shot up 362.8% yoy to RMB4.71bn (from RMB1.02bn in 24H1).

Foreign markets: effective global buildout led Europe and Americas growth spikes

Total revenue, comprising Asia Pacific, the Americas, and Europe and other regions, amounted to RMB5.59bn in the first half of 2025, up 440% yoy, as Pop Mart maintained its rapid international market expansion. A breakdown shows:

• Asia Pacific: RMB2.85bn, up 257.8% yoy; contributing 51% of foreign revenue.

• The Americas: RMB2.26bn, up 1,142.3% yoy; contributing 40%.

• Europe and other regions: RMB480m, up 729.2% yoy, accounting for 9%.

Store footprint: Pop Mart net added 70 retail stores overseas to a total of 128 as of 30 June 2025, particularly across Europe and the US. A breakdown shows:

• The Americas: 19 offline stores were added in 25H1 to a total of 41, which generated RMB840m revenue, up 744.3% yoy.

• Europe: With expansion to well known landmarks, its European offline store network net added 4 to a total of 18 stores in 25H1, which contributed RMB280m revenue, up 569.6% yoy.

• Asia Pacific: Fleshing out a travel retail strategy, Pop Mart expanded to well known destinations and airports by adding 5 to a total of 69 stores, contributing RMB1.53bn revenue, up 203.5% yoy.

• 25H2E outlook: We expect major international holidays like Halloween and Christmas will drive growth in the second half of the year, and we suggest investors monitor store developments in Europe and the US.

Plush toys outperformed action figures; The Monsters contributed 35% of revenue

Rather than a flagship IP focus, the company increased diversity toward a more balanced product mix of many major IP characters.

Product segments:

• Plush toys generated revenue of RMB6.14bn in 25H1, and drove a growth spike of 1,276.2% yoy, accounting for 44.2% of total revenue; the category outperformed action figures in revenue share for the first time.

• Action figures generated RMB5.18bn revenue.

• Mega collections of supersized IP characters contributed RMB1.01bn.

• Other merchandise categories: RMB1.55bn.

Strategic shift from flagship to several major IPs:

• The Monster characters generated 34.7% of revenue at RMB4.81bn in 25H1, up 668% yoy, affirming their global IP appeal.

• 5 major Pop Mart IPs surpassed RMB1bn in revenue each, with Molly posting RMB1.36bn and Skullpanda RMB1.22bn.

• 13 IPs each contributed more than RMB100m in revenue.

Content diversity: 25H1 marked the start of Pop Mart’s strategic refocus as it reduced reliance on flagship IPs toward a mixed portfolio of strong IPs instead:

• Pop Mart opened its first Hirono store in Shanghai with a wide range of products in the first half of 2025, including trendy toys, apparel, art and lifestyle home décor, and sculptures.

• It opened Pop Mart Collection stores in Chengdu SKP and Beijing SKP-S, targeting high-end consumers.

• Pop Mart’s jewelry brand, Popop, opened in Shanghai’s Plaza 66 and Beijing’s China World Mall in June 2025.

• The company continued to diversify IP content with the smooth rollout of Labubu feature films and TV series.

Greater China: enhanced operational channel efficiency; growing membership

Greater China revenue from mainland of China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan amounted to RMB8.28bn in 25H1, up 135.2% yoy.

Offline: The company generated RMB5.08bn from Greater China physical POS, up 117.1% yoy. Pop Mart added 44 retail stores to a total of 443 (including the addition of 34 across Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan):

• Retail stores contributed RMB4.41bn (up 119.9% yoy); and

• Roboshops contributed RMB678m (up 100.9% yoy).

Online: Revenue from Greater China online sales were RMB2.94bn, up 212.2% yoy:

• WeWe Play app: RMB1.125bn, up 181.9% yoy;

• Tmall flagship store: RMB658m, up 230.7% yoy;

• Douyin: RMB561m, up 168.6% yoy;

• Other online channels: RMB593m, up 343.5% yoy.

Membership: The number of registered Pop Mart members grew from 46.08m to 59.12m in mainland of China as of 30 June 2025, as 13.04m new members joined. Members contributed 91.2% of sales in 25H1, with a member repurchase rate of 50.8%. We believe that as Pop Mart expands its global business, and enriches its IP character and category offerings, its membership will keep growing quickly.

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