大数跨境
0
0

好太太:調整措施逐步見效

好太太:調整措施逐步見效 天风国际
2025-11-06
1
导读:天風國際堅定深度研究,A股精品投研揚帆海外。

好太太

Guangdong Hotata Technology Group

(603848 CH)


調整措施逐步見效

D/g to ACCUMULATE: 22% net profit growth in Q3 demonstrates effectiveness of marginal adjustments

增持(调低评级

ACCUMULATE (from BUY)

投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

公司發佈三季報

公司25Q3營收4億同增7%,歸母凈利0.6億同增22%,扣非后歸母凈利0.6億同增22%。


公司25Q1-3營收11億同減1%,歸母凈利1.4億同減25%,扣非后歸母凈利1.4億同減27%。


公司緊扣主業,以技術反覆運算對沖需求收縮,用渠道結構優化提升動銷效率,以效率提升攤薄成本,在逆風里穩住經營基本盤,公司單季實現增長,顯示出一定邊際改善,表明前期調整措施正逐步見效。


25Q3毛利環比改善,源於行業價格競爭趨緩。上半年需求偏弱疊加政策價格錨點,市場短時承壓,公司適度調整售價以保障份額; 隨著階段性外部因素消退、同業價格逐步回歸理性,公司憑藉穩定規模與成本攤銷優勢,實現毛利溫和修復。


從渠道來看,線上渠道在鞏固傳統電商優勢的基礎上,積極佈局抖音等新興內容電商平台,聚焦新品類孵化,通過直播、短視頻等內容營銷持續提升用户與品牌影響力,上半年電商收入穩定,穩居行業線上第一。


線下渠道同步發力,圍繞「開疆煥新」「零售標杆城市打造」及直營模式轉型,精準招商強化區域覆蓋,深化與家電渠道、新零售平台及京東萬商等新渠道佈局,全面推進門店管理標準化,提升終端零售運營質量,已初見成效。


未來線下增量空間主要來自消費者對該品類認知的加深、經濟水平提高,智能類產品佔比會上升,傳統手搖產品有望逐步讓渡空間,帶來持續換新需求。 另一方面,晾曬形態正向隱形、嵌入、集成等多元方向演進,產品迭代將為用戶創造新的更新契機。


從產品來看,公司聚焦智能家居賽道,通過優化產品結構,加大對智能家居產品的推廣與銷售,智能家居產品銷售佔比超85%,競爭力凸顯。 圍繞「用戶場景—行為—痛點」鏈條,公司把多功能集成、品類延伸與組合套系化做成系統化打法,覆蓋從入門到旗艦的全價格帶,並反向牽引技術迭代; 同時持續抬高研發強度,搭建“用戶反饋—數據沉澱—產品企劃”的閉環機制。


在盈利能力方面,大宗原材料價格整體平穩,公司依託完善、穩定的供應鏈體系,持續通過集中採購、議價統籌等手段,確保成本端可控。同時,公司堅持以技術革新為引領,不斷優化產品結構與生產效率,推動銷售毛利率和凈獲利率穩步修復。 未來,公司將繼續深化供應鏈協同,強化成本管理,並通過技術創新持續帶動盈利能力的提升。


Despite the headwinds, Hotata drove Q3 growth by firming business fundamentals. It deployed tech iterations to offset demand contraction, tightened the channel mix to lift sales efficiency, and leveraged efficiencies to dilute costs. On macro factors, we downgrade our call to ACCUMULATE.


The gist: ACCUMULATE

  • 25Q3E revenue up 7%, net profit up 22%; iterations, channel mix, efficiencies

  • O2O channels: highest ecommerce revenue in H1; wider physical footprint

  • Smart home products: mix and price; wide-ranging, user-centric R&D strategy


25Q3E revenue up 7%, net profit up 22%; iterations, channel mix, efficiency boosts

Guangdong Hotata Technology released unaudited 25Q3E financial results on 22 Oct 2025. Here are the key metrics:

  • 25Q3E: Revenue for the third quarter arrived at RMB382.3m, up 7% yoy; while net profit was RMB57.05m, up 22% yoy, with ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB57.14m, up 22% yoy.

  • 25Q1–3E: Revenue was RMB1.06bn, down 1% yoy; its net profit was RMB143.22m, down 25% yoy; ex-nonrecurring net profit was RMB139.18m, down 27% yoy.


Q3 focus: Faced with macro headwinds, Hotata focused on stabilizing operational fundamentals: using technological iterations to offset demand contraction, tightening the channel structure to raise sales efficiency, and leveraging efficiency gains to dilute costs. This approach led to quarterly growth, demonstrating the effectiveness of marginal improvements, while previous adjustment measures gradually took effect.


Profitability: Gross margin expanded qoq in 25Q3 as price competition moderated in the industry. Weak demand in H1, coupled with policy-driven price anchors, added to market pressures, prompting Hotata to soften selling prices to safeguard its market share. In Q3, as these temporary macro factors subsided and competitor prices gradually returned to rational levels, the company leveraged its stable scale and cost amortization advantages to bring about a moderate recovery in gross margin.


O2O channels: highest ecommerce revenue in H1; expanding physical footprint

Online business: Hotata consolidated its long-held ecommerce edge in the quarter by expanding into emerging ecommerce content platforms like Douyin (China’s TikTok). The company is incubating new product categories, while enhancing user and brand reach through content marketing media, such as livestreams and short videos. As a result, Hotata’s business was stable, and it topped industry ecommerce revenues in 25H1.


Offline business: The physical market also made headway, as Hotata pushed a three-pronged strategy: renewal and expansion into new market regions; creating benchmark retail cities; and transitioning to a direct-sales model.

  • Market coverage: With precisely targeted merchant promotions, the company strengthened market region coverage and built out new channels. Across its home appliance channels and new retail platforms such as JD Wanshang, efforts to standardize store management and lift the quality of end-market retail operations have yielded initial results.

  • Outlook: We reckon Hotata’s future growth potential in physical retail sales will stem from deepening consumer awareness of the smart product category, alongside rising economic standards. The proportion of smart products would likely increase as manually operated products gradually cede market share, driving sustainable replacement demand. Laundry drying racks are evolving toward concealed, built-in and integrated designs, as product iterations keep adding new upgrade opportunities for consumers.


Smart home products: mix and price; comprehensive user-centric R&D strategy

Product mix: The company’s core business of smart home products has grown to account for more than 85% of sales, as it continues to hone its competitive edge by improving the product mix, and boosting sales and promotions.


User-focused R&D: With a systemized approach to the product development cycle that covers user scenarios, behavior and the potential pain points, Hotata offers multifunctional integration, category expansion, and suite-based products. This strategy drives technological iteration and covers the full price spectrum from entry-level to flagship products. The elevated R&D intensity meshes with a closed-loop mechanism of user feedback, data accumulation and product planning.


Costs and profitability:

Cost considerations: Prices of Hotata’s bulk raw materials are generally stable, and the company also has a robust full-coverage and stable supply chain system. It ensures cost control through centralized procurements and strategic price negotiations.


Margins: Committed to technological innovation, the company continually optimizes product mix and production efficiency to improve sales gross and net margins. Looking ahead, it aims to deepen supply chain collaborations, strengthen cost management, and lift profitability through technological innovations.


投資建議/Investment Ideas


調整盈利預測,调整为增持”评级

基於25Q1-3財務表現,我們調整盈利預測,預計公司25-27年歸母凈利分別為2.0/2.4/2.8億元(前值為2.1/2.5/2.9億元),對應PE分別為41/35/29x。


Valuation and risks

Based on Hotata’s financial performance over 25Q1-3, we lowered our financial forecast to net profit of RMB201m/240m/283m for 2025/26/27E (from RMB210m/250m/290m), which imply 41x/35x/29x PE. We downgrade our rating to ACCUMULATE from BUY.


風險提示:市場競爭風險; 家居消費環境低迷; 新品開發不及預期風險等。


Risks include: competitive risks; a sluggish home furnishing consumer market; and worse-than-expected new product development.



Email: research@tfisec.com

TFI research report website: 

(pls scan the QR code)



文件由天風國際證券集團有限公司天風國際證券與期貨有限公司(證監會中央編號:BAV573)及天風國際資產管理有限公司(證監會中央編號:ASF056)(合稱“天風國際集團”)編制,所載資料可能以若干假設為基礎,僅供作非商業用途及參考之用途,會因經濟、市場及其他情況而隨時更改而毋須另行通知。任何媒體、網站或個人未經授權不得轉載、連結、轉貼或以其他方式複製發表本檔及任何內容。已獲授權者,在使用本檔或任何內容時必須注明稿件來源於天風國際集團,並承諾遵守相關法例及一切使用的國際慣例,不為任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本檔,違者將依法追究相關法律責任。本檔所引用之資料或資料可能得自協力廠商,天風國際集團將盡可能確認資料來源之可靠性,但天風國際集團並不對協力廠商所提供資料或資料之準確性負責。且天風國際集團不會就本檔所載任何資料、預測及/或意見的公平性、準確性、時限性、完整性或正確性,以及任何該等預測及/或意見所依據的基準作出任何明文或暗示的保證、陳述、擔保或承諾而負責或承擔任何法律責任。本檔中如有類似前瞻性陳述之內容,此等內容或陳述不得視為對任何將來表現之保證,且應注意實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。本檔並非及不應被視為邀約、招攬、邀請、建議買賣任何投資產品或投資決策之依據,亦不應被詮釋為專業意見。閱覽本文件的人士或在作出任何投資決策前,應完全瞭解其風險以及有關法律、賦稅及會計的特點及後果,並根據個人的情況決定投資是否切合個人的投資目標,以及能否承擔有關風險,必要時應尋求適當的專業意見。投資涉及風險。敬請投資者注意,證券及投資的價值可升亦可跌,過往的表現不一定可以預示日後的表現。在若干國家,傳閱及分派本檔的方式可能受法律或規例所限制。獲取本檔的人士須知悉及遵守該等限制。


Image

【声明】内容源于网络
0
0
天风国际
天风国际是天风证券境外全资子公司,立志于成为全球资产配置专家,用我们的专业专注力连接中外,为海内外客户寻找最优质资产和提供最专业的投资咨询。
内容 3453
粉丝 0
天风国际 天风国际是天风证券境外全资子公司,立志于成为全球资产配置专家,用我们的专业专注力连接中外,为海内外客户寻找最优质资产和提供最专业的投资咨询。
总阅读2.9k
粉丝0
内容3.5k