歐派家居
Oppein Home Group
(603833 CH)
圍繞“大家居”多管齊下優化運營
25Q3E profit down on macro weakness; Oppein pushes strategic measures under whole-home furnishing strategy
|
買入(維持評級) BUY (maintain)
|
投資要點/Investment Thesis
投資要點/Investment Thesis
公司發佈2025年三季報
公司25Q3營收50億同減6%,歸母凈利8億同減22%,扣非后歸母凈利7.7億同減22%;
公司25Q1-3營收132億同減5%,歸母凈利18億同減10%,扣非后歸母凈利17億同減3%。
當前,定製家居行業普遍面臨增長壓力,需求弱增長壓制企業盈利空間。 從主要定製家居上市企業三季度表現看,多數企業營收下滑幅度有所擴大。
面對行業挑戰,公司圍繞“大家居”戰略,實施與之匹配的營銷組織變革、供應鏈改革、“分田到戶”激勵機制改革、打造製造開放式平台及交付體系改革等核心舉措。 儘管本期凈利率面臨階段性壓力,但公司盈利能力保持穩健,體現公司在嚴峻市場環境下的抗風險韌性與綜合競爭優勢。
供應鏈改革成效顯現,盈利能力持續提升
2025年以來房地產投資端、竣工端、銷售端均呈現同比下降趨勢,給下游定製家居行業帶來直接衝擊,疊加行業內部競爭加劇、流量碎片化的挑戰。 2025年1-9月公司毛利率 37.19%,同增1.65個百分點,提升主要來源:
(1)大供應鏈改革:通過大供應鏈體系改革,實現採購成本的最優化,規模化戰略採購的效益由此得到進一步釋放;
(2)生產效率升級:深化智能化和數字化建設,持續推進生產全流程智能化,融入 AI 技術與自動化設備,實現生產效率與整體運營效率雙提升;
(3)交付體系改革:重構全鏈路模式,釋放協同價值。通過工序迭代與技術集成,打造敏捷交付體系,增強市場回應與成本競爭力;
(4)有效的內部人力資源管控:以精細管理實現效能與成本雙優。通過“動態配置+機制革新+剛性管控”三維發力,實現組織效能提升與人工成本優化的有機統一。
對2025年全年毛利率、凈利率的展望情況,毛利率方面:目前承壓前行,力爭穩健,在當前市場環境下,收入規模的變化導致固定成本攤薄壓力增大,公司將不斷對沖壓力,加速業務模式轉型,持續推進大家居戰略,對內向管理要效率、深化改革,部分抵消成本影響。
淨利率方面:短期承壓,費用投入效率優先為原則。綜上來看,2024年下半年公司的基數比較高,2025年公司毛利率和凈利率都面臨一定壓力,公司會採取堅定的應對策略,減弱市場波動對經營的干擾。
It was a volatile Q3 for the customizable home furnishing market and most major players saw their revenues erode. Oppein is no exception, though its resilience shows in a buoyant gross margin over the first 3 quarters, as it drove upgrades under a whole-home strategy. We maintain our BUY call.
The gist: BUY
25Q3E revenue down 6% and net profit down 22%; robust profitability
Supply chain measures achieved results and profitability improved
2025E margin outlook: going for stability in a volatile market
25Q3E revenue down 6% and net profit down 22%; robust profitability
Key financials: Oppein’s unaudited 25Q3E results demonstrate resilience, in our view:
Q3E revenue came to RMB5.0bn, down 6% yoy; with net profit at RMB814m, down 22% yoy; and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB770m, down 22% yoy.
Q1–3E revenue slipped 5% yoy to RMB13.2bn; with net profit at RMB1.8bn, down 10% yoy, and ex-nonrecurring net profit dipping 3% yoy to RMB1.7bn.
Industry: Sluggish demand growth has squeezed corporate profit margins and subjected the customizable home furnishing industry to growth pressure. Most of the major listed customizable home furnishing companies in the third quarter witnessed revenue erosion.
Company: On its part, Oppein dealt with the macro challenges by pushing key measures that align with its whole-home furnishing strategy. It set up an open manufacturing platform, while restructuring systems such as marketing, the supply chain, and deliveries, as well as an incentive mechanism based on the accountability of each business unit. The company’s resilience was evident as it achieved robust profitability in spite of net margin pressures, a demonstration not only of its resilience, but also its broad competitive advantages.
Supply chain measures achieved results and profitability improved
Real estate investments, completions, and sales trends have been declining yoy in 2025, which have impacted the downstream industry of customizable home furnishings. Compounding the pressures, competition in the sector has intensified, alongside the challenge of tapping fragmented customer traffic. Yet, Oppein managed to expand gross margin by 1.65ppt yoy to 37.19% in the first 9 months of 2025.
We attribute four key areas that have been effective:
1) Extensive supply chain revamp: The comprehensive supply chain restructure improved procurement cost savings and large-scale strategic procurements also unlocked other benefits.
2) Production efficiency upgrades: In deepening the digitalization restructure and smart system buildout, it advanced full-process production automation with the integration of AI technology and automated equipment, which enhanced both production efficiency and total operational efficiency.
3) Delivery system restructure: The company reconstructed the end-to-end chain model to unlock collaborative value. Through process iteration and technology integration, Oppein set up a nimble delivery system that enhances market responsiveness and cost competitiveness.
4) Human resource management: Efficiency and costs both improved as a result of close management. It leveraged a three-pronged strategy of dynamic allocations, mechanism innovations and firm control to organically drive the integration of organizational efficiency upgrades and labor cost savings.
2025E margin outlook: going for stability in a volatile market
Gross margin: To navigate the current challenging market, where revenue scale fluctuations amplify fixed-cost dilution pressures, Oppein intends to accelerate the restructure of its business model and will continue to advance its integrated home furnishing strategy by raising internal management efficiency and deepening reforms to partially offset cost impacts.
Net margin: To handle short-term pressures, the company believes cost-efficiency takes priority in expense allocations.
Overall: As the 24H2 high base exerts pressure for both gross and net margin growth trends for 2025E, the company intends to tighten its strategy to mitigate the impact of market volatility on operations.
投資建議/Investment Ideas
調整盈利預測,維持“買入”評級
基於25Q1-3業績表現,考慮當前家居經營環境,我們調整盈利預測,預計25-27 年歸母凈利潤分別為24.7/26.6/29.2億元(前值分別為26.8/28.9/31.7億元)。
Forecast and risks
In view of Oppein’s 25Q1–3E performance and current home furnishing industry challenges, we lower our net profit forecast to RMB2.47bn/2.66bn/2.92bn for 2025/26/27E (from RMB2.68bn/2.89bn/3.17bn). We maintain our BUY rating.
風險提示:內需消費不及預期,接單不及預期,國補政策推進不及預期,供應鏈改革推進緩慢等。
Risks include: weaker-than-expected Chinese demand; a lower order intake than expected; implementation of Chinese subsidy policies falling short of expectations; and a slower pace of supply chain reforms than expected.
Email: research@tfisec.com
TFI research report website:
(pls scan the QR code)
本文件由天風國際證券集團有限公司, 天風國際證券與期貨有限公司(證監會中央編號:BAV573)及天風國際資產管理有限公司(證監會中央編號:ASF056)(合稱“天風國際集團”)編制,所載資料可能以若干假設為基礎,僅供作非商業用途及參考之用途,會因經濟、市場及其他情況而隨時更改而毋須另行通知。任何媒體、網站或個人未經授權不得轉載、連結、轉貼或以其他方式複製發表本檔及任何內容。已獲授權者,在使用本檔或任何內容時必須注明稿件來源於天風國際集團,並承諾遵守相關法例及一切使用的國際慣例,不為任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本檔,違者將依法追究相關法律責任。本檔所引用之資料或資料可能得自協力廠商,天風國際集團將盡可能確認資料來源之可靠性,但天風國際集團並不對協力廠商所提供資料或資料之準確性負責。且天風國際集團不會就本檔所載任何資料、預測及/或意見的公平性、準確性、時限性、完整性或正確性,以及任何該等預測及/或意見所依據的基準作出任何明文或暗示的保證、陳述、擔保或承諾而負責或承擔任何法律責任。本檔中如有類似前瞻性陳述之內容,此等內容或陳述不得視為對任何將來表現之保證,且應注意實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。本檔並非及不應被視為邀約、招攬、邀請、建議買賣任何投資產品或投資決策之依據,亦不應被詮釋為專業意見。閱覽本文件的人士或在作出任何投資決策前,應完全瞭解其風險以及有關法律、賦稅及會計的特點及後果,並根據個人的情況決定投資是否切合個人的投資目標,以及能否承擔有關風險,必要時應尋求適當的專業意見。投資涉及風險。敬請投資者注意,證券及投資的價值可升亦可跌,過往的表現不一定可以預示日後的表現。在若干國家,傳閱及分派本檔的方式可能受法律或規例所限制。獲取本檔的人士須知悉及遵守該等限制。

