美联储降息对沙特经济影响｜GTC泽汇首席分析师Jameel做客Al Arabiya

Al Arabiya: Well, let's find out more now about the possible impact of this Fed decision on the Saudi economy. I'm here in the studio with Jameel Ahmad, who is a global markets commentator and chief analyst at GTCFX. Thank you very much indeed for joining us, Jameel. Not the first time we've spoken. Great to have you back. So, we've seen the US Central Bank finally making that decision after a lot of pressure, a lot of speculation and calls from the Trump administration as well to cut interest rates. What's taken them so long to do this, do you think? And what impact is this going to have on Saudi Arabia?

Al Arabiya（阿拉比亚电视台）：现在我们来进一步分析美联储这个决定可能对沙特经济产生的影响。今天我们演播室请到了「GTC泽汇」全球市场评论员兼首席分析师Jameel Ahmad。非常感谢您再次来到节目。我们已经多次交流，很高兴又一次邀请到您。我们看到美国央行在承受巨大压力、经历诸多猜测以及特朗普政府多次呼吁后，终于做出了降息决定。您认为他们为什么花了这么长时间？这对沙特又会产生什么影响？

GTC Group: Let's start with Saudi Arabia first. If we're looking at the 2030 strategic vision, obviously now we're in the final five years of that path. Lower interest rates are beneficial for investment. We have so many companies and international expatriates and so forth who are relocating to Riyadh and Saudi Arabia, so lower interest rates are a benefit there. We also have the Saudi stock market as emerging markets and the Saudi Arabian economy and market is opening up. We're seeing tremendous increases in sentiment for the Tadwal and the Saudi Arabian stock market as a whole. That trend is likely to continue now that the US Central Bank has indicated that it will continue to lower interest rates over the upcoming period. In terms of why the Central Bank waited so long in 2025, we have to remember they were very active in 2024 with multiple interest rate cuts. It actually comes down to the Trump administration and the tariff uncertainty. The Fed were always on course to lower interest rates this year. But what's actually put a pause on that button is the tariff uncertainty, which of course we have those tariffs that were introduced in April in terms of what the tariff rates would be. But we had so many renegotiations, changing deadlines, and actually the line in the sand in terms of the final figures on what those tariff rates will be didn't come out and be official until August. So the Fed were waiting to see what impact it would have on the US economy, the uncertainty that this would bring on for businesses, and basically the US Central Bank were none of the wiser in terms of knowing what the Trump administration would agree on, like everybody else, all businesses, industries, economies and so forth. That's essentially why they waited. But it's put some pressure on the Central Bank, a lot of expectations now that maybe they've moved too late because you've got some softening of US economic data, you've also got some weakness when it comes to US economic industries and so forth. At the same time, there was nothing the Fed could do but wait to see what the impact would be.

GTC泽汇：我们先从沙特谈起。目前我们正处于2030战略愿景的最后五年阶段。低利率有利于促进投资。现在有大量企业、国际外派人员等正迁往利雅得和沙特，低利率在这方面是个利好。同时，沙特股市作为新兴市场，其经济和市场正在逐步开放。我们看到塔达武尔指数和沙特股市整体情绪显著提升。随着美国央行暗示未来将继续降息，这一趋势很可能会延续。关于央行为什么在2025年迟迟不行动，需要回顾2024年他们曾多次降息，相当活跃。这其实与特朗普政府的关税政策不确定性有关。美联储今年本就计划降息，但真正让他们暂停行动的是关税的不确定性。虽然四月份公布了关税税率，但后续经历了多轮重新谈判、截止日期变更，直到八月份才最终确定具体税率。所以美联储一直在观察这种不确定性会对美国经济和企业产生什么影响。实际上，和其他企业、行业、经济体一样，央行也无法预知特朗普政府会达成什么协议。这基本上是他們等待的原因。但这也给央行带来压力，现在很多人认为他们行动过晚，因为美国经济数据已经显现疲软，部分产业出现弱势。不过当时美联储除了等待观察影响外，确实别无他法。

Al Arabiya: Okay, so we've had a weaker US dollar, I think it's fair to say, throughout the course of 2025. And I'm just wondering to myself, and listening to what you're saying there, does that, do you think, bring opportunities to Saudi Arabia?

Al Arabiya（阿拉比亚电视台）：可以说，整个2025年美元走势都比较疲软。听您刚才的分析，这是否会给沙特带来机遇？

GTC Group: It does. If you look at the hub now of Saudi Arabia, international events, expos and so forth have taken place. If you're an international traveller going into Saudi Arabia, you're having tremendous discounts. For example, the euro has strengthened by around 10% and above against the US dollar this year. This means if you're travelling from Europe now to Saudi Arabia, you're basically getting a discount on your visit. At the same time, if you're looking at it from our perspectives, but those who actually reside in the Middle East and the GCC, clearly, we're not able to send as much money back home as perhaps we were used to. But there's an opportunity here to help the domestic economy grow. If you're looking at the non-GDP government revenues have increased by around – sorry, they're up 49% above a year ago where it was 40%. Actually, non-GDP revenues over the second quarter grew by 6.6% on an annualised basis. And with the upcoming Saudi national holiday that's taken place, opportunities for retail sales, consumer spending and so forth, there's opportunities for the likes of us who are expatriates now to help the GCC economies and the Saudi economy grow as well.

GTC泽汇：确实如此。看看沙特现在的枢纽地位，各类国际活动和博览会相继在这里举办。如果您是前往沙特的国际旅客，现在相当于享受很大折扣。例如今年欧元对美元升值约10%以上，这意味着从欧洲前往沙特的旅行成本实际上降低了。同时，从我们中东及海湾地区居民的视角来看，虽然往境外汇款的金额可能不如以往，但这也为促进国内经济增长提供了机会。非石油政府收入同比增长了49%，需要更正一下此前数据是40%。实际上第二季度非石油收入年化增长率为6.6%。加上即将到来的沙特国庆假期带来的零售和消费机会，现在我们这些外籍人士也能为海湾地区和沙特的经济增长贡献力量。

Al Arabiya: Okay. So, if supposing the Saudi rial continues to weaken and the probability of the dollar is going to continue that trend of weakening as well, what other benefits could we see that translating to for the Saudi economy?

Al Arabiya（阿拉比亚电视台）：那么，如果沙特里亚尔继续走弱，美元也可能维持贬值趋势，这对沙特经济还会产生哪些其他利好？

GTC Group: Well, let's look at what's taking place now already. You have international businesses setting up headquarters, setting up hubs and continuing to employ in Saudi Arabia. Now that the Saudi currency with the US dollar is in line to continue to weaken, there's more opportunities there through the lower interest rates to continue to invest in the local economy, continue to grow international hubs and so forth out of Riyadh. That's a trend that I think is already starting to take place and is more likely than not going to continue. Because if you look at the US central bank expectations now, we're expecting multiple more interest rate cuts in light with the sudden weakness in US economic data, mainly on the jobs front. But as we know, jobs and consumer spending are such a key element of the US economy. It's the biggest contributor to consumer spending of the GDP. So, with that likely to weaken, that means there will be more focus on lower interest rates, which brings more opportunities in Saudi Arabia because those interest rates will also get lower and that's more incentive for international businesses to continue investing in the region.

GTC泽汇：我们可以看看已经在发生的情况。国际企业正在沙特设立总部、建立枢纽并持续招聘。现在沙特货币随美元一同走弱，加上低利率环境，为投资当地经济、在利雅得发展国际枢纽等创造了更多机会。我认为这个趋势已经开始，而且很可能会持续下去。因为目前市场预期，鉴于美国经济数据突然疲软，主要在就业方面，美联储还会进一步降息。而我们知道，就业和消费支出是美国经济的关键组成部分，是GDP中消费支出的最大贡献者。因此，如果这方面走弱，就意味着政策将更关注降低利率，这会给沙特带来更多机遇，因为当地的利率也会随之下降，从而进一步激励国际企业在该地区投资。

Al Arabiya: Okay. And obviously, the world is deeply interconnected. Just talk us through some of the themes that Saudi investors should watch out for during the remainder of 2025 and what this could all mean for the Saudi economy.

Al Arabiya（阿拉比亚电视台）：显然世界是深度互联的。请您谈谈在2025年剩下的时间里，沙特投资者应该关注哪些主题，以及这一切对沙特经济可能意味着什么。

GTC Group: Well, we've already mentioned the interest rate expectations. That's going to remain an ongoing theme. What we're looking out for now, though, is we mentioned the uncertainty that the tariff support to the world economy. Now that we actually have those tariff rates being finalised and some key negotiations are taking place with certain economies, we're going to start to see how this is impacting economic data. Because at the moment, all we've had over the past six months is uncertainty. Naturally, for the world economy, uncertainty is never a benefit. However, now that we have those tariff rates that are being finalised and some are actually being finalised at much lower tariff levels than what was threatened in early April, this means the economic sentiment should start to improve in light of continuity. And this is something I think will also bring opportunities to the GCC and the Saudi economy, because you've already got so many businesses that are setting up hub in Saudi Arabia. That's going to continue. But if we have a more stable global economic environment, naturally, this brings more stability to the economic sentiment in the region as well.

GTC泽汇：我们已经提到了利率预期，这仍将是一个持续的主题。不过我们现在关注的是关税政策给世界经济带来的不确定性。既然现在关税税率已经最终确定，并且与一些经济体的关键谈判正在进行，我们将开始看到这对经济数据的影响。因为过去六个月里，我们面对的只有不确定性。当然，对全球经济而言，不确定性从来不是好事。不过，现在最终确定的关税水平，实际上比四月初威胁的水平要低得多，这意味着经济情绪应该会随着政策的明朗而改善。我认为这也将为海湾合作委员会国家和沙特经济带来机遇，因为已经有很多企业在这里设立枢纽，这一趋势还会继续。如果我们有一个更稳定的全球经济环境，自然也会让本地区的经济情绪更加稳定。

Al Arabiya: Okay, time for you to get your crystal ball out and give us an outlook for the rest of the year 2025. And in turn, how you think whatever you're going to tell us will impact the Saudi economy?

Al Arabiya（阿拉比亚电视台）：现在请您预测一下2025年剩余时间的走势，以及您认为这将如何影响沙特经济？

GTC Group: Essentially, what we're looking for now is more continuity, because 2025 has been very much up in the air. And it's been like watching a TV drama and so forth, seeing so many plot twists, we're seeing so many narratives change. Now we're going to start to get more of a steady ship. This steady ship is therefore going to be more about promoting economic continuity for everybody. But for the region too, this is going to be a benefit because businesses can now begin to, I would say, anticipate what 2026 and the final five years of the 2020s are going to bring. Of course, this naturally fits in with the 2030 vision where there's a lot of ambitions, but those ambitions are going to be, I would say, more in line to be met with global economic sentiment being more stable.

GTC泽汇：简单来说，我们现在最需要的是更稳定的政策环境。2025年一直充满不确定性，就像看一部剧情曲折的电视剧，见证了太多反转和变化。现在我们即将迎来更平稳的阶段。这种稳定性将有利于促进经济的持续发展。对本地区来说，这也是一个利好，因为企业现在可以更好地展望2026年以及2020年代最后五年的前景。当然，这自然与2030愿景相契合，虽然目标宏大，但在全球经济情绪更稳定的情况下，这些目标将更有可能实现。

Al Arabiya: Okay, and just lastly, I wanted to ask you about gold, because it's had a pretty eventful year, hasn't it? I mean, up about 40% since the start of the year. I think one ounce is now at about US$3,600. Do you expect the frenzy to continue?

Al Arabiya（阿拉比亚电视台）：最后想问一下关于黄金的问题，今年黄金市场非常热闹，是吧？今年以来上涨了约40%，现在一盎司约3600美元。您认为这种热潮会持续吗？

GTC Group: Yes, I do. And actually, if you look over the past five years, gold is close to double in value. Of course, the past one year has brought tremendous opportunities in gold, but now we're hitting more all-time highs after all-time highs. We've got so many records here that I think we're losing count of how many milestones being met. Essentially, if you look at a couple of different factors here, you have central bank expectations are going to continue to get weaker for interest rates. Naturally, this has historically benefited sentiment towards gold. Also, if you're looking at specifically at the Fed and that pressure that they're under to cut interest rates, there's doubt now that the Fed moved too late, because you've already seen economic data weaken, although that's not the Fed's problem because of the tariff uncertainty. Nonetheless, as you're getting the Trump administration starting to nominate more and more members into the Federal Reserve Committee as voter members too, there's going to be more public pressure on lower interest rates, which means a weaker US dollar sentiment. It means a more beneficial sentiment for emerging markets and so forth, but also this benefits gold. So I think that yes, we haven't hit the end of the, I would say the light's still at the end of the tunnel in terms of seeing more historic highs ahead.

GTC泽汇：是的，我认为会。实际上，过去五年黄金价值几乎翻倍。当然，过去一年黄金带来了巨大机遇，现在我们正不断创下历史新高，记录多到让人数不清。本质上，有几个因素支撑这一趋势。市场预期央行利率将继续走低，这历来对黄金情绪有利。另外，尽管经济数据已经走弱，这主要是关税不确定性造成的，并非美联储的责任，但市场仍怀疑美联储行动过晚。而且，随着特朗普政府开始提名更多成员进入联邦储备委员会担任投票委员，要求降息的公众压力会更大，这意味着美元情绪会更弱，对新兴市场等是利好，同时也利好黄金。所以我认为，黄金创历史新高的道路还远未走到尽头。

Al Arabiya: Okay. Well, thank you very much indeed for sharing that with us. Always a pleasure talking to you, Jameel Ahmad, Global Markets Commentator and Chief Analyst at GTCFX. Thank you very much indeed.

Al Arabiya（阿拉比亚电视台）：非常感谢您的分享，与您交流总是很愉快。再次感谢「GTC泽汇」全球市场评论员兼首席分析师Jameel Ahmad。