沙特经济逆势增长轨迹｜GTC泽汇首席分析师Jameel再做客Al Arabiya

Al Arabiya: I'm here now with Jameel Ahmad, who is a Global Markets Commentator and Chief Analyst at GTCFX. Jameel, thank you for joining us once again. Always a pleasure to see you. So we've had the last full trading week of Q3. Let's take a look back at how the Saudi economy has performed so far this year. How are things looking?

阿拉比亚电视台：今天我们邀请到「GTC泽汇」全球市场评论员兼首席分析师Jameel Ahmad。Jameel，感谢再次接受采访，每次与您交流都令人欣喜。当前我们刚结束第三季度最后一个完整交易周，不妨回顾沙特经济今年至今的表现，整体形势如何？

GTCFX: In one word, impressive. And I'm about to tell you exactly why it's impressive. If you look at some of the most recent statements that have come out from the IMF, they actually recently upgraded the GDP forecast for 2025 from 3% to 3.5%. Firstly, this is also impressive because it completely bucks the global trend, where we're seeing global economic weakness. In fact, the world economy is expected to weaken in 2025 compared to 2024. And also next year, we're expecting to see a weaker global economic outlook too. But sticking with Saudi Arabia just for a couple of seconds, government-led projects are certainly helping the domestic economy continue to expand and also attract international attention. We're seeing a lot of growth because of this and non-oil GDP as the economy continues to diversify heading into the 2030 vision. And also we're seeing increased demand and growth in the export sector. So other economies are now importing goods from Saudi Arabia. That's also supporting the economy. But the outlook also looks promising for 2026 too. So despite global economic weakness, it does look like Saudi Arabia can be somewhat of a shining star, even if it is certainly a little bit more isolated compared to where we're expecting other global economies to be heading.

GTC泽汇：用一句话概括，就是表现非常亮眼。请允许我详细说明原因。国际货币基金组织最新发布的报告将2025年GDP增长预期从3%上调至3.5%。这个调整特别值得关注，因为它完全逆势而行，当前全球经济增长正在放缓。实际上，预计2025年世界经济将比2024年更为疲软，明年的全球经济前景也不容乐观。但把目光聚焦沙特，政府推动的各项计划正在助力国内经济持续扩张，同时吸引着全球目光。随着经济朝着2030愿景目标推进多元化转型，我们看到了显著的增长动能，非石油领域GDP表现尤为突出。同时，出口部门的需求和规模也在持续扩大。越来越多国家开始从沙特进口商品，这为经济发展提供了额外支撑。展望2026年，前景同样令人鼓舞。尽管全球经济增长乏力，沙特依然有望成为一颗璀璨的明星，虽然其发展轨迹与其他主要经济体的预期路径有所不同。

Al Arabiya: Okay, so clearly outperformance for the Saudi economy in 2025. Do you see that continuing into 2026, Jameel?

阿拉比亚电视台：看来沙特经济在2025年的表现确实出众。您认为这种良好态势会延续到2026吗，Jameel？

GTCFX: I do. And not only do I, but also the OECD. The OECD expects for the Saudi economy to actually grow more than forecast even just a couple of months ago for 2026 as well. I think the international-led events, the number of visitors that are going to be heading into Saudi Arabia too, are going to be supporting sentiment. But overall, we do actually expect for the Saudi economy to be growing more in 2026 than what it is showing in 2025. So basically the platform is now being, I would say, laid out for the Saudi economy to continue to outperform heading into the remainder of the 2020s. I think that also we have to watch some global events, but typically because of the number of government-led projects, because of all the projects that are also taking place heading to beyond 2030 as well, namely the World Cup and other international events that will be taking place, that's also going to be helping demand as well as investment within Saudi Arabia.

GTC泽汇：我对此充满信心。不仅是我，经合组织也持相同看法。该机构最新预测显示，沙特2026年的经济增速将比几个月前的预期更为乐观。我认为，国际性活动的举办以及持续增长的游客数量都将提振市场信心。总体而言，我们预计沙特2026年的经济表现将比2025年更上一层楼。可以说，沙特经济已经打下坚实基础，有望在2020年代剩余时间里持续保持领先地位。当然我们还需要关注全球局势变化，但考虑到政府主导项目的规模，以及2030年后将举办的世界杯等国际盛事，这些都将有效刺激国内需求和投资增长。

Al Arabiya: So clearly quite a few factors that are contributing to this outperformance. Are there any others that spring to mind?

阿拉比亚电视台：显然有多重因素共同促成了这样出色的表现。您还能想到其他影响因素吗？

GTCFX: There is. If you look at the region and what's going on across the world, obviously we've got a world economic outlook that's been weaker led by the Trump tariffs and the tariffs that have been put on other economies that are not isolated to like Asia, South Asian economies, Africa, Latin America. Obviously we all know what's happening between the US and China, the US and European Union and so forth. But actually those tariffs are not so much impacted on the GCC region. So this is helping shield the, I would say the region as well as Saudi Arabia, away from some of that tariff negativity. At the same time, of course, the world economy remains very much interconnected. So a more solid economic outlook worldwide would also be supported to grow from the GCC. I think what's also helped matters as well is we've had a substantial weakness in the US dollar. When the US dollar is weakened at its fastest level, if we look at the first half of the trading year, more than 50 years, that also supports investment into the region because you've got currencies that are pegged to the US dollar. Therefore, you have somewhat of a discount if you're looking at then investing within the region because it just becomes more attractive. Lower interest rates also in the United States are helping matters. And I think that's something that will also help matters headed into 2026. Lower investments in terms of borrowing from banks and so forth, that also provides an added stimulus. And I think that's something that will help the Saudi Arabian economy, not only as we start to conclude 2025, but also as we start to head into 2026 because all of the consensus and the statements out there seem pretty clear. In the United States, interest rates will continue to go lower, which means they will also continue to go lower within the GCC region.

GTC泽汇：确实还有。观察地区和全球形势，当前世界经济前景疲软主要受特朗普关税政策影响，这些关税措施不仅针对亚洲、南亚经济体，也波及非洲和拉丁美洲。美中、美欧之间的贸易摩擦大家都已熟知，但实际上海湾合作委员会地区受这些关税影响相对较小。这在某种程度上帮助该地区和沙特规避了部分关税带来的负面影响。当然，世界经济始终相互关联，如果全球经济发展更加稳固，海合会地区自然也会受益。另外，美元显著走弱也产生了积极影响。回顾上半年交易数据，美元正经历五十年来最快的贬值速度，由于该地区货币与美元挂钩，这使得投资该地区更具吸引力，相当于为投资者提供了折价机会。美国的低利率环境也在助推这一趋势，预计到2026年仍将发挥作用。银行借贷成本降低带来了额外刺激，这些明确的市场共识不仅将助力沙特经济为2025年画上圆满句号，也将为2026年发展提供动力。考虑到美国利率持续下行的趋势已经确立，海合会地区的利率水平也将随之走低。

Al Arabiya: Okay, Jameel. So just to wrap up, I mean, in summary, the economy seems to be doing well. The stock market, as I was saying in the introduction, has been doing well, especially the last couple of weeks. I mean, obviously, these two things, there's a correlation between them both. Do you see them both continuing to outperform through to 2026?

阿拉比亚电视台：感谢分析，Jameel。那么总结来看，沙特经济表现稳健，正如开场时提到的，股市特别是最近几周表现强劲。这两者显然存在关联。您认为这种双重优势能持续到2026年吗？

GTCFX: There definitely is a correlation. But in fact, if you look at other, I would say, global economies, that correlation doesn't always bear fruit. Sometimes you have a stock market that's performing very well, but a, say, domestic economy that's not performing so well. I think what's happening in Saudi Arabia, though, bugged that trend because you have the Saudi stock market and the economy that mirror in the same progression. It's essentially you've got an economy that's opening up. It's becoming somewhat of the little engine that will, because obviously the Saudi economy has always had potential, but that potential is now starting to be realized, and we're just at the beginning of those steps. On top of this, the news this week about the potential increase in the allocations that foreign investors are allowed into Saudi markets, that led to the biggest one-day gain in five years. Should that move also materialize, you're going to have even further investment into the Saudi stock market. Some of the estimates are billions and billions of inflows that could enter Saudi Arabia. So essentially, as the economy continues to open up, as financial markets continue to open up within Saudi Arabia, and all of the activity continues to take place, led by government projects, then yes, that trend of looking at the Saudi Arabian stock market will continue, and it's also helped by increased sentiment towards emerging markets based on U.S. industrial policy, too.

GTC泽汇：两者确实密切相关。但观察其他主要经济体时我们发现，这种关联性并不总是成立。有时股市表现良好，但实体经济却相对疲软。然而沙特的情况打破了这种常态，其股市走势与经济发展步伐保持一致。本质上，这是一个正在稳步开放的经济体，就像开始发力的小引擎，沙特经济一直蕴藏着巨大潜力，而现在这些潜力正在逐步释放，这仅仅是个开始。更重要的是，本周关于放宽外资投资沙特市场额度限制的消息，推动股市创下五年来最大单日涨幅。如果这一措施落实，预计还将有数百亿资金涌入沙特股市。随着经济和金融市场持续开放，在政府项目引领的各项活动持续推进下，沙特股市的向好趋势必将延续。加之美国产业政策带动新兴市场情绪升温，这将为沙特提供额外助力。

Al Arabiya: Okay, we're going to have to leave it there. We're out of time. Thank you very much indeed, though, Jameel Ahmad, Global Markets Commentator and Chief Analyst at GTCFX. Thanks again.

阿拉比亚电视台：由于时间关系，我们今天的讨论就到这里。非常感谢「GTC泽汇」全球市场评论员兼首席分析师Jameel Ahmad的精彩分享，再次感谢您。