解析贸易休战与市场走向｜GTC泽汇首席分析师再次做客TRT WORLD

Video Credit to: TRT WORLD

采访日期：11.07 2025

TRT WORLD: We are joined by Jameel Ahmad, Chief Analyst at GTCFX. Now, Jameel, there's positive sentiment across the board. Let's unpack the impact of this trade truce.

土耳其世界频道：今天我们邀请到「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad。Jameel，目前市场洋溢着普遍的乐观情绪。让我们来深入分析这份贸易休战协议的影响。

GTCFX: It's exactly that. It's a trade truce. I would say it's also some of a photo opportunity rather than a trade agreement. If we were having this interview just a week ago, there's actually hopes that that final meeting between the U.S. President and the Chinese leadership would lead to a real agreement where, in reality, we have a truce. I would say it's helped market sentiment because U.S. and China relations should, from this point, improve, but we have a one-year deadline to put on that. I would say what also has helped sentiment is actually that the U.S. Federal Reserve did cut interest rates last week. Earnings season in the United States continued to impress, and we had another positive October overall, but now we're on the first trading day of November, and one of those factors isn't going to continue necessarily into this month, which is that the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Central Bank, actually suggested that an interest rate cut next month is not a done deal. We do not know when we're next going to get real economic data out of the United States. It's that government shutdown has very closely hit in one month. And if you are monitoring the Chinese economic data away from the trade truce with the United States, we're just going to slow down the Chinese economy as well. So I do question whether investors might get more tempted to take profit on Wall Street and world positions this month, just like at the end of last week, and last week we had profit taken on gold as well.

GTC泽汇：确实如此，这可以称为贸易休战。但我觉得这更像是一场作秀，而非真正的贸易协议。如果我们的采访提前一周进行，当时人们还期待着美国总统与中国领导人的最终会晤能达成实质性协议，而现实却只是休战。可以说这份协议提振了市场情绪，因为中美关系理应从此有所改善，但我们设定的休战期限只有一年。实际上，推动市场情绪的另一个因素是美联储上周确实实施了降息。美国财报季持续带来积极惊喜，整个十月份市场表现向好，不过现在进入十一月的首个交易日，其中一个推动因素未必能在本月延续，那就是美联储，即美国央行，实际上已暗示下个月是否降息尚无定论。我们还不确定下次什么时候能拿到美国真实的经济数据。政府停摆危机近在眼前，只剩一个月时间。如果我们把目光从中美贸易休战移开，关注中国经济数据，会发现中国经济同样在放缓。因此我不禁怀疑，投资者本月是否会像上周末那样，更倾向于对华尔街及全球持仓进行获利了结，上周黄金市场同样出现了获利了结操作。

TRT WORLD: Right. Meanwhile, oil prices have risen for a fourth session. What's behind OPEC's decision to pause production hikes for the time being?

土耳其世界频道：确实。与此同时油价已连续四个交易日上涨。欧佩克决定暂缓增产的背后原因是什么？

GTCFX: We need to take into account that if you look at what the OPEC and OPEC Plus have been doing over the past nine months or so, specifically from the end of Q1 2025, they've added close to 3 million barrels of production per day into the oil atmosphere, which is somewhere around 3% of global supply. So perhaps they're just going to pause it over the next couple of months, see what happens in the global macro picture, see what happens with the extension of Russian sanctions, as well as what's going to happen with the world economic sentiment. And perhaps over the first quarter of 2026, we're going to see a change, because essentially what they signaled was that they would continue as they are. There will be somewhat of a pause early next year. But as you know, with OPEC and OPEC Plus, they can change their decisions by the day if they need to. So I wouldn't look into too much of a longer term picture from this.

GTC泽汇：我们需要考虑到，看看欧佩克及其联盟过去九个月左右的行动，特别是从2025年第一季度末以来，他们已向全球油市日均增产近300万桶，这约占全球供应量的百分之三。所以他们可能打算未来几个月暂缓增产，先观察全球宏观形势发展，关注对俄罗斯制裁的延长情况，以及世界经济情绪的变化。预计到2026年第一季度我们可能会看到政策调整，因为他们本质上释放的信号是保持现行政策。明年初会有一段暂缓期。但众所周知，对于欧佩克及其联盟来说，他们完全可以根据需要随时改变决策。所以我认为不必对此做过度的长期解读。

TRT WORLD: All right, we'll have to leave it there for now. Jameel Ahmad in Dubai, thank you very much for your analysis.

土耳其世界频道：好的，由于时间关系我们暂时谈到这里。在迪拜的Jameel Ahmad，非常感谢您的分析。