Video Credit to: FRANCE 24
采访日期：10.12 2025
France 24: Well, it's time now for a checkup on the markets. U.S. indices broke records this week, raising some concerns about over-inflated investor enthusiasm for tech and AI. Well, making sense of it all, we're joined by Jameel Ahmad, Chief Analyst at GTCFX. Jameel, great to have you with us today. So Wall Street appears to be trending lower after a week of record highs, despite that ongoing shutdown. What's going on?
法国24台：现在又到了盘点市场行情的时间。本周美国股指屡破纪录，引发人们对科技和人工智能领域投资者热情过度膨胀的担忧。今天我们邀请到「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad，为我们解读市场动向。Jameel，很高兴您今天能参与节目。尽管政府停摆持续，但在创下一周历史新高后，华尔街似乎呈现下跌趋势，目前市场究竟是怎么回事？
GTCFX: Well, you would look at it as a little bit of a mystery when you consider the uncertainty that's taken place around the shutdown, but essentially, the longer the shutdown continues and the increased likelihood that it might be used as an opportunity from the Trump administration to reduce jobs and to cut jobs, essentially that puts even more of a fire of pressure on the U.S. central bank, which is the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve have cut interest rates only once in the United States this year, despite ongoing criticism from the Trump administration, and also, we're already seeing weaknesses when it comes to the monthly job support from the United States. For example, some of the most recent data, of course, September's PMI wasn't even announced because of the shutdown, but it's drastically lower than this time last year. So essentially, what investors are doing are pricing in that the U.S. central bank would be more aggressive with interest rate policy, and historically, that has been beneficial for assets like the stock markets, as well as the gold and negative the U.S. dollar. And those are essentially the trends that are playing out in financial market sentiment.
GTC泽汇：其实考虑到政府停摆带来的不确定性，当前局面确实显得有些匪夷所思。但本质上，停摆持续越久，特朗普政府借机削减工作岗位的可能性就越大，这无疑给美国央行即美联储带来更大压力。尽管特朗普政府持续批评，美联储今年仅在美国实施过一次降息，同时我们已经看到美国月度就业支撑数据显露疲态。例如受停摆影响，九月份采购经理人指数甚至未能公布，但该数据已远低于去年同期水平。本质上，投资者正在押注美联储将采取更激进的利率政策，而从历史经验看，这对股市等资产以及黄金有利，对美元则形成利空。这些正是当前金融市场情绪中显现的主要趋势。
France 24: Now, speaking of record highs, Jameel, gold indeed hit $4,000 for the first time. What's driving this frenzy?
法国24台：说到历史新高，Jameel，黄金价格确实首次突破4000美元。推动这波热潮的因素是什么？
GTCFX: It's astonishing. If we would have had this interview just two weeks ago, we would have said that gold prices have doubled over five years. Now they've doubled over two years. There's a number of different reasons why investors are looking towards gold. Firstly, you have the worst half of the trading year for the U.S. dollar since 1973. Gold is denominated in the U.S. dollars, and now gold is having its best year since 1979. There's a link there. Also, on the institutional side, it does appear that fund managers are starting to increase the allocations of gold holdings and withdraw some of their allocations of more traditional assets such as treasuries. I would also point out that U.S. central bank narrative isn't slowing down, and the more pressure and the likelihood of aggressive interest rate cuts from the United States, that's also boosting sentiment towards the precious metal.
GTC泽汇：确实令人震惊。如果我们在两周前进行这场对话，我会说金价用了五年时间翻倍。而现在这个周期缩短到了两年。投资者转向黄金有多重原因。首要原因是美元正经历1973年以来最糟糕的半年表现。黄金以美元计价，而当前黄金迎来了1979年以来的最佳年度，两者存在内在关联。从机构层面看，基金经理似乎确实开始增持黄金配置，同时减持国债等传统资产。我还需指出，美联储的政策导向并未放缓，美国采取更激进降息措施的压力和可能性越大，对黄金的看涨情绪就越强烈。
France 24: Now, we are now wrapping up, Jameel, our first trading week of the final quarter. What are investors focusing on?
法国24台：Jameel，当前我们正为今年最后一季度的首个交易周作结。投资者现阶段关注哪些重点？
GTCFX: Well, previous quarters have been dominated by trade tensions and trade tariffs and what the Trump administration might in reality do when it comes to trade. Essentially, over this quarter, we're expecting to look at two different things. One, the impact of those trade tariffs on economic data, not only in the United States but also on a global level. And we're also going to be looking even more closely at the Trump administration and their comments towards U.S. central bank policy because we are starting to see a little bit of a conflict where there might be potential independence issues, at least when it comes to investor sentiment. That's something that they take very seriously, and that's something that I would also be watching much more closely over the final quarter, whether that Trump administration will be able to hold some influence over the federal reserve. Of course, one of the Trump allies, Stephen Miran, joined the federal reserve only last month following an unexpected resignation, and he also voted for a more aggressive interest rate increase. So I would be looking to see if that's more of a trend that plays out over the final quarter as well.
GTC泽汇：此前几个季度市场始终围绕贸易紧张局势、关税政策以及特朗普政府实际可能采取的贸易措施展开。本质上在本季度，我们预计将关注两大重点：一是这些关税措施对经济数据的影响，这不仅涉及美国更关乎全球层面；二是我们将更密切关注特朗普政府及其对美联储政策的表态，因为我们开始察觉到潜在独立性争议的苗头，至少就投资者情绪而言如此。这方面备受市场重视，我也将在第四季度特别关注特朗普政府能否对美联储施加影响力。值得注意的是，特朗普盟友Stephen Miran在上月意外辞职后加入美联储，他本人也曾投票支持更激进的加息措施。因此我将密切观察这是否会成为第四季度的重要趋势。
