「GTC泽汇」全球市场评论员兼首席分析师Jameel Ahmad在接受 Al Arabiya 阿拉比亚电视台采访时指出，国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新一期《世界经济展望》报告再次上调沙特经济增长预期，这已是近期多家全球主要机构连续数周对沙特经济前景表示乐观。Jameel认为，沙特经济正展现出逆全球悲观趋势而上的强劲势头。
Al Arabiya: For more i am join now by Jameel Ahmad, who is a Global Markets Commentator and Chief Analyst at GTCFX. Thank you very much indeed, for joining us Jameel. As we were saying in the introduction, another week has gone by and we've got another upgrade for the Saudi economy. This time the IMF upgrading GDP forecast growth. What has the IMF said in its world economic outlook about Saudi Arabia?
阿拉比亚电视台：现在我们连线「GTC泽汇」全球市场评论员兼首席分析师Jameel Ahmad. Jameel，非常感谢您今天接受我们的连线采访。正如我们开场时提到的，又一周过去了，我们看到沙特经济再次获得了预期上调。这一次是国际货币基金组织调高了其GDP增长预测。基金组织在《世界经济展望》报告中具体是怎么说沙特的？
GTCFX: Essentially, if we compare what the IMF were looking for back in April, they were expecting growth somewhere around 3%. That got upgraded at that time to 3.4 and 3.6% around that range. This week they've come out in their world economic outlook to expect 4% growth GDP for 2025 and 4% growth in 2026 as well. So, we've seen another upward revision. Actually, this is successive weeks that we're talking about further upgrades for the Saudi Arabian economy. Only last week we were speaking about the World Bank. We also spoke about the OECD just the week before. And of course, we also spoke about the previous IMF upgrade. So, it seems that the world leading institutions and think tanks are all on the same wavelength that the Saudi Arabian economy needs to be upgraded for its GDP forecast. And it seems like despite global economic weakness and some concerns about the global economy when it comes to trade tariffs and some other uncertainties that the Saudi Arabian economy actually continues to buck some of the more pessimistic trends elsewhere. And it wouldn't surprise me if we have more upgrades between now and the end of the Q4 2025 as well.
GTC泽汇：本质上讲，如果我们对比国际货币基金组织在四月份的预测，当时他们预期的增长率在3%左右。之后那次预测被上调到了3.4%到3.6%的区间。本周，他们在《世界经济展望》报告中预计，2025年GDP将增长4%，2026年同样增长4%。所以我们看到了又一次的上调。事实上，这已经是连续数周我们讨论沙特经济获得进一步的上调预期了。就在上周我们提到了世界银行的报告，再上一周我们还讨论了经合组织的预测，当然，我们也谈及了国际货币基金组织之前的上调。所以，看来全球领先的机构和智库都达成了共识，认为沙特的GDP预测需要被上调。而且，尽管全球经济疲软，存在对贸易关税和其他不确定性的担忧，但沙特经济似乎确实在逆势而上，摆脱了其他地方的一些更悲观的趋势。如果在当前到2025年第四季度末之间，我们看到更多的预期上调，我也不会感到惊讶。
Al Arabiya: Okay. So, since we last spoke seven days ago or so, how has the main Saudi stock index been performing?
阿拉比亚电视台：自从我们上次对话后，大约七天前，沙特主要股票指数表现如何？
GTCFX: We've had another positive week for the Tadawul. We actually went up around 1% following the inflation data earlier this week that showed the headline inflation had slowed slightly from the previous month. Essentially, the slowing down of inflation is seen as supporting the economy when it comes to consumer spending and investment at a time when many businesses and industries continue to load up more money and longer term investments into the Gulf. I would also look at some of the other global economic market movements. For example, Wall Street had some more record highs this week. It seems that investor sentiment is still very much positive towards emerging markets based on US industry policy. I would look a little bit more towards the upcoming risk between the US and China, which seems to be hitting another obviously trade tariff dispute and whether that impacts emerging market sentiment this week or next week. However, as far as the trading quarter goes so far, we've got a positive October for the Tadawul index.
GTC泽汇：沙特股市本周又迎来了积极的一周。实际上，在本周早些时候的通胀数据显示整体通胀率较上月略有放缓之后，我们上涨了大约1%。本质上，通胀放缓被视为对经济的支撑，特别是在消费和投资方面，而此时许多企业和行业正持续向海湾地区投入更多资金和长期投资。我也会关注其他一些全球经济的市场动向。例如，华尔街本周又创下了一些历史新高。基于美国的产业政策，投资者对新兴市场的情绪似乎仍然非常积极。我会更加关注美中之间即将出现的风险，双方似乎再次陷入了明显的贸易关税争端，这可能在本周或下周影响新兴市场的情绪。然而，就本交易季度迄今为止的表现来看，沙特股指在十月份是积极的。
Al Arabiya: Okay. And we've talked quite a bit the last few weeks on this channel about gold prices hitting. Well, every day there seems to be a new all-time high. At least that's been the case in the last few weeks. What about silver? Is silver catching up, do you think?
阿拉比亚电视台：好的。过去几周我们在本频道多次谈到金价创下新高，嗯，似乎每天都有新的历史高点。至少最近几周情况是如此。那白银呢？您认为白银跟上这波行情了吗？
GTCFX: Silver is catching up and it was only a couple of days ago silver hit its highest level in around 10 years and that's now being followed by historic highs for the silver price too. I think essentially that investors are diversifying more in towards metals. Of course, we've talked about the gold rally. Gold price is up another near 10% since the last time we talked and as of today it was nearly US$4,400. I still expect that despite both silver and gold looking very overbought on a technical basis and actually there's no justification for some of these moves we're seeing in the markets. But the more that investors seem to be very much on this one side of trade and with some of the macroeconomic backdrop from lower interest rate expectations in the United States, ongoing government shutdowns, which is also positively leading towards more of a consensus that US central bank interest rates need to come down. It seems like there's going to be more positive for precious metals at least over the near term and emerging markets including the Tadable and the Saudi Arabian index can also, I would say, jump on that trend too.
GTC泽汇：白银正在跟上。就在几天前，白银价格达到了大约十年来的最高水平，并且现在银价也紧随其后创下了历史新高。我认为，本质上投资者正在更多地分散投资到金属领域。当然，我们讨论过黄金的涨势。自从我们上次交谈以来，金价又上涨了接近10%，截至今天已接近每盎司4400美元。尽管从技术层面看，白银和黄金看起来都已经严重超买，并且市场上看到的这些走势有些缺乏合理依据，但我仍然预期贵金属还有上涨空间。而且，投资者似乎越来越倾向于单边做多这类资产，加上一些宏观背景，比如美国较低的利率预期、持续的政府停摆，这也正促使市场更一致地认为美联储需要降息。至少在短期内，贵金属前景似乎会更加乐观，而且我认为，包括沙特股指在内的新兴市场也可以顺势而上。
Al Arabiya: Okay, and just lastly, you mentioned the US government shutdown there. We've had three weeks now of this shutdown more or less. I mean, could this have any impact, do you think, on the Saudi Arabian economy?
阿拉比亚电视台：最后一点，您刚才提到了美国政府停摆。这次停摆现在或多或少已经持续三周了。您认为这会对沙特经济产生任何影响吗？
GTCFX: It could do in terms of the financial market. There's two different ways to look at this. Firstly, if this government shutdown actually does continue into the third trading week, which would be next week, the expectations are going to increase even higher that it's going to impact the US economy. Therefore, it's going to impact the pressure that the US central bank is already under to cut interest rates. Should the interest rates continue to go down in the US, that means they will continue to go down in the region including in Saudi Arabia. And at the same point, historically, lower interest rate policy and just that narrative is actually a positive for emerging market sentiment. Of course, Saudi Arabia is an emerging market, so that is also going to help matters. And let's see whether the government shutdown does conclude. But at the moment, it seems like it might go on for the rest of October because we have no positive headlines that is set to conclude in the United States.
GTC泽汇：可能会通过金融市场渠道产生影响。这可以从两个不同的角度来看。首先，如果这次政府停摆真的持续到第三个交易周，也就是下周，那么市场预期将会进一步提高，认为这将影响美国经济。因此，这会加大美联储本已面临的降息压力。如果美国的利率继续下降，这意味着包括沙特在内的该地区利率也将随之下降。而与此同时，从历史上看，低利率政策以及这种叙事本身对新兴市场情绪其实是积极的。当然，沙特是一个新兴市场，所以这也会有所帮助。我们还得看政府停摆是否会结束。但目前看来，它可能会持续到十月底，因为在美国还没有出现能结束停摆的积极头条新闻。
Al Arabiya: Okay. we appreciate you taking the time to talk us through that. Thank you very much indeed, Jameel Ahmad, Global Markets Commentator and Chief Analyst at GTCFX. Thank you very much for your time.
阿拉比亚电视台：非常感谢您抽出时间为我们解读，「GTC泽汇」全球市场评论员兼首席分析师Jameel Ahmad。
