Video Credit to: FRANCE 24
采访日期：11.15 2025
近日，欧洲与全球市场再度陷入动荡，英国国债遭遇猛烈抛售，而美股政府停摆结束却意外引发获利了结潮。针对这些反直觉的市场现象，「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad应邀接受 France 24 采访，深入解读了背后成因并分享了其对未来走势的展望。
France 24: It's time now for our wrap-up of the day's market movement. Here in Europe, U.K. government bonds resumed a steep sell-off today. Investors still concerned about ditched income tax rises in this month's budget. Global markets are also shaky due to uncertainty over economic data over in the United States. As always, we're going to turn to Jameel Ahmad, Chief Analyst at GTCFX Trading. Jameel, thanks very much for joining us, as always. So, we're seeing a sell-off then as the U.S. shutdown is coming to an end, I guess that's kind of counterintuitive. Why is this what we're seeing?
法国24台：现在来回顾今天的市场走势。在欧洲这边，英国国债今天再度遭遇猛烈抛售。投资者仍在担忧本月预算案中取消所得税上调计划的影响。由于美国经济数据存在不确定性，全球市场也处于震荡状态。照例连线「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad。Jameel，感谢你再次接受我们的采访。我们看到在美国政府停摆即将结束之际市场却出现抛售，这似乎有些反常。为什么会出现这种情况？
GTCFX: It's the second Friday in a row now that we've seen markets really take off in terms of actually people taking profits off the table. In terms of the government shutdown, although it's good news that actually it has ended and it was the longest shutdown in history, the issue at hand is that there seems to be concerns that the economic data that was not released in October might not actually be available at all. So, we might not actually know how, let's say, detrimental the shutdown has been to the economy or whether the shutdown actually has an impact to the economy at all. So, investors are taking profits off the table. It's not just on Wall Street and financial markets and world markets. We're also seeing it in gold, Bitcoin, the U.S. dollar. So, I think at the end of the week, traders are just taking profit. Until we get clarity on when exactly we're going to get the resuming schedule of economic releases, it's going to be a bit difficult for investors to be confident about next week as well.
GTC泽汇：这已经是连续第二个周五出现市场大规模获利了结的现象。关于政府停摆，虽然停摆结束且是史上最长停摆周期算是个好消息，但眼下问题是人们担心十月份未能发布的经济数据可能永远无法补发。也就是说我们可能无法确切知道停摆对经济造成了多大损害，甚至是否产生了实质影响。所以投资者正在获利了结。这不仅发生在华尔街和全球金融市场，黄金、比特币和美元市场也都出现同样情况。我认为临近周末交易员都在锁定收益。在明确经济数据具体发布时间表之前，投资者很难对下周走势建立信心。
France 24: Now, Jameel, investors also seem nervous about the consequences of the shutdown and the Fed delaying interest rate cuts. How is that affecting the situation?
法国24台：Jameel，投资者似乎也对停摆后果和美联储推迟降息感到不安。这对当前形势有何影响？
GTCFX: So, right now, there's a 50-50 percent chance of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, cutting interest rates next month in December. If we would have had this interview just over a week or so ago, we had more than a 90 percent chance of another interest rate cut. Although the Federal Reserve, which is the U.S. central bank, policymakers didn't want to, I would say, provide too much confidence in economic interest rates, financial markets were quite confident they would. Until we get the key economic data start to be resumed again in terms of the release, it seems the financial markets are going to be undercooking the likelihood of U.S. central bank cutting interest rates. But I would say that actually the probability is higher that they're going to cut them rather than leave them unchanged because we know how much pressure the U.S. central bank has been under this year anyway in terms of leaving it too late to cut interest rates.
GTC泽汇：目前市场认为美联储在下个月12月降息的概率是五五开。如果我们在一个多星期前进行这场对话，当时降息概率还超过百分之九十。尽管美联储政策制定者不愿对经济利率表现过于乐观，但金融市场原本对此很有信心。在关键经济数据恢复发布之前，金融市场似乎一直在低估美联储降息的可能性。但我认为降息概率其实高于维持不变，因为我们都知道美联储今年在降息时机上一再推迟承受了多大压力。
France 24: In other news, Jameel, gold has dropped, Bitcoin now under $100,000. What other developments in that sense have caught your eye this week and in the days coming ahead?
法国24台：另外Jameel，黄金下跌，比特币跌破十万美元关口。本周还有哪些动向值得关注？
GTCFX: Everything's being sold today. So I wouldn't look at anything as a deus ex machina or an isolated financial market movement. I think Bitcoin moving below $100,000, that's a key area for traders to watch because it does open the doors for a potential correction lower. Having said that, again, this time last week, we did see gold prices actually go below $4,000. Again, that was a big psychological level. But just a couple of days ago, we moved back towards 4,200 U.S. dollars. Overall financial market volatility remains very likely. We're seeing a lot of moves across financial markets. So investor education is very important. And I think investors are also trying to gorge what exactly we might start to see towards the end of this year and 2026. But at the moment, we don't know what's happening day to day. So it's very difficult to provide a medium and longer-term outlook towards what trends and themes we need to watch.
GTC泽汇：今天所有资产都在被抛售。所以我认为不存在什么救命稻草或独立走势。比特币跌破十万美元确实是交易员关注的关键位置，这可能打开进一步回调空间。不过需要指出，上周此时金价也曾跌破四千美元，那也是个重要心理关口。但就在几天前金价又回升至四千两百美元。整体来看金融市场波动很可能持续。当前市场异动频繁，投资者教育尤为重要。我认为投资者也在努力研判今年年底到2026年可能出现的趋势。但目前每日行情都存在变数，要对中长期趋势和主题做出预判确实非常困难。
France 24: Jameel Ahmad, thank you very much, as always, for that market analysis.
法国24台：Jameel Ahmad，再次感谢你带来的市场分析。
