导读
在对华和印太政策方面，美国现任的拜登政府与前任特朗普政府并无本质区别，仍视中国为首要挑战，加大了针对中国的挑衅力度，试图以更强硬的态度遏制中国发展。唯一不同的是，拜登更强调同盟体系的作用，新建或升级了一些小多边地区集团以围堵中国。虽然拜登口头上说无意挑起“新冷战”，但仍未走出“零和”思维的美国，事实上正在推高“新冷战”的风险。
作者：韦宗友
复旦大学美国研究中心教授
2021年拜登入主白宫时，曾发誓要摒弃前任特朗普时期大部分存在争议的外交和国内政策，让美国回归“正常”和“体面”。但是，至少从美国现在的对华和印太政策上看，拜登与特朗普并无本质区别。拜登政府仍将中国视为首要战略挑战，推行基于中美战略竞争的“印太战略”，在印太地区乃至世界范围内，针对中国采取了一系列围堵和遏制手段。
政治方面，拜登政府大肆渲染中美两国的制度和意识形态竞争与对抗，将其描述为耸人听闻的“威权与民主”之争，并发誓要让“民主”在竞争中胜出。
Politically, the Biden administration sensationalizes the institutional and even ideological competition and confrontation between China and the US, casts it in terms of "authoritarianism versus democracy", and vows to make "democracy "deliver and prevail in the competition.
经济方面，作为提升美国地区经济影响、对抗中国“一带一路”倡议的重要举措，拜登政府提出了“印太经济框架” (IPEF)。拜登政府认为，仅在口头上公开指责中国的经济倡议和影响力是不够的，美国必须拿出一些具体举措。通过在贸易、基础设施、数字经济、清洁低碳、专属供应链和高科技企业等方面强调建立美国式规则和“高标准”，拜登政府希望在与中国的竞争中把原本“缺失的环节”给补上，在自己的优势领域击败中国。
Economically, the Biden administration has put forward the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity" in the hope of neutralizing China's growing economic influence and shoring up support for the US in the region. The Biden administration realizes that it's not enough just to name and shame China's economic initiative and influence, the US has to offer something concrete. With the IPEF, which emphasizes the US-style rules and "high standards" in trade, infrastructure, and digital economy, decarbonization and clean infrastructure, and exclusive supply chains and high-tech groups, the Biden administration hopes to forge the "missing links" in its competition with China and beat China in its own advantageous areas.
图片来源：中国日报
安全方面，拜登政府确实摒弃了特朗普政府诸多“打击盟友”的做法，将盟友和伙伴的团结置于同中国竞争的核心。拜登政府不仅宣布其盟友和伙伴是美国“不可或缺的战略资产”，采取措施加强盟友关系，还升级或新建了不少小多边安全集团。
With regard to security, the Biden administration foregoes much of the Trump administration's "ally bashing" approach and has put the unity of allies and partners at the center of its security competition with China. The Biden administration has not only declared its allies and partners to be indispensable strategic assets of the US, and taken measures to enhance their relations, it has also upgraded and formed new mini-lateral security groups.
2021年3月，在上台不到两个月的时候，拜登将美日印澳四国安全对话 (Quad) 从部长级升级为首脑级，并首次举行了线上领导人峰会。同年9月，四方安全对话首次线下领导人会晤在华盛顿举行，就在印太地区形成对抗中国的“统一战线”协调立场，制定政策。今年2月，拜登政府发布最新版本的印太战略，其中宣称Quad将成为“印太地区的主要组织”，这事实上是把Quad当作了美国实施印太战略的磋商平台和主要工具。
图片来源：新华社
2021年9月，美国、英国和澳大利亚组建了美英澳三边安全伙伴关系 (AUKUS)。从表面上看，该机制是为美英两国向澳大利亚提供核技术，帮助建造建造和运行核潜艇而设立。但考虑到澳大利亚在核问题上的长期立场、东盟对澳大利亚获取核潜艇技术的关切，以及澳大利亚与中国日益紧张的关系，该协议的意图和未来走向也已显而易见。可以说，AUKUS是美国在其传统的“轴辐式”联盟体系之外建立的一个新的、旨在遏制中国在印太地区海上力量和影响力的“准联盟”体系。
此外，拜登政府在台湾问题以及东海和南海问题上也更加强硬，扩大对台军售，提高官员窜访频次和级别，增加对台“政治支持”。拿最新的例子来说，美国众议院议长、美国政坛“三号人物”佩洛西不顾中方强烈反对，窜访台湾，致使中美两国陷入冷战结束以来最严重的对峙。
In addition, the Biden administration has also toughened its rhetoric on the Taiwan question and the East China Sea and South China Sea disputes. It has increased its arms sales, officials visits and "political support" to China's Taiwan. In the latest example, Nancy Pelosi, the US House Speaker and the US' third-highest ranking leader, visited Taipei to show Washington's support despite China's strong opposition, which has provoked China and the US into the worst confrontation since the end of the Cold War.
图片来源：中国日报
这种针对中国、奉行“零和”博弈的“印太战略”一旦全面实施，将给地区政治、经济、安全秩序蒙上一层阴影。
This China-centered zero-sum "Indo-Pacific" strategy, if implemented fully, will cast a long shadow over the regional political, economic, and security order.
政治方面，这一战略可能会在印太地区制造一条“断层线”。冷战结束以来，东亚长期远离大国竞争，保持了相对稳定。这种良好的环境造就了东亚的“经济奇迹”，使亿万人民摆脱了贫困。然而，随着美国掀起新的大国竞争，并试图迫使地区国家在中美之间“站队”，即使新的冷战不会爆发，也会在亚洲造成政治断层。
Politically, it will probably create a fault line in the "Indo-Pacific". Since the end of the Cold War, East Asia has remained relatively stable, free of great power competition. This favorable environment has made it possible the economic miracle of East Asia, which has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. However, with the US engaged in new great power competition and trying to force regional countries to choose sides between the US and China, it is creating a political fault line, if not a new Cold War, in Asia.
经济方面，拜登政府的“印太战略”正在制造分裂对立的经济集团和阵营，扰乱区域一体化进程。拜登政府清楚地知道，要对付中国，不能“正面硬刚”，也不能仅靠口头指责。所以，它专注于自己拥有“比较优势”的领域，通过发起IPEF，强调“市场规则”“高标准”和经济安全，将经济关系武器化，扰乱区域经济一体化进程，打造专属于自己的供应链、技术和经济集团。
Economically, it is creating parallel economic groups and camps and disrupting the regional integration process. The Biden administration knows that it cannot compete with China dollar for dollar, nor can it do it by only naming and shaming China. Instead, it focuses on where it has "comparative advantages". By initiating the IPEF, emphasizing the "market rules", "high standards", and economic security, it is weaponizing economic relations, disrupting the regional economic integration process, and creating exclusive supply chains, and technological, and economic groups to its advantages.
图片来源：中国日报
安全方面，拜登政府的“印太战略”及其具体计划的实施，大大增加了地区的安全风险。一方面，美国加强同盟关系，升级Quad，新建AUKUS，形成了冷战式的安全阵营，大有重重包围中国之势。另一方面，美国在南海的近距离监视、军舰频繁通过台湾海峡、美国高官高调窜访中国台湾地区等等事件正在侵蚀中美之间仅存的战略互信，大大增加了误解和误判的可能性。在危机时刻，核大国之间的冲突将会是灾难性的。
In security terms, the Biden administration's "Indo-Pacific "strategy and its implementation have greatly increased regional security risks. For one thing, the strengthening of alliances, the upgrading of the Quad, and the establishing of AUKUS are creating a Cold War-like security camps and increasing China's sense of encirclement. For another, the US close-in surveillance in the South China Sea, the frequent passage of US naval vessels through the Taiwan Straits, and high-profile US officials' visits to China's Taiwan are eroding whatever was left of the little strategic trust between China and the US, and greatly increased the possibility of miscalculation and misjudgment. In time of crisis, this can be catastrophic between major nuclear powers.
不久前，拜登再度表示，美国无意与中国掀起“新冷战”，不寻求遏制中国，而是希望建立保护美中关系的“护栏”。然而，从美国“印太战略”迄今的表现来看，拜登政府未能从特朗普政府留下的泥潭中脱身，它正朝着将中美关系推向激烈竞争和对抗，甚至可能导致“新冷战”的方向越走越远。
Biden has said time again the US is not interested in starting a new Cold War with China, does not seek to contain China, and instead wants to establish guardrails to safeguard US-China relations. However, from what it has done so far in terms of its "Indo-Pacific "strategy, it is increasingly driving China-US relations toward the direction of fierce competition and confrontation, if not a new Cold War. It has failed to emerge from the swamp the Trump administration left behind.
图片来源：中国日报