“只要稍微了解一点中国历史，就知道中国绝不会屈服”

4月25日，撰稿人克里斯·特鲁克斯（Chris Truax）在美国《国会山报》发表了一篇题为《中国正在给特朗普狠狠地上一堂贸易课》的评论文章。

他指出，曾经经历两次鸦片战争的中国，不会屈服于特朗普的关税威胁，而实际上，美国才是无法承受关税高昂代价的那一方。

特鲁克斯提到，鸦片战争是中国历史上的重大创伤，西方列强以贸易逆差为由强迫中国购买鸦片，开启了中国“百年屈辱”的历史，这段历史至今未能愈合。稍微了解一点中国历史的人都会明白，特朗普的关税威胁显然不会动摇中国，反而让中国焕发出新的国家使命感。

The First Opium War began what the Chinese call the "century of humiliation," during which China was exploited and invaded by various foreign powers.

Trump's efforts to bully China into submission via tariffs has already gone spectacularly wrong. Far from being intimidated, China has been invigorated with a new sense of national purpose. To anyone who had the slightest understanding of Chinese history, this was all perfectly predictable.

从现实角度来看，中国没有理由屈服于特朗普的威胁。特鲁克斯认为，中国比美国更能在贸易战中生存下来。

即便中国的出口商受损，中国可以通过政策支持国内企业。而美国则面临供应链问题，无法简单应对，因为许多消费品在美国没有现成的替代品。

特鲁克斯指出，如果中国停止对美国的出口，美国将面临商品短缺，沃尔玛等商店的货架将空空如也。“还记得疫情期间‘一罩难求’的情况吗？这次将是无数倍的商品短缺，价格飞涨，即使是特朗普也无法用行政命令改变供需规律。”

China is far better positioned to survive a trade war than is the US, for one simple reason: China can solve its biggest problem by throwing money at it.

The US can't do that — we have a supply-chain problem, not a financial problem. Once China stops exporting to the US, there is no amount of money we can spend that will fill up our Walmarts. Remember trying to buy medical masks during the pandemic? Multiply that by tens of thousands of products. Many things will be completely unavailable, and what is available will be much more expensive. Not even Trump can repeal the law of supply and demand by executive order.

减少对出口和西方技术的依赖，是中国的长远利益所在。中国并不急于结束目前的僵局，特朗普也因此陷入了焦虑，频繁发表“臆想性的声明”，声称中美贸易协议即将达成，中国官员多次与他“接触”，并坚持“每天”都在进行积极的谈判。然而事实是，这些所谓的谈判根本不存在。

China also has a long-term interest in making its economy less dependent on exports and decreasing its dependence on Western technology. 

So China is in no hurry to end the current stand-off, a fact that is now making Trump extremely nervous.

He's doing the same thing now, issuing fantasy statements about how a trade deal with China is imminent. Despite Trump's claim that Chinese officials have "reached out" to him a number of times and his insistence that active talks are going on "every day," there are no negotiations going on at all.

特鲁克斯认为，与其说中美有谈判，倒不如说特朗普在自说自话。从宣布实施“对等关税”到仅48小时后豁免中国制造的电子产品，再到他最近在中国沉默时宣称将降低关税，特朗普一直在发出充满不确定性的信号。

特鲁克斯说：“你几乎能感受到恐惧的气息。如果你必须逼对方坐到谈判桌前，你就已经输了。”

"You can practically smell the fear. If you have to begin a negotiation by insisting that the other side come to the table, you've lost already."

特鲁克斯认为，特朗普虽然可以单方面取消对中国商品加征的关税，但中国不一定会马上做出回应。相反，中国可能选择让特朗普“慢慢煎熬”，一旦贸易中断，美国的货架将在几周内空荡荡，尤其是在圣诞季节的订单已基本完成的情况下。可以预见，一旦零售商取消了订单，“特朗普偷走了圣诞节”之类的标题将占据各大媒体头条。

“这一切表明，特朗普已经陷入了一个深不可测的坑，而中国毫无理由去帮他脱困。”特鲁克斯批评特朗普试图惩罚“不服从”他的中国，实际上这是对历史的无知和经济上的愚蠢表现。这对他个人以及美国来说，都会是代价沉重的一堂课。

It will be bad for America. Trump's effort to punish China for "defying" him was an essay in historical ignorance and economic foolishness. He is now getting schooled in real time. And it's going to be an expensive lesson, both for him and for us.

来源：国会山报