朋友圈里都是运费疯涨的信息,本章分析了最核心的船东涨价原因,这个是最全的,注译了中文。
1.European routes have been significantly affected by the crisis in the Red Sea, forcing ships to detour around Africa. The African route originally had limited capacity, but this year has seen an influx of vessels. Longer voyages and increased transshipment ports have led to more vessels needing to operate. Extended journeys coupled with port congestion have resulted in many containers not returning. This is also the main reason for the recent container shortage.欧洲航线因红海危机受到显著影响,迫使船只绕道非洲。非洲航线原本容量有限,但今年船只数量大增。更长的航程和增加的转运港口导致更多船只需要运营。长途旅行加上港口拥堵,导致许多集装箱无法返回。这也是近期集装箱短缺的主要原因。

2.The price increase in South America is mainly due to Brazil's and Mexico's plans to impose additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in July and beyond. Many automakers are desperately shipping to these regions without actual orders. According to a source, BYD has already shipped more than 100,000 vehicles! Electric vehicle companies have seized the majority of shipping resources. Many shipping companies withdrew vessels from running to West Africa for these large orders, leading to a general increase in rates in West Africa! These EV makers not only compete for shipping resources but also reportedly fill up destination ports' yards quickly with automobiles.南美价格上涨主要是因为巴西和墨西哥计划从7月起对中国电动汽车征收额外关税。许多汽车制造商在没有实际订单的情况下急于向这些地区发货。据消息人士透露,比亚迪已经运送了超过100,000辆车!电动汽车公司已经占据了大部分的运输资源。许多航运公司为了这些大订单撤回了前往西非的船只,导致西非的运费普遍上升!这些电动汽车制造商不仅争夺运输资源,而且据报道迅速填满目的地港口的场地。

3.The U.S. election has been claiming future tariffs of 50-60% on Chinese goods, nearing the election day, which has led some Chinese companies to increase their investment in South America! Additionally, many importers are stocking up in advance, causing the peak season to arrive early.美国选举即将到来,有声音称将对中国商品征收50-60%的未来关税,这导致一些中国公司增加了对南美的投资!此外,许多进口商提前囤货,使得旺季提前到来。

4.This is the real reason, shipping giants are taking advantage of the above reasons and actively and tacitly raising prices together!
这是真正的原因,航运巨头利用上述理由,积极并默契地共同提高价格!
Exporting companies need to plan their shipping schedules in advance, as everyone is scrambling for containers. Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) is also unstable. Chinese exporting companies already have low profits, and this time they have to endure the pain of being squeezed even more.出口公司需要提前规划他们的运输时间表,因为大家都在争抢集装箱。预计到达时间(ETA)也不稳定。中国出口公司的利润本已不高,这次他们不得不忍受更大的压榨之痛。

I sincerely hope that there will be an ethical company that can change the situation in shipping. I earnestly call on tech and capital moguls like Elon Musk and Warren Buffett to enter this industry and change the rules of the game, making shipping as simple as sending a parcel.我真诚地希望会有一个有道德的公司能够改变航运业的现状。我真诚地呼吁像埃隆·马斯克和沃伦·巴菲特这样的科技和资本大亨进入这个行业,改变游戏规则,使航运像寄送包裹一样简单。
分析的很全面,但不知道为什么,突然感觉货代如跳梁小丑一样,市场的一点波动都能成为媒体的狂欢,我们都在被情绪所驱动。
市场的微小波动,如同蝴蝶效应,往往能引起媒体的大幅关注和货代们的强烈反应。这种现象,虽然在一定程度上反映了我们对未来不安全感的共鸣,但也可能放大了我们对事件的情绪化反应。

其实如果理性的看待,作为业内人士,我们需要超越媒体狂欢和市场的短期波动,更加深入地分析和理解背后的根本原因。我们应该基于数据和事实,而不是情绪,来制定策略和应对措施,甚至应该是冷漠的忽视。市场总是在变,需求和供应也在不停地调整。面对这样的情况,保持耐心,关注长期的合作关系,而不仅仅是短期的利益。当市场波动时,尽量从客户的角度思考问题,帮助他们找到最合适的解决方案,确保他们的货物能够安全、及时地到达目的地,仅此。

