讲座主题
The Spillover of US Monetary Policy Uncertainty on Global Bank Lending
主讲人
中山大学管理学院（创业学院） 刘岩副教授
主持人
中国金融研究院徐彤副教授
时间
10月17日 上午10:00-11:00
举办地点
西南财经大学柳林校区格致楼618
主办单位
金融学院、中国金融研究院
主讲人简介
刘岩，中山大学管理学院（创业学院）副教授。主要研究领域为宏观经济学、金融中介理论、货币银行学、公司金融，主持“中国银行业数据库（CBD）”项目，主持国家自科面上项目（2项）、青年项目，作为子课题负责人或主要人员参与多项国家社科重大项目、国家自科重点项目、科技部重点研发计划项目。在《人民日报·内参》《经济研究》《管理世界》、Review of Economic Studies、Journal of International Economics等国内外期刊发表论文近30篇。获得2020年首届PwC3535年度最佳论文奖，并两次获得中国金融学年会最佳论文奖。
内容简介
Exploiting a recently available dataset of bank lending surveys over 44 countries, we establish a stylized fact that an increase in the US monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) leads to tightening of bank lending standards, hence credit supplies, in other countries on average, along with higher funding costs and contractions of the real economy. In particular, the spillover effect exists irrespective to the exchange rate regime. We develop a small open economy (SOE) general equilibrium model with financial frictions in foreign exchange markets to explain the stylized fact of MPU spillover. Limits of arbitrage in foreign exchange markets imply that a higher MPU in the US shrinks the risk-taking capacities of the banking sector in the SOE, and consequently tightens the lending standards and increases the funding costs to the real economy. An estimation of the model based on the indirect inference approach suggests that the recent spikes in the US MPU can exert a significant drag on the global economy.
初审：徐果 王宇皓 杨瑶
复审：董青马 谭敏
终审：兰敏 罗荣华
责编：吴哉璇
金融学院新媒体部
