以下文章来源于世界经济学文献，作者
【编者按】2024年世界经济学最佳论文TOP10候选论文和内容摘要，包括8个子学科的中文和英文部分，现陆续刊发于此，供评选专家索引和其他读者参考。每个学科的中文/英文候选论文各15篇，按截至2025年7月末的被引用量、被下载量（仅限中文论文）和发刊影响因子计算得分（其中论文被引用量和被下载量调整为月均数），排名最高的15篇论文纳入候选清单。今天发布的是国际投资学候选论文。
1 衣长军、赵晓阳(2024)：“数字化转型能否提升中国跨国企业海外投资效率”，《中国工业经济》，第1期，第150-169页。
跨国企业是构建新发展格局的重要纽带，数字化技术的广泛应用深刻影响跨国企业海外投资行为，如何提升跨国企业海外投资效率是学术界关注的重要问题。区别于以往宏观层面海外投资效率影响因素研究，本文利用手工整理的中国跨国企业海外投资数据，创新性地从数字经济视角考察了企业数字化转型对海外投资效率的影响及其作用机制，并进一步考察了董事会专业背景多样性的调节效应。研究发现，数字化转型显著提升了跨国企业的海外投资效率；董事会专业背景多样性增强了数字化转型对海外投资效率的提升效应。机制检验表明，数字化转型主要通过抑制管理层短视、提高企业风险承担水平、降低代理成本三个方面提升企业海外投资效率。同时，数字化转型对海外投资效率的影响因企业所有权性质、行业特征以及数字化转型维度的不同而存在差异，在非国有企业、制造业行业中数字化转型对海外投资效率的提升效应更为明显，管理层的数字化转型认知程度对海外投资效率的影响更加显著。本文提供了关于跨国企业层面海外投资效率影响因素的新经验证据，对于理解企业数字化转型如何提升海外投资效率具有重要的启示意义。
2 杨连星、王秋硕、韩彩霞(2024)：“数字贸易与跨国并购影响研究:理论机理与中国证据”，《数量经济技术经济研究》，第3期，第112-130页。
全球化进入“数字驱动贸易”时代，引发国际分工和全球价值链深刻调整，对中国高水平对外开放造成多重复杂影响。基于联合国贸易和发展会议数字贸易数据以及标普智汇并购数据，本文全面探究数字贸易对跨国并购的影响机理。本文一系列稳健性估计结果表明，数字贸易对跨国并购呈现显著促进效应。异质性分析发现，消费类电子产品和电子元件出口对跨国并购促进效应更大；相较于水平并购，数字贸易对垂直并购的促进作用更强；与南北国家及北北国家相对比，南南国家对的跨国并购受数字贸易正向作用更为显著。机制检验显示，数字贸易通过降低双边技术与制度距离，强化国家间要素禀赋差异进而促进跨国并购。进一步地，数字贸易有助于提升并购成效，在开放型模式下数字贸易对跨国并购的促进效应最大；中国情境下，相较于“走出去”，数字贸易对中国作为东道国跨国并购的促进作用更强。基于此，要注重发挥数字贸易赋能跨国并购的重要作用，促进高质量对外投资与高水平对外开放的协同，以此提升国际循环质量。
3 陈伟雄、郝涵宇(2024)：“ESG表现与企业‘走出去’:路径机制与实证考察”，《世界经济研究》，第3期，第19-33页。
推动降碳、减排、扩绿、增长协同发展是如期实现碳达峰、碳中和目标的重要抓手，企业作为国民经济的微观主体，可持续发展理念正潜移默化地影响其对外直接投资的垄断优势。企业环境、社会和治理(ESG)表现的提升可能成为“走出去”的新型优势。文章基于2010-2022年中国上市公司的面板数据，利用企业个体与时间双向固定效应，实证分析ESG表现的提升对企业“走出去”的影响。研究发现，ESG表现的提升可以显著而稳健地促进企业“走出去”,且各分维度中治理表现促进企业“走出去”的效果最显著，而环境表现与社会表现则相对较弱。政策冲击结果显示，《绿色信贷指引》能够准确识别ESG表现的提升与企业“走出去”之间的关系。异质性分析表明，企业所有制、规模、管理层的不同会使ESG表现的作用效果有所差异。调节效应显示，企业的融资约束、经营困境、效率问题会削弱ESG表现提升对企业“走出去”的促进效果。路径分析表明，ESG表现提升可以通过增加企业研发投入、提高企业全要素生产率和促进企业数字化转型来促进企业“走出去”。基于此，文章提出要促进ESG信息透明度、制定ESG相关激励措施、积极参与国际ESG倡议等建议。
4 彭晴、高凡、李杰(2024)：“看不见的数字屏障：数字服务贸易壁垒与全球跨国并购”，《中国工业经济》，第9期，第43-61页。
跨国并购是企业跨越传统贸易壁垒寻求海外市场扩张的关键方式之一。在数字经济时代,出于技术和数据的安全考虑，各国纷纷实施跨境数字监管条例,形成了新型的数字服务贸易壁垒。但是,跨国并购可以跨越这种新型贸易壁垒吗？本文利用2014-2021年OECD数据库与Zephyr全球并购交易库的合并数据，考察了数字服务贸易壁垒对全球跨国并购的影响。研究结果表明，东道国的数字服务贸易壁垒通过数据孤岛效应、算法逆向披露风险与双重技术门槛三个渠道抑制了企业跨国并购。其中，数字服务贸易壁垒对算法和数据的特殊要求是其区别于传统贸易壁垒的新机制。并且，数字服务贸易壁垒将传统的单一技术门槛拓展到包含常规技术与数字技术的双重技术门槛。进一步研究发现，在兼顾跨境数据安全的前提下，制度型开放应以协调为重心，即通过缩小数字监管规则差异或签订区域贸易协定来增强跨境制度协调，可在一定程度上削弱数字服务贸易壁垒对跨国并购的不利影响。此外，增强人际沟通、文本沟通和语言沟通的替代信息传递渠道是针对数字服务贸易壁垒的另一种应对之策。最后，本文从对接国际高标准经贸规则、共建“中式模版”和加入区域贸易协定三方面为中国从流动型开放向制度型开放转变提供了经验启示。
5 郭娟娟(2024)：“数字化转型如何影响企业OFDI行为：内在机制与经验证据”，《世界经济研究》，第2期，第63-77页。
文章基于2007-2017年Wind数据库、BvD-Zephyr数据库和FDI Markets数据库匹配得到的微观数据，实证考察了数字化转型对企业OFDI行为的影响。研究发现，数字化转型显著促进了企业OFDI倾向和能力，在克服内生性问题及进行一系列稳健性检验后，该结论依然成立。首先，数字化转型对高科技企业、非国有企业和工业企业尤其技术密集型企业OFDI行为的推动作用更明显；相较于绿地投资模式，数字化转型更有助于企业采取跨国并购方式进行对外投资。其次，数字化转型主要通过提高技术创新能力、减少融资约束水平促使企业OFDI。最后，数字化转型推动的OFDI提高了企业所在供应链下游环节的稳定性，但对供应链上游环节稳定性的影响十分有限。文章旨在为中国上市企业数字化转型和国际化选择策略提供新证据，并致力于为提高中国供应链稳定性提供政策建议。
6 彭水军、李之旭、黄鑫(2024)：“内资与外资的共生共赢——基于两个市场两种资源联动的价值链新核算框架分析”，《管理世界》，第4期，第27-51页。
增强两个市场两种资源联动效应，实现内外需、内外资的高水平协调发展，是中国畅通国内大循环、促进国内国际双循环良性互动的关键所在。本文使用OECD跨国企业活动分析数据库提供的区分内资和外资的国际投入产出表，提出了一个新的反映两个市场两种资源联动的国内价值链分解框架，定量分析两个市场两种资源的联动特征以及对经济增长的作用机制。研究发现，在面临外部风险和国内经济结构转型的过程中，内需潜力的逐渐释放是内外资实现增加值收益增长的重要支撑，相比外需而言，更具稳定性与可靠性；制造业外资企业倾向于在中国布局封闭式产业链，这一现象在中、高研发强度制造业中更为明显，但内外资合作分工模式占比在持续上升，这反映出内外资“竞争合作关系共存、分工合作逐步深化”的趋势。本文进一步采用结构分解分析（SDA）方法重点分析内外需市场变动、内外资企业关联变动的经济增长效应，结果表明，内需市场的规模扩大与结构优化对于促进内外资经济稳定发展具有重要作用，2010年之后内外资企业关联效应对于外资和内资经济增长的贡献也在逐渐增大，为新时期促进两个市场两种资源的联动和协调发展提供了经验证据。同时，本文结合结构路径分析（SPA）方法，围绕需求侧潜力释放与结构优化以及供给侧国际要素资源流入与内外资联动，探讨了促进两个市场两种资源联动与协调发展的关键增加值流转路径。本文为加快构建新发展格局、着力推动高质量发展提供了政策启示。
7 罗长远、陈智韬、李铮(2024)：“供应链网络、市场环境与中国企业‘抱团出海’”，《世界经济》，第7期，第3-32页。
本文聚焦中国企业以“抱团出海”方式进入发展中国家市场的经济现象，基于企业异质性和供应链网络构建理论模型，探讨了“抱团出海”与东道国市场环境的关系，并利用企业微观数据对研究假说进行了经验检验。研究结果表明，供应链网络投资可以推动企业到同一国家进行直接投资，而且这一作用在市场环境薄弱的东道国更为明显，说明“抱团出海”有助于企业克服东道国的市场不完备。此外，传导机制分析表明，供应链网络投资可以通过信息传递和产销支撑帮助企业克服东道国的市场不完备。企业异质性分析表明，“抱团出海”更有益于规模小、年龄轻、资本密集度低的企业。本研究加深了对企业“抱团出海”现象的理解，也为夯实国内供应链网络以推动企业健康和有序的“走出去”提供了政策启示。
8 陈福中、罗科、董康银(2024)：“外资嵌入国内大循环与制造业价值链功能升级”，《数量经济技术经济研究》，第10期，第46-68页。
外资是服务构建新发展格局的重要力量，其通过嵌入国内大循环、联结国际循环对中国制造业的价值链功能专业化特征产生深刻影响。本文基于区分企业所有制类型的生产分解框架，测度了外资嵌入国内大循环的增加值贡献，理论分析并实证检验了外资嵌入国内大循环对中国制造业价值链功能升级的影响及其作用机制。研究发现，活跃于国内大循环的外资能够显著促进中国制造业迈向价值链高端功能活动环节。机制检验强调，外资能够延长国内产业链长度、提升国内产业链完整度和获利度，进而推动制造业实现价值链功能升级。异质性分析显示，处于内资企业上游位置、服务国内供给端大循环、嵌入低技术密集型制造业、金融危机后的外资成分能够产生更明显的价值链功能升级效应。拓展分析表明，与国外企业的中间品后向关联可以进一步增强外资对中国制造业价值链功能攀升的积极作用。本文不仅验证了外资在畅通国内大循环中的突出作用，也凸显了外资在联通内外循环上的独特优势，从而为新形势下中国更大力度吸引和利用外资赋能制造业高质量发展提供了有力支撑。
9 李志远、赵永晗(2024)：“外商直接投资与中国产业结构升级——基于比较优势跃迁的视角”，《经济学(季刊)》，第5期，第1428-1443页。
本文利用海关数据测算中国比较优势跃迁格局，结合地级市统计和工商注册信息，识别外商直接投资对比较优势跃迁的影响。研究发现，2000-2009年中国比较优势跃迁程度稳步提升，比较优势跃迁格局呈现空间异质特征。比较优势跃迁可以反映本土产业结构突破路径依赖的优化升级和经济发展质量的提升。外商直接投资显著促进了比较优势跃迁。机制分析表明，外商直接投资通过带来外部先进知识冲击，促进微观企业投入结构调整，进而赋能宏观层面的比较优势跃迁。本文有助于深化理解外商直接投资对产业结构升级的影响，为更大力度吸引和利用外资，更好地促进高水平对外开放提供政策依据。
10 张硕、周梅芳、朱能高(2024)：“跨国公司外迁经济影响与应对政策效果评估——基于CGE模型的分析”，《数量经济技术经济研究》，第7期，第49-70页。
跨国公司外迁事关中国产业链安全和宏观经济稳定，然而对当前的外迁现实、宏观影响和政策应对效果进行科学量化的研究相对缺乏。本文以测度制造业跨国公司外迁为前提，识别外迁冲击路径，构建区分内外资企业的中国CGE模型模拟外迁的经济影响，并评估三类外迁应对政策的经济有效性。研究发现，2021年制造业跨国公司外迁行业平均外迁程度约为1.57%，其中高技术制造业外迁程度最大。在宏观影响上，跨国公司外迁对GDP(-1.17%)和就业（-0.78%）的影响较为可观，外迁下内需下降2.40%，净出口下降0.47%。在行业影响上，行业产出平均下降0.84%，受到技术溢出渠道切断效应负面冲击影响较大的内资企业及外迁程度较高的资本密集型、出口导向型和投资品行业外资企业产出受损严重，外迁程度较大行业的内资企业及受到外迁直接影响较小的外资企业产出小幅扩张。应对政策可以有效缓解外迁对国内经济、就业和内需的负面影响，提升高技术制造业外资企业产出，但也会导致通货膨胀、低端制造业及内资企业产出损失恶化等问题。不同稳外资政策的经济效果存在差异且有明显的行业及企业异质性，因此政策目标优先级不同，有效的应对政策选择需有所权衡。本文研究对提升政策制定的科学性和实现宏观经济稳定发展具有重要的现实意义。
11 严兵、吴琦琦、王乃合(2024)：“反倾销、贸易联系与企业对外直接投资”，《中国工业经济》，第5期，第60-78页。
反倾销提高了被调查国出口企业的贸易成本,通过贸易联系方式作用于企业国际化战略选择。本文运用横向外商直接投资理论和内部化理论分析了企业对外直接投资的跨越贸易壁垒效应,特别是依托第三国的贸易创造效应,然后运用多时点双重差分方法,从产品、企业和国家等多个维度深入探究反倾销对中国企业对外直接投资决策的影响。研究发现,反倾销提高了企业对外直接投资活动的概率。机制分析表明,遭受反倾销的产品贸易份额下降是企业开展对外直接投资的直接动因,而产品集中度的上升可以缓解贸易冲击造成的负面影响,企业生产率的提升则促进了对外直接投资。异质性分析表明,企业在开展对外直接投资时,倾向于采用跨国并购的投资模式,而外部市场重要性和嵌入度越高、融资约束越低以及发起反倾销调查国的市场规模越大、地理距离和制度距离越远,企业就越有动机利用对外直接投资跨越贸易壁垒。本文还发现,中国企业的对外直接投资产生了跨越贸易壁垒效应以及投资第三国的贸易创造效应。本文丰富了发展中国家的对外直接投资理论,为抵御贸易和投资风险提供了政策启示。
12 金祥义、张文菲(2024)：“人工智能与中国企业跨国并购：新一轮技术红利存在吗？”，《统计研究》，第9期，第115-125页。
人工智能发展产生的新一轮技术红利开始显现，成为构筑我国企业跨国并购竞争优势的核心模块之一。本文结合Zephyr全球并购交易数据库、国际机器人联合会数据库和国泰安上市公司财务数据库，并采用二元选择Probit模型就人工智能与企业跨国并购之间的关系展开系统分析。研究发现，人工智能是推动我国企业跨国并购的重要因素。异质性分析表明，人工智能发展能够促进技术红利替代人口红利，对不同企业跨国并购行为带来差异化影响。并且，机器代人能够促进企业劳动力结构优化，产生资源配置的倒金字塔效应。机制分析显示，用工成本削减效应、管理效率提升效应、聚集知识溢出效应是人工智能作用于企业跨国并购的具体机制。此外，本文在考虑跨国并购样本选取、核心指标稳健性、计量模型设定等多方面问题后进行稳健性检验，以及控制内生性问题后，人工智能发展对跨国并购的促进作用依然显著。
13 韩卫辉、张天硕、曲如晓(2024)：“数字化与对外直接投资新优势——基于我国A股上市工业企业的分析”，《统计研究》，第2期，第53-63页。
随着数字技术与实体经济深度融合，数字化已成为企业发展的新优势。本文基于2009-2021年我国A股上市工业企业样本，并匹配具有代表性的对外直接投资（OFDI）数据，研究数字化优势对我国企业OFDI的影响及其作用机制。研究发现，数字化能够显著且稳健地提高我国企业OFDI的可能性、投资广度和投资深度，进而提升我国OFDI的活力和韧性，并且解释力度高达企业OFDI传统优势研发密度的48.3%-53.8%。全要素生产率提升和海外经营成本降低是数字化优势促进企业OFDI的两条潜在机制。异质性分析表明，数字化优势的OFDI促进效应在绿地投资、传统行业和高竞争性行业中表现更加突出。此外，我国OFDI“走进东道国”过程中，跨国公司数字化优势与东道国数字化优势间的竞争效应大于互补效应，因而数字化优势对我国企业OFDI的正向作用在高数字化水平东道国的样本中受到抑制。本文研究结论对新形势下我国如何利用数字化优势推动高水平对外开放，构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局具有启示意义。
14 李光勤、邱欣悦(2024)：“双向FDI与全球价值链韧性：来自跨国数据的经验证据”，《世界经济研究》，第5期，第75-91页。
15 马述忠、吴鹏、房超(2024)：“国际海底光缆、双边信息流与中国跨境并购”，《世界经济》，第4期，第3-30页。
海底光缆是信息跨境流动最主要的载体，在数字经济时代具有重要战略意义。本文以亚非欧1号海底光缆开通为例，基于2009-2021年证券数据公司跨境并购数据，使用双重差分法从双边信息流视角考察了国际海底光缆建设对中国跨境并购的影响。研究发现，亚非欧1号海底光缆的开通显著促进了中国企业对直连国家的跨境并购。机制分析表明，亚非欧1号海底光缆通过增加中国与直连国家间的双边信息流动促进了企业的跨境经济活动。此外，海底光缆的促进作用对初始数字基础设施更差和网络自由度更高的国家更强，主要促进了高技术行业的并购。总之，中国主导建设的数字基础设施能弥合数字鸿沟，推动中国的高新技术“走出去”。
（二）英文论文
1 Amiti, M., Duprez, C., Konings, J., & Van Reenen, J. (2024). FDI and superstar spillovers: Evidence from firm-to-firm transactions. Journal of International Economics, 152, 103972.
Using firm-to-firm transactions, we show that starting to supply a ‘superstar’ firm (large domestic firms, exporters and multinationals) boosts productivity by 8% after three years. Placebos on starting relationships with smaller firms and novel identification strategies support a causal interpretation of ‘superstar spillovers’. Consistent with a model of technology transfer, we find bigger treatment effects from technology-intensive superstars and also falls in markups (in order to win superstar contracts). We also show that firms that start supplying superstar firms enjoy a ‘dating agency’ effect — an increase in the number of new buyers that is particularly strong within the superstar firm’s network. Taken together, the results suggest an important role for raising productivity through superstars’ supply chains regardless of multinational status.
2 Biermann, M., & Huber, K. (2024). Tracing the international transmission of a crisis through multinational firms. The Journal of Finance, 79(3), 1789-1829.
We show that multinational firms transmit shocks across countries through their internal capital markets. We study a credit supply shock to parent firms in Germany. International affiliates outside Germany supported their parents through internal lending, became financially constrained themselves, and experienced lower real growth. We find that managers were “Darwinist” with respect to international affiliates but ‘Socialist’ in the home country, that internal capital markets transmitted the credit shock more strongly than a nonfinancial shock, and that access to developed credit markets attenuated the real effects. The total real impact of shock transmission through multinationals on foreign economies was large.
3 Akcigit, U., Ates, S. T., Lerner, J., Townsend, R. R., & Zhestkova, Y. (2024). Fencing off Silicon Valley: Cross-border venture capital and technology spillovers. Journal of Monetary Economics, 141, 14-39.
The treatment of foreign investors is a contentious topic in U.S. entrepreneurship policy. We model a setting where foreign corporate investments in Silicon Valley may allow U.S. entrepreneurs to pursue technologies that they could not otherwise, but may also lead to knowledge spillovers. We show that despite the benefits from such inbound investments for U.S. firms, it may be optimal for the U.S. government to raise their costs to deter these investments. Using as comprehensive as possible a sample of investments by foreign corporate investors in U.S. start-ups, we find evidence consistent with the presence of knowledge spillovers to foreign investors.
4 Dyrda, S., Hong, G., & Steinberg, J. B. (2024). A macroeconomic perspective on taxing multinational enterprises. Journal of International Economics, 152, 104022.
We develop a general-equilibrium model to study the macroeconomic consequences of international profit shifting by multinational enterprises (MNEs). In our model, MNEs shift profits by exploiting intangible capital transfer pricing rules, which makes intangible investment more attractive and leads to higher output at home and abroad. We use the model to quantify the effects of two reforms proposed by the OECD: (i) reallocating MNEs’ profit tax bases to the countries where they sell their products; and (ii) a minimum global corporate income tax. Both reforms would reduce profit shifting substantially, but (i) would reduce global output whereas (ii) would have little macroeconomic impact. The reforms’ distributional implications would also be important. In high-tax countries, tax revenues would increase more than output declines, raising gross national income and enabling redistribution that could offset lower wages. In contrast, output and tax revenues would both drop in low-tax countries, significantly reducing national income.
5 Mensah, J. T., & Traore, N. (2024). Infrastructure quality and FDI inflows: Evidence from the arrival of high-speed internet in Africa. The World Bank Economic Review, 38(1), 1-23.
Does ambient infrastructural quality affect foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries? This paper investigates how the arrival of high-speed internet in Africa triggered FDI into the region. It also explores the role of complementary infrastructure, such as access to electricity and road connectivity, in amplifying the impact of internet connectivity on investment. To causally estimate impacts, the paper exploits plausibly exogenous variations in access to high-speed internet induced by the staggered arrival of submarine fiber-optic internet cables and spatial variations in terrestrial fiber cable networks across locations on the continent. Findings from the paper indicate that access to high-speed internet induces FDI, particularly in the service sector, with the finance, technology, retail, and health services subsectors as the main beneficiaries. Access to (hard) infrastructure, such as electricity and roads, amplifies the impact of internet connectivity on FDI, thus highlighting the role of complementarities in the impact of infrastructure. Further, the results suggest that improvement in quality of governance and increased performance of incumbent firms are plausible mechanisms.
6 Glennon, B. (2024). Skilled immigrants, firms, and the global geography of innovation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 38(1), 3-26.
This article begins with an overview of the policy environment in the United States and abroad for skilled immigration, with a particular focus on "supply-driven" versus "demand-driven" systems. The overview emphasizes that firms play a central role in the skilled immigration process in most countries. I then survey the ample evidence that skilled immigrants have a strong positive effect on firm outcomes, followed by a discussion of the many margins of adjustment that firms have when their access to skilled immigrants is affected by national immigration policy. Finally, given such margins of adjustment and the importance of skilled immigrants to firms, I consider how the policies that affect skilled migration shape the global geography and quality of innovation. I conclude by discussing policy implications and open questions. In particular, I emphasize that evaluations of the impact of skilled immigration should not be constrained within borders: immigration flows and national immigration policies affect the global geography of innovation and investment.
7 Basco, S., Felice, G., Merlevede, B., & Mestieri, M. (2024). Financial crises and the global supply network: Evidence from multinational enterprises. Journal of International Economics, 152, 103983.
This paper empirically examines the effects of financial crises on the organization of production of multinational enterprises. We construct a panel of European multinational networks from 2003 through 2015. We compute a multinational-specific shock based on the geographical structure of the network and the extent of the financial crisis in the countries belonging to the network. We document that multinationals facing a larger shock to their network experience lower growth in their number of affiliates and a deterioration in parents’ performance. This adjustment to the financial crisis is accounted for by multinationals with initially more leveraged parents, and it is exacerbated in networks more dependent on external financing. Moreover, initially more leveraged affiliates are more likely to be dropped from a multinational network. These findings lend support to financial frictions shaping multinational activity.
8 Gorodnichenko, Y., Kukharskyy, B., & Roland, G. (2024). Cultural distance, firm boundaries, and global sourcing. Journal of Development Economics, 166, 103175.
Casual observation suggests that cultural differences play an important role in business transactions, yet systematic evidence on this relationship is scarce. This paper provides a novel investigation of the effect of cultural distance on multinational firms’ decisions to integrate their cooperation partners into firm boundaries, rather than transact with independent companies at arm’s-length. To guide our empirical analysis, we develop a simple theoretical model which suggests that (i) cultural distance between contracting parties decreases the relative attractiveness of integration, and (ii) this effect is mitigated in more productive firms. We test these predictions using extensive product-, industry-, and firm-level data. We find a robust negative relationship between cultural distance and the relative attractiveness of integration. In line with our theoretical predictions, we also find that the effect of cultural distance on firm boundaries is less pronounced the higher firm’s productivity.
9 Damgaard, J., Elkjaer, T., & Johannesen, N. (2024). What is real and what is not in the global FDI network? Journal of International Money and Finance, 140, 102971.
Macro statistics on foreign direct investment (FDI) are blurred by offshore financial centers with enormous inward and outward investment positions. This paper uses new data sources, both macro and micro, to estimate the global FDI network while disentangling real investment and phantom investment and allocating real investment to ultimate investor economies. We find that Phantom FDI into corporate shells with no substance and no real links to the local economy accounts for around 40 percent of global FDI. Ignoring Phantom FDI and allocating Real FDI to ultimate investors increases the explanatory power of standard gravity variables by around 25 percent.
10 Dyrda, S., Hong, G., & Steinberg, J. B. (2024). Optimal taxation of multinational enterprises: A Ramsey approach. Journal of Monetary Economics, 141, 74-97.
What is the optimal design of the international corporate tax system? We revisit this classic question in a multi-country general equilibrium model that incorporates three key features of the modern globalized economy: multinational production; intangible capital; and international profit shifting. Our model’s competitive equilibrium is inefficient due to an externality that arises from international spillovers in intangible investment. In the absence of profit shifting, there is little, if anything, a Ramsey planner can do with corporate income taxes to improve the allocation of intangible investment across countries. However, profit shifting allows the planner to use corporate income taxes to internalize the externality and achieve an efficient allocation of intangible investment. To quantitatively investigate the properties of the Ramsey planner’s optimal policy in a more realistic setting, we extend our model to an environment with firm heterogeneity and selection into multinational production. Without spillovers, it would be optimal to shut down profit shifting as much as possible. With spillovers, it would be optimal to allow MNEs to continue to shift profits, and if the planner is restricted to Pareto-improving policies, it would be optimal to allow even more profit shifting than under the status quo.
11 Xiang, X., Liu, R., & Luo, W. (2024). Pollution haven or pollution halo? Testing direct and spillover effects of FDI. China Economic Review, 88, 102254.
FDI has direct effects (effects on foreign-invested firms) and spillover effects (effects on other firms) on pollution emissions. To split out these two effects, this paper divides firms into different clusters based on their industries and regions, then considers the interactions among firms in a cluster following the framework of Hudgens & Halloran (2008). We find that varying ratios of FDI firms within a cluster influence the magnitude of effects on firms' pollution emissions. Specifically, this paper finds inverted ‘U-shaped’ direct effects of FDI on firms' pollution emissions. We also find ‘U-shaped’ spillover effects and total effects: once the proportion of FDI firms within a cluster exceeds a specific threshold, we observe a decline in both spillover effects and total effects of FDI in mitigating pollution emissions.
12 Belderbos, R., Castellani, D., Du, H. S., & Lee, G. H. (2024). Internal versus external agglomeration advantages in investment location choice: The role of global cities’ international connectivity. Journal of International Business Studies, 55(6), 745-763.
Global location choices for foreign direct investments by MNCs aim to benefit both from the advantages of collocation with other activities of the firm (internal agglomeration) and the advantages of proximity to local industry clusters of similar activities (external agglomeration). We submit that there are important trade-offs between internal and external agglomeration because internal knowledge transfer associated with collocation of various value-chain activities of the MNC is confronted with greater risk of knowledge spillovers to rival firms if there is a substantial local cluster. Moreover, we argue that the international connectivity of a location reduces the importance of local agglomeration as a driver of investment location decisions because connectivity allows the MNC to reap benefits from agglomeration at a distance through the (temporary) transfer of people and knowledge. Connectivity changes the trade-offs between internal and external agglomeration because it enhances the spatial reach of internal agglomeration more than external agglomeration. The influence of connectivity is greater for service-related value-chain activities than for production-related activities. We find support for these hypotheses in an analysis of 38,873 greenfield cross-border investment decisions across diverse value-chain activities and industries in 71 global cities, 2008–2016.
13 Sethuram, S., & Gaur, A. (2024). Foreign divestment: the missing piece in international business scholarship. Journal of International Business Studies, 55(8), 1038-1047.
As international business (IB) scholars seek to invigorate the field and steer it away from what some deem a “research coma” resulting from a narrowing scope, the significance of foreign divestment (FD) has once again been relegated amidst other pressing topics. We advocate for elevating FD to the same level of importance as foreign direct investment (FDI). Despite emerging a decade after seminal contributions on FDI, FD has suffered from a notable lack of attention in IB research and educational curricula. However, FD, like FDI, is a common practice among firms and is gaining prominence in light of recent disruptions such as geopolitical conflicts, economic decoupling, digital transformation, and growing skepticism towards globalization. We identify two main setbacks to overcome: the persistent view of FD as merely a misstep in firms' internationalization strategies, and its perception as a subordinate aspect within broader themes of internationalization, including emerging topics such as deglobalization and decoupling. As we elaborate in this commentary, delving into FD at a more granular level can uncover disruptive spillovers that require pushing the boundaries of extant theorizing in IB; neglecting FD leaves the field incomplete and hampers its ability to fully grasp the complexities of global business dynamics.
14 Zheng, H., & Mao, M. Q. (2024). Fintech mergers and acquisitions. Journal of International Money and Finance, 143, 103076.
Fintech firms have emerged as popular targets for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in response to the remarkable growth of the fintech industry. However, different acquirers assess the benefits of these deals differently, and the actual benefits realized may diverge from the expected synergies. This study scrutinizes the value of fintech M&As for three types of acquirers: U.S. public banks, nonbank financial institutions, and tech companies. The short-term market reaction to fintech M&As is negative for acquiring banks and insignificant for nonbank financial institutions and tech companies, which is not explained by deal-level or acquirer-level characteristics. Moreover, using a matched sample, we find limited evidence suggesting that fintech M&As contribute to improvements in acquirers’ subsequent operating performance, innovation, or business diversification strategy. Overall, the evidence suggests that fintech acquirers, particularly acquiring banks, may potentially overestimate the benefits of such deals. Our study calls for improved guidelines to ensure more informed decision-making in fintech M&As.
15 Jiang, K., Keller, W., Qiu, L. D., & Ridley, W. (2024). International joint ventures and internal technology transfer vs. external technology spillovers: Evidence from China. Journal of International Economics, 150, 103939.
We study the economics of international joint ventures using administrative data for China. We first show that foreign investors choose Chinese partners that are relatively large, productive, and more innovative to set up their joint venture. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we then provide evidence that joint ventures lead to domestic benefits in the form of productivity and technological spillovers to both the Chinese partners in joint ventures as well as other domestic Chinese firms. Exploiting the easing of joint venture requirements as China entered the WTO in the year 2001, we further show that intraindustry spillovers from joint ventures to other domestic firms increased in the wake of China’s WTO accession, consistent with gains from foreign technology rising due to enhanced commitment through the rules-based WTO system. Our results shed new light on the efficacy of FDI performance requirements as well as on claims regarding international technology transfer that underpinned the China–US trade war.
