2025 New Trend: China-Vietnam Foreign Trade Explosion Guide

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2025 New Trend: China-Vietnam Foreign Trade Explosion Guide

D.one外贸说

2025-09-11

Introduction: The Fortune Code of the Vietnamese Market

When Shenzhen bosses move garment factories to Hanoi, and electric two-wheeler sales sprint to 586,000 units with a 14.8% growth rate, this "golden springboard" caught between Sino-US supply chains is writing new trade logic with $15 billion monthly import volume (China takes the lion's share) and $12 billion export record to the US.

Data Bombs💥
• 15.8 million middle-class households, nearly tripling in the past decade, will account for over half the population by 2030
• $84.7 billion imports from China in H1 (+31%), $70.9 billion exports to US (+34%)
• E-commerce market size surging to $878 billion, Shopee dominates 60% market share, with "women's handbags" searched 17.3 million times monthly

"Stop obsessing over cut-throat competition in Europe and America!" Those Vietnamese Gen Zers complaining about 3-day delivery being too slow not only account for 62% of beauty consumption but also took outdoor sports online market to 23.5% share in Southeast Asia - their wallets are more eager to "cash in" than you think.

01 US-Vietnam Tariff Agreement: The 40% Punitive Tariff Lifeline

⚠️ Policy Trap Identification: Label-switching re-exporters, tax bills can buy 3 Vietnamese factories

US Customs imposes 40% punitive tariffs on "origin laundering" goods, triggered by:

Label game death spot: Only simple processing (e.g., furniture assembly, clothing tailoring). A Nike subcontractor had tariff costs surge $35/pair due to 28% local shoemaking rate, leading to 500,000 cancelled orders
Value content trap: Vietnamese local materials + labor cost < 35%. Vietnam's trade surplus with US surged 25% in H1, with many enterprises stuck in the 32%-34% "grey zone"
Tariff code change blind spot: First 6 digits of HS code unchanged between imported raw materials and exported finished products (e.g., parts → finished product testing)

Compliance Lifeline✅
Must simultaneously meet:
✅ Local value content ≥35% (materials + labor)
✅ First 6 HS code digits cross-chapter change (e.g., fabric → finished garments)

📊 Enterprise Response Strategy Matrix

Enterprise Type	Core Challenge	Recommended Strategy	Case
SMEs	High re-export risk	Abandon Vietnam re-export, shift to Africa/South America (only 10% tariff)	None (label-switching re-export = 40% tariff risk)
Leading enterprises	Compliance costs	Technology upgrade + core process transfer (e.g., PCB mounting)	Haileide achieved 40% localization rate, enjoying 20% tariff reduction

one's rant: "Instead of playing the 'screw loosen-tighten' assembly game in Vietnam, learn from TCL selling lightning-proof TVs out of stock - technological barriers are the real moat."

02 Key Category Opportunities: Practical Guide from Eyebrow Dye to Camping Gear

💄 Beauty & Personal Care: How did eyebrow dye top TikTok in six months?

"Vietnamese girls' eyebrows are more afraid of water than phone screens" - sweatproof and waterproof formulas + small-sized trial packs are the key to breaking through.

3 Practical Tips

BPOM certification lightning pass✅

Submit PIF document (ingredients + production process) + Indonesian labels, cost approx. $2,000/category, 6-month cycle
Pitfall: Labels must avoid "medical" or "therapeutic" terms, otherwise certification rejected

KOL cooperation golden rule💰

Prioritize mid-tier influencers (100,000-500,000 followers), with 37% higher engagement rate than top-tier, commission controlled at 8%-12%
Case: Rock Sweetheart eyebrow dye achieved $1 million GMV in 3 months through "waterproof test + beach scene" short videos

Alibaba International Station bonus🎁

New beauty merchants enjoy first 3 months search ranking boost

🏍️ Auto Parts & Electronics: Vietnamese repair motorcycles more frequently than dating

63 million motorcycle ownership (average 1 per 2 people), creating rigid demand for brake pads, tires and other wearing parts.

3 Practical Tips

Standard adaptation to Japanese vehicles🚗

Traditional parts must meet JIS standards (e.g., brake pads for Honda/Yamaha), new energy parts focus on sodium-ion battery cooperation

Procurement model combination📦

Quarterly orders lock prices for core parts like tires, emergency replenishment for pre-monsoon replacement peak, reserve 8%-12% for hidden costs

SNI certification money-saving guide💸

Type 5 certification approx. $5,000, factory audit focuses on production records, bonded warehouses in Bac Ninh/Hai Phong shorten delivery cycle

🏕️ Smart Home: Lightning protection design more important than price

"Vietnamese ask 'is it lightning-proof?' before 'how much?'" - With 150 thunderstorm days annually, lightning-proof circuit design + 110V-240V wide voltage are rigid demand.

Risk Radar Chart

✅ Low risk: Smart small appliances (projectors, air fryers), XGIMI's Vietnam factory has annual capacity of 1 million units, overseas revenue accounts for 31.89%
⚠️ High risk: Large furniture (easily identified as re-export), 12% of aluminum doors/windows under HSN code 7610 inspected in H1

Platform operation: Participate in Shopee VCX coupon activities (only 2% fee), with "spend $200 get $30 coupon" promotion, camping gear set average order value can reach $300

👓 Eyewear: Fashion solutions under $30

"Young people wear glasses not to see clearly, but to 'frame' fashion" - fashion frames + blue light blocking lenses with combined annual sales of $198 million.

Bestseller Formula

Product Combination	Pricing	Core Logic
Prescription contact lenses	≤$30	Contact lens demand growing 5.23% annually
Sports sunglasses	$25-30	Outdoor boom + UV protection rigid demand

03 Vietnamese Buyers: Negotiations like Tom Yum Kung, can't rush

🌶️ Procurement decision logic: 3 visits + 2 samples ice-breaking process

1st visit: Talk about TikTok live e-commerce (2025 sales soared 2.3x) or local festivals
2nd visit: Bring 100,000-200,000 VND samples (~$2.8-$5.6), this price segment's e-commerce share rose from 24.2% to 26.3%
3rd visit: Provide improved samples (e.g., sun protection upgrade for outdoor products), GYMPRO yoga accessories captured 4.796% market share through this

🛍️ Product adjustment guide: Even garbage bags print K-pop stars

Category	Adjustment Points	TikTok Hot Elements
Beauty	Halal certification + small size	Waterproof test videos
Apparel	Coffee yarn fabric + motorcycle sun protection styles	Local influencer same style
Home	Lightning-proof circuits + New Year blessing packaging	"Rainy day usage tutorials"

04 Practical Tools: Avoid pitfalls from certification to exchange rates

📜 Certification & Compliance: BPOM certification like chasing Vietnamese girls - prepare 6 months in advance

Process Template

Stage	Time	Key Nodes	Risk Tips
Document pre-review	Week 1-2	VCCI acceptance receipt	Missing items must be supplemented within 5 working days
Laboratory testing	Week 3-8	Test report draft	rectification takes 2 weeks for failed items
Factory audit	Week 9-10	Non-conformity list	Severe non-conformities result in immediate termination

💻 E-commerce Platform Selection: Commission cost calculation formula

Platform Decision Tree
✅ Shopee: Nanning warehouse SLS order commission 14.6% + 3,000 VND/order infrastructure fee (effective July 1)
🔄 TikTok Shop: 4% commission + 1% personal tax, 20%+ return rate but 6-8% live conversion rate
⚠️ Lazada: High-value goods declaration fee 94,000 VND/package (orders over 1 million VND)

VCX activity gameplay: Set "spend $200 get $30 coupon", with camping gear set live streaming, single session viewership exceeds 50,000 with 8% conversion rate

💱 Exchange Rate Hedging: Is Vietnamese Dong NDF=No Deposit Fun? Don't be silly, this is your seatbelt

Operation Steps

Open bank account → Deposit 5%-10% margin → Lock exchange rate
Case: ICBC Zhuhai helped pharmaceutical enterprises lock $5 million NDF, avoiding 2.8% depreciation loss in H1
SMEs recommended forward exchange settlement, enterprises with annual transaction >$10 million use CCS tools

Logistics solution: "Nanning warehouse pre-positioning + Shopee 3PF" saves 40% time compared to pure cross-border direct shipping, avoiding 2.5% withdrawal fee

05 Action List & Trend Forecast

📅 Three-Month Crash Course

Day 1-30: Obtain BPOM certification, materials include ISO 9001 certificate + Indonesian labels
Day 31-60: Shopee product testing, screen potential models with >5% click rate, control influencer review ROI at 1:2
Day 61-90: Sign agents at Ho Chi Minh exhibition, prioritize partners with pharmacy/supermarket channels

🔮 Future Trends: Next explosion category hidden in shopping carts

New energy accessories: Sodium-ion battery cooperation (CATL technology export)
Health monitoring devices: Blood pressure monitors $35-50, H1 sales surged 210%
Pet products: Enclosed cat litter boxes with "odor-proof design + 1/3 Japanese brand price" saw 3x purchase volume in 6 months

one: Honest Words for Foreign Trade SOHOs

"Instead of fighting for prices on Chinese 1688, come to Vietnam and build 'small but beautiful' - that SOHO selling custom glasses cloth now has Vietnamese celebrities asking for collaborations."

Success Formula Breakdown
• Product: Micro-innovation (anti-fog coating + embroidered logo)
• Localization: HALAL certification + rainy season packaging improvement
• Risk control: NDF hedge exchange rates + formal customs clearance

Vietnam market isn't a trend, but an orchard needing watering and fertilizing. Planting "differentiation + localization" seeds now will yield fruits next year - after all, not every market lets small SOHOs leverage celebrity resources with a single product.

Cross-border Payment / International Platform Onboarding

/ Sourcing in China / Global Customer Outreach

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