The Coasean Singularity? Demand, Supply, and Market Design with AI Agents
科斯奇点？——由AI代理驱动的需求、供给与市场设计
Peyman Shahidi, Gili Rusak, Benjamin S. Manning, Andrey Fradkin, John J. Horton #34468
AI agents—autonomous systems that perceive, reason, and act on behalf of human principals—are poised to transform digital markets by dramatically reducing transaction costs. This chapter evaluates the economic implications of this transition, adopting a consumer-oriented view of agents as market participants that can search, negotiate, and transact directly. From the demand side, agent adoption reflects derived demand: users trade off decision quality against effort reduction, with outcomes mediated by agent capability and task context. On the supply side, firms will design, integrate, and monetize agents, with outcomes hinging on whether agents operate within or across platforms. At the market level, agents create efficiency gains from lower search, communication, and contracting costs, but also introduce frictions such as congestion and price obfuscation. By lowering the costs of preference elicitation, contract enforcement, and identity verification, agents expand the! feasible set of market designs but also raise novel regulatory challenges. While the net welfare effects remain an empirical question, the rapid onset of AI-mediated transactions presents a unique opportunity for economic research to inform real-world policy and market design.
AI代理，即能够代表人类委托人进行感知、推理和行动的自主系统，正有望通过显著降低交易成本来深刻改变数字市场。本章从经济学角度评估这一转变所带来的影响，并以消费者为导向的视角，将代理视为能够直接进行搜索、谈判和交易的市场参与者。从需求侧来看，代理的采用体现了派生需求：用户在决策质量与努力减轻之间进行权衡，而这种权衡的结果取决于代理的能力以及任务的具体情境。从供给侧来看，企业将设计、整合并实现代理的商业化，其结果则取决于代理是在平台内部运行还是跨平台运行。在市场层面上，代理通过降低搜索、沟通和契约成本带来了效率提升，但同时也可能引发拥塞、价格模糊等新的市场摩擦。通过降低偏好识别、契约执行和身份验证的成本，代理扩展了可行的市场设计集合，但同时也带来了新的监管挑战。虽然总体福利效应仍需通过实证研究加以验证，但AI介导交易的迅速兴起为经济学研究提供了一个独特的契机，使其能够为现实世界的政策制定和市场设计提供有价值的指导。
The Effects of Immigration Enforcement on Student Outcomes in a New Era of Immigration Policy in the United States
美国移民政策新时代中移民执法对学生的影响
David N. Figlio, Umut Özek #34452
This study presents the first evidence, to our knowledge, of the effects of the surge in interior immigration apprehensions in 2025 in the United States on student academic performance using detailed student-level administrative records from Florida. We find evidence that immigration enforcement reduced test scores for both U.S.-born and foreign-born Spanish-speaking students while also reducing the likelihood that these students are involved in disciplinary incidents in schools. Both of these effects are more pronounced for students in middle and high schools.
本研究首次提供了证据，利用佛罗里达州详细的学生级行政记录，分析了2025年美国境内移民拘捕激增对学生学业表现的影响。结果表明，移民执法的加强导致了美国本土出生及外国出生的西班牙语学生的考试成绩下降，同时也降低了这些学生在学校中涉及纪律事件的可能性。这两种效应在初中和高中学生中表现得更加显著。
Probability Pricing
概率定价
Eduardo Dávila, Cecilia Parlatore, Ansgar Walther #34448
This paper develops probability pricing, extending cash flow pricing to quantify the willingness-to-pay for changes in probabilities. We show that the value of any marginal change in probabilities can be expressed as a standard asset-pricing formula with hypothetical cash flows derived from changes in the survival function. This equivalence between probability and cash flow valuation allows us to construct hedging strategies and systematically decompose individual and aggregate willingness-to-pay. Four applications examine the valuation of changes in the distribution of aggregate consumption, the efficiency effects of varying performance precision in principal-agent problems, and the welfare implications of public and private information.
本文提出了“概率定价”（probability pricing）的概念，将传统的现金流定价方法扩展，用以量化个体对概率变化的支付意愿。研究表明，任何概率的边际变化，其价值都可以表示为一种标准的资产定价公式，其中的假设现金流由生存函数变化所导出。这种概率估值与现金流估值之间的等价关系，使我们能够构建相应的对冲策略，并系统性地分解个体与总体的支付意愿。四个应用案例分别研究了：总体消费分布变化的估值，委托-代理问题中绩效精度变化的效率影响，以及公共信息与私人信息的福利含义。
Demand Elasticity in Dynamic Asset Pricing
动态资产定价中的需求弹性
Zhiguo He, Péter Kondor, Jessica S. Li #34450
Standard demand elasticity estimation treats investors' demand slopes as stable objects that can be traced out by exogenous residual supply shifts. We show this identification strategy fails in dynamic settings: supply shocks cause demand curves to tilt and shift through general equilibrium effects. The mechanism is intuitive—investors' demand depends on the entire distribution of current and future returns, including volatility, covariances, and correlations with investment opportunities. Supply shocks that change today's prices inevitably reshape future return distributions, moving the demand curve itself. We develop and calibrate a dynamic model to quantify this mismeasurement. The measured slope is approximately 40% of its conceptual counterpart, implying that demand curves are substantially steeper than estimated. This distortion operates through two channels: endogenous risk (altered volatility and covariances) and amplified intertemporal hedging (changed correlation! with investment opportunities). The distortion remains sizable even for infinitesimal or purely transitory shocks.
传统的需求弹性估计方法通常将投资者的需求曲线斜率视为稳定特征，可以通过外生的剩余供给变动加以识别。然而，我们的研究表明，这一识别策略在动态环境中并不成立：供给冲击会通过一般均衡效应引起需求曲线的倾斜与位移。其内在机制直观明了——投资者的需求取决于当前与未来收益的整体分布，包括波动率、协方差以及与投资机会的相关性。供给冲击改变了当期价格的同时，也不可避免地重塑了未来收益的分布，从而使需求曲线本身发生变化。我们建立并校准了一个动态模型，用以量化这种误测的程度。结果显示，实测的需求曲线斜率仅约为理论值的40%，这意味着实际的需求曲线比估计结果陡峭得多。这种偏差主要通过两个渠道产生：其一是内生风险效应（即波动率与协方差的变化），其二是跨期对冲效应的放大（即与投资机会相关性的改变）。即便在极微小或完全暂时性的冲击下，这种扭曲仍然具有相当的影响。
Restrictive Marriage Migration Policies and Family Outcomes
限制性婚姻移民政策与家庭结果
So Yoon Ahn, Darren Lubotsky #34458
As cross-border marriages rise, many governments have tightened rules on who can marry across borders, often in the name of promoting integration. Cross-border couples tend to have high divorce rates, which hinders successful assimilation. This paper provides the first evidence on how restrictive marriage migration policies affect family outcomes of migrants. We exploit a 2014 reform in South Korea that introduced pre-entry requirements for marriage visas, with language proficiency as the key component. Using rich administrative and survey data, we show that the reform led to a sharp temporary decline in cross-border marriages, improved migrants’ language skills, and increased educational attainment among both migrants and their Korean spouses. Comparing marriage cohorts immediately before and after the reform cutoff date, we find that cumulative divorce rates fell by 37% in the first 12 months and by 12% in the first 48 months, primarily due to language-based selection ra! ther than demographic factors. Our evidence indicates that improved communication enhanced marital surplus and highlights the potential positive impact of selective admission policies that target civil and cultural assimilation.
随着跨国婚姻的增加，许多政府以促进社会融合为名，日益收紧跨国婚姻的相关规定。跨国婚姻伴侣通常具有较高的离婚率，这在一定程度上阻碍了其社会同化的进程。本文首次提供了关于限制性婚姻移民政策如何影响移民家庭结果的实证证据。研究利用了韩国在2014年实施的一项改革——该改革为婚姻签证引入了入境前要求，其中语言能力是核心条件。基于丰富的行政与调查数据，研究发现该改革导致跨国婚姻数量在短期内急剧下降，同时提升了移民的语言水平，并提高了移民及其韩国配偶的教育程度。通过比较改革临界日期前后的婚姻群体，我们发现，改革后结婚者的累计离婚率在婚后12个月内下降了37%，在婚后48个月内下降了12%，其主要原因是语言能力带来的选择效应，而非人口学因素。研究结果表明，沟通能力的提升增加了婚姻的整体效用，并凸显了以促进公民与文化同化为目标的选择性准入政策所具有的潜在积极影响。
The Mortgage Debt Channel of Monetary Policy when Mortgages are Liquid
当抵押贷款具备流动性时：货币政策的抵押债务传导渠道
Matthew Elias, Christian Gillitzer, Greg Kaplan, Gianni La Cava, Nalini V. Prasad #34461
We examine what is widely considered to be one of the strongest channels of monetary policy transmission into household spending – the effect of changes in mortgage payments when mortgage rates are linked to the short-term policy rate. Using bank transactions data from Australia, we analyze a cumulative 425 basis point increase in the central bank policy rate, which caused mortgage repayments for homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages to increase by $13,800. We find little change in the spending of adjustable-rate mortgagors relative to fixed rate mortgagors. This is because adjustable-rate mortgages come with redraw facilities that make mortgages liquid, and households had large excess buffers due to pandemic-era transfer programs and restrictions on spending. Our findings demonstrate that the direct effects of a monetary policy tightening on household spending need not be large.
本文研究了货币政策传导至家庭支出的最强渠道之一——即当抵押贷款利率与短期政策利率挂钩时，抵押贷款还款变化对家庭支出的影响。研究基于澳大利亚的银行交易数据，分析了央行政策利率累计上调425个基点的情形，该上调使浮动利率抵押贷款借款人的年度还款额增加了约13,800美元。结果显示，相较于固定利率借款人，浮动利率借款人的支出几乎没有显著变化。其原因在于，浮动利率贷款通常配有“再提取功能”（redraw facilities），使抵押贷款具有一定的流动性；同时，家庭因疫情期间的财政转移支付和消费限制而积累了大量超额储备。研究结论表明，货币政策收紧对家庭支出的直接影响可能并不显著。
Complexity Theory and Economic Inequality
复杂性理论与经济不平等
Steven N. Durlauf, David McMillon, Scott Page #34381
We analyze the potential for complexity theory to produce insights that elucidate the evolution of socioeconomic inequality and point toward effective policies. We position complexity theory as a complement to more traditional economic approaches. Economic models of inequality can fall into four broad categories: models based on individual attributes and technologies, social interaction models, intergenerational models of transfer, and models of institutional and social structure. Within each of these categories, complexity theory can enhance traditional theory. It is of particular value in helping to distinguish between bottom-up systemic and top-down structural causes of inequality. Complexity theory can further enrich our understanding of economic inequality by adopting a complex adaptive system of systems approach in which economic, social, political, and psychosocial systems interact with one another and with institutional and social structures to produce robust inequal! ity, particularly on racial lines.
本文探讨了复杂性理论在揭示社会经济不平等的演化机制及制定有效政策方面的潜在作用，并将复杂性理论定位为对传统经济学方法的重要补充。经济不平等的理论模型大致可分为四类：基于个体特征与技术的模型、社会互动模型、代际传递模型，以及制度与社会结构模型。在这四种框架中，复杂性理论都能为传统理论提供有益的扩展与深化。复杂性理论尤其有助于区分不平等的“自下而上”系统性成因与“自上而下”结构性成因。复杂性理论还可以通过引入“复杂适应性系统的系统”视角，进一步深化我们对经济不平等的理解。在这一框架下，经济、社会、政治与心理社会系统彼此交互，并与制度及社会结构相互作用，从而共同形成并维系某些深层次的不平等现象，尤其是在种族层面上更为显著。
The Roots of the Modern American Presidential Campaign
现代美国总统竞选的起源
Francisco Pino, Laura Salisbury #34447
Campaign tours have become an essential component of U.S. presidential elections. How and when did they begin? We explore the early history of in-person political campaigning in the United States by reconstructing the first presidential campaign tours from historical newspaper clippings. We analyze the decision to campaign, the determinants of where candidates campaigned, and the outcomes of early in-person campaigns. We document an evolving norm of campaigning. This norm evolved well after the expansion of the railroad network. While a national railroad network was a necessary precondition for campaigning to evolve, our findings point to other factors – such as growing urbanization and the decline of federal patronage machines – playing a more important role in the growth of campaigning. We find evidence that being visited on a campaign tour increased voter turnout in a county. However, we do not find a clear effect of campaign visits of a given candidate on his elector! al performance.
竞选巡回活动已成为美国总统选举中不可或缺的组成部分。那么，这一传统是如何产生的，又始于何时？本文通过重建早期的总统竞选巡回活动，并利用历史报刊资料，探讨了美国面对面政治竞选的起源与发展。研究分析了候选人决定是否开展竞选、选择竞选地点的决定因素，以及早期面对面竞选的结果。研究发现，美国政治竞选活动的规范经历了逐步演变，而这一演变发生在全国铁路网络扩张之后较长的一段时间。虽然全国铁路网络的建立是竞选巡回得以发展的必要前提，但我们的发现表明，其他因素——例如城市化程度的提高以及联邦任人唯亲体制的衰落——在竞选活动的发展中发挥了更为关键的作用。此外，我们发现，当某个县被纳入竞选巡回行程后，该地区的选民投票率显著上升。然而，我们并未发现候选人到访某地与其在该地区选举表现之间存在明确的因果关系。
Breaking Parity: Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Currency Premia
打破平价：均衡汇率与货币溢价
Mai C. Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Oleg Itskhoki #34443
We offer a unifying empirical model of covered and uncovered currency premia, interest rates and spot and forward exchange rates, both in the cross section and time series of currencies. We find that the rich empirical patterns are in line with a partial equilibrium model of the currency market, where hedged and unhedged currency is supplied by intermediary banks subject to value-at-risk balance-sheet constraints, emphasizing the frictional nature of equilibrium currency premia and exchange rate dynamics. In the cross section, the excess supply of local-currency savings is the key determinant of low relative interest rates, negative covered and uncovered currency premia, cheap forward dollars; and vice versa. In the time series, covered currency premia change infrequently and in concert across currencies, driven by aggregate financial market conditions. In contrast, uncovered currency premia move frequently in response to currency-specific demand shocks, which we capture wit! h the dynamics of net currency futures positions of dealer banks. Exchange rate depreciations in response to negative shifts in currency demand are followed by small persistent appreciations that generate predictable expected returns necessary to ensure intermediation of currency demand shocks, irrespective of their financial or macroeconomic origin. Changes in net futures positions of dealer banks account for most of the variation in the spot exchange rate for every currency.
本文提出了一个统一的实证模型，用以解释覆盖与非覆盖货币溢价、利率、即期汇率与远期汇率之间的关系，涵盖货币横截面和时间序列两个维度。研究发现，这些复杂的经验特征与一种部分均衡的货币市场模型相符：在该模型中，受“风险价值”（Value-at-Risk）约束的中介银行同时提供对冲与非对冲的货币头寸，这凸显了均衡货币溢价与汇率动态的摩擦性本质。在横截面维度上，当地货币储蓄的超额供给是导致相对利率较低、覆盖与非覆盖货币溢价为负、美元远期价格偏低的关键因素；反之亦然。在时间序列维度上，覆盖货币溢价变化不频繁，且各货币间往往同步波动，其主要驱动力为整体金融市场状况。相比之下，非覆盖货币溢价变化更为频繁，主要响应货币特定的需求冲击，这种动态可通过银行交易商的净货币期货头寸加以刻画。当货币需求下降导致汇率贬值时，随后会出现小幅且持续的升值，从而产生可预测的预期回报，以实现货币需求冲击的中介功能——无论其源于金融还是宏观经济因素。研究进一步发现，银行交易商净期货头寸的变化能够解释几乎所有货币即期汇率的主要波动。
Positioned at Extremes: Future Job Placements of Immigrant Students at U.S. Colleges
极端定位：在美国高校就读的移民学生未来就业去向
Francis M. Dillon, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr, Andrew J. Wang #34440
Immigrant students who attend U.S. colleges are disproportionately employed in either large firms—especially multinationals—or small firms and self-employment. Using linked Census and longitudinal employment data, we trace the jobs taken by college students in 2000 during the 2001-20 period and evaluate four mechanisms shaping sector and firm size placement: geographic clustering, degree specialization, firm capabilities/visas, and ethnic self-employment specialization. Degree fields predict large firm and MNE placement, while ethnic specialization explains small firm sorting. Immigrant students who remain in the U.S. earn more than their native peers, suggesting the segmentation reflects productive sorting rather than blocked opportunity.
在美国高校就读的移民学生在就业上呈现出明显的两极化倾向：他们要么进入大型企业，尤其是跨国公司；要么进入小型企业或从事个体经营。本文利用链接的美国人口普查数据和纵向就业数据，追踪了2000年入学的大学生在2001至2020年间的就业情况，并评估了四种影响其行业与企业规模选择的机制：地理集聚、专业领域、企业能力/签证限制以及族裔自营职业特化。研究发现，学位专业能够预测学生进入大型企业或跨国公司，而族裔特化则解释了他们在小型企业的就业选择。移民学生若留在美国，其收入普遍高于本土同龄人，这表明这种就业分布反映的是高效的分工排序，而非机会受阻。
Path Dependence in the Labor Market: The Long-run Effects of Early Career Occupational Experience
劳动力市场中的路径依赖：早期职业经历的长期影响
Jesse Bruhn, Jacob Fabian, Luke Gallagher, Matthew Gudgeon, Adam Isen, Aaron R. Phipps #34463
We study the causal effect of different early career occupational experiences on labor market outcomes. To do so, we pair over two decades of administrative tax data with internal personnel records from one of the largest employers of young adults in the United States: the US Army. Enlistees work in a diverse and varied set of occupations, including non-combat roles like mechanics, legal services, financial specialists, cooks, dental hygienists, police officers, and network/computer specialists. Occupational eligibility is determined by test score cutoffs which we leverage in a series of 35 regression discontinuity designs. We find that a typical early career occupational experience generates a substantial amount of path dependence, with point estimates that suggest a 19p.p. increase in the likelihood of being observed in an identical or closely related occupation as much as 20 years later. The corresponding impact of different occupations on earnings are highly heterogeneou! s, yet predictable: long-run changes in the average earnings of the occupations applicants are pushed into, and pulled out-of, can explain over 60% of the causal variation across cutoffs, with point estimates that suggest improvements in occupational earnings premia translate dollar-for-dollar into economic success. Taken together, our results highlight the importance of early career occupational experience as a key channel for promoting long-run well-being among young adults who are not college bound.
本文研究了早期职业经历对劳动力市场结果的因果影响。为此，我们将超过二十年的行政税务数据与美国青年群体最大的雇主之一——美国陆军的内部人事记录进行了匹配。新兵在军队中从事多样化的职业，包括非战斗岗位如机械师、法律服务人员、财务专员、厨师、牙科保健员、警务人员以及网络/计算机专家等。职业资格由考试成绩门槛决定，我们在35个回归不连续性设计中利用这一特征进行分析。研究发现，典型的早期职业经历会产生显著的路径依赖：估计结果显示，即便20年后，个体进入相同或密切相关职业的可能性仍增加约19个百分点。不同职业对长期收入的影响存在高度异质性，但具有可预测性：申请者被安排或调离的职业的平均长期收入变化，可以解释超过60%的门槛之间的因果差异，估计结果表明，职业收入溢价的提升几乎完全转化为个体的经济成功。总体来看，研究结果强调了早期职业经历的重要性，尤其对于未接受大学教育的年轻人而言，这是促进其长期福祉的关键渠道。
Welfare Implications of Increased Retailer Participation in SNAP
零售商参与SNAP增加的福利影响
Anne T. Byrne, Xiao Dong, Jessie Handbury, Erik James, Katherine Meckel, Andrés C. Rovira #34467
Governments often rely on private vendors to deliver in-kind benefits, yet little is known about how vendor participation affects markets and welfare. We study a sharp rise in retailer participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) during the Great Recession, driven largely by non-grocer formats. Linking administrative, retail, and household data, we find that sales increased 6% and variety 4% at adopting stores, with no price effects and only modest spillovers to local competitors. A revealed-preference framework shows that, while consumers value adoption at some chains, overall welfare gains for SNAP households were modest-equivalent to a 1.8% reduction in travel costs-with little effect on non-SNAP households.
政府通常依赖私营供应商来发放实物福利，但供应商参与度如何影响市场与整体福利仍知之甚少。本文研究了大萧条期间零售商参与补充营养援助计划（SNAP）激增的情况，这一增长主要由非杂货类零售形式推动。通过将行政、零售及家庭数据进行关联分析，结果显示，参与的门店销售额提高了6%，商品品类增加了4%，而价格未发生显著变化，对当地竞争者的溢出效应也仅为有限。基于揭示偏好的分析框架显示，虽然消费者对部分连锁店的参与表示认可，但SNAP家庭总体福利提升有限，相当于旅行成本下降约1.8%，对非SNAP家庭几乎没有影响。
Investor Beliefs and Expectation Formation
投资者信念与预期形成
Stefano Giglio, Matteo Maggiori, Joachim Rillo, Johannes Stroebel, Stephen P. Utkus, Xiao Xu #34446
This article reviews the literature that uses survey data to study expectation formation among investors. We begin by outlining methods for eliciting investor beliefs and summarizing key empirical patterns documented in recent work. Highlighting the persistent cross-sectional heterogeneity in expectations, we then review evidence on the determinants of beliefs, including a new analysis of belief reactions to the tariff announcement in April 2025. Next, we examine how expectations shape financial decision-making, emphasizing the systematic but muted sensitivity of outcomes to belief changes. We conclude by pointing to promising directions for future research on belief measurement, the determinants of expectations, and their implications for policymakers.
本文回顾了利用调查数据研究投资者预期形成的相关文献。文章首先介绍了获取投资者信念的方法，并总结了近期研究中记录的主要经验模式。强调了预期在横截面上的持续异质性后，我们进一步回顾了信念的决定因素，包括对2025年4月关税公告的信念反应的新分析。接着，文章探讨了预期如何影响金融决策，指出尽管信念变化会系统性地影响结果，但这种敏感性相对较弱。最后，本文提出了未来研究的若干有前景方向，包括信念测量方法、预期的决定因素，以及其对政策制定者的潜在影响。
Affordable Housing During Childhood Improves Long-term Outcomes of Women and their Children
儿童时期获得经济适用房能改善女性及其子女的长期发展结果
Janet Currie, Jessica Van Parys #34464
The Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) Program is the largest federal affordable housing program in the U.S. Yet, little is known about its impacts on children and families. This paper shows how LIHTC exposure during childhood affects women’s health outcomes in early-adulthood, as well as the health of their infants. Using geocoded Florida Natality data for 1980-2024 and addresses for LIHTC units we study women born to mothers without any college education between 1980-1999. We use a matching model to compare women born into Census tracts that receive LIHTC during their childhoods to women born into Census tracts without LIHTC during their childhoods. These women and their infants are then observed in adulthood when they first give birth in Florida. We find that a standard deviation increase in childhood LIHTC exposure improves the maternal health index and the infant health index by a small but statistically significant 0.007 standard deviations, and improves an index ! of maternal SES by 0.005 standard deviations. Given that the average treated tract in our sample has only 0.023 LIHTC units per resident, there is considerable room for increasing exposure. LIHTC exposure during childhood improves outcomes the most for Black women, consistent with Black women being more likely to live in LIHTC units, and also more likely to live in Census tracts that receive LIHTC.
低收入住房税收抵免（LIHTC）项目是美国规模最大的联邦经济适用房计划，但其对儿童和家庭的影响仍知之甚少。本文研究了儿童时期接触LIHTC对女性成年早期健康以及其婴儿健康的影响。研究利用1980-2024年佛罗里达州带地理编码的出生数据及LIHTC单元地址，聚焦1980-1999年间出生于母亲未接受大学教育家庭的女性。通过匹配模型，我们将儿童时期生活在获得LIHTC的普查区的女性与儿童时期生活在未获得LIHTC的普查区的女性进行比较，并追踪她们及其婴儿在成年后首次生育时的健康和社会经济状况。研究发现，儿童时期LIHTC接触标准差增加一单位，母亲健康指数和婴儿健康指数均小幅但具有统计显著性地提高0.007标准差，母亲社会经济地位指数提高0.005标准差。考虑到样本中平均受益普查区每位居民仅拥有0.023个LIHTC单元，儿童时期的接触程度仍有很大提升空间。研究还显示，LIHTC接触对黑人女性及其子女的影响最大，这与黑人女性更可能居住在LIHTC单元以及更可能生活在获得LIHTC的普查区相一致。
From Asia, With Skills
来自亚洲的技能人才
Gaurav Khanna #34449
This paper examines the rise of high-skill migration from Asia to the United States over the past three decades and its consequences for both sending and receiving economies. Between 1990 and 2019, migrants from five Asian countries—India, China, South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines—accounted for over one-third of the growth in US software developers and a quarter of the increase in scientists, engineers, and physicians. Drawing on census microdata, visa records, and administrative sources, I show how US demand for talent in information technology, higher education, and healthcare interacted with Asia’s demographic and educational transformations to generate this migration boom. Policy reforms (notably the H-1B, F-1, and J-1 visa programs) and sectoral shifts—such as the internet revolution, declining public support for universities, and aging-related healthcare demand—created persistent needs for foreign students and workers. Asian economies were uniquely posit! ioned to meet this demand through rapid tertiary expansion, strong STEM institutions, English proficiency, and diaspora networks. These inflows boosted US innovation, entrepreneurship, and service-sector productivity while fostering “brain gain” and “brain circulation” in Asia. Together, these trends reveal how talent flows from Asia have become central to the structure and growth of the modern US economy.
本文研究了过去三十年亚洲高技能移民赴美的趋势及其对输出国和接收国经济的影响。1990年至2019年间，来自印度、中国、韩国、日本和菲律宾的移民贡献了美国软件开发人员增长的三分之一以上，以及科学家、工程师和医生增长的四分之一。基于人口普查微观数据、签证记录及行政资料，本文分析了美国对信息技术、高等教育和医疗领域人才的需求，如何与亚洲的人口和教育结构转型相互作用，推动了这一移民潮。政策改革（尤其是H-1B、F-1和J-1签证项目）以及行业变革——如互联网革命、高校公共资助下降及与人口老龄化相关的医疗需求——持续创造了对外国学生和劳动力的需求。亚洲经济体凭借高等教育的快速扩张、强大的STEM教育机构、英语能力以及侨民网络，独特地满足了这一需求。这些人才流入不仅提升了美国的创新能力、创业活力和服务业生产率，也促进了亚洲的“人才增益”和“人才循环”。总体而言，这一趋势表明，来自亚洲的人才流动已成为现代美国经济结构与增长的核心要素。
Leaving Money on the Dashboard: Price Dispersion and Search Frictions on Uber and Lyft
留在仪表盘上的钱：Uber与Lyft的价格分散与搜索摩擦
Jeffrey Fossett, Michael Luca, Yejia Xu #34441
We document price differences for identical trips on Uber and Lyft, based on an audit of the two platforms. While price dispersion exists in the market, device-level data show that only 16.1 percent of consumers opening one app also open the other. Our estimates suggest that the modest frictions involved in comparison shopping increase platforms’ gross booking volume by over $300 million annually in New York City alone. While price-comparison engines could in principle reduce frictions, Uber’s API terms of use limit such services, reducing riders’ ability to price compare.
本文基于对Uber与Lyft（美国两大主要的网约车平台）的审计，记录了相同行程在两平台上的价格差异。尽管市场上存在价格分散，但设备级数据显示，仅有16.1%的消费者在打开一个应用时也会打开另一个。研究估计显示，这种比较购物的轻微摩擦，使得仅在纽约市，平台的总预订额每年就增加超过3亿美元。尽管价格比对引擎理论上可以降低这些摩擦，但Uber的API使用条款限制了此类服务，从而削弱了乘客的价格比较能力。
Motives and Constraints in the Implementation of Argentina’s 2017 Tax Reform
阿根廷2017年税改的动机与约束
Santiago Afonso, Sebastian Galiani #34442
This paper examines the motives, constraints, and sequencing behind Argentina’s 2017 tax reform, drawing on the authors’ direct involvement in its design and implementation. We document how a large inherited fiscal imbalance, a disinflation program that mechanically raised real pension spending under the pre-existing indexation rule, minority status in Congress, and limited administrative capacity jointly narrowed the feasible policy set. Within those constraints, the reform aimed to be near-revenue-neutral while rebalancing the system toward investment and employment: phasing down corporate rates with dividend taxation and inflation adjustment, reducing the labor wedge at the bottom via a per-worker deduction, rationalizing VAT and excises (including carbon and health-motivated taxes), and coordinating with provinces to cap and de-cascade the turnover tax (ISIB) through a Fiscal Consensus. We trace how coalition politics and sectoral vetoes reshaped the package, why for! ward guidance and escape clauses were embedded ex ante, and how the 2018 sudden stop, followed by policy reversals, limited the reform’s realized growth dividend. We draw four lessons: credibility is a fiscal instrument; provincial coordination beats technocratic perfection; discretionary levers invite rent-seeking; and targeting informality and compliance margins yields higher returns than blunt rate changes. The analysis offers a pragmatic template for tax reform under macroeconomic fragility, federal fragmentation, and state-capacity constraints.
本文探讨了阿根廷2017年税改的动机、约束及实施顺序，基于作者在设计和执行过程中的直接参与。研究记录了多种因素如何共同缩小了可行政策空间：长期积累的财政失衡、原有指数化规则下的去通胀计划导致养老金实际支出自动上升、国会少数派地位以及有限的行政能力。在这些约束下，税改旨在实现接近财政中性，同时通过激励投资与就业实现制度再平衡：分阶段降低企业税率并调整股息税及通胀影响、通过按工人扣除降低低端劳动税楔、合理化增值税与消费税（包括碳税和健康导向税），并通过财政共识与各省协调，限制并消除营业税（ISIB）的层叠效应。研究还追踪了联盟政治与部门否决权如何重塑税改方案，分析了为何在设计初期嵌入前瞻指引和退出条款，以及2018年的“突然停止”与随后政策逆转如何限制了税改的实际增长收益。本文总结四点经验：信誉是一种财政工具；省级协调胜过技术上的完美设计；自由裁量权易引发寻租；针对非正规经济和合规边际的政策回报高于粗暴的税率调整。分析为在宏观经济脆弱、联邦分权及国家能力受限的环境下实施税改提供了务实的参考框架。
Then and Now: A Look Back and Ahead at the Federal Budget
过去与未来：联邦预算回顾与展望
Alan J. Auerbach, William Gale #34455
It is well-understood that the U.S. faces an unsustainable fiscal future. We review historical budget trends and basic fiscal processes. We provide new estimates of the budget outlook, incorporating the recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and finding that the debt-GDP ratio will rise to 183% in 2054 under the OBBBA as legislated and to 199% if the temporary tax and spending provisions are made permanent. These figures compare to a current debt-GDP ratio of about 100% and a pre-OBBBA CBO analysis earlier this year that projected the 2054 debt-GDP ratio to be 154%. We estimate a fiscal gap – the permanent tax or spending changes needed to keep the 2054 debt-GDP ratio at its current level – to be about 3.4% of GDP if OBBBA is extended. We discuss the economic and political ramifications of debt and different ways to address the fiscal situation.
美国面临不可持续的财政前景已是广为人知的事实。本文回顾了历史预算趋势和基本财政流程，并提供了对预算前景的新估计，纳入了近期通过的《一揽子美好法案》（OBBBA）。结果显示，在OBBBA按现行立法执行的情况下，到2054年债务占GDP比率将升至183%；如果临时税收与支出措施永久化，该比率将升至199%。相比之下，目前债务占GDP比率约为100%，而今年早些时候国会预算办公室（CBO）在OBBBA出台前的分析预测2054年该比率为154%。我们估计，为保持2054年债务占GDP比率在当前水平所需的永久性税收或支出调整（财政缺口）约为GDP的3.4%，假设OBBBA延续执行。文章还讨论了债务的经济与政治影响，以及应对财政状况的不同途径。
Does Public Health Insurance Cause Crowding Into Public Facilities and Informality? The Case of Seguro Popular
公共健康保险是否导致公共设施拥挤与非正规就业？——以墨西哥Seguro Popular为例
Janet Currie, Lucy G. Hackett, Fernanda Marquez-Padilla #34465
Many low and middle-income countries are working to expand health insurance to previously uncovered people by creating health insurance programs intended for low-income people who would otherwise lack insurance coverage. Two concerns have been raised about these programs. First, people may be “crowded out” of private facilities and into public ones, increasing public expense and possibly degrading care through crowding. Second, public insurance could encourage informality by reducing the gap in compensation between formal sector and informal sector workers. We examine these questions in the context of Mexico’s Seguro Popular (SP) using longitudinal administrative data on childbirth. We focus on women with more than one observed birth and ask how SP affects the choice of provider for those whose first observed birth was in a public hospital, a private hospital, or a separate system of hospitals serving formal sector workers. We also look at how SP affects the utilizatio! n of care and newborn health. Because SP enrollment is endogenous, we instrument it using the rollout of a second program, SMSXXI, that provided health care for young children and enrolled other family members in SP. We find that the expansion of SMSXXI increased SP coverage of pregnant women. This in turn led to a higher probability of delivering in a public hospital, especially among those who had previously delivered in a private hospital. We find little impact of SP enrollment on the utilization of care or newborn health, with the notable exception that women who previously delivered in a private hospital were more likely to start prenatal care in the first trimester when they switched to SP, indicating a greater willingness to seek preventive care when it is free.
许多中低收入国家正努力通过为低收入群体建立健康保险计划，将此前未被覆盖的人群纳入保险体系。这类计划存在两个主要担忧：一是人们可能从私人医疗机构“挤出”，转向公共机构，从而增加公共支出并可能因拥挤而降低医疗质量；二是公共保险可能鼓励非正规就业，因为它缩小了正规部门与非正规部门工人之间的报酬差距。本文以墨西哥的Seguro Popular（公共医疗保险计划，简写SP）为例，利用纵向行政生育数据研究上述问题。我们关注有多次出生记录的女性，分析SP如何影响首次分娩在公立医院、私立医院或专为正规部门工人服务的医院系统中分娩的女性的医疗机构选择，同时考察SP对医疗服务利用率及新生儿健康的影响。由于SP入保具有内生性，我们使用第二个计划SMSXXI（新一代医疗保险计划）的推广作为工具变量，该计划为儿童提供医疗服务，并将家庭其他成员纳入SP。结果显示，SMSXXI的推广提高了孕妇的SP覆盖率，从而增加了她们在公共医院分娩的概率，尤其是那些此前在私立医院分娩的女性。SP入保对医疗服务利用率或新生儿健康的总体影响不大，但值得注意的是，之前在私立医院分娩的女性在加入SP后更可能在孕早期开始产前检查，这表明当预防性医疗免费时，女性更愿意寻求相关服务。
The Implications of Sorting for Immigrant Wage Assimilation and Changing Cohort Quality in Canada
职业分布对加拿大移民工资同化及队列素质变化的影响
Steven F. Lehrer, Luke Rawling #34462
Immigrant integration is a central issue in policy debates, with wage assimilation serving as a key indicator of immigrants’ economic success. Using matched employer–employee data from Canada, we study how access to higher-paying firms affects the economic assimilation of immigrants. Immigrants are disproportionately concentrated in lower-paying firms, accounting for much of the observed inequality. Nearly half of this sorting occurs across industries, and both firm- and industry-level wage gaps stagnate after eight years, suggesting that further assimilation reflects human capital accumulation rather than improved firm access. Importantly, these disparities persist after controlling for estimates of worker skill, indicating barriers to high-paying firms rather than differences in human capital. The analysis further shows that Canada’s post-2015 immigration policy reforms significantly improved immigrant outcomes: the initial wage gap narrowed by 25–35%, with roughly! half of the improvement attributable to better allocation into higher-paying firms. Taken together, the findings highlight the critical role of firm sorting and its interaction with immigration policy in shaping the economic integration of immigrants.
移民融入是政策讨论中的核心问题，而工资同化是衡量移民经济成功的重要指标。本文利用加拿大配对的雇主—雇员数据，研究了进入高薪企业的机会如何影响移民的经济同化。研究发现，移民在低薪企业中的集中度较高，这是观察到的不平等现象的重要来源。约一半的职业分布差异发生在行业层面，并且企业和行业层面的工资差距在八年后趋于停滞，表明进一步的同化主要反映了人力资本积累，而非改善了对高薪企业的访问。值得注意的是，这些差异在控制了工人技能估计后仍然存在，说明存在进入高薪企业的障碍，而非单纯的人力资本差异。分析还显示，加拿大2015年后实施的移民政策改革显著改善了移民的经济结果：初始工资差距缩小了25–35%，其中约一半的改善可归因于更合理的高薪企业分配。总体而言，研究结果凸显了企业分布及其与移民政策互动在塑造移民经济融入中的关键作用。
Is Video Watching Bad for Kids? The Effect of Video Watching on Children's Skills
视频观看对儿童的影响：对技能发展的作用
Carolina Caetano, Gregorio S. Caetano, Débora Mazetto, Meghan Skira #34466
This paper documents video consumption among school-aged children in the U.S. and explores its impact on human capital development. Video watching is common across all segments of society, yet surprisingly little is known about its developmental consequences. With a bunching identification strategy, we find that an additional hour of daily video consumption has a negative impact on children’s noncognitive skills, with harmful effects on both internalizing behaviors (e.g., depression) and externalizing behaviors (e.g., social difficulties). We find a positive effect on math skills, though the effect on an aggregate measure of cognitive skills is smaller and not statistically significant. These findings are robust and largely stable across most demographics and different ways of measuring skills and video watching. We find evidence that for Hispanic children, video watching has positive effects on both cognitive and noncognitive skills—potentially reflecting its role in su! pporting cultural assimilation. Interestingly, the marginal effects of video watching remain relatively stable regardless of how much time children spend on the activity, with similar incremental impacts observed among those who watch very little and those who watch for many hours.
本文记录了美国学龄儿童的视频消费情况，并探讨其对人力资本发展的影响。视频观看在社会各阶层都很普遍，但其对儿童发展的具体后果却知之甚少。通过使用聚集识别策略，研究发现，每天额外增加一小时的视频观看会对儿童的非认知技能产生负面影响，包括对内化行为（如抑郁）和外化行为（如社交困难）的不良作用。在认知技能方面，视频观看对数学技能具有正向影响，但对综合认知技能指标的影响较小且不具统计显著性。这些结果稳健，在大多数人口统计特征以及不同的技能和视频观看测量方式下均基本一致。研究还发现，对于西班牙裔儿童，视频观看对认知与非认知技能均有正面影响，这可能反映了视频在促进文化同化方面的作用。有趣的是，无论儿童观看视频的时间长短，其边际效应相对稳定——少量观看和长时间观看的儿童所受到的增量影响相似。
Minimum Wages and Informality
最低工资与非正规就业
Ellora Derenoncourt, François Gerard, Lorenzo Lagos, Claire Montialoux #34445
How do minimum wages affect informality? We study the near-doubling of the real minimum wage from 2000 to 2009 in Brazil, where 46% of the workforce is informal. Using labor force surveys covering the informal sector, we show the minimum wage exhibits near full passthrough to informal employees working in formal firms, about half of all informal employees. The formal-to-informal reallocation elasticity with respect to the formal-wage is small: -0.28. Our findings illustrate how minimum wages can positively affect living standards for workers thought beyond the reach of labor law, a sizable share of the workforce in developing economies.
Artificial Intelligence, Competition, and Welfare
人工智能、竞争与福利
Susan Athey, Fiona Scott Morton #34444
We study how market power in artificial intelligence (AI) shapes wages and welfare in open-economy general equilibrium by treating AI as a priced, imported factor. Across three models, we separate technical efficiency from the impact of upstream price setting. In a two-traded-goods benchmark, the incidence of AI price changes depends on how sectoral skill intensity changes with AI prices; non-monotone intensity can generate “double harm” for unskilled workers (lower real wage after a large decrease in the price of AI, and real wage decreases further when the AI price rises as a result of market power). With one non-traded sector, we observe that the classic “Dutch disease” effect here would arise when one sector gets more productive and draws labor away from other sectors, creating scarcity and raising prices; but this is not what we expect from the introduction of labor-substituting AI. In contrast, our last model considers two non-traded sectors and CES/free entry,! and the opportunity for discrete adoption of technology that replaces unskilled labor from the AI-using sector. When AI reduces unit costs and increases variety, it will not pull U from non-tradables, instead it will displace workers from the AI-using sector and lower wage due to diminishing returns in alternative sectors. Strategic upstream pricing of AI then harms welfare through unit-cost (usage fees) and variety (access fees) channels, with income leakage abroad. We derive an adoption frontier tying feasible usage prices to displaced workers’ outside options and show a monopolist typically prices on this boundary; capping one instrument shifts rents to the other. Broad gains for the adopting country relies on pressure (or regulation) on both usage and access fees and as well as policy that supports productive absorption of displaced labor. The framework clarifies when AI can lower real wages and aggregate welfare despite efficiency gains.
本文研究了人工智能（AI）的市场力量如何在开放经济一般均衡框架下影响工资与社会福利，将AI视为有价格的进口生产要素。通过三个模型，我们将技术效率与上游定价的影响加以区分。在两类可贸易商品的基准模型中，AI价格变化的影响取决于各行业技能强度随AI价格的变化情况；当技能强度非单调变化时，非熟练工可能遭受“双重损害”——AI价格大幅下降后实际工资下降，而由于市场力量导致AI价格上升时，实际工资进一步下降。在包含一个非贸易部门的模型中，经典的“荷兰病”效应会出现在某一部门生产率提升并从其他部门吸引劳动力，导致其他部门劳动力稀缺、价格上升的情形，但这种效应并非劳动替代型AI引入所致。在第三个模型中，考虑两个非贸易部门、CES函数与自由进入，以及AI技术可离散采纳，能够替代AI使用部门的非熟练劳动力。当AI降低单位成本并增加产品多样性时，它不会从非贸易部门吸走劳动力，而是会替代使用AI的行业中的工人，并由于替代部门边际报酬递减而导致工资下降。随后，AI的上游战略性定价会通过单位成本（使用费）和多样性（准入费）渠道损害社会福利，并导致收入流失到海外。我们构建了一个采纳前沿，将可行使用价格与被替代工人的外部选择联系起来，显示垄断者通常在此边界定价；限制其中一种工具会将租金转移至另一种。对于采用国而言，实现广泛收益依赖于对使用费和准入费的监管或压力，以及支持被替代劳动力有效再就业的政策。该框架阐明了在效率提升的情况下，AI何时可能导致实际工资和整体福利下降。
The Economic Impact of Brexit
英国脱欧的影响
Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites #34459
This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a deca! de.
本文研究了英国2016年决定脱离欧盟（Brexit）的经济影响。利用自公投以来近十年的数据，我们结合基于宏观数据的模拟与通过“决策者小组”调查收集的微观数据估计。研究结果表明，到2025年，脱欧使英国GDP下降了6%至8%，且这一影响随时间逐步累积。投资下降了12%至18%，就业下降了3%至4%，生产率下降了3%至4%。这些显著负面影响反映了多种因素的叠加：不确定性上升、需求下降、管理时间转移以及脱欧过程拖延导致的资源错配加剧。将这些结果与同期预测进行比较——提供了宏观层面的罕见实证示例，以补充社会科学预测中日益丰富的微观文献——发现预测在五年范围内相对准确，但在十年期影响上存在低估。
Present Bias and Discount Rate Risk
当前偏差与贴现率风险
Lars A. Lochstoer, Stig R. H. Lundeby, Zhaneta K. Tancheva #34453
Recent evidence in the psychology literature suggests that individuals' degree of present bias varies with the state of nature and increases under stress. Consistent with this notion, we document, using survey data on individuals’ expected and realized consumption growth, that agents indeed tend to overconsume relative to their expectations and that the degree of such overconsumption is higher in bad times. We analyze the asset pricing implications of this bias and show that even if they control a small fraction of wealth, investors with time-varying degree of present bias cause substantial, priced discount rate risks that have first-order impact on the level and time-variation of asset risk premiums. The mechanism is distinct from that of models with time-varying preference parameters and that of models with biased expectations about aggregate outcomes.
心理学最新研究表明，个体的当前偏差程度会随环境状态变化，并在压力下增加。与此一致，本文利用关于个体预期与实际消费增长的调查数据发现，经济主体确实倾向于相对于预期过度消费，而且这种过度消费在经济不景气时期更为明显。我们进一步分析了这种偏差对资产定价的影响。研究显示，即使持有财富份额较小，具有时间变化的当前偏差的投资者也会引发显著的、可定价的贴现率风险，从而对资产风险溢价的水平及其随时间变化产生一阶影响。这一机制不同于具有时间变化偏好参数的模型，也不同于关于整体经济结果存在偏差预期的模型。
Branching Out: Capital Mobility and Long-Run Growth
分支拓展：资本流动性与长期增长
Sarah Quincy, Chenzi Xu #34457
We study the long-run effects of the first wave of U.S. banking market integration on capital mobility and manufacturing productivity. Using newly digitized bank and branch balance sheet data matched to state and county panels, we provide direct evidence that branching produced lasting productivity gains without aggregate capital deepening by leveraging internal capital markets to improve the geographic allocation of capital. Our novel ``deposit market access'' measure shows that bank funding grew most in capital-constrained counties within branching states. Both market access and border discontinuity designs indicate that branching’s organizational structure reduced capital allocation frictions to generate persistent growth.
本文研究了美国银行市场整合第一波浪潮对资本流动性与制造业生产率的长期影响。利用新数字化的银行及分支机构资产负债表数据，并与州和县面板数据匹配，研究提供了直接证据：分支拓展通过内部资本市场优化资本的地理配置，实现了持久的生产率提升，而未引发整体资本深化。我们提出的“存款市场准入”指标显示，在分支银行所在州的资本受限县，银行资金增长最为显著。无论是市场准入分析还是边界不连续性设计，都表明分支机构的组织结构减少了资本配置摩擦，从而推动了长期的持续增长。
People versus Places: Elite Persistence after the Fall of the Ming
人还是地域：明朝更替后的精英延续
Carol H. Shiue, Wolfgang Keller #34451
We study how elite power persisted through the Ming–Qing transition in Central China. Using genealogical microdata on married couples and their descendants, linked to measures of local elite influence, we estimate the effects of the Ming collapse (1368–1644) on families (people) and on regions (places). A family line-level treatment and control approach shows that elites experienced an immediate loss of influence, but their descendants recovered and consolidated elite status under the Qing (1644–1911). In contrast, a region-level design indicates that areas more heavily exposed to Ming-collapse destruction suffered persistent adverse outcomes. Evidence on career choice is consistent with a trauma-induced shift toward civil service examination careers, with stronger intergenerational transmission of exam-oriented norms in families more exposed to destruction. The results document adaptive persistence of elite families despite regime change, alongside lasting regional sc! arring, and highlight the role of cultural transmission in the persistence of elite status.
我们研究了精英权力在明清更替期间如何在中国中部地区得以延续。利用已婚夫妇及其后代的族谱微观数据，并与地方精英影响力指标相结合，分析明朝衰落（1368–1644）对家庭（个人）与地区（地域）的影响。基于家族谱系的处理与对照分析显示，精英在明朝衰落后立即失去影响力，但其后代在清朝（1644–1911）逐渐恢复并巩固了精英地位。相比之下，地区层面的分析表明，受明朝衰落破坏影响较重的地区，经历了长期不利后果。关于职业选择的证据显示，家庭遭受破坏越严重，其后代更倾向于科举考试职业，并且科举导向规范的代际传递更为显著。研究结果表明，尽管政权更替，精英家族展现出适应性延续，而地区则留下持久创伤，同时凸显了文化传递在精英地位持续性中的关键作用。
Optimizing Retirement Financial Strategies: Integrating Annuities, Defined Contribution Plans, and Long-Term Care Costs
优化退休理财策略：年金、固定缴款计划与长期护理成本的整合
Vanya Horneff, Raimond Maurer, Olivia S. Mitchell, Julius Odenbreit #34460
Nursing home costs in the United States now exceed $100,000 per year, and government assistance programs such as Medicaid help out only when retirees are largely destitute. Moreover, health shocks driving the need for such care can arise suddenly in old age, are frequently permanent in nature, and can be associated with declining mental and physical abilities. These facts raise the important question of how households can best prepare to finance this final phase of life. Building on past research, we determine how retirees should manage payouts from defined contribution plans to balance trade-offs between consumption and health care cost shocks, using both retirement plan assets and annuitization. Our analysis explicitly integrates the role of taxes, required minimum distributions, bequest motives, and the possibility of retiree insolvency. We conclude that payout annuities, especially deferred and variable annuities, can be quite valuable for retirees, even when they face h! ealth shocks in later life.
在美国，养老院费用如今已超过每年10万美元，而政府援助项目如Medicaid仅在退休者几乎完全贫困时提供帮助。此外，导致需要长期护理的健康冲击通常在晚年突然发生，且往往具有长期性，同时伴随认知和身体能力下降。这些现实问题提出了一个关键问题：家庭应如何为生命的最后阶段做好最佳财务准备。本文在以往研究的基础上，分析了退休者应如何管理固定缴款计划的支出，以在消费需求与医疗费用冲击之间实现平衡，同时结合退休计划资产与年金安排。分析明确考虑了税收、最低必要分配、遗产动机以及退休者破产风险的作用。研究结果表明，即便面临晚年健康冲击，支出型年金，尤其是延期和可变年金，对于退休者仍具有显著价值。
The Consequences of Faculty Sexual Misconduct
教师性不当行为的后果
Sarah R. Cohodes, Katherine B. Leu #34456
Faculty sexual misconduct targeted at students is a widespread problem. The consequences of such incidents include direct harm to victims and may also entail a loss to science if students who encounter misconduct become discouraged from continuing their studies in their chosen field. We link publicly available information on degree completion by institution, academic field, and gender to a database of faculty sexual misconduct incidents verified in the media or court cases. Then, we employ a stacked event study approach to document the extent to which faculty sexual misconduct decreases in-field degree completion. Exposure to a field-specific faculty sexual misconduct incident decreases degree completion in that field by 3.4 percent four years after the incident. This decline is driven by incidents occurring after 2015, among which we observe a 7 percent decline in in-field degree completion. Students exit majors dominated by men, but this shift has little effect on predicte! d earnings because students shift away from both high- and low-earning majors.
针对学生的教师性不当行为是一个普遍存在的问题。这类事件不仅对受害者造成直接伤害，还可能对科学发展带来损失：遭遇不当行为的学生可能因此对所选学科失去兴趣，从而中断学业。本文将公开可得的按院校、学科和性别划分的学位完成数据，与通过媒体或法庭案件核实的教师性不当行为数据库进行关联。通过堆叠事件研究方法，我们量化了教师性不当行为对学科内学位完成率的影响。研究发现，在某一学科学习期间遭遇该学科教师的性不当行为，会导致该学科的学位完成率在事件发生四年后下降约3.4%。这一下降主要集中在2015年以后的事件，其中学科内学位完成率下降幅度达到7%。学生倾向于退出男性占主导的专业，但这一转变对预期收入影响不大，因为学生同时从高收入和低收入专业转移。
Does Regulation Distort Exit Decisions? Evidence from U.S. Power Plants
监管是否扭曲退出决策？来自美国发电厂的证据
Lucas W. Davis, Paige E. Weber #34454
Hundreds of power plants have closed in the United States since 2010, including 130+ gigawatts of coal and 50+ gigawatts of natural gas. In this paper, we highlight the potential for regulation to distort this type of exit decision. Using generator-level data from 2010–2023, we show that regulated units have been 45% less likely to exit than unregulated units. For unregulated units, exit decisions are made based on wholesale electricity prices, ongoing capital costs, and other traditional economic factors. In contrast, owners of regulated units are largely insulated from these factors and, in some cases, have a strong incentive to continue operating capital-intensive equipment. Previous work documents how this regulatory distortion affects investment decisions. Our paper emphasizes that these same incentives affect exit decisions as well.
自2010年以来，美国已有数百座发电厂关闭，包括超过130吉瓦的燃煤机组和50吉瓦以上的天然气机组。本文重点讨论监管可能对此类退出决策产生的扭曲效应。利用2010–2023年的机组级数据，研究发现，受监管的机组退出的可能性比未受监管的机组低45%。对于未受监管的机组，退出决策主要取决于批发电价、持续的资本成本及其他传统经济因素。相比之下，受监管机组的所有者在很大程度上不受这些因素影响，有时甚至有强烈激励继续运营资本密集型设备。先前研究已经表明，这种监管扭曲会影响投资决策；本文强调，这些激励同样会影响退出决策。