2025 Methanol Price Seasonality Analysis
Introduction: In recent years, methanol prices have exhibited clear seasonal trends, with factors such as spring maintenance, holidays, and traditional peak and off-seasons impacting supply and demand. However, in 2025, China's methanol prices significantly deviated from these patterns during certain periods. Beyond traditional factors, international geopolitical situations and persistently weak demand have contributed to changes in price movements this year.
Generally, methanol price fluctuations in China follow certain seasonal characteristics. An analysis of data from the Taicang region over the past decade reveals that prices are more likely to rise in January, February, April, September, and November, while declines are more common in March, May, June, and October. The performance in July, August, and December tends to be irregular.
While China's methanol market prices in 2025 retained some seasonal characteristics, they displayed notable deviations during specific periods, indicating a gradual weakening of seasonal patterns. Significant variations were observed in certain time frames, specifically a steeper decline in April-May, an unexpected rise in June, and underperformance in July-September. The reasons for these deviations are analyzed below:
Phase 1 (April-May): The sharp decline in methanol prices was primarily due to a drop in rigid demand in coastal regions and expectations of increased supply from the Middle East. In mid-to-late March, all methanol units in a Middle Eastern country resumed operations, leading to a significant increase in shipments in April. Market concerns over rising Middle Eastern supply overshadowed the ongoing destocking trend in April, which was not fully recognized by the market. Additionally, weak demand further contributed to the decline during this period. MTO units’ operating rates declined notably, and amid a generally weak macroeconomic environment, frequent feedstock price fluctuations made traditional downstream buyers cautious in their procurement, resulting in limited transaction volume. The combination of increased supply and reduced demand led to a downward price trend.
Phase 2 (June): Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East sparked concerns over overseas methanol supply and logistics. In June, Middle Eastern tensions fueled bullish sentiment in the methanol market, with investors worried about a potential escalation of the situation. Furthermore, an unexpected incident caused the temporary shutdown of 11 methanol units in a Middle Eastern country, with a total capacity of 17.16 million mt/a. Although these units were restarted shortly after, they operated at reduced rates. Additionally, due to temporary port inspections and extended shipping turnaround times, shipment schedules at some ports were delayed. As a result, total shipments from the Middle Eastern country declined significantly in June, further driving up methanol prices.
Phase 3 (July-September): Coastal inventories continued to rise, while downstream plants’ feedstock inventories remained high, leading to persistent bearish sentiment. As inventories in key global demand economies such as India, Europe, and Southeast Asia became increasingly saturated from June to July, weak end consumption and high overseas methanol inventory levels added pressure. From July to August, supply from South America, a Middle Eastern country, and Southeast Asia shifted, with a concentrated flow toward China. This led to a continuous accumulation of port inventories in China, with some major storage areas nearing full capacity. Downstream factories also maintained high feedstock inventories. Increased proactive selling at ports further contributed to the decline in coastal methanol prices.
In summary, while seasonal patterns have gradually weakened in recent years, and the market has become more sensitive to unexpected events and macroeconomic policies, the traditional seasonal trends still hold reference value for market transactions during regular periods.
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