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思维导图：
May，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽
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Leaders | The Israel-Hamas war
社论｜以色列-哈马斯战争
英文部分选自经济学人20251009社论
Leaders | The Israel-Hamas war
社论｜以色列-哈马斯战争
A euphoric Donald Trump wins a breakthrough in the Middle East
特朗普高调宣称在中东取得突破
A hostage release and Gaza ceasefire are welcome. But they are just the start
人质获释与加沙停火固然值得欢迎，但这仅仅是个开始
Two years after Hamas’s atrocities of October 7th 2023, the negotiations in Sharm el-Sheikh are on the cusp of delivering a ceasefire in Gaza and ending a war that has killed over 60,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians. Late on October 8th President Donald Trump wrote on social media: “I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first phase of our peace plan.” Hamas, Israel and Qatar confirmed the deal.
在哈马斯于2023年10月7日发动袭击两年后，沙姆沙伊赫的谈判有望达成加沙停火协议，结束这场已造成逾6万名巴勒斯坦人丧生（其中大多数为平民）的大规模冲突。10月8日深夜，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在社交媒体上发文：“我非常自豪地宣布，以色列与哈马斯已共同接受我方和平计划的第一阶段方案。” 哈马斯、以色列和卡塔尔方面随后确认了此项协议。
Representatives from Israel and Hamas had been holed up on different floors of a hotel in the Egyptian Red Sea resort, with negotiators from America, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey there to apply pressure. It took three days to hammer out this first stage of a deal. While the precise details are not yet public it is likely to lead to Hamas releasing the remaining 20-odd Israeli hostages who are still alive, a parallel release of a large number of convicted Palestinian prisoners by Israel, a flood of aid, and a partial pullback by the Israel Defence Forces from Gaza’s main cities, to what Mr Trump called “an agreed upon line”.
以色列和哈马斯的代表这几天一直被安置在埃及红海度假胜地一家酒店的不同楼层里，来自美国、埃及、卡塔尔和土耳其的谈判代表也在现场施压。经过三天紧张磋商，双方终于就协议第一阶段内容达成一致。虽然具体细节尚未公布，但预计哈马斯将释放剩下二十多名幸存以色列人质；以色列则会同时释放大量被关押的巴勒斯坦囚犯。协议还包括向加沙提供更多援助物资，以及以色列国防军从加沙主要城市部分撤出，退至特朗普所称的“约定防线”之外。
Given the excruciating difficulty of reaching agreement on just this, it is easy to be sceptical about a second phase now taking hold. This would create a technocratic government that rebuilds Gaza while excluding Hamas from power. Hamas would be disarmed and security provided by an international force. An oversight board would be created that Mr Trump is set to chair. The ultimate objective, what Mr Trump called “a strong, durable and everlasting peace” between Israel and all the Palestinian territories, including the possibility of a two-state solution, seems more daunting still.
鉴于第一阶段协议的达成已是殊为不易，外界对第二阶段计划能否有效落实普遍持观望态度。根据设想，第二阶段将组建一个负责加沙重建的技术官僚政府，同时把哈马斯排除在权力架构之外。哈马斯将被解除武装，当地安全将由一支国际维和部队负责。同时，计划设立一个监督委员会，主席一职拟由特朗普出任。至于特朗普所说的“强大、持久、永恒的和平”——让以色列与所有巴勒斯坦领土实现真正的和解，甚至可能迈向“两国方案”——目前看来，依然是前路漫漫，困难重重。
Yet a narrow opportunity has opened up. Around the world public focus on the conflict is greater than at any point since the talks that led to the Oslo accords in 1993 and 1995. In Donald Trump, America has a president who is unafraid to push Israel hard. The humbling of Iran’s regime and its violent proxies has removed a threat to the entire region. And the willingness of the Gulf Arab states not only to pay for Gaza’s reconstruction, but also to underwrite a peace process and, potentially, help provide security, is a huge step forward from the 1990s.
又一个历史性机遇的窗口正在敞开。自1993年和1995年促成《奥斯陆协议》的谈判以来，全球公众对巴以冲突的关注度此刻达到了顶峰。美国总统特朗普展现出不惧对以色列强势施压的鲜明姿态。伊朗政权及其代理武装力量的受挫，为整个中东地区消除了一大长期安全威胁。尤为重要的是，海湾阿拉伯国家不仅承诺出资重建加沙，更愿意为和平进程提供资金支持，甚至可能协助提供安全保障，这与1990年代相比，堪称重大突破。
Yet even as the diplomatic backdrop has improved, public opinion among both Israelis and Palestinians has become more cynical and hostile towards any peace process. Thirty years on from Oslo, and after October 7th, most Israeli Jews see the Palestinian territories as a failed quasi-state with a record of incubating endless terrorism and hatred of Jews. In 2012 61% of Israelis supported two states. Now perhaps a quarter do and there is a chilling indifference to the loss of Palestinian life. Palestinians see Israel as a rogue state committed to occupying ever more of their land and unleashing routine and high-tech violence on civilians. A staggering proportion are radicalised: polled in May, 50% supported the October 7th attacks, 87% denied Hamas committed atrocities and 41% supported armed resistance.
然而，尽管外交氛围有所缓和，以色列与巴勒斯坦的民意却对任何和平进程都愈发显得怀疑与敌对。《奥斯陆协议》签署三十年后的今天，历经10月7日袭击事件，大多数以色列犹太人将巴勒斯坦领土视为一个失败的政治实体，认为它滋生了无休止的恐怖主义和反犹主义。2012年，尚有61%的以色列人支持两国方案；如今支持者可能仅剩四分之一，而对巴勒斯坦人丧生的冷漠态度更令人心寒。巴勒斯坦人则视以色列为流氓国家，指责其不断侵占土地，并对平民实施常态化、高科技的暴力。激进化比例触目惊心：5月民调显示，50%的巴勒斯坦人支持10月7日袭击，87%否认哈马斯犯下暴行，41%支持武装抵抗。
Mr Trump has said he may travel to the Middle East to mark the first phase of the peace deal. Assuming the hostage release and ceasefire take place, attention will turn to the next phase of any talks: the creation of a new system of governance for Gaza. The end of the war could also trigger a change of leadership on both sides, with Hamas being persuaded or forced to relinquish any formal role in Gaza’s government. Israel must hold an election within 12 months which polls suggest could result in the prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, leaving office.
特朗普称或将亲赴中东，见证和平协议第一阶段的落实。若人质获释与停火得以实现，各方关注点将转向下一阶段谈判：为加沙建立新的治理体系。战争结束也可能引发双方领导层更替：哈马斯或被劝服、或被强制放弃在加沙政府中的一切正式角色。以色列须在12个月内举行大选，民调显示，本雅明·内塔尼亚胡（Binyamin Netanyahu）总理可能因此下台。
These changes at the top are necessary but not sufficient. It is rash to imagine that a deeper peace process can take place without a shift in public opinion on both sides. That is what would make peace possible, not handshakes in the Oval Office or Nobel prizes. Fortunately, the changed backdrop helps. Having pressed Israel to end its air campaign against Iran and strike a hostage deal, Mr Trump must redouble efforts to force Mr Netanyahu or his successor to curb the expansion of Jewish settlements. He must also bolster Palestinian governance by stopping Israel from depriving the Palestinians of customs revenue and facilitating vigilante violence by settlers and soldiers.
领导层的这些变动虽有必要，却仍不足够。若认为双方民意毫无转变就能实现更深层的和平进程，这种想法未免草率。真正促成和平的应是民意的转变，而非在白宫椭圆办公室里的握手，也不是诺贝尔奖章。值得庆幸的是，外交局面的转变带来了转机。在施压以色列停止对伊朗空袭并达成人质协议后，特朗普必须加大力度，迫使内塔尼亚胡或其继任者遏制犹太人定居点的扩张。同时，需通过阻止以色列截留巴勒斯坦关税收入、遏制以色列定居者和士兵实施暴力行为，以加强巴勒斯坦的治理能力。
The Arab states, meanwhile, must get real about forcing the Palestinian Authority to deliver accountable governance and Palestinian political parties to find new leaders and eschew violence. As well as pressure on both sides, there is a positive vision to sell. For Israelis this is the prospect of a regional security order that makes Israel safer by deepening co-operation with Arab states and forging new links with Syria, and perhaps Lebanon, both of which have escaped Iran’s grip. For Palestinians it is the prospect of economic links with the Gulf creating a new pathway to trade and prosperity.
与此同时，阿拉伯国家必须采取切实行动，迫使巴勒斯坦权力机构建立起负责任的治理机制，并推动巴勒斯坦各主要政治派别更新领导层，避免使用暴力手段。除了对冲突双方施压之外，还需要为未来描绘一个积极的愿景。对于以色列来说，这个愿景意味着构建一种新的区域安全秩序，通过与阿拉伯国家的更深层合作，以及与已经摆脱伊朗控制的叙利亚甚至黎巴嫩建立新的关系，从而提升以色列的自身安全。对于巴勒斯坦来说，这个愿景则在于通过与海湾国家建立经济往来，为贸易与经济繁荣开辟新的通道。
If the hostages are released, Palestinians everywhere will watch to see if Israel can sincerely commit itself to allowing a technocratic government in the strip to emerge with international backing. For their part, Israelis will be watching to see if the Palestinians in Gaza can govern themselves better, dismantling terrorist infrastructure and reforming the institutions Hamas captured. The public on both sides will be eyeing how committed Mr Trump really is. In the Oslo talks Gaza was of secondary importance. After a horrific and intractable conflict, what happens next in Gaza will be the acid test.
如果人质最终获释，全球各地的巴勒斯坦人都会密切关注以色列是否真心实意地支持一个获国际背书的以专业技术官僚为主的新政府在加沙成立。与此同时，以色列民众也会关注，加沙的巴勒斯坦人是否能更好地自治，拆除恐怖组织的基础设施，并改革那些被哈马斯控制的机构。双方民众还将密切关注特朗普的承诺究竟有多坚定。在当年的奥斯陆和谈中，加沙问题尚属次要；但经历了这场惨烈而棘手的冲突之后，加沙的未来局势将是检验和平进程的最终试金石。
翻译组：
YY，网球爱好者/外语学习者
Cassie，用爱发电的咻咻教书匠
Yo，女, 种下过流星, 立志不做大鸵鸟
审校组：
Hannah，做一个有用的人
George, 仗剑天涯 顶峰相见
Collarsh, 崇拜科比的一枚小翻译
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