九興控股：擴充海外基地優化客戶組合

公司發佈半年報

25H1公司收入增長0.7%至7.75億美元（24H1：7.7億美元）;出貨量增長3.8%至2750萬雙（24H1：2650萬雙），主要是由運動類別推動，儘管24H1出貨量較高。

公司鞋履平均售價減少3.2%至每雙27.4美元（24H1：每雙28.3美元），由於平均售價較低的運動產品訂單佔比較高所致。

在產品類別方面，公司運動類銷售額增長8.2%，佔製造總收入48.5%（24H1：45.1%），受益於公司向最大運動客戶及其他現有運動客戶出貨量增長，以及與一家新運動客戶成功合作為其推出全新系列及款式。

公司平均售價水準相近的時尚及奢華類別的收入合共減少3.5%（分別減少2.6%及6.2%），分別佔製造總收入25.4%及7.8%（24H1：26.2%及8.4%），乃由於基數較高，以及公司產能分配上作出優化。

為配合三年規劃的策略，公司繼續將產能調配至發展其他產品類別，因此休閒類別的收入減少9.2%，並佔製造總收入18.3%（24H1：20.3%）。

地域方面，北美及歐洲為公司兩個最大市場，分別占收入48.7%及23.4%，其次為中國（包括香港）、亞洲（中國除外）及其他地區，分別占收入15.5%、9.0%及3.4%。

25H1由於公司的運動及高端時尚類別新客戶繼續拓展，並根據公司的三年規劃進一步擴展及多元化客戶組合，公司非客戶專屬製造設施以接近飽和的狀態運營。 儘管去年同期向若干客戶提前出貨約1,000,000雙，產生了較高基數，公司的收入及出貨量仍錄得同比增長。 然而，25H1公司面臨一些暫時性毛利率壓力，主要由於印尼及菲律賓擴充產能過程中出現短期效率問題。

25H1毛利減少11.9%至1.75億美元，而去年同期為1.99億美元。 公司25H1毛利率22.6%（24H1：25.8%）。

25H1公司OP經營利潤減少14.5%至84,700,000美元，去年同期99,100,000美元，由於毛利率減少所致。

25H1經營利潤率（扣除金融工具之公平值變動前）10.9%（24H1：12.9%）。

基於上述因素，公司25H1純利7810萬美元，而去年同期為9150萬美元，其中已包括與在紐約證券交易所上市的Lanvin Group Holdings Limited投資有關的金融工具按市值計價的公平值收益凈額200,000美元（24H1：按市值計價的公平值虧損凈額1,400,000美元）。 除去公司於Lanvin Group投資的公平值凈額變動，公司經調整純利7790萬美元（24H1：9290萬美元）; 公司經調整純利率10.1%，去年同期12.1%。

公司目前所處穩健地位，正是三年規劃（2023-2025）直接成果

在此規劃下，公司改善產品類別組合，多元化及擴大客戶基礎，並優化製造基地佈局。 根據此規劃，公司設定兩大盈利目標：於整個三年期間實現10%的經營利潤率及除稅後利潤年增長率達低雙位數。

鑒於公司已於2023年及2024年超額完成該等指標，公司有信心將於2025年年底實現該等目標。 儘管如此，公司於上半年在盈利方面仍面臨短期的挑戰，主要歸因於兩個因素。 首先，由於客戶為了趕在巴黎奧運會前把握去年歐洲夏季旅遊旺季的激增需求，在24H1提前出貨約一百萬雙訂單，產生了高基數效應。

其次，是與提升印尼及菲律賓產能相關的短期運營效率問題，當地的勞動生產率尚未達到最佳水準。

為了滿足需求並確保達成客戶的重要目標，公司將部分生產轉移至越南的鞋廠，導致成本上升，包括加班費用。 儘管當前遇到的初期情況並不理想，但公司的預期下半年情況將逐步改善。

重要的是，在公司即將敲定下一個三年規劃（2026-2028）之際，公司仍在持續增長的軌道上。 此規劃的一部分包括公司計劃從今年開始，將總產能再擴充20,000,000雙。

這將通過進一步提升公司在印尼梭羅市新工廠的產能、啟動運營孟加拉第二間工廠及加速在印尼為公司最大運動客戶建設專用工廠來實現。 公司下一個三年規劃的另一個重點是發展手袋及配飾製造業務，公司計劃將其打造成為重要的長期增長動力。

公司近期已完成收購越南一家小型但經驗豐富的手袋工廠。 公司將運用其專長，提升公司整體手袋業務的產品品質及生產效益。 一旦敲定，公司的下一個三年規劃將使公司能夠把握品牌顧客跨產品類別的需求。 隨著更多公司重新評估其供應鏈並整合供應商，公司的目標是成為滿足其需求的理想合作夥伴-結合高品質標準與附加價值。

Under the current 3-year plan, Stella exceeded 2023 and 2024 performance targets and is confident it will do the same for 2025E, expecting H1 production issues would have improved in H2E. The draft of its upcoming 2026–28 strategic plan details 20m additional footwear capacity and a foray into handbags, a potential new driver. We maintain our ACCUMULATE call.

The gist: ACCUMULATE

• H1E revenue ticked up despite high base; profit softened on ramp-up issues

• Operations: sportswear sales grew 8% yoy; total customer base expanded

• 3-year strategy: 2023–25 plan driving robust growth; next plan adds 20m pairs

25H1E revenue ticked up despite high yoy base; profit softened on ramp-up issues

Key metrics: Stella International Holdings’ unaudited 25H1E results show a shift toward the sportswear category, while it has been expanding and diversifying its customer base:

• Financials: 25H1E revenue rose 0.7% yoy to USD775m (vs USD770m in 24H1). Footwear shipments increased 3.8% to 27.5m pairs (26.5m in 24H1), mostly sportswear, although sportswear shipments had tracked even higher in 24H1.

• ASP: Footwear average selling price (ASP) dropped 3.2% yoy to USD27.4 per pair (USD28.3 in 24H1), due to a bigger proportion of sportswear orders with lower ASPs.

Profitability:

• Gross profit fell 11.9% to USD175m in 25H1E (USD199m in 24H1), while gross margin was 22.6% (25.8% in 24H1).

• Operating profit dropped 14.5% to USD84.7m in 25H1E (USD99.1m in 24H1), in view of a lower gross margin. And operating profit margin (before deduction of fair value changes in financial instruments) was 10.9% in 25H1 (12.9% in 24H1).

• Net profit: Based on the above factors, Stella posted net profit of USD78.1m in 25H1E (USD91.5m in 24H1), including a net fair value loss of USD200,000 on financial instruments related to its investment in Lanvin Group Holdings (listed on the New York Stock Exchange: a net fair value loss of USD1.4m on financial instruments marked to market in 24H1). Excluding the net change in fair value of the Lanvin investment, Stella’s adjusted net profit would have been USD77.9m in 25H1E (USD92.9m in 24H1); with adjusted net margin at 10.1% (12.1% in 24H1).

Operations: sportswear sales grew 8% yoy; total customer base expanded

Product categories:

• Sportswear: Sales in this segment grew 8.2% yoy to account for 48.5% of manufacturing revenue (24H1: 45.1%), with higher shipments to Stella’s largest sportswear customer and other customers. In addition, the company clinched a deal with a new customer to launch a new sportswear collection with new styles.

• Fashion and luxury: Revenues from these two categories, which had relatively flat ASPs, fell 3.5% yoy collectively (declining 2.6% and 6.2% respectively). Fashion accounted for 25.4% (26.2% in 24H1) of manufacturing revenue, while luxury accounted for 7.8% (8.4% in 24H1). The trend decline was due to the high base, as well as shifts in production allocations as the company optimized capacities.

• Leisure: In line with Stella’s three-year strategic plan, production capacities shifted toward product categories it is building up. Hence, leisure product revenue fell 9.2% yoy in 25H1, and comprised 18.3% (20.3% in 24H1) of manufacturing revenue.

Market regions:

• Key geographies: North America and Europe are Stella’s two largest markets at 48.7% and 23.4% of total revenue respectively, followed by China including Hong Kong at 15.5%, Asia ex-China at 9.0%, and other regions at 3.4%.

• Customer expansion: The company expanded its customer base for the sportswear and premium fashion categories in 25H1, as well as overall. While diversifying its customer portfolio under its three-year strategic plan, Stella’s non-customer-specific manufacturing facilities ran at almost full capacity. Thus, even with the higher 24H1 base (when it shipped 1m pairs of footwear in advance to certain customers), Stella still achieved yoy growth in both revenue and shipments. However, short-term efficiency issues due to ramping up capacities in Indonesia and the Philippines exerted some temporary gross margin pressure in 25H1.

3-year strategy: 2023–25 plan driving robust growth; next plan adds 20m pairs

2023–25 plan final stretch: Under its current 3-year plan, which runs to the end of this year, Stella has improved the product mix, diversified and expanded its customer base, and optimized its manufacturing network. The two major profit targets, which apply over the entire 3-year period, are as follows:

• 10% operating profit margin; and

• Low-double-digit after-tax profit growth rate p.a.

Performance vs goals: Stella exceeded its targets for 2023 and 2024, and the company is confident of achieving the goals for 2025 by the year end, despite dealing with two major short-term profitability challenges in H1:

• High base: The company shipped about 1m pairs of footwear in 24H1 in advance for customers wanting to capitalize on the anticipated demand surge for the European summer travel season before the Paris Olympics, which led to a high base effect for 25H1 results.

• Production ramp-up issues: It dealt with short-term operational efficiency issues as it increased production capacities in Indonesia and the Philippines, where labor had yet to reach optimal levels of productivity. To fulfill demand and achieve its key customer targets, the company relocated some production to shoe factories in Vietnam, which resulted in higher costs, including for overtime work. The conditions were challenging initially, but the company expects the situation will improve in H2E.

2026–28 next plan: Stella continues to track a growth trajectory, as it nears finalization of its next 3-year plan covering 2026–28:

• Adding 20m pairs capacity: The company plans to increase total footwear production capacity by 20m pairs starting this year. Hence, it would:

  - Increase production capacity at its new factory in Surakarta, Indonesia;

  - Commence operations at its second factory in Bangladesh; and

  -  Accelerate the construction of a dedicated factory in Indonesia for its largest sportswear customer.

• Handbags and accessories: Another major project is developing a handbag and accessories manufacturing business, which Stella sees as a substantial long-term growth driver. The company has acquired a small but experienced handbag factory in Vietnam, where its expertise in raising product quality and production efficiency would come into play for the entire handbag business.

• Projected outcome: The 2026–28 strategic plan would position the company to better capture demand from brand customers across the different product categories. As more companies reassess their supply chains and consolidate their suppliers, Stella aims to present itself as the preferred partner to meet their needs, which combines premium standards with value-added offerings.

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