李寧
Li Ning
(2331 HK)
強化穩健持續運營
25H1E financials: revenue ticked up but net profit shrank; running and cross-training retail sales grew 15% yoy
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買入（維持評級） BUY (maintain) 
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投資要點/Investment Thesis
投資要點/Investment Thesis
公司發佈2025中報
25H1：營收148億同增3.3%，歸母凈利17億同減11%; 毛利率50%同比略減，凈利率11.7%，同比下降1.9pct;經營現金凈流入24億，同減11.7%。 中期派息33.6分/股，派息率50%。
公司於2025年成功簽約成為2025-2028年中國奧會及中國體育代表團官方體育服裝合作夥伴。 公司以全新奧運身份行銷主題「中國榮耀，李寧同行」為核心支點，強化品牌作為中國體育堅定支持者的專業形象，持續鞏固專業運動品牌的核心定位。
分品類：
（1）跑步品類：零售流水同增15%，佔總零售流水34%。 李寧專業跑鞋銷售超過1400萬雙，超輕、赤兔、飛電三大核心系列突破526萬雙，助力簽約運動員取得44個國際、國內賽事冠軍，為5.5萬參賽選手提供李寧式賽事體驗。
（2）籃球品類：零售流水同減20%，佔總零售流水17%。 籃球品類疲軟，但公司仍給予很大投入，簽約中國新秀楊瀚森推出首秀籃球鞋馭帥Ultra Low，簽約CBA外援洛夫頓，正式發佈全新一代韋德808 ULTRA。
（3）綜訓品類：零售流水同增15%，佔總零售流水16%。
（4）運動休閒品類：零售流水同減7%，佔總零售流水29%。
（5）其他（包含戶外）：佔總零售流水4%。
分渠道：
（1）線下：零售特許經銷商營收佔比46.5%，同比增加0.5pct; 直接經營銷售營收佔比22.8%，同比減少1.6pct。
（2）線下：電子商務營收佔比29%，同比增加1.1pct。
Running wear retail sales rose 15% yoy in H1, including 14m pairs of pro shoes, a nod to Li Ning’s new role as Olympic sportswear partner to Team China 2025–28. Cross-training gear also did well, while franchised retail and ecommerce channels posted flattish growth. We maintain our BUY call.
The gist: BUY
25H1E financials: revenue ticked up, net profit declined; DPS set at 33.6 fen
Products: running and cross-training up 15% yoy; basketball down 20%
Channels: physical market and ecommerce both had roughly flat growth
25H1E financials: revenue ticked up, net profit declined; DPS set at 33.6 fen
Key metrics: Li Ning’s unaudited results show that it generated RMB14.8bn revenue in 25H1E, up 3.3% yoy; with net profit at RMB1.7bn, down 11% yoy. Gross margin was 50%, down slightly yoy; while net margin dipped 1.9% yoy to 11.7%.
Cash: Net operating cash flow was RMB2.4bn in H1, 11.7% lower yoy.
DPS: The company set an interim dividend of 33.6 fen per share, a dividend yield of 50%.
Olympics: Having inked a deal in 2025, Li Ning once again takes up the Olympic baton as official sportswear partner to Team China and the Chinese Olympic Committee over 2025–28. Its new Olympic marketing slogan, China’s Glory, Li Ning Alongside, raises Li Ning’s profile as a steadfast supporter of Chinese sports as the brand invigorates its professional sports positioning.
Product categories: running and cross-training up 15% yoy; basketball down 20%
Running product retail sales grew 15% yoy in H1, accounting for 34% of total retail sales. Li-Ning sold over 14m pairs of professional running shoes, with its three major collections—Super Light, Rouge Rabbit, and Feidian—selling more than 5.26m pairs. Contracted athletes in Li Ning gear have won 44 international and Chinese championships, while 55,000 competitors have participated in Li Ning-themed races.
Basketball retail sales fell 20% yoy in H1, accounting for 17% of total retail sales. Despite the weak showing, Li Ning maintained substantial investments into the sport:
It signed NBA rookie, China’s Yang Hansen, to debut his basketball shoe, Yushuai Ultra Low.
It also signed American Kenneth Lofton Jr, a Chinese Basketball Association player, to launch his new-generation shoe, Wade 808 Ultra.
Cross-training: Retail sales increased 15% yoy, accounting for 16% of total turnover.
Sports and leisure: Retail sales fell 7% yoy, accounting for 29% of total retail sales.
Outdoor wear and others: This category made up 4% of total retail sales.
Channels: physical sales and ecommerce both post roughly flat growth in H1E
Physical market sales: Franchise retailers generated 46.5% of revenue in H1, up 0.5ppt yoy; while direct sales accounted for 22.8% of revenue, down 1.6ppt yoy.
Offline sales: Ecommerce generated 29% of total revenue, up 1.1ppt yoy
投資建議/Investment Ideas
調整盈利預測，維持買入評級
基於上半年表現達成情況，我們調整25-27年盈利預測，預計營收為291億人民幣、300億人民幣、311億人民幣（原值為289億人民幣、296億人民幣、307億人民幣）; 歸母凈利分別為25億人民幣、27億人民幣、29億人民幣（原值為24億人民幣、26億人民幣、27億人民幣）; EPS分別為0.98元人民幣、1.06元人民幣、1.14元人民幣（原值為0.93元人民幣、0.99元人民幣、1.06元人民幣）。
Forecast and risks
Factoring in 25H1E results, we nudge up our forecast to RMB29.1bn/30.0bn/31.1bn for 2025/26/27E (previously RMB28.9bn/29.6bn/30.7bn), with net profit at RMB2.5bn/ 2.7bn/2.9bn (previously RMB2.4bn/2.6bn/2.7bn); this implies RMB0.98/1.06/1.14 EPS (previously RMB0.93/0.99/1.06). We maintain our BUY rating.
風險提示：消費持續低迷，新品表現不及預期，營銷費用大幅增加等。
Risks include: sluggish consumption market; new products performing below expectations; and much heavier marketing expenses than expected.
Email: research@tfisec.com
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