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一个美股的低风险套利机会,最高能赚800刀!

一个美股的低风险套利机会,最高能赚800刀! 跨境Emily
2025-10-24
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导读:一个美股的低风险套利机会,最高能赚800刀!
这个机会就是odd lot tender。中文也叫要约收购,在A股里也有,但是不同的是,美股里虽然同样也是按比例收购(如果申报要约的数量大于要收走的数量),但对于小散户,如果申报不超过99股,则默认全收,而这就是散户(个体)的机会。
具体内容如下:
Odd Lot Arbitrage
Read on blog or Reader

LENNAR CORPORATION (LEN)

By Admin on October 24, 2025

  • Filing date: 10 Oct 2025
  • Price at time of publishing: $127.35
  • Indicative exchange value (based on current price): $135.48
  • Indicative maximum profit (based on current price): $804.68
  • Expiration date: 07 Nov 2025
  • Filing: Link


Unusual offer structure. Holders of Lennar (LEN) shares will be able to exchange their holdings for Millrose (MRP) shares at a 6% discount to equivalent value, resulting in an approximately 6.4% return on the exchange. If oversubscribed participants will be pro rated, but there is an odd lot provision so holders of 99 shares or fewer of Lennar will not be pro rated. Indicative figures above are results if offer were to close with the current closing price of Lennar, actual results will vary depending on prices at offer expiry.

A couple of risks to flag:

  • Exchange ratio of LEN to MRP shares will be based on the average prices of the shares in the three trading days preceding offer expiry. The earlier shares of LEN are bought before then the larger the risk that prices move against the position before expiry, potentially resulting in a lower value of MRP shares being received than the amount paid for the LEN shares at purchase date. Note shares of LEN will have to be purchased in time to settle the share purchase and meet brokers' participation deadlines to participate in the offer.
  • The exchange ratio is capped at 4.1367 shares of Millrose for each share of Lennar tendered, meaning if Lennar is trading at more than 4.1367x the price of Millrose at the expiry date the return on the offer will fall, possibly significantly enough for participation to be loss making. Ratio of current closing prices is 3.88. We will post an update closer to expiry on our X.

不知道怎么参与? 让我们借助GPT的力量:

🧮 四、对冲比例举例(基于当前价)

假设:

  • LEN = $127.35

  • MRP = $32.80(举例)

  • 当前比率 = 127.35 / 32.8 ≈ 3.88

若你买99股LEN:

  • 理论上换得 ≈ 99 × 3.88 = 384股 MRP(若不触及上限)

  • 则可卖空 384股 MRP 对冲价格风险

👉 但注意:最终兑换比率取决于 最后3个交易日平均价,建议卖空稍低一点(例如卖370股),保留一点浮动空间。



大家有兴趣的可以试一下,注意相应的券商要能够提供“公司行动”选项,需要做申报(盈透是可以的),如果第一次可以试验10股感受一下流程。
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