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Economy & Trade
US-Australia Critical Minerals Deal Finalized: $8.5 Billion Joint Bid to Break China's Dominance
US President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a critical minerals agreement on Monday, aimed at countering China’s dominance. Albanese described it as an $8.5 billion initiative that “we are ready for.” During the meeting, Trump also made sharp remarks about Australia’s ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, over past criticisms, saying, “I don’t like you either.” Trump also expressed support for strategic nuclear-powered submarine cooperation with Australia to enhance Indo-Pacific security.
US Trade Representative Greer stated that Washington will “respond appropriately to China’s efforts to dominate key industrial sectors.”
155% Tariff “Ultimatum”
On October 20, 2025, US President Donald Trump, during a White House meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, issued a series of statements on US-China trade. These included tariff threats, trade agreements, plans to visit China, rare earth supply chains, and aircraft exports.
Trump emphasized that if a trade deal is not reached by November 1, an additional 100% tariff will be imposed on Chinese imports, on top of the existing 55%, totaling 155%. However, he quickly shifted to a more optimistic tone, expressing confidence that a “wonderful” and “fair” agreement would be reached with China, benefiting both countries and the world.
At the same time, Trump confirmed he would meet with China at the APEC summit in South Korea later this month. He specifically mentioned hopes that China would increase purchases of US agricultural products, such as soybeans, to restore trade in that sector.
Trump also stated plans to visit China in early 2026 to further bilateral dialogue. “I’ve received an invitation to visit China, and I may go early next year. It’s basically confirmed,” he said.
International Shipping
Port Fee Retaliation Escalates, Global Shipping Routes Shift
China’s Ministry of Transport officially implemented new port fee rules on October 18: US-flagged or US-majority-owned (≥25%) vessels will be subject to a “retaliatory surcharge” of $10 per gross ton when docking at Chinese ports. Washington responded immediately, maintaining its existing “USTR port fee” on Chinese vessels.
Intermodal warned in a weekly report that spot freight rates on the Far East–US West Coast route jumped 9% in a single day, with shipowners urgently reallocating capacity to Middle East and South American routes. The “fragmentation era” has officially begun: China continues to deepen trade ties through the Belt and Road Initiative, expanding engagement with South America, the Middle East, and Canada, while also focusing on building domestic self-sufficiency. Similarly, the US is shifting exports of energy and commodities to India, Southeast Asia, and Europe. These developments indicate that trade flows are being restructured, and new trade corridors are forming, effectively drawing a global trade map that excludes the other.
Simandou “First Shipment” Countdown: Global Iron Ore Shipping Map to Be Redrawn
According to foreign media reports, mining giant Rio Tinto is set to ship the first batch of iron ore from its Simandou project, with the milestone shipment expected in mid-November. This marks the historic debut of the world’s largest untapped iron ore reserve, as it enters the export phase.
Reuters cited three sources saying Rio Tinto has already stockpiled around 2 million tons of high-grade iron ore at the site, with the first shipment expected to head to China. This event is seen as a potential game-changer for global iron ore supply and pricing.
Rio Tinto stated that the first exports from the SimFer mine will be facilitated through infrastructure built by the Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), which is responsible for constructing a 600-kilometer railway and deep-water port connecting to the Atlantic Ocean. The port construction is nearly complete.
Insiders also revealed that WCS began stockpiling iron ore for export as early as September, and has consistently been ahead of Rio Tinto in progress. According to a July update, WCS’s first-year shipment volume is expected to reach 1.5 to 2 million tons. The Guinean government has announced that WCS’s inaugural shipment ceremony will be held on November 25, 2025, at the Morebaya Port.
With both Rio Tinto and WCS advancing in parallel, the Simandou project is poised to transform Guinea into a major iron ore exporter and introduce a new “African variable” into the global iron ore trade, signaling the start of a new resource competition.
Commodities Market Brief
Grain
According to data from consulting firm AgRural, as of October 16, Brazil’s soybean planting progress for the 2025/26 season reached 24%, up from 14% the previous week and 18% during the same period last year, but still below the 30% recorded two years ago. AgRural forecasts that Brazil’s soybean acreage will reach 48.6 million hectares in 2025/26, with output hitting a record 176.7 million tons.
Iron Ore
According to satellite data from Mysteel, during the week of October 13–19, 2025, total iron ore inventories at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil stood at 11.73 million tons, a decrease of 1.167 million tons from the previous week. This marks an accelerating destocking trend, with inventory levels hitting a new low for the second half of the year.
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