Oct 15, 2025 10月 15， 2025
The yellow metal’s surge defies typical market dynamics. Here’s what could be driving its rise.
黄金的飙升违背了典型的市场动态。以下是可能推动其崛起的原因。
Key Takeaways 关键要点
Gold and stocks have been moving together, defying their traditional diversifying relationship, with gold up 2.5 times since October 2022.
黄金和股票一直在共同波动，违背了它们传统的多元化关系，自 2022 年 10 月以来，黄金上涨了 2.5 倍。
The metal’s unexpected surge has been linked to investor concerns of an AI bubble, inflation hedging and U.S. dollar debasement.
该金属的意外飙升与投资者对人工智能泡沫、通胀对冲和美元贬值的担忧有关。
However, with market-fear gauges low, growth solid and inflation expectations anchored, these explanations don’t tell the whole story.
然而，由于市场恐惧指标较低、增长稳健且通胀预期稳定，这些解释并不能说明全部情况。
Central banks’ reduced reliance on the dollar and the rise of digital currencies like stablecoin could support gold’s continued bull market.
各国央行对美元的依赖减少以及稳定币等数字货币的崛起可能会支持黄金的持续牛市。
It is usually easy to characterize markets as either “risk-on” – with favorable conditions encouraging investors to take on more risk – or “risk-off,” with uncertainty creating an appetite for investments that have traditionally been more dependable. But the current three-year-old equity bull market is different, as the relationships between certain asset classes have been unusual.
通常很容易将市场描述为“风险偏好”（有利条件鼓励投资者承担更多风险）或“避险”，不确定性会产生对传统上更可靠的投资的兴趣。但当前三年的股票牛市有所不同，因为某些资产类别之间的关系不寻常。
Of particular note: Gold, which has historically been considered a “safe haven,” would generally move independently of stocks, which are more risky. Instead, they have been moving in the same direction—mostly up. As equities have surged, gold has risen some 2.5 times since October 2022 and more than 50% for the year to date, with an especially eye-catching rally to record levels in the past 10 weeks.
特别值得注意的是：黄金历来被认为是“避险”，其走势通常独立于风险更大的股票。相反，他们一直在朝着同一个方向前进——大部分是向上的。随着股市的飙升，黄金自 2022 年 10 月以来上涨了约 2.5 倍，今年迄今上涨了 50% 以上，其中过去 10 周的反弹尤其引人注目，创下历史新高。
This has many investors scratching their heads. So, what’s going on?
这让很多投资者摸不着头脑。那么，这究竟是怎么回事呢？
The Narrative Doesn’t Fully Explain the Rally
市场普遍说法难以解释本轮涨势
Investors have floated a number of plausible theories for gold’s recent performance – but none fully explain it on their own.
投资者对黄金最近的表现提出了许多合理的理论，但没有一个能完全解释这一点。
What’s going on with gold? The usual “hedging” hypotheses fall short of explaining gold’s extraordinary rise—and its positive correlation with stocks.
黄金是怎么回事？通常的“对冲”假设无法解释黄金的非凡上涨及其与股票的正相关性。
Lisa Shalett Chief Investment Officer Head of the Global Investment Office Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Lisa Shalett首席投资官 摩根士丹利财富管理全球投资办公室主管
1.Bubble concerns 泡沫问题
First, it’s possible that investors are buying gold as a hedge against the risk of a speculative AI bubble in stocks. The equity market is expensive and top-heavy, dominated by a handful of mega-cap tech stocks—in some ways, resembling the dot.com bubble in 1999-2000.
首先，投资者可能正在购买黄金以对冲股票投机性人工智能泡沫的风险。股票市场价格昂贵且头重脚轻，由少数大型科技股主导——在某些方面，类似于 1999-2000 年的 dot.com 泡沫。However, investors don’t seem overly concerned about a market pullback. Fear gauges like the CBOE Volatility Index have largely remained low. Corporate fundamentals don’t seem to be wavering. And while GDP growth could slow slightly from the second quarter’s healthy 3.8% pace, it should still come in around a solid 3% or a little higher for the second half of 2025, using the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow as an indicator.
然而，投资者似乎并不过分担心市场回调。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数等恐惧指标基本上保持在低位。企业基本面似乎没有动摇。虽然 GDP 增长可能会比第二季度健康的 3.8% 略有放缓，但以亚特兰大联储的 GDPNow 为指标，2025 年下半年的 GDP 增长率仍应稳定在 3% 左右或略高。
2.Inflation hedging 通胀对冲
Historically, gold has helped investors preserve purchasing power during periods of inflation. So there is a possibility that investors are buying gold as an inflation hedge, especially with the full effects of higher U.S. tariffs still to be seen. But investors’ inflation expectations have actually remained stable, with the one-year U.S. dollar inflation swap—usually the most accurate gauge of short-term inflation expectations—staying flat since early April at about 3.2%.
从历史上看，黄金在通货膨胀时期帮助投资者保持购买力。因此，投资者有可能购买黄金作为通胀对冲工具，尤其是在美国提高关税的全面影响仍有待观察的情况下。但投资者的通胀预期实际上保持稳定，一年期美元通胀掉期——通常是衡量短期通胀预期的最准确指标——自 4 月初以来持平在 3.2% 左右。
3.Dollar debasement 美元贬值
Another hypothesis is that owning a hard asset like gold may help offset the risk of “debasement,” or devaluing, of the U.S. dollar. This thesis suggests that several factors – mounting fears over deglobalization, high U.S. debt and deficits, and threats to the Fed’s independence – have shaken investors’ confidence in the dollar, leading to a reduction in its use globally, including among central banks, which increased their gold holdings during the first half of this year.
另一种假设是，拥有黄金这样的硬资产可能有助于抵消美元“贬值”或贬值的风险。该论点表明，有几个因素——对去全球化的担忧日益加剧、美国债务和赤字高企以及对美联储独立性的威胁 ——动摇了投资者对美元的信心，导致全球范围内的美元使用减少，包括央行，这些央行在今年上半年增加了黄金持有量。
While this thesis is compelling, it does not fully explain gold’s recent rise, as global central banks have been diversifying their reserves away from the dollar for nearly a decade. Also, demand for dollar-denominated assets like Treasuries has remained strong, including from foreign buyers.
虽然这一论点令人信服，但它并不能完全解释黄金近期的上涨，因为近十年来，全球央行一直在将其储备多元化，远离美元。此外，对美国国债等美元计价资产的需求仍然强劲，包括来自外国买家的需求。
Another Factor to Consider 另一个需要考虑的因素
If none of these theories completely explains gold’s rise, what else could be driving the yellow metal?
如果这些理论都不能完全解释黄金的上涨，那么还有什么推动了黄金的上涨呢？
Increasingly, the Global Investment Committee believes gold’s rally may be linked to a global financial shift, as central banks reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar and anticipate changes in currency markets driven by stablecoins and other digital assets. These digital currencies have the potential to disrupt traditional fiat-currency markets. By using gold to back fiat currencies or cryptocurrencies, various entities, including governments, could challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global transactions. This trend could support the continuation of gold’s bull market.
全球投资委员会越来越多地认为，随着各国央行减少对美元的依赖，并预测稳定币和其他数字资产推动的货币市场变化，黄金的上涨可能与全球金融转变有关。这些数字货币有可能颠覆传统的法定货币市场。通过使用黄金支持法定货币或加密货币，包括政府在内的各种实体可能会挑战美元在全球交易中的主导地位。这一趋势可能支持黄金牛市的延续。
Investing Moves to Consider 需要考虑的投资举措
As the adage goes, bull markets are meant to be ridden, not timed. Our foundational advice is to be fully invested according to your strategic allocations.
俗话说，牛市是用来骑的，而不是用来把握时机的。我们的基本建议是根据您的战略配置进行充分投资。
However, diversification and security selection are important. Real assets, municipal bonds, intermediate U.S. Treasuries, real estate and select private infrastructure present opportunities.
然而，多元化和安全选择很重要。实物资产、市政债券、中级美国国债、房地产和精选的私人基础设施提供了机会。
Also consider equity sectors that may benefit from of generative-AI-enhanced productivity, like financials, healthcare and energy.
还要考虑可能受益于生成式人工智能提高生产力的股票行业，例如金融、医疗保健和能源。
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免责声明：本文仅为投资知识分享，不构成任何投资建议。文中提及个股仅为举例说明，并非推荐。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。