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Economy & Trade
U.S. to Slash India Tariff from 50 % to 15 %–16 %; Deal May Be Signed This Month
New Delhi/Washington, 22 Oct 2025 — Negotiators close to the talks say India and the United States have “in principle” closed a three-year-old bilateral trade dossier: Washington will cut its combined tariff on Indian goods from the current 50 % (25 % “reciprocal duty” plus 25 % “Russia-oil penalty”) to 15 %–16 %. If the legal scrubbing finishes on time, President Trump and Prime Minister Modi are expected to sign the pact on 31 October on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit.
Commenting, Indian Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal said Delhi is ready to “scale up U.S. crude and LNG purchases tomorrow if prices are competitive.” The U.S. side repeated its red line: India must first stop importing Russian oil. Officials estimate bilateral trade could jump past USD 200 bn in the first full year of the deal, giving both manufacturing and energy sectors a double-shot of adrenaline.
Zero New Soy Sales to China; U.S. Farmers “Near Financial Cliff”
Washington, 22 Oct 2025 — The American Soybean Association (ASA) and the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) issued a joint alert: not a single new soybean contract has been booked with China this marketing year, and no cargoes are scheduled for the next four weeks. “Without a turnaround before November, growers in the northern Plains will have to sell land to repay spring operating loans,” ASA warned in a letter to the Trade Representative, urging “immediate emergency market assistance.” The White House has not yet decided on extra aid; analysts say a wave of farm bankruptcies could hit before Christmas.
International Shipping
China & Russia Ink “Arctic Route” Mega-Deal
Harbin, 22 Oct 2025 — Alexey Likhachev, CEO of Rosatom, and China’s Transport Minister Liu Wei signed a Commercial Framework for the Northern Sea Route (NSR) last Saturday, upgrading the “Ice Silk Road” to flagship status. Beijing will invest USD 5 bn to build three deep-water ports in northern Siberia and seven LNG-dual-fuel ice-class vessels; Moscow offers 40-year concessions and priority escort by its nuclear ice-breaker fleet.
During the summer ice-free window, Ningbo–Felixstowe can be done in 20 days, 18 days faster than via Suez. Hong-Kong based Sealegend plans a monthly “China–Europe Arctic Express” by 2026. Insurers still quote icy premiums and late-season ice can trap even non-ice-class tankers, but Red Sea disruptions have turned the polar detour “from gimmick to necessity.”
BIMCO Drafts Clause Overnight to Cover China’s New “U.S.-Linked Ship” Surcharge
London, 22 Oct 2025 — China’s Ministry of Transport announced on 14 October that, starting 1 November, all vessels “controlled or owned by U.S. interests” will face a 10 % port surcharge. Within 48 h BIMCO, the de-facto legislator of global shipping, circulated a draft “CHINA PORT SURCHARGE CLAUSE 2025” to its members.
“This March we wrote a clause for U.S. tariffs on Chinese-flag ships; now the roles are reversed,” Secretary-General David Loosley told Lloyd’s List. The new wording lets charterers push the fee up the chain to cargo interests or build it straight into voyage freight. Brokers say 12 % of the world’s container capacity is already re-routing; inquiries about Arctic and West-African hubs have spiked.
Commodities Market Brief
Iron Ore
Friedou, Guinea, 20 Oct 2025 — A long whistle echoed through the hills at dawn as the first heavy-haul train of the Simandou project pulled away, loaded with 3 333 t of iron ore in 50 open wagons.
The 650 km journey along the newly built Trans-Guinean Railway to the Atlantic port of Morebaya marks the moment the nation’s largest mining infrastructure gamble moves from blueprint to reality. The train is operated by Winning Consortium Simandou and its partners, who promise first ore-on-ship before year-end.
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