近日金价一度冲破 4,300美元/盎司，创下历史新高，但从本周开始，就出现了一些回落，这两天大概在 4,100美元/盎司附近波动——虽然短线看起来有点疲软，但整体趋势仍然是稳中向上的。
我自己在看行情的时候，会特别注意背后的情绪。其实这轮金价的快速上涨，不完全是因为基本面改变，更多是受到了市场不确定性、降息预期、以及大家“怕错过（FOMO-Fear Of Missing Out）” 心理的推动。
在这样的氛围里，大家容易被“短期波动”吸引，却忽略了自己的长期方向。
对我而言，黄金只是家庭财富拼图的一小块。
它当然有价值，但更重要的，是你整个家庭的财富结构是否健康：
现金流是否稳？风险保障是否足够？
投资与储蓄是否匹配你家庭的阶段目标？
“财富的核心，不在于抓住每一个机会，而在于让你在不同阶段，都能从容应对生活的不确定。”
市场正热的当下，Jolene 给大家3点建议供参考：
① 理性观察，避免情绪操作
如果你已经持有黄金，恭喜你！今年以来的涨幅确实亮眼，但此刻更适合“观察”，而非“追高”。短期情绪带来的高位波动，往往也是市场的冷静期。
如果你还没有配置黄金，也不必着急。等待价格稳定在合理区间（如 4,000–4,100 美元/盎司）后，分批布局、循序渐进，也是很稳健的方式。
黄金是家庭资产中的防御工具，应与股票、债券、现金、保障等等共同构成稳健组合。比例建议控制在 5%–10%，既保安全垫，也维持流动性。
③ 回归初心，以“安心”为本
财富管理不是追涨杀跌，而是为了让家庭在不同阶段都能稳健生活。从短期流动性到长期传承，关键是——冷静、平衡、安心。
以下内容选自 IG Wealth Management 内部策略简报，并经 Jolene Hung 整合与中文解读，旨在为读者提供教育性参考。
Since Labour Day, the team and I have been out on the road speaking to advisors and clients about the current market environment, economic environment and anything else that seems top of mind. But the conversation invariably always includes gold and the question whether now represents a good time to buy or not.
Why now? Why are we getting this question about gold now after a stellar run of 57% year-to-date (even after today’s pull-back)?
👉 The answer is in the question. Investors are curious about gold now because of the 57% gain and the fear of missing out (FOMO). Yes, FOMO has hit the gold markets — only after the run. Google search trends for the term “gold” have never been more popular than now over the last 20 years.
自劳动节以来，我和团队在全国与顾问和客户交流市场环境、经济形势及他们最关心的话题。而几乎每次对话都会谈到——黄金。问题是：现在到底是不是买入黄金的好时机？
为什么大家在今年金价已经上涨 57% 之后，才开始问这个问题？
答案就在问题本身。投资者之所以关注黄金，是因为它涨得太快、怕错过机会（FOMO）。没错，FOMO情绪已经袭击黄金市场——而且是在上涨之后。
数据显示，过去20年来，Google上关于“gold”的搜索热度从未像现在这么高。
We wrote about gold a year ago in our 2025 Outlook:
“Some might say the gold rally is already stretched, with prices climbing over 60% since the lows of September 2022. Yet, we believe the forces driving this rise may only strengthen.”
Since then, gold has moved from US$2,563 to US$4,128, a gain of 61%.
In April 2025, we reiterated that view and added that silver could be next, given the stretched gold-to-silver ratio.
Back then, silver traded around US$32; it recently touched US$54.
We’ve been consistent in our conviction on this asset class.
That said, with current gold prices, we would caution investors: repeating such extraordinary gains is becoming increasingly unlikely.
我们在 2025年度展望报告 中就提到过黄金：“有人可能认为黄金的涨势已经过度，自2022年9月低点以来价格已上涨超过60%。但我们相信，这一趋势背后的驱动力仍可能继续增强。”
从那时起，金价从 2563美元 涨至如今的 4128美元，上涨幅度约 61%。我们在2025年4月的报告中再次强调了这一观点，并指出白银可能会成为下一个受益者。当时白银约 32美元/盎司，近期已触及 54美元/盎司。这说明我们对这一资产类别的判断一直保持一致。
不过，在当前高位，我们要提醒投资者：再现过去那样的涨幅，越来越不现实。
Investors looking to buy gold today expecting similar gains may be disappointed.
We do believe the price of gold can move higher, but any future gains will likely be smaller and driven more by momentum and speculation than fundamentals — making it a riskier proposition.
若现在买入黄金并期待再现过去一年的暴涨，可能会令人失望。我们认为金价仍有上行空间，但未来上涨幅度将明显减小，而驱动力量更多来自动能与投机，而非基本面支撑——这也意味着风险在上升。
Years ago, I built a valuation model for gold based on its role as a store of wealth — maintaining purchasing power against inflation. To measure purchasing power, I used US M2 money supply, which represents total liquidity in the U.S. economy.
As M2 increases, purchasing power erodes, so gold’s fair value should rise correspondingly. This relationship has held true since the U.S. left the gold standard.
📊 According to this model, gold’s fair value today is around US$3,100/oz.
Yet, the current market price is pushing above the +1 standard deviation of fair value — suggesting overbought conditions.
多年前，我建立了一个黄金估值模型，基于黄金作为财富储存工具、用于对抗通胀的角色。 衡量购买力的指标是美国的 M2货币供应量。
理论上，M2越高，货币购买力越低；为了维持购买力，黄金的公允价值也应随之上升。自美国脱离金本位以来，这种关系一直有效。
📊 按此模型计算，目前黄金的公允价值约为3100美元/盎司。
而市场价格已接近公允价值的 +1标准差区间，显示市场超买迹象。
This isn’t to say gold can’t go higher — it can, especially with sudden retail enthusiasm.
But meaningful gains may now be harder to achieve.
The bottom line:
1️⃣ Don’t jump on the bandwagon without understanding fundamentals.
2️⃣ Always assess both upside and downside risks.
3️⃣ Keep gold positions appropriately sized within your portfolio.
“We still like gold — we just prefer a measured approach.”
这并不意味着黄金不会继续上涨。在散户情绪高涨的情况下，价格仍可能短期冲高。但显著的涨幅将愈发难以获得。
结论如下：
1️⃣ 不要在未理解基本面的情况下盲目跟风；
2️⃣ 投资前必须同时评估上行与下行风险；
3️⃣ 黄金应作为投资组合的一部分，控制在合理比例范围内。
