No Return to Commodity Standard—
Re‑Anchor
Public convertibility is not coming back.
Re‑anchoring will happen via collateral.
Why convertibility won't return
- Credit scale mismatch: money and debt
dwarf any feasible commodity base; a peg
would force a deflationary collapse.
- Policy flexibility: states need LOLR, QE/QT
and fiscal space; hard pegs remove that.
- Coordination failure: a multipolar world
can’t agree on or enforce a single standard.
- Inelastic supply: commodity growth is
~1–2% a year; too rigid for global liquidity.
What re‑anchoring looks like instead
Two‑layer architecture:
- Public layer stays fiat: most transactions
use unbacked currency.
- Settlement layer hardens: reserves and
final settlement shifts to hard collateral.
Practical mechanisms:
- Collateral, not convertibility: hard assets
used as sovereign backstops and collateral
not circulating money.
- Higher reserve share: more 'outside money'
like gold; repatriation and self‑custody rise
- Legal and accounting changes: wider use
of gold as high‑quality collateral; special
protections for official holdings
- Price, not peg: stepwise gold revaluation
to strengthen balance sheets and collateral
capacity, without a declared standard.
Why gold now, and what digital needs
Gold’s current advantages:
- Physical finality: outside all networks;
no counterparty, code, or infra risk
- Legal foundation: recognized by IMF, Basel,
and long‑standing custody norms
- No protocol attack surface: cannot be
forked, 51%‑attacked, or censored
- Track record: five millennia of use
- Lower volatility: ~10–20% vs ~60–80%
for Bitcoin; key for haircuts and reserves
- Liquidity at sovereign scale: deep OTC
markets that can absorb very large flows
- Custody sovereignty: vault control at home
Why Bitcoin cannot substitute for states:
- Volatility and depth unfit for reserves
- Infra dependence and governance risks
- No legal or treaty standing as reserves
- Sovereign‑scale custody is hard to secure
Viable digital alternative: requirements
- Stability like gold; haircuts workable
- True finality; no rollbacks or capture
- Sovereign custody without chokepoints
- Legal and treaty recognition as reserves
- Deep, resilient liquidity at multi‑trillion
scale without disorderly slippage
- Proven resilience to shocks and attacks
- Redundant infrastructure; no single point
of failure
- Operational gains vs gold: fast x‑border
settlement, divisibility, auditable supply
Practical takeaway
- No return to a gold standard
- Expect rising use of hard, neutral reserves
- The shift happens in market plumbing, not
public convertibility.
- Near term: physical gold leads
- Longer term: room for a digital reserve
if it matches gold’s finality, legality,
stability, and neutrality at scale.
No current system meets all criteria.
不回归商品本位——再锚定
公开可兑换不会回归。
再锚定将通过抵押来实现。
为何可兑换不会回归
- 信用规模错配：货币与债务规模
远超任何可行的商品基础；盯住会
导致通缩性崩塌。
- 政策弹性：国家需要最后贷款人
（LOLR）、量化宽松/量化紧缩
（QE/QT）与财政空间；硬性盯住
会剥夺这些工具。
- 协调失败：在多极化世界里，难以
就单一标准达成并执行一致。
- 供给缺乏弹性：商品年增约1–2%，
对全球流动性而言过于僵硬。
再锚定将如何呈现
双层架构：
- 公共层仍为法币：大多数交易使用
未背书的法定货币。
- 结算层趋于硬化：储备与最终清算
更多依赖硬抵押品。
具体机制：
- 抵押而非可兑换：硬资产作为主权
后盾与高质量抵押品，而非流通
货币。
- 提高外部货币占比：更多配置“外部
货币”（如黄金）；回运境内并自我
托管。
- 法律与会计调整：更广泛将黄金作
为高质量抵押；官方持有获得特别
保护。
- 价格而非盯住：通过阶梯式重估金
价以强化资产负债表与抵押能力，
而无需宣布本位制。
为何当下是黄金，以及数字方案需要什么
黄金的当前优势：
- 物理终局性：存在于一切网络之外；
无对手方、代码或基础设施风险。
- 法律基础：获IMF、巴塞尔等以及
长期托管规范的认可。
- 无协议层攻击面：不可被分叉、
51%攻击或网络审查。
- 历史记录：五千年沿用。
- 更低波动：约10–20%，而比特币
约60–80%；对抵押折扣与储备稳定
至关重要。
- 主权级流动性：深厚的场外市场可
吸纳极大规模流量。
- 托管主权：在本土金库自主管控。
为何比特币无法替代国家层面需求：
- 波动与市场深度不适合做储备。
- 依赖基础设施并存在治理风险。
- 缺乏作为储备资产的法律或条约
地位。
- 主权规模的安全托管难以保障。
可行的数字化替代：必要条件
- 稳定性接近黄金；抵押折扣可操作。
- 真正的终局性；无回滚、无治理俘获。
- 可主权托管且无单点瓶颈。
- 获得作为储备的法律与条约承认。
- 在数万亿美元规模具备深厚且有韧
性的流动性，不发生失序滑点。
- 经受冲击与攻击的验证。
- 基础设施冗余；无单点故障。
- 相对黄金的操作优势：更快的跨境
结算、良好的可分割性、可审计的供给。
实用结论
- 不会回归金本位。
- 硬性、中立储备的使用将上升。
- 转变发生在金融底层管道，而非公
众可兑换层。
- 短期：实体黄金领先。
- 长期：若能在规模上匹配黄金的终
局性、法律地位、稳定性与中立性，
数字储备有其空间。
目前没有任何体系满足全部条件。