As stock markets climb with optimistic investments in AI companies, the simultaneous rise in gold prices is catching attention. Gold breached $4,000 per ounce in early October, with some analysts predicting $5,000 next year—nearly double its price since January. This is unusual for optimists, as gold, a safe-haven asset, typically thrives when pessimism and uncertainty prevail.
Several factors drive gold's ascent. Analysts cite growing doubts about the U.S. economy, the dollar's stability amid high federal debt, and geopolitical risks like trade tensions. When uncertainty looms, investors turn to gold as protection against market downturns and inflation, which is beginning to tick up. However, "nobody knows for sure why gold prices are rising," notes Professor Dirk Baur, as data on investor motives is scarce.
While rising gold demand may signal economic concerns, experts caution it is not a reliable recession predictor. Gold's limited supply means small demand shifts can cause significant price swings. Investors often buy it as insurance against asset plunges. Yet, betting on continuous price increases is risky: historically, gold yields low or negative returns in the decade after a major surge.
Long-term trends also play a role. Since the mid-2000s, gold ETFs simplified investing, fueling price hikes. Recent central bank actions—like China boosting gold reserves after Western sanctions on Russia—further drive demand. If institutions like insurers are permitted to hold gold reserves, prices could stabilize at higher levels. Still, experts warn that multiple factors could also push prices down, emphasizing gold's unpredictability.
阅读理解题目:
1. What is the primary reason gold's price surge is considered unusual in the current economic context?
A. Stock markets are declining while gold is rising.
B. Gold typically rises during periods of optimism about AI.
C. Gold, a safe-haven asset, is climbing alongside optimistic stock markets.
D. Analysts accurately predicted gold's rise to $5,000.
2. According to the passage, which of the following is NOT cited as a factor contributing to gold's price increase?
A. Geopolitical risks and trade tensions.
B. Concerns about the U.S. dollar's stability.
C. Increased mining output of gold.
D. Rising inflation and economic uncertainty.
3. What does Professor Campbell Harvey suggest about gold as an investment after a major price surge?
A. It is a safe long-term asset with guaranteed high returns.
B. Historical data show low or negative returns in the following decade.
C. Central bank policies ensure its value remains stable.
D. Gold ETFs make it immune to market fluctuations.
4. How might the role of institutions like insurance companies impact gold prices in the future?
A. Their involvement could stabilize gold prices at current levels.
B. Allowing them to hold gold reserves could significantly increase demand.
C. They are likely to replace central banks as the primary gold buyers.
D. Their actions have no substantial effect on long-term gold trends.
参考答案:
1. C (Gold, a safe-haven asset, is climbing alongside optimistic stock markets.)
2. C (Increased mining output of gold.)
3. B (Historical data show low or negative returns in the following decade.)
4. B (Allowing them to hold gold reserves could significantly increase demand.)
任务型阅读练习：
As stock markets climb with optimistic investments in AI companies, the simultaneous rise in gold prices is catching attention. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, typically thrives when pessimism prevails. 1._______ This unusual phenomenon raises questions about its implications.
Several factors drive gold's ascent. Analysts cite growing doubts about the U.S. economy's resilience and the dollar's stability amid record federal debt. 2._______ When uncertainty looms, investors turn to gold as protection against potential market downturns and rising inflation.
However, "nobody knows for sure why gold prices are rising," notes Professor Dirk Baur, as data on investor motives remains scarce. While rising gold demand may signal economic concerns, experts caution it's not a reliable recession predictor. 3._______
Long-term trends also contribute to gold's strength. Since the mid-2000s, gold ETFs have simplified investing, fueling price hikes. Recent central bank actions—particularly China boosting gold reserves after observing Western sanctions on Russia—further drive demand. 4._______
Looking ahead, if more institutions like insurers are permitted to hold gold reserves, prices could stabilize at higher levels. Still, experts warn that multiple factors could also push prices down. 5._______ This dual possibility highlights gold's inherent unpredictability in global markets.
选项:
A. Geopolitical risks including trade tensions with China add to the uncertainty.
B. Historical data shows gold often yields low returns after major surges.
C. Therefore, its current rise during market optimism seems contradictory.
D. Gold's limited supply means small demand changes can cause big price swings.
E. Some experts believe this trend could create a "new normal" of higher gold prices.
F. This reaction demonstrates how political events can trigger shifts in gold markets.
G. Many investors are now turning to cryptocurrencies as alternative safe assets.
参考答案:
1. C
2. A
3. D
4. F
5. B
解析:
1. 前文提到黄金是避险资产，在悲观时期通常上涨，但当前股市乐观时黄金也在涨，C项的"contradictory"完美承接这个对比。
2. 前文列举了经济担忧因素，A项的地缘政治风险是合理的延伸补充。
3. 前文说黄金不是可靠的衰退预测指标，D项从供应角度解释价格波动原因，形成因果逻辑。
4. 前文提到中国在俄罗斯制裁后增加黄金储备，F项的"political events"与此直接对应。
5. 前文警告价格可能下跌，B项的历史数据为此提供证据支撑，且与结尾的"不可预测性"相呼应。
While stock markets are soaring as optimistic investors pour money into artificial intelligence companies, so is the price of gold.
当股市飞涨，乐观的投资者将资金投入人工智能公司时，黄金价格也同样上涨。
It breached $4,000 an ounce for the first time in early October, and some analysts predict it could hit $5,000 next year, almost double the price since this past January.
黄金价格在 10 月初首次突破每盎司 4000 美元，一些分析师预测明年可能达到 5000 美元，几乎是今年 1 月以来价格的两倍。
That doesn’t seem like a good sign for the optimists. Gold, a safe-haven asset that holds its value, traditionally thrives when pessimism and uncertainty are on the rise. Given a slowing but still-growing economy, gold may be flashing a warning signal.
这对乐观主义者来说并不是一个好兆头。 黄金作为一种价值稳定的避险资产，在悲观和不确定性上升时传统上会繁荣。 在经济持续增长但增速放缓的情况下，黄金可能正在发出警告信号。
What’s behind the recent price surge?
最近价格上涨背后的原因是什么？
Several factors influence gold prices.
几个因素影响黄金价格。
Many analysts point to rising doubts about the resilience of the U.S. economy, the dollar’s value when federal debt and deficits are so high, and the independence of America’s central bank. Add in the threat of rising tariffs, which raise inflation and reduce growth, and the intensifying trade war with China among other geopolitical risks, and the future looks iffy at best. When things look this uncertain, people and organizations tend to buy gold to protect themselves from a fall in financial markets, which hasn’t happened, and inflation, which is starting to tick up.
许多分析师指出，人们对美国经济弹性、在联邦债务和赤字如此之高时美元的价值，以及美国中央银行的独立性越来越怀疑。再加上日益增长的关税威胁，这会推高通胀并减缓增长，以及与中国以及其他地缘政治风险加剧的贸易战，未来看起来最坏的情况。当事情看起来如此不确定时，人们和组织往往会购买黄金来保护自己免受金融市场下跌和通胀的影响，而通胀已经开始上升。
But “nobody knows for sure” why gold prices are rising, Dirk Baur, a finance professor at the University of Western Australia Business School, writes in an email. “There is no data on why investors or central banks buy gold.”
但是，“没有人确切知道”金价为何上涨，澳大利亚西悉尼大学商学院的金融学教授迪克·鲍尔在一封电子邮件中写道。“没有数据表明投资者或中央银行购买黄金的原因。”
Should Americans be worried about the economy?
美国人应该担心经济吗？
Whenever a growing number of investors gets nervous about the economy, take note. But there are better recession predictors than rising gold prices, analysts say. The supply of gold is so limited – and mining adds so little every year – that small changes in demand can translate into big changes in prices, says Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University’s Fuqua business school. Investors wanting some insurance against a potential plunge in stocks or other assets might want to buy gold, he adds.
每当越来越多的投资者对经济感到紧张时，请注意。但分析师表示，比金价上涨更好的经济衰退预测指标还有很多。杜克大学富夸商学院的金融学教授 Campbell Harvey 说，由于黄金供应量非常有限——而且每年开采量增加很少——需求的微小变化可能导致价格发生大幅波动。他还补充说，想要为股票或其他资产可能出现的暴跌购买一些保险的投资者可能会考虑购买黄金。
But stocking up on the yellow metal expecting prices to keep rising is riskier. Historically, in the decade after a big run-up in gold prices, returns on gold have been very low or even negative, Professor Harvey points out in a new paper.
但是，在预期金价持续上涨的情况下囤积黄金风险更高。哈维教授在最新论文中指出，历史上，在金价大幅上涨后的十年里，黄金的回报率非常低，甚至为负。
Could gold prices keep rising in the short term?
短期内金价是否会继续上涨？
Some analysts think so. Several analysts predict gold will rise to $5,000 an ounce by next year.
一些分析师认为如此。几位分析师预测，到明年黄金价格将上涨至每盎司 5,000 美元。
How about the long term?
长期如何？
It’s possible, not so much because investors and central banks love gold, but because they’re increasingly skeptical about the dollar’s role as a stable reserve currency.
这可能，并不是因为投资者和央行喜欢黄金，而是因为他们越来越怀疑美元作为稳定储备货币的作用。
Historically, traders and investors have used gold because it’s durable, easy to turn into coins or jewelry, and accepted by nearly everyone as a form of payment. Because so little gold can be produced each year, this precious metal has held its value over time.
从历史上看，交易者和投资者使用黄金，因为它耐用，容易铸造成硬币或珠宝，并且几乎每个人都接受它作为支付方式。由于每年能生产的黄金非常有限，这种贵金属的价值随着时间的推移而保持。
Since World War II, the U.S. dollar has played much the same role. It has proved a stable currency (at least compared with other currencies) issued by a stable government with an independent Federal Reserve, and it is a highly liquid form of payment, readily acceptable to just about everyone. In crisis times, U.S. government bonds denominated in dollars were the safe haven that worried investors snapped up.
自第二次世界大战以来，美元一直扮演着类似的角色。它证明是一种稳定的货币（至少与其他货币相比），由一个稳定的政府发行，拥有独立的联邦储备系统，并且是一种高度流动的支付方式，几乎被所有人接受。在危机时期，以美元计价的美国政府债券成为了担忧的投资者抢购的避风港。
But structural changes in markets and various crises over the last 20 years have chipped away at the dollar’s credibility.
但过去 20 年来，市场和各种危机的结构性变化已经削弱了美元的信誉。
What changes suggest the price of gold might not go back down?
哪些变化表明金价可能不会回落？
The structural change started in the mid-2000s, when financial firms began introducing gold exchange-traded funds. These ETFs made it as easy for people to buy gold as to buy mutual funds, and investors started to pile in.
结构性行情始于 2000 年代中期，当时金融公司开始推出黄金交易型开放式基金（ETFs）。这些 ETFs 使得人们购买黄金变得和购买共同基金一样容易，投资者开始纷纷涌入。
The growth of those ETFs can explain most of the rise in gold prices from 2005, when the average price was about $445 an ounce, until about 2023, points out Professor Harvey. (Investing in ETFs was so easy that in the run-up to the world financial crisis of 2008-09, gold prices doubled to $1,000 an ounce.) Prices kept rising after the financial crisis, as central banks began to reduce their dollar holdings and buy gold instead, reversing decades of gold-selling.
哈维教授指出，这些 ETFs 的增长可以解释 2005 年至 2023 年期间黄金价格上涨的大部分原因。当时平均价格约为每盎司 445 美元。在 2008-09 年世界金融危机前夕，由于投资 ETFs 变得异常容易，黄金价格翻倍至每盎司 1000 美元。金融危机之后，价格持续上涨，因为各国央行开始减少美元储备并购买黄金，逆转了数十年的黄金抛售。
In 2020, gold prices rose sharply again to $2,000, when the pandemic-driven shutdown of businesses briefly caused stocks to plunge. Then around 2023, flows of money into gold ETFs leveled off, but, strangely, gold prices kept rising.
2020 年，由于疫情导致的商业关闭，股票市场短暂暴跌，黄金价格再次急剧上涨至每盎司 2000 美元。然后到 2023 年左右，流入黄金 ETFs 的资金流动趋于平稳，但奇怪的是，黄金价格却持续上涨。
The likely trigger, according to Dr. Harvey, was the West’s sanctions against Russia after it invaded Ukraine. When China saw how effectively the U.S. could punish Moscow by cutting off its access to the dollar-dominated financial system, it sped up its sales of dollars and boosted gold purchases.
根据哈维博士的说法，可能的触发因素是西方国家在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后对其实施的制裁。当中国看到美国通过切断其接触以美元为主导的金融体系来惩罚莫斯科的有效性时，它加快了美元的销售并增加了黄金的购买。
Could these changes create a new normal of higher-priced gold?
这些变化能否创造一个金价更高的新常态？
Maybe not, Dr, Harvey says, because at the moment there’s no real alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency. (The market for dollars dwarfs the euro and other currencies. In the future, if they’ve established more of a reliable track record, cryptocurrencies like bitcoin might play that role.) That reserve status props up the dollar’s value.
也许不是，哈维博士说，因为目前还没有真正的替代美元作为储备货币的选项。（美元市场远远超过欧元和其他货币。未来，如果它们建立了更可靠的记录，像比特币这样的加密货币可能会扮演这个角色。）这种储备地位支撑了美元的价值。
But if governments allow other entities, such as commercial banks and insurance companies, to hold gold as emergency reserves, then that extra demand could prove even more game-changing than the introduction of gold ETFs. Already, earlier this year, China allowed its insurance companies to hold 1% of their reserves in gold.
但如果是政府允许其他实体，如商业银行和保险公司，持有黄金作为紧急储备，那么这种额外需求可能会比黄金 ETFs 的引入更具颠覆性。今年早些时候，中国已经允许其保险公司将其储备金的 1%投资于黄金。
“There’s a lot of upside here,” Professor Harvey says. But “I want to make it clear that there’s many things that could lead to a lower price, also.”
“这里有很多上涨空间，” 哈维教授说。但“我想明确指出，也有很多因素可能导致价格下跌。”
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