【顶刊速览】Management Science最新一期论文（2025-08）

Entrepreneurial Fundraising Strategies and the Gender Gap: Theory and Evidence from Equity Crowdfunding

创业融资策略与性别差距：来自股权众筹的理论与证据

作者：Thomas Hellmann , Ilona Mostipan, Nir Vulkan 

摘要：Start-ups with female founders typically raise less money than their male counterparts. Prior literature explores investor demand and finds evidence of assortative matching, where investors prefer to invest in entrepreneurs of their own gender. In the context of equity crowdfunding, we examine the supply side of the gender funding gap, asking how female and male founders anticipate different investor demand. We develop an assortative matching theory that generates four benchmark predictions, namely that female founders (i) ask for less funding, (ii) have the same campaign success probability, (iii) receive less funding if successful, and (iv) have the same overfunding ratio, defined as the ratio of funding received over funding requested. Leveraging proprietary data from a UK equity crowdfunding platform that includes both successful and unsuccessful ventures, the evidence matches the first three predictions, also finding that all-female teams have larger funding gaps than mixed-gender teams. For the overfunding ratio, we find that mixed-gender (all-female) teams have higher (lower) overfunding ratios than the all-male benchmark. We also find that female investors fund mixed-gender teams relatively more, whereas male investors give disproportionately less to all-female teams. Gender gaps increase for more capital-intensive ventures.

由女性创始人创立的初创企业通常比男性创始人创立的初创企业筹集到的资金更少。以往文献主要研究投资者需求层面，并发现了 “同类匹配” 的证据，即投资者更倾向于投资与自身性别相同的创业者。在股权众筹背景下，本文聚焦性别融资差距的供给端，探究女性与男性创始人如何预期不同的投资者需求。本文构建了一个同类匹配理论，该理论得出四个基准预测：（1）女性创始人的融资请求额更低；（2）男女创始人的融资活动成功率相同；（3）若融资成功，女性创始人获得的资金更少；（4）男女创始人的超额融资率（定义为实际获得资金与请求融资额的比率）相同。利用英国某股权众筹平台的专有数据（该数据同时包含成功和失败的创业项目）进行实证检验，结果与前三个预测相符，同时发现全女性团队的融资差距大于混合性别团队。在超额融资率方面，研究发现混合性别团队的超额融资率高于全男性团队基准，而全女性团队的超额融资率则低于该基准。此外，女性投资者对混合性别团队的投资相对更多，而男性投资者对全女性团队的投资则显著更少。对于资本密集度更高的创业项目，性别融资差距进一步扩大。

Big Data Availability and Asymmetric Voluntary Disclosures

大数据可得性与非对称自愿披露

作者：Clark Liu , Yancheng Qiu, Shujing Wang , P. Eric Yeung 

摘要：We exploit staggered releases of satellite data on parking lot traffic across U.S. retailers and conduct the stacked Poisson regression to identify the causal effect of big data availability on corporate voluntary disclosure. We document a significant decrease in management good news forecasts following the satellite data release, whereas bad news forecasts are unaffected. The asymmetric decrease cannot be explained by the demand-side substitution hypothesis. Our evidence suggests that the supply-side “meeting guidance” hypothesis is likely to account for the disappearing good news forecasts. We also derive cross-sectional predictions from the hypothesis and confirm them in the data: The decrease in good news forecasts is more pronounced among short-horizon quarterly guidance than long-term forecasts and when firms have higher institutional ownership, higher operating uncertainty, and higher litigation risk of missing guidance.

本文利用美国零售商停车场流量卫星数据的分阶段发布这一外生事件，采用堆叠泊松回归方法，识别大数据可得性对企业自愿披露行为的因果效应。研究发现，卫星数据发布后，管理层发布的利好消息预测显著减少，而利空消息预测未受影响。这种非对称减少无法用需求端替代假说解释。本文证据表明，供给端的 “达到业绩指引” 假说可能是利好消息预测减少的原因。基于该假说，本文进一步推导了横截面预测，并通过数据验证了这些预测：与长期预测相比，短期季度业绩指引中的利好消息预测减少更为显著；当企业的机构持股比例更高、经营不确定性更大、未达到业绩指引的诉讼风险更高时，利好消息预测的减少也更为明显。

Angry Borrowers: Ex Post Effects of Social Shaming on Debt Repayment

愤怒的借款人：社会羞辱对债务偿还的事后影响

作者：Li Liao, Zhengwei Wang , Hongjun Yan , Jun Yang , Congyi Zhou 

摘要：We examine the consequences of an intrusive debt-collection tactic that targets delinquent borrowers’ social circles. Our identification strategy relies on the fact that some of the delinquent loans are not worked on because of collection agents’ excessive workload. Using two approaches to estimate the local treatment effect, we show that this social-shaming tactic backfires and substantially increases the borrowers’ default rate. Borrowers with better outside options for credit access and male borrowers respond more strongly after they are shamed socially. These findings are in general consistent with the negative reciprocity interpretation; angered borrowers retaliate by defaulting on their loans.

本文研究了一种侵入性债务催收策略（针对违约借款人的社交圈进行催收）的后果。本文的识别策略基于以下事实：由于催收人员工作量过大，部分违约贷款未能得到催收处理。通过两种方法估计局部处理效应，本文发现这种社会羞辱策略会产生反效果，显著提高借款人的违约率。拥有更好外部信贷选择的借款人以及男性借款人，在遭受社会羞辱后的反应更为强烈。这些发现总体上与 “负互惠” 解释一致：愤怒的借款人通过违约来报复。

When Emotion AI Meets Strategic Users

当情感人工智能遇上策略性用户

作者：Yifan Yu , Wendao Xue , Lin Jia , Yong Tan 

摘要：When organizations adopt artificial intelligence (AI) to recognize individuals’ negative emotions and accordingly allocate limited resources, strategic users are incentivized to game the system by misrepresenting their emotions. The value of AI in automating such emotion-driven allocation may be undermined by gaming behavior, algorithmic noise in emotion detection, and the spillover effect of negative emotions. We develop a game-theoretical model to understand emotion AI adoption, particularly in customer care, and analyze the design of the associated allocation policies. We find that adopting emotion AI is valuable if the spillover effect of negative emotions is negligible compared with resource misallocation loss, regardless of algorithmic noise and gaming behavior. We also quantify the welfare impacts of emotion AI on the users, organization, and society. Notably, a stronger AI is not always socially desirable and regulation on emotion-driven allocation is needed. Finally, we characterize conditions under which leveraging the AI system is preferred to hiring human employees in emotion-driven allocation. We also explore the alternative application of using emotion AI to monitor strategic employees and compare it with hiring a human manager for monitoring. Intriguingly, algorithmic noise may increase the profit of AI monitoring. Our work provides implications for designing, adopting, and regulating emotion AI.

当组织采用人工智能（AI）识别个体的负面情绪并据此分配有限资源时，策略性用户会受到激励，通过伪装情绪来“操纵” 该系统。AI 在自动化此类“情绪驱动型资源分配” 中的价值可能会因操纵行为、情绪检测中的算法噪声以及负面情绪的溢出效应而受损。本文构建了一个博弈论模型，以理解情感AI 的应用（尤其在客户服务领域），并分析相关资源分配政策的设计。研究发现，若负面情绪的溢出效应相较于资源错配损失可忽略不计，无论存在算法噪声还是操纵行为，采用情感AI 都是有价值的。本文还量化了情感AI 对用户、组织和社会的福利影响。值得注意的是，性能更强的AI 并非总能提升社会福利，因此需要对情绪驱动型资源分配进行监管。最后，本文明确了在情绪驱动型资源分配中，采用AI 系统优于雇佣人类员工的条件，并探究了情感AI 的另一种应用场景—— 监控策略性员工，同时将其与雇佣人类管理者进行监控的方式进行比较。有趣的是，算法噪声可能会提高AI 监控的收益。本文的研究为情感AI 的设计、应用和监管提供了启示。

Evaluating the Effect of Soda Taxes Using a Dynamic Model of Rational Addiction

基于理性成瘾动态模型评估苏打税效应

作者：Jong Yeob Kim , Masakazu Ishihara 

摘要：The obesity rate has grown to epidemic proportions in the United States. Recent scientific studies suggest that excess intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is one of the primary contributors to weight gain. One option to address the growing obesity epidemic is to discourage SSB consumption through fiscal policies such as imposing a soda excise tax. In this paper, we apply the Becker-Murphy model of rational addiction to present evidence that consumers are rationally addicted to the consumption of soda drinks that contain caffeine and/or sugar. Motivated by the evidence, we build a dynamic structural model to quantify the impact of soda taxes on soda purchases and consumption and study the role of addiction in influencing this impact. We extend the canonical rational addiction model by introducing a multidimensional framework of addiction, which allows for the decomposition of addiction in the context of soda consumption into two distinct components: caffeine and sugar. Using the parameter estimates, we conduct counterfactual analyses based on realistic policy scenarios and evaluate how different tax policies would affect soda purchases. For example, one policy experiment indicates that a tax of one cent per ounce only on sugary soda categories would lead to a 50.2% decrease in sugary soda consumption. In addition, we find that sugar seems to play a bigger role in influencing substitution patterns than caffeine. We further investigate how these taxes affect welfare through a change in addiction level and emphasize the importance of addiction by comparing estimation results with and without addiction in the model. To understand the externalities associated with soda taxation, we integrate our counterfactual results with causal estimates from recent medical literature. Our findings suggest that individuals could decrease their medical costs by $642 to $717 per year under various tax schemes. These results underscore the potential of soda taxes to significantly improve public health and reduce obesity-related healthcare costs.

美国的肥胖率已达到流行病程度。近期科学研究表明，过量摄入含糖饮料（SSBs）是导致体重增加的主要原因之一。应对日益严重的肥胖流行病的一种方案是通过财政政策（如征收苏打税）抑制含糖饮料消费。本文应用贝克尔- 墨菲理性成瘾模型，证实消费者对含咖啡因或糖的苏打饮料存在理性成瘾行为。基于这一证据，本文构建了一个动态结构模型，量化苏打税对苏打饮料购买和消费的影响，并探究成瘾性在其中发挥的作用。本文对经典理性成瘾模型进行拓展，引入多维度成瘾框架，将苏打饮料消费中的成瘾性分解为两个不同维度：咖啡因成瘾和糖成瘾。利用参数估计结果，本文基于现实政策场景进行反事实分析，评估不同税收政策对苏打饮料购买的影响。例如，一项政策实验表明，仅对含糖苏打饮料类别征收每盎司1美分的税，将使含糖苏打饮料消费减少50.2%。此外，研究发现，在影响替代模式方面，糖的作用似乎比咖啡因更大。本文进一步探究这些税收如何通过改变成瘾程度影响福利，并通过比较包含与不包含成瘾性的模型估计结果，强调成瘾性的重要性。为理解苏打税相关的外部性，本文将反事实分析结果与近期医学文献的因果估计相结合。研究发现，在不同税收方案下，个人每年的医疗成本可降低642 至717 美元。这些结果凸显了苏打税在显著改善公共健康和降低肥胖相关医疗成本方面的潜力。

Cross-Extrapolative Beliefs: Evidence from Equity Analysts

跨领域推断信念：来自股权分析师的证据

作者：Rex Wang Renjie , Patrick Verwijmeren 

摘要：We study whether individuals form extrapolative beliefs across different tasks. In line with cross-extrapolation, equity analysts who experience bad news from some of their coverage firms become overly pessimistic about other firms in their coverage. This leads to disagreement among analysts and has implications for the stock market, as we observe effects on trading volume, return volatility, and pricing. Our findings highlight the relevance of non-domain-specific belief models.

本文研究个体是否会在不同任务间形成推断信念。与 “跨领域推断” 一致，当股权分析师从其覆盖的部分公司获得负面消息时，他们会对覆盖的其他公司过度悲观。这种现象导致分析师之间出现意见分歧，并对股票市场产生影响—— 研究观察到其对交易量、回报波动率和定价均存在作用。本文的发现凸显了非领域特异性信念模型的相关性。

Access to Debt and the Provision of Trade Credit

债务可得性与商业信用提供

作者：Matthew Billett, Kayla Freeman , Janet Gao 

摘要：We examine how access to debt markets affects firms’ incentives to provide trade credit. Using hand-collected trade credit data between customer-supplier pairs and two exogenous shocks to firms’ debt capacity, we show that better access to debt reduces firms’ provision of trade credit per dollar of sales. The decline in trade credit is concentrated on ex ante powerful customers, but absent for weak ones, suggesting that better access to debt improves firms’ bargaining position relative to powerful customers. The decline in trade credit leads customers to cut investment, increase leverage, and scale back trade credit provision to firms further downstream.

本文研究债务市场可得性如何影响企业提供商业信用的动机。利用手工收集的客户 - 供应商配对商业信用数据，以及两个影响企业债务能力的外生冲击，本文发现：债务可得性的改善会降低企业每单位销售额对应的商业信用提供额。商业信用的减少主要集中在事前具有较强议价能力的客户身上，而对议价能力较弱的客户则无此影响，这表明债务可得性的改善提升了企业相对于强势客户的议价地位。商业信用的减少导致客户削减投资、提高杠杆率，并减少对下游企业的商业信用提供。

Relatively Robust Multicriteria Decisions

相对稳健的多准则决策

作者：Thomas A. Weber 

摘要：For a general multicriteria decision problem with linear scalarization and unknown weights, we propose relatively robust decisions, which are Pareto-efficient and at the same time maximize a performance index. The latter measures the worst-case ratio, attained by the weighted objective relative to its maximum value, with respect to all possible weights. The main results include a simple boundary representation of the performance index as the minimum of criterion-specific performance ratios, and a computationally simple method of determining a relatively robust decision up to any prespecified performance tolerance by maximizing an augmented performance index. The proposed method relies merely on the continuity of all criterion functions and the compactness of the set of feasible decisions which may be nonconvex. This imposes no restrictions at all for any finite action set. A notable feature of our method is that it endogenously yields the tradeoffs between all criteria, including a performance guarantee relative to decisions justified by any other weighting. A number of structural results, examples, and applications are provided, as well as generalizations to allow for limited weight ambiguity, criterion ambiguity, and generalized aggregation of criteria based on an axiomatic foundation.

针对权重未知的线性加权多准则决策问题，本文提出 “相对稳健决策” 概念 —— 这类决策既满足帕累托最优，又能最大化一个绩效指标。该绩效指标衡量在所有可能权重下，加权目标函数值相对于其最大值的最坏情况比率。本文的主要研究结果包括：（1）将该绩效指标简化为边界表示，即各准则特定绩效比率的最小值；（2）提出一种计算简便的方法，通过最大化ε 增强型绩效指标，可确定满足任意预设绩效容忍度的相对稳健决策。该方法仅依赖于所有准则函数的连续性和可行决策集的紧性（可行集可为非凸集），因此对任何有限行动集均无限制。该方法的一个显著特点是，它能内生地得出所有准则之间的权衡关系，包括相对于其他任何权重下合理决策的绩效保证。本文还提供了一系列结构性结果、示例和应用，并对模型进行拓展，以涵盖有限权重不确定性、准则不确定性以及基于公理基础的准则广义聚合问题。

Accounting for Asymmetry in the Investment–q Relation: Redux of Financial Reporting Quality and Investment Efficiency

投资-q 关系中的非对称性考量：财务报告质量与投资效率的再探讨

作者：Sunil Dutta , Lukasz Langer, Panos N. Patatoukas 

摘要：Many studies use linear regressions of investment on Tobin’s q to estimate normal investment levels, often concluding that financial reporting quality enhances investment efficiency. Our findings suggest these inferences are confounded by two key factors. First, consistent with asymmetric capital adjustment costs, investment is significantly less responsive to q values below one than to those above one. Second, firms with q values below one systematically exhibit lower financial reporting quality. By pooling q values above and below one, the standard linear investment–q model introduces substantial upward bias in prior estimates of the relation between reporting quality and investment efficiency. To address this issue, we propose a piecewise linear specification of the investment–q model that accounts for the distinct characteristics of observations when q is below one. This adjustment is crucial when the likelihood of q falling below one is systematically linked to the hypothesized determinants of investment efficiency.

许多研究采用投资对托宾 q 的线性回归来估计正常投资水平，并常得出 “财务报告质量提升投资效率” 的结论。本文研究发现，这些推断受到两个关键因素的干扰：首先，与非对称资本调整成本一致，当q 值低于1 时，投资对q 的敏感度显著低于q 值高于1 的情况；其次，q 值低于1 的企业在财务报告质量上通常更低。标准的投资-q线性模型将q值高于1和低于1 的样本混同处理，导致以往对 “报告质量与投资效率关系” 的估计存在显著向上偏差。为解决这一问题，本文提出投资- q 模型的分段线性设定，以考虑q 值低于1 时样本的独特特征。当q 值低于1 的可能性与投资效率的假设决定因素存在系统性关联时，这种调整至关重要。

Managerial Insight and “Optimal” Algorithms

管理者洞察力与 “最优” 算法

作者：Blair Flicker

摘要：Work is increasingly being completed by humans and algorithms in collaboration. A relative strength of humans in this partnership is their insight: private information that is relevant to the task but not available to computerized systems. I introduce a flexible model of managerial insight that accepts any distribution of demand, an advantage over alternative models, and apply it to the newsvendor setting. The optimal policy in this setting is theoretically straightforward but difficult for managers to implement directly. I propose a novel method called FIND that leverages historical forecasts to convert a point estimate of demand into a conditional probability distribution. In eight experiments, FIND outperforms all other ordering regimes considered over a broad range of conditions. To model subtle, unstructured demand signals, the last four experiments convey managerial insight nonquantitatively using images, colors, and tones. FIND performs equally well with these perceptual signals as it does with more traditional numerical signals.

如今，工作越来越多地由人类与算法协作完成。在这种协作中，人类的一个相对优势是 “洞察力”—— 即与任务相关但计算机系统无法获取的私有信息。本文提出一个灵活的管理者洞察力模型，该模型可接受任何需求分布（这是其相对于其他模型的优势），并将其应用于报童模型场景。该场景下的最优策略在理论上简洁明了，但管理者难以直接执行。本文提出一种名为“FIND” 的新方法，该方法利用历史预测将需求点估计转化为条件概率分布。在八项实验中，FIND 在广泛的条件下表现优于所有其他考虑的订购机制。为模拟微妙、非结构化的需求信号，最后四项实验通过图像、颜色和语气等非定量方式传递管理者洞察力。结果显示，FIND 在处理这些感知信号时，与处理更传统的数值信号时表现同样出色。

Boardroom Centrality and Systematic Risk of Firms

董事会中心性与企业系统性风险 

作者：Chen, Yao Lu , Dengjin Zheng 

摘要:We find that boardroom centrality increases the market beta of firms. The higher stock returns of firms with high boardroom centrality diminish and turn statistically insignificant after controlling for market betas. The effect can be attributed to a comovement in accounting fundamentals and financial policies. Overall, these findings highlight the fact that the social networks of corporate leaders (i.e., directors of corporate boards) can have a substantial effect on firms’ systematic risk exposure.

本文研究发现，董事会中心性（董事会在社会网络中的中心程度）会提高企业的市场贝塔系数（系统性风险指标）。在控制市场贝塔系数后，董事会中心性高的企业的高股票回报会减弱，且在统计上变得不显著。这种效应可归因于会计基本面和财务政策的协同变动。总体而言，这些发现凸显了企业领导者（即董事会成员）的社会网络可能对企业的系统性风险敞口产生重大影响。

Pricing Control and Regulation on Online Service Platforms

在线服务平台的定价控制与监管

摘要：Gérard P. Cachon , Tolga Dizdarer , Gerry Tsoukalas 

摘要：An open debate in platform design is who should control pricing: the platform (centralized pricing) or its service providers (decentralized pricing). We show that a key trade-off is between regulating competition and enabling price tailoring. Centralized pricing allows the platform to manage competition, but it faces information asymmetry as it cannot observe agent costs. Decentralized pricing lets agents adjust prices to their costs, but without oversight, competition can become too strong (prices too low) or too weak (prices too high). For commission-based platforms, either form of price control can prevail depending on market conditions, implying that neither dominates. However, a relatively simple tweak—adopting an affine fee structure based on posted prices or quantities served—allows the platform to decentralize pricing control without sacrificing optimality. This flexibility further supports agent classification as independent contractors, offering platforms a valuable strategic option for how to structure their workforce.

平台设计中的一个开放性争议是 “定价控制权归属”：应由平台掌握（集中定价）还是由服务提供者掌握（分散定价）。本文研究表明，核心权衡在于“监管竞争” 与“价格定制” 之间：集中定价使平台能够管理竞争，但面临信息不对称问题（平台无法观测服务提供者的成本）；分散定价允许服务提供者根据自身成本调整价格，但缺乏监管可能导致竞争过强（价格过低）或过弱（价格过高）。对于基于佣金的平台，两种定价控制方式的优劣取决于市场条件，不存在绝对占优的方式。然而，一个相对简单的调整——采用基于报价或服务量的仿射费用结构——可使平台在分散定价控制权的同时不牺牲最优性。这种灵活性进一步支持将服务提供者归类为独立承包商，为平台提供了workforce 结构设计的宝贵战略选择。

Communication, Learning, and Bargaining Breakdown: An Empirical Analysis

沟通、学习与谈判破裂：一项实证分析

作者：Matthew Backus, Thomas Blake, Jett Pettus, Steven Tadelis 

摘要：Bargaining breakdown is common in bargaining in environments with incomplete information. We study whether, in these environments, permitting communication impacts bargaining outcomes. On May 23, 2016, eBay Germany’s Best Offer platform introduced unstructured communication allowing desktop users, but not mobile users, to accompany offers with a message. Using this natural experiment, our difference-in-differences approach documents a 14% decrease in the rate of breakdown among compliers. Though adoption is immediate, the effect is not. We show, using text analysis, that the dynamics are consistent with repeat players learning how to use communication in bargaining. Finally, tying the two results together, we show that messages that emulate the text content of experienced sellers are more likely to be accepted.

在信息不完全的环境中，谈判破裂十分常见。本文研究在这类环境中，允许沟通是否会影响谈判结果。2016 年5月23日，德国eBay 的“最优报价”（Best Offer）平台引入非结构化沟通功能，允许桌面端用户（而非移动端用户）在提交报价时附带信息。利用这一自然实验，本文采用双重差分法发现，受该功能影响的用户（依从者）的谈判破裂率下降了14%。尽管沟通功能的采用是即时的，但其效果并非即时显现。通过文本分析，本文表明这种动态特征与“重复参与者学习如何在谈判中使用沟通” 的过程一致。最后，将上述两个结果关联分析发现，模仿经验丰富卖家文本内容的信息，被接受的可能性更高。

A Modeling Framework for Tipping in the Presence of a Social Norm

存在社会规范下的小费行为建模框架

作者：Laurens G. Debo , Ran I. Snitkovsky 

摘要：Tipping is a complex phenomenon cutting across various stakeholders—firms, customers, and workers. Analyzing the long-run impact of policies related to tipping is therefore challenging. To facilitate such analysis, we develop a modeling framework in which a tipping norm forms endogenously in a market consisting of a firm that offers service to potential customers. Customers choose whether to consume the service or not and, if yes, how much to tip the server afterward. With tipping, customers show appreciation to the server by sharing a fraction of their surplus but also undergo social pressure to comply with the prevailing norm. This tipping norm is shown to evolve endogenously through a dynamic process of sequential market adjustments over time: the average tip in each period determines the tipping norm for the following period, causing the firm to adapt the price and customers to adapt their tips accordingly. Characterization of this equilibrium outcome allows us to derive qualitative results on the long-run impact of different exogenous factors on tipping: we find that the equilibrium tip-to-price ratio increases when customers are more sensitive to social pressure, their range of service valuations spreads out, or they consider the service more valuable. Building on this framework, we further investigate several economic implications of tipping pertaining to social welfare, labor cost, and service quality, thus uncovering incentives and trade-offs to which the tipping mechanism gives rise from the firm, the worker, and the customer’s perspectives.

小费是一种涉及多方利益相关者（企业、顾客、员工）的复杂现象，因此分析与小费相关的政策长期影响具有挑战性。为便于此类分析，本文构建了一个建模框架：在由 “提供服务的企业” 和“潜在顾客” 组成的市场中，小费规范内生形成。顾客决定是否消费服务；若消费，则在事后决定给服务员多少小费。通过小费，顾客一方面向服务员表达感谢（分享部分自身剩余），另一方面也因遵守普遍规范而承受社会压力。研究表明，小费规范通过“市场逐期序贯调整” 的动态过程内生演化：每一期的平均小费水平决定下一期的小费规范，进而促使企业调整价格、顾客调整小费金额。通过刻画这一均衡结果，本文推导了不同外生因素对小费行为的长期影响：研究发现，当顾客对社会压力更敏感、服务估值区间扩大或认为服务更具价值时，均衡小费-价格比会提高。基于该框架，本文进一步探究了小费在社会福利、劳动力成本和服务质量方面的经济含义，揭示了小费机制从企业、员工和顾客视角带来的激励与权衡。

Minimum Viable Signal: Venture Funding, Social Movements, and Race

最小可行信号：风险投资、社会运动与种族

作者：Matt Marx , Qian Wang , Emmanuel Yimfor 

摘要：How do venture capital investors react to social movements, including those that relate to historical underrepresentation in funding? We use image and name algorithms combined with clerical review to classify race for 150,000 founders and 30,000 investors. These data allow us to assess the impact of George Floyd’s murder on VC funding of Black entrepreneurs and identify which VCs were most responsive. Although VCs responded swiftly, investment in Black-founded startups reverted to prior levels within two years. This temporary reaction was concentrated among those who had never previously invested in any Black entrepreneur. Moreover, the investors who responded were less likely to invest in more than one Black-founded startup and were less inclined to engage deeply by taking a board seat. Finally, it appears that the best Black entrepreneurs may have anticipated this “token” response because they did not match with investors who had no experience funding Black startups.

风险投资家如何应对社会运动（包括与融资中历史代表性不足相关的运动）？本文结合图像和姓名算法以及人工核验，对15万名创始人和3万名投资者进行种族分类。利用这些数据，本文评估了乔治・弗洛伊德遇害事件对风险投资支持黑人创业者的影响，并识别出反应最积极的风险投资机构。尽管风险投资机构反应迅速，但对黑人创立企业的投资在两年内回落至事件前水平。这种暂时性反应主要集中在“此前从未投资过任何黑人创业者” 的风险投资机构中。此外，做出反应的投资者对多个黑人创立企业进行投资的可能性更低，且通过加入董事会深度参与企业运营的意愿也更低。最后，研究发现，最优秀的黑人创业者似乎预见到了这种“象征性” 反应——他们不愿与“无黑人创业投资经验” 的投资者匹配。

SPAC IPOs and Sponsor Network Centrality

特殊目的收购公司首次公开发行（SPAC IPO）与发起人网络中心性

作者：Chen Lin , Fangzhou Lu , Roni Michaely , Shihua Qin 

摘要：The structure of a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) generates significant information asymmetry for public investors and provides a special role for its sponsors. Leveraging the unique characteristics of SPACs, this study reexamines the debate over the role of managerial network centrality in affecting M&A outcomes, namely, whether network centrality allows for more private benefits or rather adds value to firms and helps reduce information asymmetry. Specifically, we show that sponsors’ private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) connections, measured by their network centrality, explain a large portion of postmerger return variation in the cross-section. A one-standard-deviation increase in sponsors’ network centrality leads to a 1.9% higher merger and acquisition success probability and a 1.3% higher postmerger monthly abnormal return. We attribute this outperformance of firms with high managerial PE network centrality to superior fundraising and deal-sourcing abilities. Moreover, this effect is particularly pronounced in a cold market and among SPAC sponsors with more “skin in the game.” Overall, we show that network connections reflect managers’ value-creation ability more than their rent-seeking capacity; these connections can add value to mergers and help alleviate information asymmetry and associated moral hazard issues, especially when managers’ private benefits are closely linked to postmerger firm performance.

特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的结构给公众投资者带来显著信息不对称，并使其发起人扮演特殊角色。本文利用 SPAC 的独特特征，重新探讨“管理层网络中心性对并购结果的作用” 这一争议话题—— 即网络中心性是为管理层带来更多私人收益，还是为企业创造价值并帮助降低信息不对称。具体而言，本文研究表明，发起人通过网络中心性衡量的私募股权（PE）和风险投资（VC）关联，能够解释并购后回报横截面差异的很大一部分。发起人网络中心性每提高一个标准差，并购成功率提高1.9%，并购后月度异常回报提高1.3%。本文将“高管理层PE 网络中心性企业的优异表现” 归因于其更强的融资能力和交易挖掘能力。此外，这种效应在市场低迷期以及“发起人投入更多自有资金（skin in the game）” 的SPAC 中更为显著。总体而言，本文研究表明，网络关联更多反映管理层的价值创造能力而非寻租能力；这些关联能够为并购创造价值，并帮助缓解信息不对称及相关道德风险问题，尤其当管理层的私人收益与并购后企业绩效紧密挂钩时。

Ultra-Fresh Fashion: Creating Demand with Freshness and Agility

超新鲜时尚：通过新鲜度与敏捷性创造需求

作者：Li Chen , Hau Lee , Shiqing Yao 

摘要：Using agile supply chains, fast fashion companies have been viewed as best practice examples in industries. Prior research focuses on how agility can equip such companies with strong sense-and-respond capabilities to identify and fulfill unpredictable customer demands. There is another powerful dimension of agility—the ability to create new products frequently—that has enabled recent market success of companies such as Shein and Temu, labeled by some industry press as ultra-fast fashion. These companies, relying on end-to-end digital technologies, have pushed this dimension of agility to unprecedentedly high levels, launching new products with great frequency and variety. The frequent product launches create freshness, stimulating latent demands of consumers and making these companies “ultra-fresh” fashion, a term we adopt in this paper. We seek to model this dimension of agility as an operational strategy for demand creation. Our model enables us to explore the effects through the lens of profit to the firm, consumer surplus, and environmental impact. Our analysis reveals that frequent product launches, high variety, and low prices—the three salient features of ultra-fresh fashion—are driven by both the product design agility and the customers’ interest for product freshness. The ultra-fresh strategy allows steady profit increase for the firm and benefits consumers in aggregate but may cause negative environmental impact if left unchecked.

凭借敏捷供应链，快时尚企业被视为各行业的标杆。以往研究聚焦于 “敏捷性如何使企业具备强大的感知-响应能力，以识别并满足不可预测的顾客需求”。然而，敏捷性还有另一个重要维度—— 频繁推出新产品的能力，这一维度推动了希音（Shein）、temu 等企业近期的市场成功（部分行业媒体将其称为 “超快速时尚”）。这些企业依靠端到端数字技术，将这一维度的敏捷性提升至前所未有的水平，以极高的频率和多样性推出新产品。频繁的产品推出创造了 “新鲜度”，激发了消费者的潜在需求，使这些企业成为本文所定义的 “超新鲜时尚” 企业。本文旨在将敏捷性的这一维度建模为“需求创造的运营策略”，并从企业利润、消费者剩余和环境影响三个视角探究其效应。分析表明，超新鲜时尚的三个显著特征——频繁产品推出、高多样性、低价格——是由“产品设计敏捷性” 和“顾客对产品新鲜度的需求” 共同驱动的。超新鲜策略能使企业利润稳步增长，并总体上使消费者受益，但若不加管控，可能会产生负面环境影响。

Invest Local or Remote? The Effects of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Venture Capital Investment Around the World

本地投资还是远程投资？新冠疫情封锁对全球风险投资的影响

作者：Pengfei Han , Chunrui Liu , Xuan Tian , Kexin Wang 

摘要：We find the “death of distance” in venture capital (VC) investment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: VCs invest in more distant startups during the COVID-19 lockdowns, and such effects continue after the economy reopens. The death of distance is more pronounced when there is better internet infrastructure, lower information asymmetry between VCs and entrepreneurs, and smaller deal size. The pandemic-spurred advancement and adoption of remote communication technology contribute to the documented observations. The death of distance in VC investment implies more vibrant entry of outside VCs into geographically localized markets, intensified competition among VCs, and mitigated regional inequality of entrepreneurial access to VC financing.

本文研究发现，新冠疫情导致风险投资（VC）领域出现“距离消亡” 现象：在疫情封锁期间，风险投资机构对更远距离初创企业的投资增加，且这种效应在经济重启后依然持续。当互联网基础设施更完善、风险投资机构与创业者之间信息不对称程度更低、交易规模更小时，“距离消亡” 现象更为显著。疫情推动的远程通信技术发展与应用，是这一现象的重要原因。风险投资领域的“距离消亡” 意味着更多外部风险投资机构进入地理本地化市场，加剧了风险投资机构间的竞争，并缓解了创业者获取风险投资融资的区域不平等问题。

Do Professional Rankings Affect Analyst Behavior? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design

专业排名是否影响分析师行为？来自断点回归设计的证据

作者：Michael J. Jung , Yiqing Lü , Hong Wu , Yuhai Xuan 

摘要：This study examines how winning a significant industry award affects the behavior of finance professionals. Focusing on sell-side equity analysts and utilizing a novel data set from Institutional Investor on analyst rankings, we employ a regression discontinuity design that compares the postaward research outputs and behavior of third-place, all-star analysts with those of first runner-up analysts who barely miss the distinction. Our results show that third-place all-star winners are more optimistic in their forecasts and recommendations compared with first runner-up analysts after winning the award, and market reactions to their forecast revisions are stronger. The third-place winners also receive higher priority during earnings conference calls and experience better career outcomes. Our evidence is consistent with award-winning analysts leveraging their increased reputation and market influence to generate more trading commissions and career benefits. The broader inference of our findings is that finance professionals who win a significant award are likely to become more, rather than less, strategic.

本文研究获得重要行业奖项如何影响金融从业者的行为。以卖方股权分析师为研究对象，利用《机构投资者》（Institutional Investor）杂志分析师排名的新数据集，本文采用断点回归设计，比较“获得第三名全明星分析师” 与“差一点获得该称号的第二名候选分析师” 在获奖后的研究产出与行为差异。结果表明，获奖后，第三名全明星分析师的预测和推荐比第二名候选分析师更乐观，且市场对其预测调整的反应更强。此外，第三名获奖分析师在财报电话会议中获得更高优先级，职业发展结果也更好。这些证据与“获奖分析师利用提升的声誉和市场影响力获取更多交易佣金和职业收益” 的逻辑一致。本文研究的更广泛启示是：获得重要奖项的金融从业者可能会变得更具策略性，而非相反。

Competitive Dynamics in the Political Marketplace: How Donor Firms’ Political Wins Prompt Product-Market Peers to Appoint Politicians to Their Boards

政治市场中的竞争动态：捐赠企业的政治胜利如何促使产品市场同行任命政客进入董事会

作者：Zhiyan Wu , Wenjiao Cao 

摘要：Using a regression discontinuity design in a sample of U.S. federal special elections, we investigate how donor firms’ political wins impact the adaptive responses of their product-market peers in their political activities, with a particular focus on the appointment of politicians to their boardrooms. By analyzing closely contested special elections, we find that when donor firms had donated to a candidate who narrowly won a special election, their peer firms were 41% more likely to appoint politicians to their boards in the following year than peers of the donor firms that had supported a narrowly defeated candidate. This adaptive response is more pronounced among peer firms facing greater political risks and operating in industries with more intense competition for government sales. Donor firms’ political wins also lead peer firms to increase their product differentiation from those donor firms. We interpret these patterns as evidence of a competitive-dynamics mechanism, where peer firms perceive donor firms’ political wins as a threat that could disadvantage them in the regulatory environment, prompting them to strengthen their boards with political capital to navigate potential regulatory changes and mitigate perceived risks. Our findings enrich scholarly understandings of corporate political activities and director selections.

本文利用美国联邦特别选举样本的断点回归设计，研究捐赠企业的政治胜利如何影响其产品市场同行在政治活动中的适应性反应，尤其聚焦“任命政客进入董事会” 这一行为。通过分析竞争激烈的特别选举，本文发现：当捐赠企业支持的候选人以微弱优势赢得特别选举时，其同行企业在次年任命政客进入董事会的概率，比“支持的候选人以微弱劣势落选的捐赠企业的同行” 高41%。这种适应性反应在“面临更高政治风险” 和“政府销售竞争更激烈行业” 的同行企业中更为显著。捐赠企业的政治胜利还导致同行企业加大与捐赠企业的产品差异化。本文将这些模式解释为“竞争动态机制” 的证据：同行企业将捐赠企业的政治胜利视为“可能在监管环境中处于不利地位” 的威胁，因此通过任命政客进入董事会以增强政治资本，从而应对潜在监管变化并缓解感知风险。本文的发现丰富了对企业政治活动和董事选拔的学术理解。