Management Science 2025年 第10期 10月刊

Volume 71, Issue 10, October 2025

《Management Science》（月刊，FT50,UTD24,ABS4*）是管理学与运筹学领域国际公认的顶级期刊，创办于1954年，由美国运筹学与管理学学会（INFORMS）主办，覆盖战略、运营、金融、营销、信息系统等多个管理学研究领域，鼓励跨职能、多学科的创新研究，推动管理科学理论与实践的发展。

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本期论文概览

Who Is AI Replacing? The Impact of Generative AI on Online Freelancing Platforms

谁被 AI 取代？生成式 AI 对在线自由职业平台的影响
Ozge Demirci Jonas Hannane Xinrong Zhu

This paper studies the impact of generative artificial intelligence (AI) technologies on the demand for online freelancers using a large data set from a leading global freelancing platform. We identify the types of jobs that are more affected by generative AI and quantify the magnitude of the heterogeneous impact. Our findings indicate a 21% decrease in the number of job posts for automation-prone jobs related to writing and coding compared with jobs requiring manual-intensive skills within eight months after the introduction of ChatGPT. We show that the reduction in the number of job posts increases competition among freelancers, whereas the remaining automation-prone jobs are of greater complexity and offer higher pay. We also find that the introduction of image-generating AI technologies led to a 17% decrease in the number of job posts related to image creation. We use Google Trends to show that the more pronounced decline in the demand for freelancers within automation-prone jobs correlates with their higher public awareness of ChatGPT’s substitutability.
本文使用一家领先的全球自由职业平台的大数据集，研究了生成式人工智能（AI）技术对在线自由职业者需求的影响。我们识别了受生成式 AI 影响更大的工作类型，并量化了异质性影响的程度。我们的研究结果表明，在 ChatGPT 推出后的八个月内，与需要手动技能的工作相比，自动化倾向的工作（如写作和编码）的职位发布数量减少了 21%。我们表明，职位发布数量的减少加剧了自由职业者之间的竞争，而剩余的自动化倾向工作则更为复杂，且薪酬更高。我们还发现，图像生成 AI 技术的引入导致与图像创作相关的职位发布数量减少了 17%。我们使用 Google Trends 表明，自动化倾向工作中自由职业者需求的显著下降与其对 ChatGPT 可替代性的更高公众认知相关。

Innovation Diffusion Among Coworkers: Evidence from Senior Doctors

同事间的创新扩散：来自资深医生的证据
Eliana Barrenho , Eric Gautier , Marisa Miraldo , Carol Propper , Christiern Rose
Using a novel 15-year data set on surgeon adoption of a complex surgical innovation in the English National Health Service and an identification strategy based on surgeon mobility, this paper disentangles three channels of coworker influence on innovation diffusion: (1) peer network size, (2) influential “key players,” and (3) cumulative peer adoption. We find that a one standard deviation in peer connections boost innovation by 16%. Key players can either amplify or dampen diffusion, and peer adoption has a greater impact on less experienced individuals. These results highlight the value of targeting training to high impact network members to speed up diffusion. This work advances our understanding of how professional networks shape innovation diffusion, with implications for technology implementation.
本研究基于英格兰国家医疗服务体系 15 年的外科医生采用复杂手术创新的数据集，并采用基于外科医生流动性的识别策略，剖析了同事影响创新扩散的三个渠道：（1）同行网络规模，（2）有影响力的“关键人物”，以及（3）累积同行采用情况。我们发现，同行连接数量的一个标准差变化可提升创新效率 16%。关键人物既能放大也能抑制扩散，而同行采用对经验较少的个体影响更大。这些结果突显了针对高影响力网络成员进行培训的价值，以加速扩散进程。这项研究加深了我们对专业网络如何塑造创新扩散的理解，对技术实施具有重要启示。

Revealed Wisdom of the Crowd: Bids Predict Loan Quality

群体智慧的真谛：竞标预测贷款质量
Jiayu Yao, Mingfeng Lin, D. J. Wu
Despite the popularity of the phrase “wisdom of the crowd,” not all crowds are wise because not everyone in them acts in an informed, rational manner. Identifying informative actions, therefore, can help to isolate the truly wise part of a crowd. Motivated by this idea, we evaluate the informational value of investors’ bids using data from online, debt-based crowdfunding, in which we were able to track both investment decisions and ultimate repayment statuses for individual loans. We propose several easily scalable variables derived from the heterogeneity of investors’ bids in terms of size and timing. We first show that loans funded with larger bids relative to the typical bid amount in the market or to the bidder’s historical baseline, particularly early in the bidding period, are less likely to default. More importantly, we perform theory-driven feature engineering and find that these variables improve the predictive performance of state-of-the-art models that have been proposed in this context. Even during the fundraising process, these variables improve predictions of both funding likelihood and loan quality. We discuss the implications of these variables, including loan pricing in secondary markets, crowd wisdom in different market mechanisms, and financial inclusion. Crowdfunding platforms can easily implement these variables to improve market efficiency without compromising investor privacy.
尽管“群体智慧”这一说法广受欢迎，但并非所有群体都明智，因为群体中的每个人并非都采取知性、理性的行为。因此，识别信息量大的行为有助于分离出群体中真正明智的部分。受此想法的启发，我们利用在线债务众筹平台的数据评估投资者出价的信息价值，在该平台上我们能够追踪到个人贷款的投资决策和最终还款状态。我们提出了几个易于扩展的变量，这些变量基于投资者出价在规模和时间上的异质性。我们首先表明，相对于市场典型出价金额或出价者历史基线，使用较大出价的贷款，尤其是在竞标初期，违约的可能性较低。更重要的是，我们进行了理论驱动的特征工程，发现这些变量提高了在此背景下提出的最新模型的预测性能。即使在筹资过程中，这些变量也提高了筹资可能性和贷款质量的预测。 我们讨论了这些变量的影响，包括二级市场的贷款定价、不同市场机制中的群体智慧以及金融包容性。众筹平台可以轻松实施这些变量来提高市场效率，同时不损害投资者隐私。

Cultural Homophily and Collaboration in Superstar Teams

超级明星团队的群体同质性与协作
Gábor Békés, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano
One may reasonably think that cultural homophily, defined as the tendency to associate with others of similar culture, affects collaboration in multinational teams in general but not in superstar teams of professionals at the top of their industry. The analysis of an exhaustive data set on the passes made by professional European football players in the top five men’s leagues reveals that on the contrary, cultural homophily is persistent, pervasive, and consequential, even in superstar multinational teams of very-high-skill individuals with clear common objectives and aligned incentives who are involved in interactive tasks that are well defined and not particularly culture intensive.
人们可能会合理地认为，文化同质性——即倾向于与具有相似文化背景的人交往——会普遍影响跨国团队的协作，但不会影响行业顶尖专业人士的超星团队。对顶级五个男子足球联赛中专业欧洲足球运动员传球数据的全面分析表明，恰恰相反，文化同质性是持续存在的、普遍存在的，并且具有重大影响，即使在那些具有非常高的技能水平、拥有明确共同目标、激励机制一致、参与互动任务且任务定义清晰、文化强度不高的跨国超星团队中也是如此。

Designing Information to Engage Customers

设计信息以吸引客户
Liang Guo
Collaborative customization is common in many markets. Sellers and customers can collectively discover the value of the product’s basic design. Customers’ willingness to pay can also be increased by being engaged to improve the product design. We study how a seller can design the information structure of collective learning about the product’s basic value to induce costly customer engagement. We consider a setting in which the parties’ expected payoffs are determined endogenously through the strategic interaction between seller pricing and customer engagement and purchase. The customer tends to be engaged in equilibrium, as the uncertainty on the product’s basic value becomes higher to dilute the responsiveness of the optimal price to customer engagement. Therefore, the seller seeks to maximize the probability of generating an intermediate posterior belief. Thus, the optimal information design involves either exaggerating or downplaying the product’s basic value when the prior is low or high, respectively. We show that considering restrictive information structures can generate qualitatively different implications. We also examine how the unobservability of engagement may influence the parties’ strategic interaction, their expected payoffs, and the seller-optimal information design. Interestingly, unobservability may lead to lower equilibrium engagement, hurt the seller, render the customer’s equilibrium expected payoff to increase as customer engagement becomes less important or more costly, and yield more or less information provision.
协同定制在许多市场中很常见。卖方和顾客可以共同发现产品基本设计的价值。通过让顾客参与改进产品设计，也可以提高顾客的支付意愿。我们研究卖方如何设计关于产品基本价值集体学习的信息结构，以诱导高成本的顾客参与。我们考虑一个场景，其中各方的预期收益通过卖方定价和顾客参与及购买的策略性互动内生决定。在均衡中，顾客倾向于参与，因为产品基本价值的不确定性变得更高，从而稀释了最优价格对顾客参与的响应性。因此，卖方寻求最大化产生中间后验信念的概率。因此，最优的信息设计涉及在先验低时夸大产品基本价值，在先验高时淡化产品基本价值。我们表明，考虑限制性的信息结构可以产生质的差异。 我们还研究了参与度不可观测性如何影响各方的战略互动、他们的预期收益以及卖方最优的信息设计。有趣的是，不可观测性可能导致均衡参与度降低，损害卖方利益，使客户均衡预期收益随着客户参与度变得不那么重要或成本更高而增加，并导致提供更多信息或更少信息。

Can Socially Minded Governance Control the Artificial General Intelligence Beast?

有社会责任感的治理能控制通用人工智能的野兽吗？
Joshua S. Gans
This paper robustly concludes that it cannot. A model is constructed under idealized conditions that presume that the risks associated with artificial general intelligence (AGI) are real, that safe AGI products are possible, and that there exist socially minded funders who are interested in funding safe AGI, even if this does not maximize profits. It is demonstrated that a socially minded entity formed by such funders would not be able to minimize harm from AGI that unrestricted products released by for-profit firms might create. The reason is that a socially minded entity can only minimize the use of unrestricted AGI products in ex post competition with for-profit firms at a prohibitive financial cost and so, does not preempt the AGI developed by for-profit firms ex ante.
本文有力地得出结论，这是不可能的。在理想化条件下构建了一个模型，该模型假定与通用人工智能（AGI）相关的风险是真实的，安全的 AGI 产品是可能的，并且存在有社会责任感的资助者，他们有兴趣资助安全的 AGI，即使这不会最大化利润。该模型表明，由这些资助者组成的具有社会责任感的实体将无法减少营利性公司发布的不受限制的 AGI 产品可能造成的危害。原因是具有社会责任感的实体只能在与营利性公司的事后竞争中以过高的经济成本来减少不受限制的 AGI 产品的使用，因此，它不能事先阻止营利性公司开发的 AGI。

Sampling-Based Approximation for Series Inventory Systems

基于采样的系列库存系统近似方法
Kairen Zhang, Xiangyu Gao, Zhanyue Wang, Sean X. Zhou
We study inventory management of an infinite-horizon, series system with multiple stages. Each stage orders from its immediate upstream stage, and the most upstream stage orders from an external supplier. Random demand with unknown distribution occurs at the most downstream stage. Each stage incurs inventory holding cost while the most downstream stage also incurs demand backlogging cost when it experiences inventory shortage. The objective is to minimize the expected total discounted cost over the planning horizon. We apply the sample average approximation (SAA) method to obtain a heuristic policy (SAA policy) using the empirical distribution function constructed from a demand sample (of the underlying demand distribution). We derive an upper bound of sample size (viz., distribution-free bound) that guarantees that the performance of the SAA policy be close (i.e., with arbitrarily small relative error) to the optimal policy under known demand distribution with high probability. This result is obtained by first deriving a separable and tight cost upper bound of the whole system that depends on (given) echelon base-stock levels and then showing that the cost difference between the SAA and optimal policies can be measured by the distance between the empirical and the underlying demand distribution functions. We also provide a lower bound of sample size that matches the upper bound (in the order of relative error). Furthermore, when the demand distribution is continuous and has an increasing failure rate (IFR), we derive a tighter sample size upper bound (viz., distribution-dependent bound). Both distribution-free and distribution-dependent bounds for the newsvendor problem, a special case of our series system, improve the previous results. In addition, we show that both bounds increase polynomially as the number of stages increases. The performance of SAA policy and the sample size bounds are illustrated numerically. Finally, we extend the results to finite-horizon series systems.
我们研究一个具有多个阶段的无限期串行系统的库存管理。每个阶段从其直接上游阶段订货，最上游阶段从外部供应商订货。随机需求在最下游阶段发生，且分布未知。每个阶段都会发生库存持有成本，而最下游阶段在库存短缺时还会发生需求拖欠成本。目标是使规划期内的预期总折扣成本最小化。我们应用样本平均近似（SAA）方法，利用从需求样本（基础需求分布）构建的经验分布函数来获得启发式策略（SAA 策略）。我们推导出样本规模的上界（即无分布界），该上界保证在已知需求分布的情况下，SAA 策略的性能（即相对误差任意小）以高概率接近最优策略。 这一结果首先通过推导依赖于（给定）梯级库存水平整个系统的可分离且紧致的成本上界获得，然后表明 SAA 策略与最优策略之间的成本差异可以通过经验需求分布函数与潜在需求分布函数之间的距离来衡量。我们还提供了一个与上界（在相对误差的阶数上）相匹配的样本量下界。此外，当需求分布是连续且具有递增失效率（IFR）时，我们推导出一个更紧致的样本量上界（即，与分布相关的界限）。对于我们的系列系统的一个特例——新闻商问题，我们提供了无分布和与分布相关的界限，这些界限改进了之前的结果。此外，我们表明，随着阶段数的增加，这两个界限都呈多项式增长。SAA 策略的性能和样本量界限通过数值方法进行了说明。最后，我们将结果扩展到有限时域系列系统。

A Preregistered Falsification Test of the Decision by Sampling Model and Rank-Order Effect

抽样模型和等级效应的决策预先注册的伪造检验
Mattias Forsgren, Lars Frimanson, Peter Juslin
Many social scientists have assumed that people’s preferences can be described by stable and coherent “utility” functions. This notion of stable utility functions has been challenged by cognitive psychologists who suggest that preferences are malleable and constructed in the moment, but neither camp has explained how the subjective valuations underpinning preferences arise. One influential attempt to do so is the Decision by Sampling (DbS) model, which suggests that a quantitative attribute’s (e.g., money sum’s) subjective value is its rank order in a momentarily activated memory sample. DbS thus implies that manipulating the recently experienced attribute distribution should change people’s subsequent valuations of that attribute: for example, from the typically assumed concave shape of the utility function to a convex shape. However, recent studies have pointed out methodological concerns in the evidence previously thought to support this prediction (and thus, DbS). In this preregistered study, we replicate the previous paradigm but address the methodological concerns to test if such a “rank-order” manipulation does change valuations. We derive qualitative predictions from DbS to verify that our conditions yield distinct predictions. We find strong evidence against the DbS’s prediction that a “rank-order” manipulation changes what options the participants select and how strongly they prefer the options. We also find extreme evidence in favor of a contextualization effect, implying that people value formally identical gambles differently depending on whether they cue a real-life setting or not. Although we encourage replication by independent laboratories, these results suggest that the DbS is falsified for this binary choice task.
许多社会科学家认为，人们的选择偏好可以用稳定且连贯的“效用”函数来描述。这一关于稳定效用函数的观点受到了认知心理学家的挑战，他们认为选择偏好是灵活且在当下构建的，但双方都没有解释支撑偏好的主观价值是如何产生的。一个有影响力的尝试是抽样决策（DbS）模型，该模型提出一个定量属性（例如金额）的主观价值是其在一个暂时激活的记忆样本中的等级顺序。因此，DbS 暗示操纵最近经历到的属性分布应该改变人们对该属性后续的价值评估：例如，从通常假设的效用函数的凹形转变为凸形。然而，最近的研究指出了先前被认为支持这一预测的证据中存在的方法论问题（因此，也指出了 DbS）。在这项预先注册的研究中，我们复制了之前的范式，但解决了方法论问题，以测试这种“等级顺序”操纵是否真的会改变价值评估。 我们从 DbS 中推导出定性预测，以验证我们的条件会产生不同的预测。我们发现强有力的证据反对 DbS 的预测，即“等级排序”操纵会改变参与者选择哪些选项以及他们如何偏好这些选项。我们还发现极端的证据支持情境化效应，这意味着人们根据是否提示现实生活中的情境，对形式上相同的赌博有不同的评价。尽管我们鼓励独立实验室进行重复实验，但这些结果表明 DbS 在这个二元选择任务中被证伪。

Machine Data: Market and Analytics

机器数据：市场和分析
Giacomo Calzolari, Anatole Cheysson, Riccardo Rovatti
Abstract 摘要
Machine data (MD), that is, data generated by machines, are increasingly gaining importance, potentially surpassing the value of the extensively discussed personal data. We present a theoretical analysis of the MD market, addressing challenges such as data fragmentation, ambiguous property rights, and the public-good nature of MD. We consider machine users producing data and data aggregators providing MD analytics services (e.g., with digital twins for real-time simulation and optimization). By analyzing machine learning algorithms, we identify critical properties for the value of MD analytics, Scale, Scope, and Synergy. We leverage these properties to explore market scenarios, including anonymous and secret contracting, competition among MD producers, and multiple competing aggregators. We identify significant inefficiencies and market failures, highlighting the need for nuanced policy interventions.
机器数据（MD），即由机器生成的数据，正日益变得重要，其潜在价值可能超过广泛讨论的个人数据。我们对 MD 市场进行了理论分析，探讨了数据碎片化、产权模糊以及 MD 的公共物品性质等挑战。我们考虑了产生数据的机器用户和数据聚合者提供 MD 分析服务（例如，使用数字孪生进行实时模拟和优化）。通过分析机器学习算法，我们确定了 MD 分析价值的关键属性：规模、范围和协同效应。我们利用这些属性来探索市场场景，包括匿名和保密合同、MD 生产者之间的竞争以及多个竞争性聚合者。我们识别出显著的低效和市场失灵，强调了需要细致的政策干预。

Sharing the Fame but Taking the Blame: When Declaring a Single Person Responsible Solves a Free Rider Problem

共享荣耀但承担责备：当认定单个人负责能解决搭便车问题
Xinyu Li, Wendelin Schnedler
Teams are formed because input from different people is needed. Providing incentives to team members, however, can be difficult. According to received wisdom, declaring all members responsible fails because real responsibility for team output “diffuses.” But why? Also, why and when does formally declaring one member “responsible” mean that this member can be attributed real responsibility? We offer a model that answers these questions. We identify when jointly declaring a team responsible results in reputation free riding. We show that declaring one person responsible can overcome this problem but only if all other team members are protected from being sanctioned.
团队之所以形成，是因为需要不同人的输入。然而，激励团队成员却很困难。根据普遍观点，宣布所有成员负责会失败，因为团队产出的实际责任“分散”。但这为什么？此外，为什么以及何时正式宣布一名成员“负责”，意味着这名成员可以被赋予实际责任？我们提供了一个模型来回答这些问题。我们确定了何时共同宣布团队负责会导致声誉搭便车。我们表明，宣布一个人负责可以克服这个问题，但前提是所有其他团队成员都受到保护，不会受到处罚。

To Ask or Not to Ask: The Effects of Broadly and Narrowly Adopted Peer-Recognition Systems on Help Seeking

该问还是不该问：广泛和狭义采用的同行认可系统对寻求帮助的影响
Joseph Burke, Ryan D. Sommerfeldt, Laura W. Wang
Many companies now use peer-recognition systems that allow employees to publicly recognize their peers for positive behaviors. Practitioners have touted the potential for these systems to increase helping among employees. However, the extent to which employees actually use these systems to recognize their peers varies across organizations; some are used broadly by many employees across all functional, specialty, geographic, and hierarchical subgroups of the organization, whereas others are only narrowly used by some, but not all, subgroups. Across three experiments, we examine how peer-recognition systems impact employees’ propensity to ask others for help (i.e., help seeking) based on whether the system is broadly used by all subgroups or only narrowly used by specific subgroups. We predict and find that a peer-recognition system broadly used by all subgroups strengthens employees’ perception of a help-seeking norm. This perception increases employees’ propensity to seek help directly through norm conformity and indirectly by reducing the perceived psychological costs of help seeking. We also predict and find that the effect of peer-recognition systems that are narrowly used by specific subgroups is moderated by whether employees belong to the subgroups using the system; whereas it increases help-seeking propensity for members of the subgroups using the system, it decreases help-seeking propensity for nonmembers relative to when there is no peer-recognition system. Our theory and results suggest that peer-recognition systems can increase help seeking, but these same systems could decrease help seeking for employees belonging to subgroups that do not use the system.
现在，许多公司使用同行认可系统，允许员工公开认可同事的积极行为。从业者称颂这些系统有可能增加员工间的互助行为。然而，员工实际使用这些系统来认可同事的程度因组织而异；有些系统被组织内所有职能部门、专业领域、地域和层级子群体的许多员工广泛使用，而另一些系统则仅被部分子群体而非全部子群体狭义使用。通过三个实验，我们考察同行认可系统如何影响员工寻求他人帮助的倾向（即寻求帮助），这取决于系统是否被所有子群体广泛使用，还是仅被特定子群体狭义使用。我们预测并发现，被所有子群体广泛使用的同行认可系统会增强员工对寻求帮助规范的认知。这种认知通过规范一致性直接增加员工寻求帮助的倾向，并通过减少寻求帮助的心理成本间接实现。 我们还预测并发现，由特定子群体狭义使用的同伴认可系统的影响会受到员工是否属于使用该系统的子群体的影响；对于使用该系统的子群体成员，它会增加寻求帮助的倾向，而对于非成员，相对于没有同伴认可系统的情况，它会减少寻求帮助的倾向。我们的理论和结果表明，同伴认可系统可以增加寻求帮助，但这些相同的系统可能会减少不属于使用该系统的子群体的员工的寻求帮助倾向。

The Value of Specific Knowledge: Evidence from Disruptions to the Patient–Physician Relationship

特定知识的价值：来自医患关系中断的证据
Stephen D. Schwab
When a member of a work team leaves, some knowledge is lost to the organization. Exploiting quasi-random turnover among military physicians because of deployments, I estimate the effects of turnover on patients and other providers in the same care team. I find that a discontinuity in primary care leads to a 3%–5% increase in costs driven primarily by an increase in the use and intensity of specialty care with no observable benefit to the patient as measured by potential reductions in hospitalization rates and emergency department usage. This indicates that the full cost of turnover includes a reduction in access to knowledge among remaining members of the team.
当工作团队中的一名成员离职时，组织会损失一部分知识。利用军事医生因部署而产生的准随机离职情况，我估算了离职对同一护理团队中的患者和其他医疗服务提供者的影响。我发现，初级护理的间断会导致成本增加 3%-5%，主要原因是专科护理的使用和强度增加，而患者并未因此获得可观察到的益处，表现为住院率和急诊科使用率的潜在降低。这表明离职的完全成本包括团队其余成员知识获取的减少。

Play it Again, Sam? Reference-Point Formation and Product Differentiation in the Music Industry

再来一次，山姆？音乐产业中的参考点形成与产品差异化
Abhishek Deshmane, Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz
Newly released music is never assessed in isolation by audiences, who tend to compare objective (sonic attributes) and subjective (genre affiliations) elements of its identity with the previous musical catalog of the corresponding artist, his or her musically proximal peers, and the most successful releases in the market. In this paper, we provide a general framework that disentangles the objective and subjective identities of new musical releases and evaluates how differentiation affects audience reactions. We posit that radio stations, who seek commercial success, have different preferences toward differentiation in comparison with critics, who grant cultural legitimacy in the industry. Combining play numbers, reviews, and music description data from different sources, we find that radio stations prefer consistency in the musical style of successive releases by the focal artist and especially favor albums that sound similar to chart toppers. Critics, however, exhibit opposite preferences, preferring novelty compared with past works of the artist, while remaining uninfluenced by contemporaneous music dynamics. Our moderation checks reveal that decisions around genre affiliations and scheduling of new releases aid music producers to effectively manage audience expectations. This suggests that data-driven decision support systems can help artists to strategically release new products that cater to heterogeneous tastes.
新发布的音乐作品永远不会被观众孤立地评估，他们倾向于将作品的客观（声音属性）和主观（流派归属）元素与相应艺术家的先前音乐目录、其音乐上邻近的同行以及市场上最成功的发行作品进行比较。在本文中，我们提供了一个将新音乐作品的客观身份和主观身份分离的通用框架，并评估了差异化如何影响观众反应。我们认为，寻求商业成功的广播电台与授予行业文化合法性的评论家相比，对差异化有不同的偏好。结合来自不同来源的播放次数、评论和音乐描述数据，我们发现广播电台更倾向于焦点艺术家的连续发行作品的音乐风格保持一致性，并且尤其偏爱听起来与排行榜冠军相似的音乐专辑。然而，评论家表现出相反的偏好，他们更喜欢与艺术家过去作品相比的新颖性，同时不受同时期音乐动态的影响。 我们的审核检查表明，关于流派归属和新作发布排期的决策有助于音乐制作人有效管理观众预期。这表明数据驱动

Revenue Sharing at Music Streaming Platforms

音乐流媒体平台的收益分成
Gustavo Bergantiños, Juan D. Moreno-Ternero
We study the problem of sharing the revenues raised from subscriptions to music streaming platforms among content providers. We provide direct, axiomatic, and game-theoretical foundations for two focal (and somewhat polar) methods widely used in practice: pro rata and user centric. The former rewards artists proportionally to their number of total streams. With the latter, each user’s subscription fee is proportionally divided among the artists streamed by that user. We also provide foundations for two families of methods addressing the rising concern in the music industry to explore new streaming models that better align the interests of artists, fans, and streaming services. One of the families offers a natural compromise between the pro rata and user-centric methods. The other family generalizes the user-centric method while capturing various formalizations of incentives for artists and users.
我们研究了如何在音乐流媒体平台中，将订阅收入在内容提供者之间进行分配的问题。我们为两种在实践中广泛使用（且相对对立）的方法提供了直接、公理化和博弈论基础：按比例分配和以用户为中心。前者根据艺术家的总播放量按比例奖励他们。后者则将每个用户的订阅费按比例分配给该用户播放的艺术家。我们还为两类方法提供了基础，以应对音乐行业日益关注的问题——探索新的流媒体模式，以更好地协调艺术家、粉丝和流媒体服务之间的利益。其中一类方法在按比例分配和以用户为中心的方法之间提供了一个自然的折中方案。另一类方法则推广了以用户为中心的方法，同时涵盖了艺术家和用户激励的各种形式化表达。

Pricing Durable Add-Ons: Selling vs. Leasing

定价耐用品附加服务：销售与租赁
Peiwen Yu(重庆大学), Haiyang He, Lei Lei
Many firms offer products that consist of a durable base good (e.g., a vehicle) and a durable add-on (e.g., autopilot software). Some lease the add-on, whereas others sell it through intertemporal price discrimination or bundled pricing. Motivated by these practices, we examine whether a monopolistic firm should lease or sell the add-on when offering both durables. The literature suggests that leasing is preferable for a single durable good as it avoids the time inconsistency problem associated with selling. However, because leasing lacks an intertemporal link, it is less efficient than selling in balancing surplus extraction across consumers, leading to what we call the intraperiod imbalance problem. When the firm sells the base good, this can resolve the time inconsistency of add-on selling but perpetuate the intraperiod imbalance of add-on leasing. Thus, selling the add-on can be more profitable than leasing it. When the firm can choose between selling or leasing the base good, selling both the base good and the add-on can be more profitable than leasing both.
许多公司提供由耐用品基础商品（例如车辆）和耐用品附加品（例如自动驾驶软件）组成的产品。有些租赁附加品，而另一些则通过跨期价格歧视或捆绑定价销售附加品。受这些做法的启发，我们考察在提供耐用品时，垄断公司是否应该租赁或销售附加品。文献表明，对于单一耐用品，租赁更可取，因为它避免了与销售相关的时序不一致问题。然而，由于租赁缺乏跨期联系，它在平衡消费者之间的剩余提取方面不如销售高效，导致我们称之为的期内不平衡问题。当公司销售基础商品时，这可以解决附加品销售的时序不一致问题，但会持续附加品租赁的期内不平衡问题。因此，销售附加品可能比租赁附加品更有利可图。当公司可以在销售或租赁基础商品之间选择时，销售基础商品和附加品可能比租赁两者更有利可图。

Short of Capital: Stock Market Implications of Short Sellers’ Losses

资金短缺：卖空者损失对股市的影响
Antonio Gargano, Juan Sotes-Paladino, Patrick Verwijmeren
We provide evidence that losses constrain short sellers but not the transmission of information to prices. Using unique data on U.S. equity lending, we document a negative impact of the mark-to-market losses of a stock’s short sellers, but no impact of their gains, on the future shorting of the stock. Consistent with funding and institutional constraints limiting short selling, we further show that the effect is highly asymmetric across different loss levels and stronger among stocks facing higher margin requirements. However, loss-making short selling has no impact on price efficiency or predictive power for returns, suggesting that these constraints affect mostly uninformed shorting activity.
我们提供了证据，证明亏损限制了卖空者，但并未影响信息向价格的传递。利用美国股票借贷的独特数据，我们记录了卖空者对某股票的市价盈亏对股票未来卖空的影响为负，而其盈利则无影响。与融资和制度限制卖空的情况一致，我们进一步表明，这种影响在不同亏损水平上高度不对称，且在面临更高保证金要求的股票中更为显著。然而，亏损的卖空行为对价格效率或回报预测能力没有影响，这表明这些限制主要影响非信息驱动的卖空活动。

Consumer Privacy in Online Retail Supply Chains

在线零售供应链中的消费者隐私
Fasheng Xu, Xiaoyu Wang, Fuqiang Zhang
We study short-term and medium-term changes in bank risk-taking as a result of supervision and the associated real effects. For identification, we exploit the European Central Bank’s asset-quality-review (AQR) in conjunction with security and credit registers. After the AQR announcement, reviewed banks reduce riskier securities and credit supply, with the greatest effect on riskiest securities. We find negative spillovers on asset prices and firm-level credit availability. Moreover, nonbanks with higher exposure to reviewed banks acquire the shed risk. After the AQR compliance, reviewed banks reload riskier securities but not riskier credit, resulting in negative medium-term firm-level real effects. These effects are especially strong for firms with high ex ante credit risk. Among these nonsafe firms, even those with high ex ante productivity, experience negative real effects. Our findings suggest that banks’ liquid assets help them to mask risk from supervisors and risk adjustments banks make in response to supervision have persistent corporate real effects.
我们研究了银行在监管及其相关实际影响下短期和中期风险承担的变化。为进行识别，我们利用了欧洲中央银行的资产质量审查（AQR）以及证券和信贷登记册。在 AQR 公告后，被审查的银行减少了风险较高的证券和信贷供应，对风险最高的证券影响最大。我们发现资产价格和企业层面的信贷可获得性出现了负面影响。此外，对被审查银行敞口较高的非银行机构承接了这些剥离的风险。在 AQR 合规后，被审查的银行重新购入风险较高的证券，但并未增加风险较高的信贷，导致中期企业层面的实际影响为负。这些影响对事前信用风险较高的企业尤为显著。在这些非安全企业中，即使事前生产率较高的企业也经历了负面影响。我们的研究表明，银行的流动资产帮助它们掩盖了监管风险，而银行为应对监管所做出的风险调整具有持续的企业实际影响。

#＃＃　Stressed Banks? Evidence from the Largest-Ever Supervisory Review
压力下的银行？来自史上最大监管审查的证据
Puriya Abbassi, Rajkamal Iyer, José-Luis Peydró, Paul E. Soto

Gender Differences in High-Stakes Performance and College Admission Policies

高风险表现与大学录取政策中的性别差异
Andreu Arenas, Caterina Calsamiglia
The Gale-Shapley algorithm is one of the most popular college allocation mechanisms around the world. A crucial policy question in its setting is designing admission priorities for students, understanding how they disadvantage certain demographic groups, and whether these differences relate to differences in college performance potential. Studying a policy change in Spain, we find a negative effect of increasing the weight of standardized high-stakes exams on female college admission grades, driven by students expected to be at the top. The impact on admission grades does not affect enrollment, but the percentage of female students in the most selective degrees declines, along with their career prospects. Using data on the college performance of prereform cohorts, we find that female students most likely to lose from the reform tend to do better in college than male students expected to benefit from the reform. The results show that rewarding high-stakes performance in selection processes may come along with gender differences unrelated to the determinants of subsequent performance.
盖尔-夏普利算法是全世界最受欢迎的高校分配机制之一。在其应用中，一个关键的政策问题是设计学生的录取优先级，理解这种机制如何对某些群体产生不利影响，以及这些差异是否与高校表现潜力的差异相关。通过研究西班牙的一项政策变化，我们发现增加标准化高风险考试权重对女性高校录取成绩产生负面影响，这主要影响预期排名靠前的学生。这种影响不会改变录取率，但会导致顶尖专业中女性学生的比例下降，进而影响她们的职业前景。利用改革前高校表现数据，我们发现最可能因改革受损的女性学生，在高校中的表现往往优于预期从改革中受益的男性学生。研究结果表明，在选拔过程中奖励高风险表现，可能会伴随着与后续表现决定因素无关的性别差异。

Market Ambiguity Attitude Restores the Risk-Return Trade-Off

市场模糊态度恢复风险-收益权衡
Soroush Ghazi, Mark Schneider, Jack Strauss
A positive relation between the conditional mean and conditional volatility of aggregate stock returns, although viewed as a fundamental law of finance, has been challenging to find empirically. We consider a representative agent asset pricing model with Knightian uncertainty and demonstrate that this risk-return trade-off depends on the agent’s ambiguity attitude (reflecting the agent’s degree of optimism or pessimism). The model predicts that the conditional equity premium is increasing in market volatility, but its slope flattens as market optimism rises. We develop a methodology to extract the representative agent’s ambiguity attitude from our asset pricing model. Results validate our model predictions. We document the significant in-sample and out-of-sample explanatory power of ambiguity attitude in explaining the risk-return trade-off. In our sample, market volatility is not significant in forecasting returns. However, including the market ambiguity attitude leads to a significant positive relationship between volatility and future returns. Hence, our model and results identify market ambiguity attitude as a missing state variable that can explain why the literature has found it difficult to empirically validate the risk-return trade-off.
条件均值与条件波动率之间的正相关关系，尽管被视为金融学的基本法则，但在实证中却难以找到。我们考虑了一个具有奈特不确定性（Knightian uncertainty）的代表者资产定价模型，并证明这种风险-收益权衡取决于代表者的模糊态度（反映其乐观或悲观的程度）。该模型预测，条件股权溢价随着市场波动率的增加而上升，但其斜率随着市场乐观情绪的上升而变平。我们开发了一种从资产定价模型中提取代表者模糊态度的方法。结果验证了我们的模型预测。我们记录了模糊态度在解释风险-收益权衡方面的显著样本内和样本外解释力。在我们的样本中，市场波动率对收益的预测并不显著。然而，包括市场模糊态度会导致波动率与未来收益之间出现显著的正相关关系。 因此，我们的模型和结果将市场模糊态度识别为可以解释为什么文献难以在实证中验证风险-收益权衡的缺失状态变量。

Limits of Disclosure Regulation in the Municipal Bond Market

市政债券市场信息披露监管的局限性
Ivan T. Ivanov, Tom Zimmermann, Nathan W. Heinrich
A positive relation between the conditional mean and conditional volatility of aggregate stock returns, although viewed as a fundamental law of finance, has been challenging to find empirically. We consider a representative agent asset pricing model with Knightian uncertainty and demonstrate that this risk-return trade-off depends on the agent’s ambiguity attitude (reflecting the agent’s degree of optimism or pessimism). The model predicts that the conditional equity premium is increasing in market volatility, but its slope flattens as market optimism rises. We develop a methodology to extract the representative agent’s ambiguity attitude from our asset pricing model. Results validate our model predictions. We document the significant in-sample and out-of-sample explanatory power of ambiguity attitude in explaining the risk-return trade-off. In our sample, market volatility is not significant in forecasting returns. However, including the market ambiguity attitude leads to a significant positive relationship between volatility and future returns. Hence, our model and results identify market ambiguity attitude as a missing state variable that can explain why the literature has found it difficult to empirically validate the risk-return trade-off.
条件均值与条件波动率之间的正相关关系，尽管被视为金融学的基本法则，但在实证中却难以找到。我们考虑了一个具有奈特不确定性（Knightian uncertainty）的代表者资产定价模型，并证明这种风险-收益权衡取决于代表者的模糊态度（反映其乐观或悲观的程度）。该模型预测，条件股权溢价随着市场波动率的增加而上升，但其斜率随着市场乐观情绪的上升而变平。我们开发了一种从资产定价模型中提取代表者模糊态度的方法。结果验证了我们的模型预测。我们记录了模糊态度在解释风险-收益权衡方面的显著样本内和样本外解释力。在我们的样本中，市场波动率对收益的预测并不显著。然而，包括市场模糊态度会导致波动率与未来收益之间出现显著的正相关关系。 因此，我们的模型和结果将市场模糊态度识别为可以解释为什么文献难以在实证中验证风险-收益权衡的缺失状态变量。

Limits of Disclosure Regulation in the Municipal Bond Market

市政债券市场信息披露监管的局限性
Ivan T. Ivanov, Tom Zimmermann, Nathan W. Heinrich
We examine the effectiveness of recent federal disclosure regulation aiming to improve transparency in the $4 trillion municipal bond market. Governments fail to disclose material private placements 50%–60% of the time and, conditional on disclosure, filings often omit contract details essential for bond pricing. Noncompliant issuers are significantly riskier than compliers, with disclosure decreasing in the potential of privately placed debt to adversely affect bondholders. We show that disclosure reveals positive news and is especially informative to investors in low-rated bonds or during market crises. Overall, privately placed debt continues to pose significant risks to municipal bond investors.
我们考察了近期联邦信息披露法规在改善 4 万亿美元市政债券市场透明度方面的有效性。政府有 50%–60%的时间未能披露重大私募发行，而在披露的情况下，申报文件常常省略对债券定价至关重要的合同细节。不合规发行人比合规发行人风险显著更高，信息披露降低了私募发行债务对债券持有人产生不利影响的潜在性。我们表明，信息披露揭示了利好消息，尤其对低评级债券投资者或在市场危机期间具有特别的信息价值。总体而言，私募发行债务继续对市政债券投资者构成重大风险。

Secondary Market Monetization and Willingness to Share Personal Data

二级市场变现与分享个人数据的意愿
Joy Wu
People are often unaware that their personal data can serve as valuable inputs for economic activities in secondary data markets. However, whether secondary monetization of personal data determines privacy preferences remains unclear. I examine whether privacy decisions are motivated by the data recipient’s ability to benefit from trading individuals’ data with a third party. A large online laboratory experiment involving personally identifiable psychometric data is implemented with real data-sharing consequences and monetary benefits. I find that individuals decrease their willingness to share data—both in terms of their likelihood of participating in the data market and the prices demanded for such participation—when the recipient’s ability to monetize the data through secondary trade is salient. Strategic responses to updated beliefs about the recipient’s gain from the trade are ruled out via the chosen price elicitation. I find that increased data exposure (to more recipients) does not explain the significant revealed disutility from secondary monetization. These findings are also robust to controlling for the risk exposure differences between data recipients and third parties.
人们往往没有意识到他们的个人数据可以作为有价值的投入，在二级数据市场中服务于经济活动。然而，个人数据的二级货币化是否决定了隐私偏好仍不明确。我考察了隐私决策是否受到数据接收者从与第三方交易个人数据中获益的能力的驱动。我实施了一个涉及个人可识别的心理测量数据的在线大型实验室实验，该实验具有真实的数据共享后果和货币收益。我发现，当接收者通过二级交易货币化数据的能力凸显时，个人会降低他们分享数据的意愿——无论是在参与数据市场的可能性方面，还是在要求的价格方面。通过选择的定价诱导方法排除了对交易中接收者收益更新信念的战略反应。我发现，增加数据曝光（给更多接收者）并不能解释从二级货币化中显著揭示的效用降低。这些发现在控制数据接收者和第三方之间风险暴露差异的情况下也依然稳健。

Managing Channel Profits with Positive Demand Externalities

管理具有正向需求外部性的渠道利润
Long Gao, Dawei Jian, Mehmet Gumus, Birendra K. Mishra
Demand externalities arise when past sales stimulate future demand. They pervade many consumer markets. To penetrate such markets, how should manufacturers contract with retailers? We formulate the problem as a dynamic game, wherein the retailer can privately observe and control evolving market conditions, and consumers can act either myopically or strategically. Our contribution is threefold. (i) We characterize the optimal contract: It resolves a dynamic tradeoff between exploiting demand externalities, screening new information, and optimizing channel efficiency; moreover, it has a simple implementation of quantity discount. (ii) We characterize the dual role of demand externalities. Although demand externalities can improve channel surplus by expanding market size, they can also exacerbate information friction by enhancing the retailer’s ability to manipulate the market. Ignoring the dark side of the agency cost, previous studies may have overestimated the benefit of demand externalities. (iii) We provide new practical guidance. We show private information per se need not hurt channel efficiency: The manufacturer can use recursive advance selling to extract new information for free. Our results also shed light on when and why manufacturers should moderate demand externalities and prefer long-term contracts. By highlighting the dual role of demand externalities in long-run channel performance, this study sharpens our understanding of channel theory and practice.
当过去的销售刺激未来的需求时，就会产生需求外部性。它们普遍存在于许多消费市场。为了进入这些市场，制造商应如何与零售商签订合同？我们将此问题建模为一个动态博弈，其中零售商可以私下观察和控制不断变化的市场条件，而消费者可以采取短视或策略性行为。我们的贡献有三方面。(i) 我们刻画了最优合同：它解决了一个动态权衡，即在利用需求外部性、筛选新信息和优化渠道效率之间；此外，它具有数量折扣的简单实施方式。(ii) 我们刻画了需求外部性的双重作用。尽管需求外部性可以通过扩大市场规模来提高渠道剩余，但它们也可能通过增强零售商操纵市场的能力而加剧信息摩擦。忽略代理成本的黑暗面，以往的研究可能高估了需求外部性的好处。(iii) 我们提供了新的实践指导。 我们表明，私有信息本身并不一定会损害渠道效率：制造商可以通过递归预售免费获取新信息。我们的研究结果还揭示了制造商何时以及为何应调节需求外部性并倾向于长期合同。通过强调需求外部性在长期渠道绩效中的双重作用，本研究深化了我们对渠道理论和实践的理解。

Retention or Acquisition? Behavior-Based Quality Disclosure

保留还是获取？基于行为的质量披露
Jianqiang Zhang（江南大学）, Krista J. Li
Firms frequently extend their brand by introducing products in new categories and offering free samples or demonstrations for customers to learn about the quality of the new products before purchasing. When introducing new products based on customers’ purchase behavior in the former category, firms face two customer segments: their own customers and the competitor’s customers. Firms can practice behavior-based pricing (BBP) by charging different prices in the two segments. Moreover, firms can practice behavior-based quality disclosure (BBD) by disclosing quality information to the two customer segments differently. In this paper, we examine how firms practice BBD in addition to BBP. We find that in contrast to the acquisition-focused BBP, firms perform retention-focused BBD by increasing quality disclosure to their own customers and decreasing it to the competitor’s customers. Unlike BBP, which decreases second-period profit and increases first-period profit, BBD increases second-period profit but decreases first-period profit when the disclosure cost is low. We also show that when firms endogenously choose BBD, the equilibrium is a prisoner’s dilemma when the disclosure cost is low and a win-win outcome when the disclosure cost is high.
企业经常通过推出新类别的产品来扩展品牌，并为顾客提供免费样品或演示，让顾客在购买前了解新产品的质量。当根据顾客在前一类别的购买行为推出新产品时，企业面临两个顾客群体：自己的顾客和竞争对手的顾客。企业可以通过在这两个群体中收取不同价格来实行基于行为的定价（BBP）。此外，企业还可以通过以不同的方式向这两个顾客群体披露质量信息来实行基于行为的质量披露（BBD）。在本文中，我们考察了企业如何在实行 BBP 的同时实行 BBD。我们发现，与以获取为中心的 BBP 不同，企业通过增加对自身顾客的质量披露、减少对竞争对手顾客的质量披露来实行以保留为中心的 BBD。与 BBP 会降低第二期利润、增加第一期利润不同，当披露成本较低时，BBD 会增加第二期利润但会降低第一期利润。 我们也表明，当企业内生地选择 BBD 时，如果披露成本较低，均衡是囚徒困境；如果披露成本较高，均衡是双赢结果。

Choose Your Battles Wisely: The Consequences of Protesting Government Procurement Contracts

明智选择战斗：抗议政府采购合同的影响
Mehmet I. Canayaz, Jess Cornaggia, Kimberly Cornaggia
We examine the relationship between a firm’s successful protest of a government agency’s conduct or terms of a procurement contract and the amount of business the firm conducts with the government going forward. We find firms receive fewer and less valuable government contracts, face more contract cancellations, and experience significant reductions in sales growth and employee growth. Despite widespread belief, successful bid protesters do not delay government procurement because of lengthy dispute resolutions. Overall, we provide the first analysis of corporate interactions with the United States government bid protest system.
我们考察了企业成功抗议政府机构采购合同行为或条款与该企业未来与政府开展业务规模之间的关系。我们发现，企业获得的政府合同数量更少、价值更低，面临更多合同取消，销售增长和员工增长也显著减少。尽管普遍认为，成功投标抗议者会因漫长的争议解决而延迟政府采购。总体而言，我们提供了首个关于企业与美国政府投标抗议制度互动的分析。

Auditing with a Chance of Whistleblowing

带有举报风险的审计
Lin Nan, Chao Tang, Minlei Ye
This paper investigates the impact of promoting whistleblowing on audit quality and the efficiency of detecting misstatements. On the one hand, whistleblowing alerts the enforcer to the possibility of a misstatement and intensifies the regulatory effort, thereby incentivizing the auditor to improve audit quality. On the other hand, promoting whistleblowing reduces the enforcer’s investigative effort when there is no whistleblowing allegation, which in turn dampens the auditor’s incentive to enhance audit quality. We demonstrate that, under certain conditions, encouraging more whistleblowing can impair audit quality and reduce detection efficiency. We also examine the socially optimal whistleblowing program, and our analysis implies that the optimal whistleblowing intensity is increasing in investment cost and the quality of the whistleblower’s information.
本文研究了促进举报对审计质量和发现错报效率的影响。一方面，举报使监管者意识到错报的可能性，加大了监管力度，从而激励审计师提高审计质量。另一方面，促进举报在无举报指控时减少了监管者的调查努力，进而削弱了审计师提升审计质量的动力。我们证明，在特定条件下，鼓励更多举报会损害审计质量并降低发现效率。我们还考察了社会最优的举报计划，分析表明，最优举报强度随投资成本和举报者信息质量增加而提高。

The Effects of MiFID II on Voluntary Disclosure

《MiFID II 对自愿披露的影响》
Chongho Kim, Jihwon Park, Edward Sul
We examine the effect of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) II’s controversial unbundling provision on corporate voluntary disclosure. Although prior research has largely focused on changes in sell-side research post-MiFID II, changes in voluntary disclosure and their effects on the information environment are less known. We find that European Union (EU) firms significantly increased the propensity and frequency of management earnings guidance issuance after MiFID II enactment. This effect is more pronounced among firms experiencing a decline in the quantity of sell-side research or a reduction in the consumption and dissemination of analyst reports and is more muted among firms witnessing improvements in research quality. Furthermore, we find that post-MiFID earnings guidance by EU firms becomes more thorough and elicits stronger market reactions. Moreover, we demonstrate that the increased guidance effectively alleviates the negative liquidity effects of MiFID II. Collectively, we contribute to the ongoing debate on the efficacy of MiFID II’s unbundling provision by providing evidence that voluntary disclosure plays a key role in mitigating the unintended net negative consequences on the information environment following the regulation.
我们考察了《金融市场工具指令》（MiFID）II 中备受争议的拆分条款对企业自愿披露的影响。尽管以往研究主要关注 MiFID II 实施后卖方研究的变革，但自愿披露的变化及其对信息环境的影响尚不为人知。我们发现，欧盟（EU）公司在 MiFID II 实施后显著提高了管理层盈利预测的发行倾向和频率。这种影响在经历卖方研究数量下降或分析师报告的获取和传播减少的公司中更为明显，而在研究质量得到改善的公司中则较为温和。此外，我们发现欧盟公司实施 MiFID 后的盈利预测变得更加全面，并引发了更强的市场反应。此外，我们证明这种增加的指导有效地缓解了 MiFID II 带来的负面流动性效应。 我们共同为关于 MiFID II 解绑条款有效性的持续辩论做出了贡献，通过提供证据证明自愿披露在缓解该法规实施后对信息环境产生的非预期净负面影响方面发挥着关键作用。

Combining Ad Targeting Techniques: Evidence from a Field Experiment in the Auto Industry

结合广告定位技术：汽车行业实地实验的证据
Albert Valenti, Chadwick J. Miller, Catherine E. Tucker
Retargeted advertising that tries to entice potential customers back to a website is widely used by advertisers and has often replaced more traditional forms of targeting, such as contextual targeting that tries to match ads to website content. However, existing research has not investigated the extent to which these different targeting techniques compete with or complement each other. To investigate this, we conduct a large-scale field experiment with an automobile manufacturer to investigate how retargeting meshes with more traditional techniques of contextual targeting online and in turn how that should affect ad content. We investigate this using three different measures of online advertising effectiveness: website visits, engagement, and soft conversions. We find that combining contextual targeting and retargeting is more effective for all three measures. However, to unleash this effectiveness, marketers have to pay attention to the ad content in their retargeted ads. We find that when combining retargeted advertising with contextual targeting, ads that prompt users to customize an offering are the most effective. Last, we provide empirical evidence for understanding the underlying mechanism associated with our findings and replicate those findings with a laboratory experiment.
试图吸引潜在客户返回网站的再营销广告被广告商广泛使用，并且经常取代更传统的定位形式，例如试图将广告与网站内容相匹配的上下文定位。然而，现有研究尚未调查这些不同定位技术在多大程度上相互竞争或相互补充。为了研究这一点，我们与一家汽车制造商进行了一项大规模实地实验，以调查再营销如何与在线更传统的上下文定位技术相结合，以及这反过来又应如何影响广告内容。我们使用三种不同的在线广告效果衡量指标来研究这一点：网站访问量、参与度和软转化。我们发现，结合上下文定位和再营销对三种衡量指标都更有效。然而，为了发挥这种效果，营销人员必须关注其再营销广告中的广告内容。我们发现，当将再营销广告与上下文定位相结合时，提示用户定制产品或服务的广告最为有效。 最后，我们提供了实证证据来理解与我们发现相关的潜在机制，并通过实验室实验复制这些发现。

Trading Volume Manipulation and Competition Among Centralized Crypto Exchanges

交易量操纵与中心化加密货币交易所的竞争
Dan Amiram, Evgeny Lyandres, Daniel Rabetti
How competition affects manipulation by firms of information about important attributes of their products and how such information manipulation impacts firms’ short-term and long-term performance are open empirical questions. We use a setting that is especially suitable for answering these questions—centralized crypto exchanges, on which information manipulation takes the form of inflated trading volume. We find that static and dynamic competition measures are positively associated with volume inflation, indicating that competition may lead to increased information manipulation. Exchanges that manipulate volume obtain short-run benefits but are punished in the long run, consistent with the trade-off between short-lived increases in rents and future losses because of damaged reputation.
竞争如何影响企业对其产品重要属性信息的操纵，以及这种信息操纵如何影响企业的短期和长期绩效，是开放的经验性问题。我们使用了一个特别适合回答这些问题的环境——集中式加密货币交易所，其中信息操纵表现为交易量的虚增。我们发现，静态和动态竞争指标与交易量虚增呈正相关，表明竞争可能导致信息操纵增加。操纵交易量的交易所获得短期利益，但长期会受到惩罚，这与短期租金增加和因声誉受损导致未来损失之间的权衡相符。

Do Institutional Investors Stabilize Equity Markets in Crisis Periods? Evidence from COVID-19

机构投资者在危机时期是否稳定了股票市场？来自 COVID-19 的证据
Simon Glossner, Pedro Matos, Stefano Ramelli, Alexander F. Wagner
How competition affects manipulation by firms of information about important attributes of their products and how such information manipulation impacts firms’ short-term and long-term performance are open empirical questions. We use a setting that is especially suitable for answering these questions—centralized crypto exchanges, on which information manipulation takes the form of inflated trading volume. We find that static and dynamic competition measures are positively associated with volume inflation, indicating that competition may lead to increased information manipulation. Exchanges that manipulate volume obtain short-run benefits but are punished in the long run, consistent with the trade-off between short-lived increases in rents and future losses because of damaged reputation.
竞争如何影响企业对其产品重要属性信息的操纵，以及这种信息操纵如何影响企业的短期和长期绩效，是开放的经验性问题。我们使用了一个特别适合回答这些问题的环境——集中式加密货币交易所，其中信息操纵表现为交易量的虚增。我们发现，静态和动态竞争指标与交易量虚增呈正相关，表明竞争可能导致信息操纵增加。操纵交易量的交易所获得短期利益，但长期会受到惩罚，这与短期租金增加和因声誉受损导致未来损失之间的权衡相符。

Speed Matters: Limited Attention and Supply Chain Information Diffusion

速度要紧：有限注意力与供应链信息扩散
Ling Cen, Michael Hertzel, Christoph Schiller
We develop a measure of the speed of firm-level information diffusion, study how it is affected by limited attention, and examine its effect on real corporate decisions. Using local flu epidemics as exogenous attention shocks, we show that inattention from dual-covering analysts and cross-holding institutions reduces the speed of information diffusion from customer to supplier stock prices. We find that the speed of information diffusion along the supply chain affects the price feedback effect for corporate investment decisions and facilitates coordination between customers and suppliers. Our findings demonstrate that coattention from key market participants affects information efficiency and generates real economic outcomes.
我们开发了一个衡量企业层面信息传播速度的指标，研究了其如何受到注意力限制的影响，并考察了其对实际企业决策的影响。通过将地方性流感爆发作为外生的注意力冲击，我们发现双重覆盖分析师和交叉持股机构的忽视会降低从客户到供应商股价的信息传播速度。我们发现供应链上的信息传播速度会影响企业投资决策的价格反馈效应，并促进客户与供应商之间的协调。我们的研究结果表明，主要市场参与者的共同注意力会影响信息效率，并产生实际的经济结果。

Consumption Commitments and Housing Dynamics

消费承诺与住房动态
Preetesh Kantak
Using a measure of local long-run growth prospects, I uncover a novel link between economic fundamentals and house prices. Whereas excess housing returns are positively associated with economic growth prospects, housing valuations are negatively associated with shocks to growth prospects. I document an explanation in metro-area consumption: housing consumption is asymmetrically exposed to economic prospects in that it expands more quickly when prospects are strong than it contracts when prospects are poor. I explain these findings through the lens of an asset pricing model that focuses on a trade-off between nonseparable committed housing and nonhousing consumption.
通过使用一个衡量地方长期增长前景的指标，我揭示了一个经济基本面与房价之间的新联系。过剩的住房回报率与经济增长前景呈正相关，而住房估值则与增长前景的冲击呈负相关。我在都市区消费中记录了一种解释：住房消费对经济前景的暴露是非对称的，即当前景强劲时，它扩张得更快，而在前景疲软时，它收缩得更慢。我通过一个关注不可分割的承诺住房与非住房消费之间权衡的资产定价模型来解释这些发现。

Antisocial Responses to the “Coal to Gas” Regulation: An Unintended Consequence of a Residential Energy Policy

对“煤改气”法规的反社会反应：一项住宅能源政策的不当后果
Jing Cao（清华大学）, Tracy Xiao Liu, Rong Ma, Ang Sun
Policies geared toward environmental and economic improvement could unexpectedly lead to negative consequences in other dimensions. Such cases raise a red flag to economists and policymakers who aim to deliver comprehensive and sensible policy evaluations. This article investigates antisocial behaviors in response to the Clean Winter Heating Policy (CWHP), which seeks to improve outdoor air quality. Our results show that participating villagers are more likely to violate laws to burn agricultural waste and exhibit lower prosociality in incentivized dictator games and public goods games. We further explore treatment heterogeneities and find that two channels are likely to play a part. First, the CWHP was perceived as a negative income shock. Therefore, the villagers would want to reduce their expenditure on straw disposal and behave less generously in the incentivized games. Second, the CWHP could trigger discontent and directly affect social preference. Additional evidence suggests that the antisocial (less prosocial) responses could have been avoided by granting larger upfront subsidies.
面向环境和经济改善的政策可能会在其他维度上带来意想不到的负面后果。这类情况提醒经济学家和政策制定者进行全面且明智的政策评估。本文研究了居民对清洁冬季供暖政策（CWHP）的逆社会行为，该政策旨在改善室外空气质量。我们的结果显示，参与村民更有可能违法焚烧农业废弃物，并在激励性独裁者博弈和公共物品博弈中表现出较低的社会性。我们进一步探讨了处理异质性，发现两个渠道可能起作用。首先，CWHP 被视为负收入冲击。因此，村民会想减少秸秆处理的支出，并在激励性博弈中表现得不够慷慨。其次，CWHP 可能引发不满情绪，并直接影响社会偏好。额外证据表明，通过提供更大的前期补贴，这些逆社会（较低社会性）的回应本可以避免。

A Structural Model of a Firm’s Operating Cash Flow with Applications

公司经营现金流的结构模型及其应用
Kashish Arora, Vishal Gaur
Effective management of a firm’s operating cash flow is essential for supporting growth, servicing debt, and maintaining overall financial health. Mismanagement of cash flows can result in severe liquidity challenges and even business failure. However, managing operating cash flow is complex because of its intricate, endogenous relationships with operational variables, like sales, operating costs, inventory, payables, and the impact of exogenous macroeconomic factors on a firm. In this paper, we present a structural model of operating cash flow that untangles this endogeneity, allows us to estimate causal relationships among these variables, and provides a valuable tool for evaluating cash flow management policies. Applying our model to quarterly financial data from S&P’s Compustat database spanning from 1990 to 2020 along with macroeconomic indicators, we provide empirical evidence of the endogenous nature of cash flow with other operational variables. We then showcase the practical value of our model by (i) identifying the characteristics of structural shocks and the new equilibria they induce within the system; (ii) offering a tool for evaluating alternative managerial actions or policy decisions to counteract these shocks; (iii) predicting the impacts of macroeconomic events, such as global recessions and fluctuations in economic sentiment, on firm performance; and (iv) demonstrating superior forecasting performance compared with traditional univariate models. In summary, our structural model of operating cash flow enhances our understanding of its dynamics, enabling better-informed decision making and more effective cash flow management in firms.
有效管理企业的经营现金流对于支持增长、偿还债务和维护整体财务健康至关重要。现金流管理不善可能导致严重的流动性问题甚至企业失败。然而，管理经营现金流之所以复杂，是因为它与销售、运营成本、库存、应付款项等运营变量之间存在复杂、内生的关系，以及外生宏观经济因素对企业的影响。在本文中，我们提出了一种经营现金流的结构模型，该模型解开了这种内生性，使我们能够估计这些变量之间的因果关系，并提供了一个评估现金流管理政策的宝贵工具。将我们的模型应用于从 1990 年到 2020 年涵盖的 S&P Compustat 数据库的季度财务数据以及宏观经济指标，我们提供了关于现金流与其他运营变量内生性的实证证据。 我们通过以下方式展示了我们模型的实用价值：(i) 识别结构性冲击的特征及其在系统中引发的新均衡；(ii) 提供一个评估管理行动或政策决策的工具，以抵消这些冲击；(iii) 预测宏观经济事件（如全球衰退和经济情绪波动）对企业绩效的影响；(iv) 与传统的单变量模型相比，展示出更优越的预测性能。总之，我们的经营现金流结构模型增强了我们对现金流动态的理解，使企业能够做出更明智的决策，并更有效地进行现金流管理。

Long Lags and Large Returns: Experimental Evidence from Advertising to Businesses

长期滞后与高额回报：商业广告的实验证据
Michael Thomas, Marcel Goic, Kirthi Kalyanam
Using a multiyear experiment, we show that advertising to businesses can generate very different responses than has been observed for consumers. First, we estimate larger advertising returns than typically found for consumers: a return on ad spend of 12.0 (95% CI: 4.8–24.5). Second, we estimate longer lags between ad delivery and purchase: 1–5 months for first-time purchases and 5–12 months or longer for repeat purchases. Third, we find that existing business customers are responsible for most of the revenue lift from advertising, though this appears to be driven by existing business customers purchasing new parts. Additionally, our results demonstrate that geography-based switchback experiments that randomize the time between treatments can provide an effective means of estimating lagged effects. For this study we randomized the delivery of digital display ads for electronic components offered by a semiconductor manufacturer; nearly all electronic products require such components.
通过一项多年实验，我们表明企业广告与消费者广告产生的反应差异很大。首先，我们估计的广告回报率高于通常对消费者发现的情况：广告支出回报率为 12.0（95%置信区间：4.8–24.5）。其次，我们估计广告投放与购买之间的时间间隔更长：首次购买为 1–5 个月，重复购买为 5–12 个月或更长时间。第三，我们发现现有企业客户是广告收入增长的主要来源，尽管这似乎是由现有企业客户购买新部件所驱动的。此外，我们的结果表明，基于地理位置的回转实验，通过随机化治疗时间，可以提供一种有效的方法来估计滞后效应。在本研究中，我们随机化了半导体制造商提供的电子元件数字展示广告的投放；几乎所有电子产品都需要这些元件。

Source Theory: A Tractable and Positive Ambiguity Theory

源理论：一种可处理和积极的模糊性理论
Aurélien Baillon, Han Bleichrodt, Chen Li, Peter P. Wakker
This paper introduces source theory, a new theory for decision under ambiguity (unknown probabilities). It shows how Savage’s subjective probabilities, with source-dependent nonlinear weighting functions, can model Ellsberg’s ambiguity. It can do so in Savage’s framework of state-contingent assets, permits nonexpected utility for risk, and avoids multistage complications. It is tractable, shows ambiguity attitudes through simple graphs, is empirically realistic, and can be used prescriptively. We provide a new tool to analyze weighting functions: pmatchers. They give Arrow–Pratt-like transformations but operate “within” rather than “outside” functions. We further show that ambiguity perception and inverse S probability weighting, seemingly unrelated concepts, are two sides of the same “insensitivity” coin.
本文介绍了源理论，这是一种用于模糊决策（未知概率）的新理论。它展示了如何通过具有源依赖的非线性加权函数的萨维奇主观概率来模拟埃尔斯伯格模糊性。它可以在萨维奇的状态依资产框架内实现这一点，允许风险的非预期效用，并避免多阶段复杂性。它是可处理的，通过简单的图表展示模糊态度，具有实证现实性，并且可以用于规范性分析。我们提供了一个新的分析加权函数的工具：pmatchers。它们提供类似阿罗-普拉特式的转换，但操作方式是在“函数内部”而不是“函数外部”。我们进一步表明，模糊感知和逆 S 概率加权，这两个看似无关的概念，实际上是同一“不敏感性”硬币的两面。

CEO Hometown Preference in Corporate Environmental Policies

CEO 籍贯偏好与企业环境政策
Wei Li, Qiping Xu, Qifei Zhu
We exploit within-firm variations in plant-level toxic releases to examine the effect of managerial hometown preference on corporate environmental policies. We find that pollution levels are about 30% lower for plants located near chief executive officers’ (CEOs’) hometowns. This reduction is achieved through resource-intensive pollution control efforts, including source reduction and waste management activities. Analyses using CEO turnover provide causal inferences. Local residents benefit from CEO hometown pollution reduction as localities hosting more hometown plants experience improved environmental conditions and better residential health outcomes. On the other hand, some evidence suggests that CEOs’ hometown preference is related to agency frictions. Overall, our findings reveal the impact of CEOs’ personal motivations on corporate pollution dynamics and their consequential effects on the well-being of local communities.
我们利用企业内部工厂层面的有毒排放差异来检验管理者籍贯偏好对企业环境政策的影响。我们发现，位于首席执行官（CEO）家乡附近的工厂的污染水平大约降低了 30%。这种减少是通过资源密集型的污染控制措施实现的，包括源头减少和废物管理活动。利用 CEO 更替的分析提供了因果推断。当地居民从 CEO 家乡的污染减少中受益，因为拥有更多家乡工厂的地区经历了环境条件的改善和住宅健康结果的提升。另一方面，一些证据表明，CEO 的家乡偏好与代理摩擦有关。总体而言，我们的研究揭示了 CEO 个人动机对企业污染动态的影响及其对当地社区福祉的后果。

The Effect of On-the-Job Experience on Base-Rate Neglect: Evidence from Medical Professionals

工作经历对基准率忽视的影响：来自医疗专业人员的证据
Felipe A. Araujo, Christopher F. Chabris, Michelle N. Meyer
We study the effect of on-the-job experience on base-rate neglect, which is a common bias in assessing conditional probabilities. We do so by carrying out experiments with medical professionals, who are routinely exposed to conditional-probability problems in the form of diagnostic tests, and nonmedical professionals, who are not. As such, medical workers with more years of experience will have had more exposure to base-rate type problems than nonmedical workers with similar years of experience. We estimate the effect of on-the-job experience by comparing the answers of more or less experienced professionals in both the medical and nonmedical domains. Although the incidence of the bias is high for both groups and all levels of experience, we find that more experienced medical workers (a) have lower rates of perfect base-rate neglect (i.e., completely ignoring the base rates), (b) provide more accurate posterior estimates, and (c) adjust their estimates more in response to changes in the base rates. We observe no such difference for nonmedical workers. We conduct a number of robustness checks and consider possible mechanisms, such as education, job or survey attrition, selectivity into medical professions, and experience with false positives. Our results suggests that on-the-job experience mitigates, but does not eliminate, base-rate neglect.
我们研究了在职经验对基准率忽视的影响，这是一种在评估条件概率时常见的偏差。我们通过实验来研究这一问题，实验对象包括医疗专业人员（他们日常接触以诊断测试形式出现的条件概率问题）和非医疗专业人员（他们不接触此类问题）。因此，具有更多年工作经验的医疗工作者比具有相似年工作经验的非医疗工作者接触过更多基准率类型的问题。我们通过比较医疗领域和非医疗领域中经验或多或少的专业人士的答案来估计在职经验的影响。尽管两组所有经验水平的偏差发生率都很高，但我们发现经验更丰富的医疗工作者（a）具有更低的完美基准率忽视率（即完全忽视基准率），（b）提供更准确的后验估计，以及（c）在基准率变化时更频繁地调整他们的估计。我们未在非医疗工作者中观察到这种差异。 我们进行了一系列稳健性检验，并考虑了可能的机制，例如教育、工作或调查流失、进入医疗行业的筛选性以及与假阳性的经验。我们的结果表明，工作中的经验减轻了基础率忽视，但并未完全消除。

Selling Data to Marketers

向营销人员销售数据
Liang Guo
The supply and the demand for data analytics are growing rapidly. Recent years have seen a surge in the availability of massive consumer data and in the emergence of data sellers (e.g., brokers and intermediaries). Unlike standard products, the value of data analytics for marketers depends on how their business decisions can be enabled and improved. In this paper, we investigate how a monopoly seller can offer a menu of data-based service plans to screen heterogenous marketers that can decide whether to take an action (e.g., direct selling, targeting, lending) with uncertain value and privately known cost. We characterize how, and for which marketers, the provision of information may be distorted in the optimal design. We present conditions under which optimally supplied information can be socially excessive or insufficient. It is shown that selling data appends may yield double reversals in the optimal service plans, in comparison with those when the seller’s offerings serve as marketing lists (i.e., the action is infeasible under the marketers’ outside option). We articulate how these results are coherently driven by the same underlying mechanism regarding how the marginal value of information is endogenously derived from the improvement in the marketers’ decision making over their default action. We also examine how our results can be enriched in alternative settings on the production and the costs of information.
数据分析和数据需求的增长非常迅速。近年来，大规模消费者数据的可用性激增，数据卖家（例如中介和经纪人）也大量涌现。与标准产品不同，数据分析对营销者的价值取决于其如何使业务决策得以实现和改进。在本文中，我们研究了垄断卖家如何提供一系列基于数据的增值服务计划，以筛选异质营销者，这些营销者可以决定是否采取行动（例如直接销售、目标营销、贷款），其价值不确定且成本为私有信息。我们描述了在最优设计中，信息提供如何以及对于哪些营销者可能被扭曲。我们提出了最优信息供给可能对社会过度或不足的条件。研究表明，与卖家提供的营销名单（即营销者在外部选择下无法采取行动）相比，销售数据增值服务可能导致最优服务计划出现双重逆转。 我们阐述了这些结果是如何由同一个潜在机制一致地驱动的，该机制涉及信息的边际价值如何内生地源于营销人员对其默认行动的决策改进。我们还考察了我们的结果如何在信息生产和成本的不同环境下得到丰富。

Platform Competition and Interoperability: The Net Fee Model

平台竞争与互操作性：网络费模式
Mehmet Ekmekci, Alexander White, Lingxuan Wu
Is more competition the key to mitigating dominance by large tech platforms? Could regulation of such markets be a better alternative? We study the effects of competition and interoperability regulation in platform markets. To do so, we propose an approach of competition in net fees, which is well-suited to situations in which users pay additional charges, after joining, for on-platform interactions. Compared with existing approaches, the net fee model expands the tractable scope to allow variable total demand, platform asymmetry, and merger analysis. Regarding competition, we find that adding more platforms to the market may lead to the emergence of a dominant firm. In contrast, we find that interoperability can play a key role in reducing market dominance and lowering prices. Broadly speaking, our results favor policy interventions that assure the formidability of the competition that dominant platforms face.
竞争加剧能否缓解大型科技平台的垄断地位？对这类市场的监管是否是更好的替代方案？我们研究了竞争和互操作性监管对平台市场的影响。为此，我们提出了净费竞争的方法，该方法适用于用户加入后为平台内互动支付额外费用的场景。与现有方法相比，净费模式扩展了可操作性范围，允许总需求可变、平台不对称性和并购分析。关于竞争，我们发现增加更多平台进入市场可能导致主导企业的出现。相反，我们发现互操作性可以在减少市场垄断和降低价格方面发挥关键作用。总体而言，我们的研究结果支持确保主导平台面临竞争威力的政策干预。

Economics of Social Media Fake Accounts

社交媒体虚假账号的经济学
Zihong Huang, De Liu
Amid the rise of the influencer economy, fake social media accounts have become prevalent on many social media platforms. Yet the problem of fake accounts is still poorly understood, and so is the effectiveness of coping strategies. This research models the ecosystem of fake accounts in an influencer economy and obtains insights on fake account purchasing behaviors, the impact of antifake efforts, and the roles of various contextual factors. We show that as the antifake effort increases, the equilibrium may transition from a “pooling” equilibrium, where a low-quality influencer buys fake accounts to mimic a high-quality one, to a “costly separating” equilibrium, where a high-quality influencer may buy fake accounts to prevent mimicry from a low-quality influencer, and to a “naturally separating” equilibrium where low- and high-quality influencers are separated without buying fake accounts. We find that increasing antifake efforts and increasing social media literacy may sometimes result in more fake accounts. A purely profit-driven platform always prefers a pooling equilibrium with zero antifake effort. As a platform puts more weight on consumer welfare, it may exert a positive effort to induce a separating equilibrium, but the platform’s preferred antifake effort tends to be lower than that of consumers. We also find that the platform sometimes prefers a lower social media literacy and a lower fake account base price, whereas consumers prefer the opposite. In contrast, improving the antifake technology level can benefit both the platform and consumers. Our main insights are applicable to scenarios with more influencer types and repeated interactions.
在网红经济兴起的背景下，虚假社交媒体账号在许多社交平台上变得普遍。然而，虚假账号的问题仍然缺乏理解，应对策略的有效性也是如此。本研究构建了网红经济中虚假账号的生态系统模型，并获得了关于虚假账号购买行为、反虚假努力的影响以及各种情境因素的角色的见解。我们发现，随着反虚假努力的增加，均衡可能从“混合”均衡（即低质量网红购买虚假账号来模仿高质量网红）转变为“高成本分离”均衡（即高质量网红购买虚假账号以防止低质量网红的模仿），并最终转变为“自然分离”均衡（即低质量和高质量网红无需购买虚假账号即可分离）。我们发现，增加反虚假努力和提高社交媒体素养有时会导致更多虚假账号。纯粹以利润为导向的平台始终倾向于零反虚假努力的混合均衡。 随着平台更加重视消费者福利，它可能会付出积极努力来诱导分离均衡，但平台首选的反欺诈努力往往低于消费者。我们还发现，平台有时倾向于较低的社会媒体素养和较低的虚假账户基础价格，而消费者则倾向于相反。相比之下，提高反欺诈技术水平可以同时使平台和消费者受益。我们的主要见解适用于具有更多影响者类型和重复互动的场景。

How Do Domestic and Foreign Firms Respond to a Reduction in Competition from the Public Sector? Evidence from Vaccine Markets in India

国内和国外企业如何应对公共部门竞争的减少？来自印度疫苗市场的证据
Arzi Adbi, Anant Mishra, Chirantan Chatterjee
This study examines how domestic and foreign firms in the private sector respond to a reduction in competition from the public sector. Our analysis exploits the sudden suspension of production licenses of vaccine-manufacturing public sector units (PSUs) in January 2008 in India, home to more than 1.2 billion people at that time. Although the suspension presented a window of opportunity for private sector firms, the opportunity was laden with high uncertainty. Despite this uncertainty, we find that the suspension was associated with revenue gains driven by new product introductions and that these gains persist even after the supply suspension revocation in February 2010. Importantly, unlike domestic firms, foreign firms gain little. We explore potential mechanisms and find evidence consistent with one of them being the major reason for the differing impact: Domestic firms better navigate the challenges arising from political pluralism, an institutional feature characterized by a lack of political alignment between national and subnational governments. In the presence of political alignment, domestic firms do not have a comparative advantage over foreign firms. Our evidence thus highlights that even an uncertain and transitory window of opportunity arising from a controversial reduction in competition from the public sector can lead to a fundamental market restructuring in ways that can diverge from the intended policy objective. In particular, domestic firms’ ability to manage political pluralism is a core mechanism explaining their comparative advantage over foreign firms in the wake of a national crisis.
本研究考察了私营部门的国内外企业如何应对公共部门竞争的减少。我们的分析利用了 2008 年 1 月印度突然暂停疫苗制造公共部门企业（PSU）生产许可证的情况，当时印度人口超过 12 亿。尽管暂停为私营企业提供了机会窗口，但这一机会伴随着高度不确定性。尽管存在这种不确定性，我们发现暂停与新产品推出带来的收入增长相关，并且这些增长在 2010 年 2 月供应暂停撤销后仍然持续。重要的是，与国内企业不同，外国企业几乎没有获得收益。我们探讨了潜在机制，并发现证据支持其中一个是导致不同影响的主要原因：国内企业能更好地应对政治多元化带来的挑战，而政治多元化是一种制度特征，其特点是中央政府和地方政府之间缺乏政治一致性。在存在政治一致性的情况下，国内企业并不比外国企业具有比较优势。 我们的证据表明，即使是由公共部门竞争减少引发的、不确定且短暂的机会窗口，也可能导致市场发生根本性重构，其方式可能与政策目标相背离。特别是，国内企业在应对国家危机时，管理政治多元化的能力是其相对于外国企业的比较优势的核心机制。

On Greedy-Like Policies in Online Matching with Reusable Network Resources and Decaying Rewards

在线匹配中具有可重复使用网络资源和衰减奖励的贪婪类策略
David Simchi-Levi, Zeyu Zheng, Feng Zhu
We build a unified modeling framework for classical online matching problems and emerging online matching problems with three additional practical features: reusable resources, network resources, and decaying rewards. For online matching problems in the unified framework, we provide a unified performance analysis tool for the greedy policy and its simple variants, which we refer to as greedy-like policies. We prove that greedy-like policies can achieve near-optimal performances for online matching problems in the unified framework, where the policy performance is measured by competitive ratios under adversarial environments. We then analyze several representative special classes of online matching problems, which incorporate additional realistic structural assumptions on top of the unified framework. Specifically, we consider online matching problems with each of the following three additional structures: (i) singleton resources with time-decaying rewards; (ii) network resources with accept/reject decisions; and (iii) network resources with interval-type bundles. We show that for these special classes of online matching problems, slight modifications to greedy-like policies can successfully utilize additional structural information to further enhance policy performances. This work may suggest that the greedy policy and its variants, despite its simplicity, can achieve reliable performances for a number of emerging online matching problems.
我们构建了一个统一建模框架，用于处理经典在线匹配问题以及具有三个额外实际特征的在线匹配问题：可重复使用资源、网络资源和衰减奖励。对于统一框架中的在线匹配问题，我们为贪婪策略及其简单变体（我们称之为贪婪类策略）提供了一个统一的性能分析工具。我们证明，贪婪类策略可以在统一框架中的在线匹配问题中实现接近最优的性能，其中策略性能通过对抗环境下的竞争比来衡量。然后，我们分析了几个具有代表性的在线匹配问题的特殊类别，这些类别在统一框架的基础上增加了额外的现实结构假设。具体来说，我们考虑了具有以下三种额外结构的在线匹配问题：(i) 具有时间衰减奖励的单例资源；(ii) 具有接受/拒绝决策的网络资源；以及(iii) 具有区间类型捆绑的网络资源。 我们证明了对于这些特殊的在线匹配问题类别，对贪婪类策略进行微小修改可以成功利用额外的结构信息来进一步提升策略性能。这项工作可能表明，贪婪策略及其变体尽管简单，但对于许多新兴的在线匹配问题仍能实现可靠的性能。

Evaluating Mortgage Renegotiation Strategies: A Data-Driven Framework for Investors

评估抵押贷款重新谈判策略：投资者数据驱动框架
Sanket Korgaonkar
This paper offers a novel framework to quantify the expected gains from renegotiating delinquent loans. The framework accounts for important trade-offs between concessions to borrowers, postdelinquency loan performance, and expected collateral values. The framework’s parameters are calibrated using data on renegotiated 30-year residential fixed-rate mortgages that went delinquent during the Great Recession. Our model-implied expected gains increase during the 2007–2009 period coinciding with an increase in the rate of loan renegotiation. Counterfactual analyses show that larger expected gains can be generated from employing principal forbearance and extensions of the term to maturity compared with principal write-downs and interest-rate reductions. On the other hand, principal write-downs can be a powerful tool when borrowers are deeply underwater. Our analyses illustrate how lenders or policymakers might deploy this framework when faced with another delinquency crisis.
本文提出了一种新颖的框架，用于量化重新谈判拖欠贷款的预期收益。该框架考虑了借款人让步、拖欠后贷款表现和预期抵押品价值之间的重要权衡。该框架的参数使用大衰退期间拖欠的 30 年期固定利率住房抵押贷款的重新谈判数据校准。我们的模型隐含的预期收益在 2007-2009 年期间增加，这与贷款重新谈判率上升的时期相吻合。反事实分析表明，与本金减记和利率下调相比，采用本金宽限和延长到期期限可以产生更大的预期收益。另一方面，当借款人深陷债务时，本金减记可以成为一项强大的工具。我们的分析说明了当面临另一次拖欠危机时，贷款人或政策制定者如何运用这一框架。

Exchanges for Government Bonds? Evidence During COVID-19

政府债券交易？COVID-19 期间的证据
Ari Kutai, Daniel Nathan, Milena Wittwer
We leverage the unique institutional feature that the Israeli government bond market operates on an exchange rather than over-the-counter to analyze whether and why having an exchange affects market liquidity during a crisis. We document how the liquidity crisis in March 2020 affected the Israeli government bond market and conduct difference-in-differences analyses, comparing bid-ask spreads in exchange markets, such as the Israeli government bond market, with markets lacking an exchange. Our findings support the idea that having an exchange enhances market liquidity. A counterfactual analysis using trade data from the Israeli exchange suggests that this is due to the ability of investors to readily provide liquidity to one another and the efficient netting of trade flows on an exchange.
我们利用以色列政府债券市场独特的制度特征——该市场在交易所内而非场外交易，来分析交易所的存在是否以及为何会影响危机期间的市场流动性。我们记录了 2020 年 3 月流动性危机如何影响以色列政府债券市场，并进行了双重差分分析，比较了交易所市场（如以色列政府债券市场）与无交易所市场的买卖价差。我们的研究结果表明，交易所的存在能够提升市场流动性。基于以色列交易所的交易数据进行的反事实分析表明，这得益于投资者能够便捷地向彼此提供流动性，以及交易所对交易流量的高效净额结算。

Adaptive Pricing in Combinatorial Auctions

组合拍卖中的动态定价
Sébastien Lahaie, Benjamin Lubin
We introduce the first adaptively priced iterative combinatorial auction design, which gradually extends price expressiveness as the rounds progress. This mechanism achieves both high efficiency and fast convergence across a wide range of valuation domains. We implement our auction design using polynomial prices, show how to detect when the current price structure is insufficient to clear the market, and show how to correctly expand the polynomial structure to guarantee progress. An experimental evaluation confirms that our auction is competitive with bundle-price auctions in domains where these excel, namely multiminded valuations, but also performs well in domains favorable to linear prices, such as valuations with pairwise synergy.
我们介绍了一种首个自适应定价的迭代组合拍卖设计，该设计随着轮次的进行逐渐扩展价格表达能力。这种机制在广泛的估值领域中实现了高效率和快速收敛。我们使用多项式价格实现我们的拍卖设计，展示了如何检测当前价格结构是否不足以清空市场，以及如何正确扩展多项式结构以保证进展。实验评估证实，我们的拍卖在与捆绑价格拍卖在它们擅长的领域（即多目标估值）中具有竞争力，同时在有利于线性价格领域中表现良好，例如具有成对协同效应的估值。