Air Freight | Europe & Middle East | Rates | Industry Trends
Geopolitics
🌍地缘政治
黑海商船风险陡增:2026年已超570艘遇袭,约为波斯湾六倍
据央视/环球网11月12日综合报道,2026年以来黑海已成为全球商船航运风险最突出的海域之一:海事安保机构安布里(Ambrey)与国际海事组织数据显示,黑海已有超过570艘船舶遭袭、至少40名船员死亡,遭袭次数约为同期波斯湾的六倍;第三季度单季约387艘受袭,为上一季度的五倍以上。袭击涵盖无人机(艇)、导弹、水雷与GPS干扰,10月起进一步向罗马尼亚、保加利亚等黑海西岸海域扩散,战争险费用急剧攀升。俄国防部亦于11月6日、8日通报在敖德萨西南海域及切尔诺莫尔斯克港击中向乌方运送物资的干货船与集装箱船。
CCTV/GLOBAL TIMES reported on 12 November, citing Ambrey and IMO data, that the Black Sea has become one of the world's most dangerous shipping areas in 2026: over 570 vessels attacked and at least 40 crew dead — roughly six times the Persian Gulf toll over the same period; about 387 vessels were hit in Q3 alone, more than five times the prior quarter. Attacks use drones (incl. USVs), missiles, mines and GPS jamming and since October have spread to Romania's and Bulgaria's waters, sharply raising war-risk premiums. Russia's defence ministry said on 6 and 8 November it struck a dry-cargo ship off southwest Odessa and a container vessel at Chornomorsk port carrying military and dual-use cargo.
巴拿马运河放宽通航限制:日通行量33→34艘,最大授权吃水升至15.24米
巴拿马运河管理局(ACP)11月9日公告,得益于运河流域降雨增加、加通湖水位改善及船闸节水措施见效,自11月12日起将每日通航船舶数量从33艘增至34艘,并将新巴拿马型船闸最大授权吃水上调至15.24米(50英尺),立即生效。新增名额来自巴拿马型船闸,初期经预约系统拍卖与特别分配轮次投放。管理局强调,水资源短缺尚未根本缓解,未预约船舶仍可能面临严重延误。
The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) announced on 9 November that, thanks to increased rainfall, improved Gatun Lake levels and lock water-saving measures, from 12 November the daily transit cap rises from 33 to 34 vessels and the Neopanamax locks' maximum authorised draft is raised to 15.24 m (50 ft), effective immediately. The extra slot comes from the Panamax locks and is initially released via the booking-system auction and special allocation rounds. The Authority stressed that the water shortage is not fundamentally resolved and unbooked vessels may still face significant delays.
Policy Compliance
📃政策合规
中美同步宣布关税延期:中方暂停24%加征两月,美方延展301豁免至明年初
11月9日,国务院关税税则委员会公告,自11月10日13:01起两个月内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税、保留10%基础税率;交通运输部同步继续暂停对美船舶特别港务费至2027年1月10日。美方USTR于11月6日将178项对华301关税豁免延至2027年1月9日,并延展涉华船舶港口费暂停期。
On 9 November China's State Council Tariff Commission announced that from 13:01 on 10 November it will keep the additional 24% tariff on US goods suspended for two months while retaining the 10% baseline; the Ministry of Transport likewise extended the pause on special port fees for US-flagged vessels to 10 January 2027. The USTR on 6 November extended 178 China Section 301 exclusions to 9 January 2027 and prolonged the pause on China-built vessel port fees.
欧盟CBAM进入成本实操期,50吨微量豁免与"授权申报人"成合规焦点
CBAM于2026年1月1日进入正式期,2027年起进口商须购证清缴。11月12日马德里商会与Carbon Glance研讨会聚焦"避免碳账单超支50%以上":年度CBAM货物累计不超50净吨可豁免,超阈者须先取得授权申报人资格,否则货物或在海关滞留、并按未申报CO₂每吨至少100欧元处罚。使用默认排放值将使账单增加逾50%。
CBAM entered its definitive phase on 1 January 2026, with importers obliged to buy and surrender certificates from 2027. A 12 November seminar by the Madrid Chamber of Commerce and Carbon Glance focused on avoiding cost overruns above 50%: importers whose cumulative annual CBAM goods stay below 50 net tonnes are exempt, while those above must first obtain Authorised Declarant status or risk customs holds and penalties from €100 per tonne of undeclared CO₂; using default emission values can raise the bill by more than 50%.
Freight Rate Market
📈运价市场
全球空运运价一周跳涨6.6%至2924点,刷新2026年高位
TAC指数与波罗的海交易所11月9日数据:全球波罗的海空运指数BAI00报2924点,周涨6.6%、同比涨28.2%,收复前一周微跌并站上2026年最高。分枢纽:香港BAI30报5168点(+4.6%周/+29.2%年)、上海浦东BAI80报6485点(+5.7%/+21.1%)、法兰克福BAI20报1348点(+9.9%/+48.1%)、伦敦希思罗BAI40报1344点(+5.6%)、芝加哥BAI50报1190点(+21.9%)。
TAC Index and the Baltic Exchange data for 9 November put the global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) at 2,924, up 6.6% on the week and 28.2% year on year, reclaiming the prior week's slight dip and marking its 2026 high. By hub: Hong Kong (BAI30) 5,168 (+4.6% WoW, +29.2% YoY), Shanghai Pudong (BAI80) 6,485 (+5.7%, +21.1%), Frankfurt (BAI20) 1,348 (+9.9%, +48.1%), London Heathrow (BAI40) 1,344 (+5.6%) and Chicago (BAI50) 1,190 (+21.9%).
SCFI综合指数3633.45点周跌1.5%,跨太平洋与欧线走弱、地中海仍有支撑
上海航运交易所11月6日数据:SCFI综合指数报3633.45点,较上周3687.35点回落1.5%,结束此前四周连涨。市场评述显示,美西与美东运价承压下行,欧洲线回归弱势,地中海部分航线仍获较强支撑。德鲁里WCI于11月5日微跌1%至4389美元/40尺箱,上海—鹿特丹降2%至3615美元。
Shanghai Shipping Exchange data for 6 November put the SCFI composite at 3,633.45, down 1.5% from 3,687.35 the prior week and ending a four-week run of gains. Market commentary points to downward pressure on US West and East Coast rates and a return to a weaker trend on Europe, while parts of the Mediterranean retain firmer support. Drewry's WCI eased 1% to US$4,389 per 40ft on 5 November, with Shanghai–Rotterdam down 2% to US$3,615.
Air Freight
✈️航空货运
空运步入传统旺季最忙数周,电商与AI货盘支撑亚洲出港需求
TAC市场更新称,在黑五、感恩节与圣诞节前,全球空运正进入传统旺季最繁忙数周,运价处于2026年最高、显著高于前两个旺季峰值;BAI现货价在香港、上海与韩国出港主要航线全线上扬。需求侧由跨境电商与AI服务器、半导体货盘拉动,亚洲—北美与亚洲出港整体走强,曼谷则因积压扰动进出港货量。
TAC market commentary says global airfreight is entering the busiest weeks of the traditional peak ahead of Black Friday, Thanksgiving and Christmas, with rates at their 2026 high and well above the previous two peak-season peaks; BAI Spot prices rose on all major lanes out of Hong Kong, Shanghai and Korea. Demand is led by cross-border e-commerce and AI-server and semiconductor cargo, lifting Asia–North America and Asia outbound overall, while Bangkok saw volumes disrupted by reported backlogs.
日货航与全日空上调日本出港货运燃油附加费,11月16日起生效
日本货物航空(NCA)11月9日公告,自11月16日起适用新燃油附加费,依据10月16—31日航油均价174.35美元/桶:TC1(北美/南美)与TC2(欧/非/中东)均为198日元/公斤,TC3长程(东南亚)121日元/公斤,TC3短程(东亚)97日元/公斤。全日空(ANA)货运同步按同区间(174.35美元/桶)修订,尚待国土交通省核准。
Nippon Cargo Airlines (NCA) announced on 9 November that a revised fuel surcharge applies from 16 November, based on the 16–31 October jet-fuel average of US$174.35/bbl: TC1 (North/South America) and TC2 (Europe, Africa, Middle East) at JPY 198/kg, TC3 long-haul (Southeast Asia) JPY 121/kg and TC3 short-haul (East Asia) JPY 97/kg. ANA Cargo issued a matching revision at the same price bracket, subject to MLIT approval.
Industry Infrastructure
🏗️行业基建
苏伊士运河10月过境1490艘创危机以来新高,长荣时隔近三年重返
苏伊士运河管理局11月5日称,10月运河过境1490艘、净吨8800万吨、收入7.24亿美元,同比分别增32%、86%与94%,为红海危机以来最佳月份。长荣海运"EVER EON"号于11月7日、11日经运河北上,成为最后一家重返苏伊士的海洋联盟成员;马士基/赫伯罗特双子星及MSC等多数干线已恢复。
The Suez Canal Authority said on 5 November that October brought 1,490 transits, 88 million net tonnes and US$724 million in revenue — up 32%, 86% and 94% year on year, its best month since the Red Sea crisis began. Evergreen's EVER EON transited northbound on 7 and 11 November, making it the last Ocean Alliance member to return; Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd's Gemini and MSC among most mainline services have resumed.
重庆中欧班列2026年开行量突破1000列,网络覆盖39国120城
11月9日,一列满载汽车及零配件的重庆中欧班列驶向欧洲,使该市2026年开行量突破1000列。截至目前,重庆中欧班列稳定运行线路55条,覆盖亚欧39个国家的120个枢纽城市,成为内陆对外开放的重要陆路枢纽,高附加值与高技术产品占比稳步提升。
On 9 November a Chongqing China–Europe freight train laden with vehicles and auto parts departed for Europe, taking the city's 2026 count past 1,000 trains. Chongqing now runs 55 stable routes reaching 120 hub cities across 39 countries in Asia and Europe, a key inland land corridor whose share of high-value, high-tech cargo keeps rising.
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🔗信息来源 / REFERENCE SOURCES
央视新闻 / 环球网资讯 — 黑海商船风险综述(2026-11-12)。
金融时报(Financial Times)/ 安布里(Ambrey)— 黑海2026年商船遇袭统计(2026-10-25)。
俄国防部通报(据卫星通讯社 Sputnik,2026-11-06/08)。
巴拿马运河管理局 ACP — 通航限制调整公告(2026-11-09)。
新华社 / 光明网 — 巴拿马运河上调日通行量(2026-11-10)。
航运界 — 巴拿马运河上调最大授权吃水(2026-11-11)。
国务院关税税则委员会 / 中国政府网 — 调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施(2026-11-09)。
USTR(美国贸易代表办公室)— Section 301 豁免延期公告(2026-11-06/10)。
央视网 CCTV — 中美同步宣布关税延期安排(2026-11-09)。
Enterprise Exterior / Cámara de Madrid — CBAM cost-overrun seminar(2026-11-12)。
欧盟 CBAM 条例 — Regulation (EU) 2023/956 正式期(2026-01-01 起)。
TAC Index / Baltic Exchange — 波罗的海航空货运指数 BAI(2026-11-09)。
Air Cargo Week — "Renewed hardening in rates as market heads into busiest peak weeks"(2026-11-11)。
上海航运交易所 — SCFI 周度发布(2026-11-06)。
opencontainer — SCFI 2025–2026 数据汇编(2026-11-06)。
德鲁里 Drewry — World Container Index WCI(2026-11-05)。
日本货物航空 NCA — 国际货物燃油附加费修订(2026-11-09)。
全日空货运 ANA Cargo — 日本出港货物燃油附加费修订(2026-11)。
苏伊士运河管理局 SCA — 10月过境与收入数据 / 长荣重返(2026-11-05)。
Safety4Sea / Linerlytica — Evergreen returns to Suez(2026-11)。
中国网 china.com.cn — 重庆中欧班列2026年开行量突破1000列(2026-11-12)。
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