《Foresight》英文专刊中，《量子优越性之后，寻找第一个可持续的行业付费场景》一文直面当下最核心的悬念——当“超越经典计算”已成定论，谁将成为第一个为量子计算开出支票的行业客户？
In the English-language special issue of Foresight, the article “Beyond Quantum Supremacy, Searching for the First Sustainable Industry-Paid Use Case” directly addresses the most critical open question of the moment: now that outperforming classical computing is a settled fact, who will be the first industry customer to write a check for quantum computing?
量子计算已在与经典计算的性能竞赛中赢下了“第一回合”——从“悬铃木”到“九章”，再到“祖冲之三号”。“能否超越”的疑问已被实验回答。然而，技术的凯旋尚未换来商业的确定性。2026年1—5月，全球量子计算投融资规模约10.9亿美元，未超2025年同期水平，后期轮次融资占比高达91.6%。资本用真金白银投票，仅凭技术蓝图融资的窗口期正在收窄。
Quantum computing has already won the “first round” in its performance race against classical computing—from Sycamore to Jiuzhang, and then to 105-qubit Zuchongzhi 3.0 Processor. The question of whether it can surpass classical computing has been answered experimentally. Yet technological triumph has not yet translated into commercial certainty. From January to May 2026, global quantum computing funding and investment totaled approximately US$1.09 billion, no higher than in the same period of 2025, with later-stage rounds accounting for as much as 91.6% of the total. Capital is voting with real money, and the window for raising funds on a technological blueprint alone is narrowing.
比特数不是商用的标尺
Qubit Count Is Not the Commercial Yardstick
长期以来，市场的目光停留在硬件参数的竞赛上，但决定商用前景的标尺已悄然更换。物理量子比特数固然重要，而纠错能力更是通往“可用算力”的关键转化器——在纠错实现之前，比特数的增长往往只是制造了一个更大、更嘈杂、更难控制的系统。与参数崇拜相伴的，是“量子+”概念的泛化……在这些不存在经典瓶颈的场景中强行引入量子方案，无异于“为了用量子而用量子”。
For a long time, market attention has remained fixed on competition over hardware parameters, but the yardstick that determines commercial prospects has quietly shifted. The number of physical qubits is undoubtedly important, yet error correction capability is the critical converter to “usable computational power”—before error correction is achieved, growth in qubit count often merely creates a larger, noisier, and more difficult-to-control system. Accompanying the worship of parameters is the generalization of the “quantum+” concept... Forcing quantum solutions into scenarios where no classical bottleneck exists is tantamount to “using quantum for quantum’s sake”.
真场景需要经受四个追问
Real-world use cases should withstand
four questions
辨识量子计算可落地的真场景，有四个绕不开的追问：
Identifying genuinely deployable use cases for quantum computing hinges on four unavoidable questions.
a) 问题匹配度：行业痛点是否契合量子优势？
b) 价值密度：性能改善能否转化为财务收益？
c) 客户就绪度：目标客户是否接受NISQ时代的现实？
d) 生态集成可行性：解决方案能否基于“有效算力”嵌入现有工作流？
a) Problem Matching — Do the Industry Pain Points Align with Quantum Advantage?
b) Value Density — Can Performance Improvements Be Converted into Financial Returns?
c) Customer Readiness — Does the Target Customer Accept the Realities of the NISQ Era?
d) Ecosystem Integration Feasibility — Can the Solution Be Embedded into existing enterprise workflows？
我们将四个关键追问整合为一个可视化的评估矩阵，选取了已公开披露试点项目或业内普遍认为具备量子计算应用价值的12个垂直行业，对它们进行了系统性分析。结果显示，金融、生物医药与制药、材料科学位列优先突破区，具备较为明确的商业化路径——同时具备契合量子优势的核心痛点、清晰的价值转化路径、理解当前技术现实的客户群体，以及以有效算力为标尺的技术生态。（关于完整评估结果，请扫描前文图中二维码阅读原文）
Integrating these four critical questions, we established a visual assessment matrix to systematically analyze 12 vertical industries that have either publicly disclosed pilot projects or are widely recognized as possessing potential for quantum computing applications. The results indicate that Finance, Biomedicine and Pharmaceuticals, and Materials Science are positioned in the priority breakthrough zone, each with a relatively well-defined commercialization pathway and combines core pain points closely aligned with quantum advantage, a clear value-conversion pathway, a customer base that understands current technological realities, and a technology ecosystem benchmarked by effective computational power. (For the complete assessment results, please scan the provided QR code to read the full report.)
金融业正在完成“关键一跃”
Financial Services Is Completing a Critical Leap
全球部分知名金融机构已经展开前瞻布局，量子计算应用正在从概念验证走向商业落地。摩根大通与亚马逊、加州理工合作，使数千资产级组合优化实现约1000倍加速；高盛在量子硬件上部署期权定价核心子程序验证，实现衍生品定价的量子加速验证；劳埃德银行借助量子图核识别出真实“钱骡”网络，金融监管从“被动监控”转向“主动识别”；慕尼黑再保险组建专职量子团队，为容错时代提前储备巨灾风险的量化能力。
Some major global financial institutions have already embarked on forward-looking deployments, with quantum computing applications advancing from proofs of concept to commercial implementation. JPMorgan Chase, in collaboration with Amazon and Caltech, demonstrated a ~1,000× speedup in thousand-asset portfolio optimization; Goldman Sachs deployed and validated core subroutines for option pricing on quantum hardware, achieving quantum acceleration validation for derivatives pricing; Lloyds Bank used quantum graph kernels to identify real “money mule” networks, shifting financial supervision from “passive monitoring” to “active identification”; and Munich Re established a dedicated quantum team to build up quantitative capabilities for catastrophe risk in advance for the FTQC era.
量子计算的真正落地，依赖于对“真场景”的严谨验证，而非对技术参数的盲目追逐。金融业量子应用的成败已不仅是行业的内部事务，而是量子计算从“科学奇观”迈向“价值常态”的关键分水岭。第一个可持续付费场景的确立，既是对过去十余年技术积累的集中兑现，更是对未来产业发展走向的定义。
The true deployment of quantum computing depends on rigorous validation of “genuine use cases”, not the blind pursuit of technical parameters. The success or failure of quantum computing applications in the financial sector is no longer an industry-internal affair; it is the critical watershed determining whether quantum computing moves from a “scientific spectacle” to a “value norm”. The establishment of the first sustainable industry-paid use case represents both the concentrated realization of over a decade of technology accumulation and a defining moment for the future development trend of the industry landscape.
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来源 | 赛迪顾问
编辑 | 办公室
