Allianz Trade’s outlook, published on 27 October, forecasts a 4% rise in business insolvencies across Western Europe in 2026, including increases of 8% in Germany and 3% in France. Transport remains among the sectors most exposed.
Across all sectors, the first nine months of the year saw a record 376 large-company insolvencies worldwide, including 229 in Western Europe. These figures cover businesses with turnover above €50 million.
Energy costs are adding to the strain. Allianz estimates that their impact on European road hauliers’ net margins could reach 10 percentage points. This is an upper-bound estimate: higher freight rates and cost savings could offset part of the pressure.
Meanwhile, the truck market is recovering. According to ACEA, EU truck registrations rose 7.5% to 245,079 vehicles in January–September 2026, with heavy trucks up 8.5%. Among major markets, Poland (+20.5%) and Spain (+13.2%) recorded the strongest growth. Germany gained 2.5%, while France declined 1.6%.
Registration growth alone tells us little about additional transport capacity. New vehicles may replace older trucks, a pattern highlighted in ING’s analysis of the market. Actual availability also depends on drivers and carriers’ ability to serve specific routes.
For shippers, it makes sense to check capacity route by route and assess transport partners’ financial resilience alongside their rates.
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