Issue: 2025-36
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Market Brief – 2025 Week 38
Although global container volumes have remained resilient so far this year, freight rates continue to be beaten down. The SCFI rally was short-lived as the composite index slumped by 14.3% last week in its 3rd worst weekly drop since 2009 as carriers gave up all their Transpacific rate gains in early September and resumed their price war ahead of the Golden Week holidays in China. Rates from China to the emerging markets were not spared, as carriers slashed rates across the board in the absence of capacity discipline.
With no substantive announcements following the discussions between the leaders of China and US last week, COSCO has already signalled their intention to match their US rivals’ rates and committed to retain their transpacific network despite the looming USTR service fee that will be implemented on 14 October, setting the stage for a protracted price war.
Source: Linerlytica
Chinese container volumes at record high despite US tariffs
Shanghai and Ningbo recorded their highest ever monthly container throughput in August, as global container volumes have remained resilient despite the gloomy trade and economic outlook. Total volumes at the 2 largest Chinese ports exceeded 5m teu and 4m teu respectively in the past month and continue to defy the impact of the US tariffs, with significant growth recorded on the Intra-Asia, Indian subcontinent, Latin America and Africa routes.
In the first 7 months of 2025, container volumes handled at Chinese ports (including Hong Kong) grew by 5.9% and the relative strength is expected to be maintained through the end of this year. Global container throughput is expected to grow by a better than expected 3.2% for the full year as the US tariffs have failed to dampen global volume growth.
Source: Linerlytica
Freight Market Update: September 25, 2025
No Updates This Week
World Container Index - 25 September
Drewry’s World Container Index decreased 8% to $1,761 per 40ft container this week.
Source: Drewry
Our detailed assessment for Thursday, 25 September 2025
The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) fell 8% to $1,761 per 40ft container, marking the 15th consecutive week of decline with rates on major trade routes—Transpacific and Asia–Europe—also trending downwards.
Spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles decreased 10% to $2,311 per 40ft container, while those from Shanghai to New York decreased 8% to $3,278 per 40ft container. Despite a brief uptick in early September, the momentum from GRIs and blank sailings has now subsided, which has led to the reduction in rates.
Asia–Europe spot rates fell this week again, as rates declined 9% ($1,735 per 40ft container) on Shanghai–Rotterdam and 7% ($1,990 per 40ft container) on Shanghai–Genoa. Ocean carriers are reducing capacity to align with slowing demand ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday, when factories will be shut for eight days from 1 October. As a result, freight rates are expected to continue declining in the coming week.
Drewry’s Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken in the next few quarters, which will cause spot rates to contract.
Our assessment across eight major East-West trades:
Source: Drewry
WorldACD Weekly Air Cargo Trends 2025 - week 37
22 September 2025
India to USA tonnages continue to fall despite wider volume rebound
Air cargo tonnages from India to the USA have continued to fall since new tariffs of 50% came into force on 27 August, despite a wider rebound in worldwide and US volumes in the second full week of September.
According to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, chargeable weight from India to the USA dropped by a further -8%, week on week (WoW), in week 37 (8 to 14 September) after falling by -12% and -11%, respectively, in the previous two weeks. Those decreases follow a +28% spike in week 34 ahead of the imposition by the USA of new 50% ‘reciprocal’ tariffs from 27 August on goods imported from India.
The latest declines in week 37 take weekly tonnages from India to the USA to -14% below their average of the last three months. In comparison, air cargo volumes from India to Europe rose steadily in weeks 34 to 36, taking them +2% higher than in week 36 last year, although they dipped slightly (-1%, WoW) in week 37.
Source: WorldACD
India to USA air cargo tonnages had generally been up, year on year (YoY), in recent months, in part due to pressure on US importers to seek alternatives to Chinese suppliers. But in the first two weeks of September, under the new tariff regime, India to USA air cargo tonnages have been down compared with the equivalent weeks last year, by -13% and -10%, YoY, respectively. Since around April, India to Europe tonnages have mostly been higher, YoY, although that gap with last year has narrowed somewhat in the last two months.
Within that Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origin region, Dubai has also seen a drop in tonnages to the USA in the last four weeks, with chargeable weight in week 37 down by more than one third (-37%) compared with the average level in July and August. That figure in week 37 may have been negatively affected by the Mawlid holiday, although Dubai to Europe tonnages have proven much more resilient in recent weeks than Dubai to USA volumes, including in week 37, however still at -17%, YoY.
Global and regional perspectives
On a worldwide basis, global tonnages bounced back with +2% WoW growth in week 37, with declines from MESA origins (-4%, WoW) more than offset by a +11% WoW rebound from North America origins – following the Labor Day public holiday in the USA on 1 September – and WoW increases from Asia Pacific origins (+2%, WoW).
Following the volatility seen for much of this year, China and Hong Kong to USA markets have settled down in recent weeks. China and Hong Kong to USA tonnages are around -8% below their equivalent level this time last year, with average spot rates of US$4.58 per kilo being around -14% below last year’s equivalent levels. Meanwhile, during the same period, tonnages from China and Hong Kong to Europe have been consistently higher, by around +8%, with average spot rates of $4.21 per kilo, around -4% below last year’s levels.
Source: WorldACD
END
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