【观察者】航空物流每周市场动态（第215期）

美、德消费者信心指数下滑

美国密歇根大学10月消费者信心指数终值录得48，较9月的48.1小幅回落，触及五个月低点，主要受通胀引发的高物价影响。

德国11月Gfk消费者信心指数为-30.8、环比下降0.2，主要因伊朗战争引发的能源成本上涨持续加重家庭财务压力。

一周货机航线动态

11月1日，中州航空开通嘉兴-东京成田、嘉兴-大阪关西两条全货机航线，由B737F执飞，每周各5班，主要运载跨境电商、精密电子及高附加值货物。

10月29日，卡利塔航空（Kalitta Air）开通宁波-墨西哥城全货机航线，由B747F执飞，主要运载跨境电商货物。

来源：浙江日报、宁波海关

土耳其航空引进两架B777-300ERSF全货机

日前，土耳其航空与全球最大飞机租赁商AerCap签署租赁协议，将引进两架由B777-300ER客机改装而来的B777-300ERSF全货机（P2F），预计交付窗口为2027年3月至9月。

据AerCap透露，这两架飞机将由以色列航空航天工业公司（IAI）提供改装方案，并在阿布扎比的阿提哈德工程MRO中心完成改装。这两架新货机到位后，将与土耳其航空现有的12架B777F共同构成其远程货运主力机队。

来源：全球航空货运

极兔速递揭阳转运中心投运

10月30日，极兔速递揭阳转运中心正式投运。项目位于揭阳市揭东区玉滘镇中德生态金属城，是极兔在粤东区域规模最大的智能物流项目。

中心单日最大快件处理能力可达1000万单，日均操作量约700万件，为旺季保障和粤东区域物流服务能力提升提供支撑，并将重点支持潮汕及粤东地区纺织服装、玩具、食品、五金等特色产业集群的电商发展。

来源：极兔

京东物流首个海鲜产地冷链仓投用

10月26日，京东物流首个海鲜产地冷链仓在广东阳江正式开仓投用。园区占地面积超5万平方米，其中包括3万平方米的多温区冷库和7000平方米的常温仓库。

仓库靠近渔港码头，提供产地预冷、分拣打包、一件代发、冷链运输等一体化供应链服务，降低货品损耗和物流成本的同时提升品控。

来源：京东物流

越秀智造和顺丰广州首条无人物流航线正式通航

近日，越秀智造和顺丰广州首条无人物流航线正式通航，这条专线往返番禺化龙与南沙IFC，主要承担民生物资配送、急件转运、医药冷链运输等功能。

专线投入方舟ARK40、方舟ARK80、丰舟FZ90三款主力机型，最大载重30公斤，飞行真高控制在250米（含）以下，并与沿线各类障碍物保持80米以上安全距离，确保飞行合规与运行安全。

来源：越秀智造

Boeing predicts freighter fleet will exceed 4,000 aircraft in 2045

波音预计，受年均空运需求增长3.5%推动，到2045年全球货机机队总数将从2025年的2395架增长67%至超过4000架，超过空客此前发布的预测。

At the TIACA Air Cargo Forum taking place this week, Boeing said it expects freighter fleet requirements to be driven by a 3.5% average annual increase in air cargo demand. This compares with an average annual growth rate of 2.5% over the past 10 years.

The extra annual growth will be fueled by time-sensitive shipments for advanced manufacturing and AI hardware, diversifying supply chains and rising e-commerce volumes as carriers adapt route networks to shifting trade lanes and manage geopolitical disruptions, the aircraft manufacturer said.

Last year, cargo demand was up by more than 5%, Boeing pointed out. As a result, Boeing’s World Air Cargo Forecast suggests the worldwide freighter fleet will increase 67% by 2045 from 2,395 in 2025 to 4,010 in 20 years’ time.

About 55% of deliveries will add capacity; approximately 45% will replace older, less efficient freighters. Two-thirds of deliveries will be converted passenger aeroplanes (2,000) and the remainder will be new-production freighters (930). Standard body freighters will make up 1,140 of the freighters delivered, medium-widebody is next with 915 and large widebody will make up 875 of the extra cargo aircraft.

Last week, Airbus said it expects the worldwide fleet of dedicated freighter aircraft to increase by 46% from 2,360 in 2026 to 3,460 aircraft by 2045.

来源：Air Cargo News

AI air cargo growth moderation expected

空运咨询及数据公司Rotate表示，2025年亚太地区的云计算相关货源出口增长了三倍，然而需求增长此后有所放缓，2026年4月云计算货源总量达到接近10万吨的峰值，但截至8月月度总量降至约8.5万吨。

Speaking at the Air Cargo Forum in Miami, Ryan Keyrouse, chief executive of the air cargo consultancy and data firm Rotate, said that cloud computing exports from Asia Pacific tripled in 2025. However, demand and growth have since slowed and normalised. Monthly demand growth for this vertical began steadily rising in January 2025 and peaked at around 10% in the middle of last year but has since slowed.

Meanwhile, total monthly cloud computing volumes peaked at just under 100,000 tonnes in April 2026, but as of August, the monthly total had fallen to around 85,000 tonnes. Kerouse said that there is a strong correlation between AI investment and air cargo volumes, but he questioned whether the recent slowdown in AI-related air cargo volumes means this correlation is beginning to weaken.

Keyrouse said several people in the air cargo industry had raised whether “regulatory, capacity and energy issues” would contribute to a slowdown in the AI-market. While these question marks hang over the market, a survey carried out by Rotate shows that overall, the air cargo market remains positive for the outlook of AI-related volumes, even if the rate of growth does come down.

来源：Air Cargo News