吉利9月出口10.67万辆，新能源出口涨403%

Geely's September exports hit 106,685 — NEV exports up 403%

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吉利9月卖了292,168辆车，同比涨7%，单看这个数没什么惊喜。我一直觉得，中国车企出海讲到今天，只报「卖了多少辆」已经不够了——得看出口里有多少是电车、有多少是在当地造出来的。吉利9月出口106,685辆、同比涨162%，其中新能源出口73,664辆、同比涨403%，占出口的69%。这个比例比总量更值得看。

Geely sold 292,168 vehicles in September, up 7% year on year — on its own, no surprise there. I have long felt that for Chinese carmakers going abroad, reporting how many units shipped is no longer enough; the numbers that matter are how much of that export volume is electric and how much is built locally. Geely's September exports were 106,685 units, up 162%, of which 73,664 were new-energy vehicles, up 403% and equal to 69% of the total. That ratio tells you more than the headline volume.

出口的成分这两年一直在挪。9月新能源出口73,664辆，同比涨403%，是总出口增速162%的两倍半。前三季度合起来更清楚：出口797,670辆、涨169%，新能源出口484,086辆、涨531%，新能源占出口的比重从去年的约26%升到61%——去年的份额是我按涨幅倒推的。我的判断是，吉利这条出口线已经靠电车在扛，燃油车更多是守基本盘。

The mix inside those exports has been shifting for two years now. September's NEV exports were 73,664 units, up 403% — two and a half times the 162% growth of total exports. The nine-month picture is clearer: exports of 797,670 units, up 169%, with NEV exports at 484,086, up 531%, lifting new energy's share of exports from about 26% last year to 61%. That 26% is my own back-calculation from the growth rate. My read is that Geely's export line is now carried by EVs, with combustion models defending the home base. The shift is moving faster than most people assume.

国内那条线得拆着看。公告没有单列国内，我用总销量减出口倒推，9月国内约185,483辆、同比降两成。同期纯电12.5万辆、涨26%，插混6.6万辆、与去年持平，新能源在国内的渗透率65.3%。国内在换结构：燃油基盘没塌，可也没增量，增量全压在银河和极氪这些新能源牌子身上。

The domestic line needs to be taken apart. The announcement does not break out domestic sales, so I subtracted exports from the total: roughly 185,483 units in September, down about 20% year on year. In the same month, battery-electric sales reached 125,000, up 26%; plug-in hybrids were 66,000, flat year on year; and NEV penetration at home hit 65.3%. The domestic market is changing its mix: the combustion base hasn't collapsed, but it adds nothing, and all the growth sits on new-energy brands like Galaxy and Zeekr.

集团内部的品牌换血，比出口数字更值得盯。极氪9月交付37,216辆、涨104%，前三季度累计288,404辆、涨101%；领克18,493辆、跌44%。同样主打中高端，一条腿在冲、一条腿在退。领克正处在新旧车型切换的低谷，9月28日上市的领克20一小时大定14,633辆，那是下一段的事。我给领克的判断是，它想在欧洲站住，得先换掉手里的渠道。

The reshuffle inside the group deserves more attention than the export number. Zeekr delivered 37,216 units in September, up 104%, taking its nine-month total to 288,404, up 101%; Lynk & Co sold 18,493, down 44%. Both target the upper-middle segment, yet one leg is surging and the other is retreating. Lynk & Co is in the trough of a model changeover; the Lynk 20 launched on September 28 drew 14,633 firm orders in its first hour, but that belongs to the next chapter. My read on Lynk & Co is that if it wants a foothold in Europe, it has to replace the channel it holds today.

吉利正在把「整车出口」换成「本地造加本地渠道」，这一步比多卖几万辆重要。巴西工厂的银河星舰7已经本地投产；极氪9X开始大批量发运中东；沃尔沃从2027年起接管领克在欧洲的经销渠道；马来西亚的宝腾9月卖了20,569辆、涨43%。巴西和泰国是造车，中东和欧洲是渠道，两头的活都得自己干。

Geely is converting "whole-vehicle exports" into "local manufacturing plus local channels," and that step matters more than another ten thousand units. The Galaxy Starship 7 is already in local production at its Brazil plant; the Zeekr 9X is shipping to the Middle East in volume; Volvo will take over Lynk & Co's distribution in Europe from 2027; and Proton in Malaysia sold 20,569 units in September, up 43%. Brazil and Thailand are about making cars, the Middle East and Europe about channels — and Geely has to do both ends itself.

把终端数据摊开，海外的增量压在拉美和亚太。按MarkLines口径（不含沃尔沃），吉利8月海外终端47,562辆、涨48.1%：拉美13,829辆、涨330.8%，其中巴西7,151辆、墨西哥4,588辆；亚太12,332辆、涨644.2%，澳洲6,813辆、泰国2,970辆、印尼2,158辆。极氪009在泰国和马来西亚连续多月是纯电MPV销冠。这份口径里欧洲的量级没单独列出来。做渠道的人最清楚，吉利现在的海外盘子重头在拉美和东南亚——这一条值得转给手上管这两块的人。

Spread the retail data out and the overseas growth sits in Latin America and Asia-Pacific. On MarkLines' count, excluding Volvo, Geely's August overseas retail sales were 47,562 units, up 48.1%: Latin America at 13,829, up 330.8%, including 7,151 in Brazil and 4,588 in Mexico; Asia-Pacific at 12,332, up 644.2%, including 6,813 in Australia, 2,970 in Thailand and 2,158 in Indonesia. The Zeekr 009 has been the best-selling battery-electric MPV in Thailand and Malaysia for months. Europe's scale is not broken out in this dataset. Anyone running channel knows that Geely's overseas weight now rests on Latin America and Southeast Asia — worth forwarding to whoever handles those two regions for you.

说两个我觉得可能错的地方。9月出口环比降了3.1%，连续8个月的出口新高断了；162%这个增速里，去年的低基数占了一部分。如果10月出口继续环比回落，「体系出海」这条线就得重新掂量。我先把它当成一次体检，结论得等10月的数据。我盯的信号只有一个：巴西工厂的本地产量，还有沃尔沃接手领克欧洲渠道的落地节奏。

Two things I could be wrong about. Exports fell 3.1% month on month in September, ending eight straight months of record overseas volume, and part of that 162% comes from a low base last year. If October exports slip again sequentially, the "systemic going-abroad" story needs re-weighing. I'm treating it as a check-up for now; the verdict waits on October's numbers. The signal I'm watching is narrow: local output at the Brazil plant, and the pace at which Volvo actually takes over Lynk & Co's European channel.

最后留个问题。如果你在拉美或东南亚做渠道，吉利这波量是价格换来的，还是渠道一层层铺出来的？这两个答案指向完全不同的后续——前者等价格战收场就会掉，后者能留下来。把这篇转给做拉美、东南亚渠道的朋友，他们的一线答案比任何一份榜单都准。

One question to close on. If you run channel in Latin America or Southeast Asia: is Geely's volume here bought with price, or built channel by channel? Those two answers lead to very different futures — the first disappears when the price war ends, the second stays. Forward this to friends who run channels in Latin America or Southeast Asia; their answer from the ground beats any ranking.

#汽车出海#  #中国车企出海#  #新能源车出海#  #吉利汽车#  #极氪#  #领克#  #马来西亚市场#

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