2026年，中国高端汽车市场的气氛正在发生微妙变化。一边是国产品牌信心高涨，频频抛出激进目标；另一边，奔驰、宝马却显得异常冷静，甚至保守。
In 2026, China’s premium auto market is entering a subtle but critical transition. Domestic brands are full of confidence, while Mercedes-Benz and BMW remain cautious—even conservative.
36氪从多家供应链渠道获悉，奔驰、宝马已向国内供应链给出2026年初步需求预测。多位业内人士透露，两家品牌在华国产车型的全年预估销量，均不足50万辆，几乎回到了十年前的水平。
According to multiple supply chain sources, both Mercedes-Benz and BMW have issued preliminary 2026 demand forecasts in China. Estimated annual sales of locally produced models are below 500,000 units—almost back to levels seen a decade ago.
相比之下，中国高端品牌的目标显得极为激进。多家国产品牌给出的销量增长预期高达40%–50%，整体销量目标约46万辆。
In contrast, Chinese premium brands are far more aggressive, targeting 40%–50% growth and total sales of around 460,000 units.
小米汽车将2026年销量目标定在55万辆，同比增长34%；鸿蒙智行的目标更为夸张，预计销量100万至130万辆，年增速高达120%。
Xiaomi Auto targets 550,000 units in 2026, a 34% YoY increase. Harmony Intelligent Mobility goes even further, projecting 1–1.3 million units—an astonishing 120% growth.
激进目标的背后，是国产品牌在高端市场已取得实质性突破。尊界S800起售价70.8万元，2025年12月单月交付超过4000辆，成为国产豪华向上的重要标志。
Behind these bold targets lies real progress. The Zunjie S800, priced from RMB 708,000, delivered over 4,000 units in December 2025 alone—marking a milestone for domestic luxury brands.
而德系豪华品牌，则显得更加冷静。2025年，奔驰在华交付55.19万辆，同比下滑19%；宝马交付62.55万辆，同比下降12.5%。两家企业在中国市场的销量，已连续两年下滑超过12%。
German luxury brands remain cautious. In 2025, Mercedes-Benz delivered 551,900 vehicles in China, down 19% YoY; BMW delivered 625,500 units, down 12.5%. Both have seen declines exceeding 12% for two consecutive years.
即便在2026年，奔驰与宝马的新车计划依然密集。奔驰将推出15款改款与新品，包括国产长轴距纯电SUV；宝马则计划引入新世代iX3及20余款新车。
Even in 2026, product offensives continue. Mercedes plans over 15 new and updated models, including locally produced long-wheelbase EV SUVs. BMW will introduce the next-gen iX3 and more than 20 new products.
但在市场判断上，BBA显然保持清醒：燃油车仍是基本盘，而国产品牌正凭借电动化，对高端市场发动正面进攻。
Yet strategically, BBA remain clear-eyed: ICE vehicles are still their core, while Chinese brands are attacking the premium segment through electrification.
2025年，中国新能源车渗透率首次突破50%分水岭，12月单月更是达到59.1%。业内普遍预测，2026年这一数字将超过60%，新能源将真正成为市场主导。
In 2025, NEV penetration in China surpassed the 50% tipping point, hitting 59.1% in December. Industry forecasts suggest it will exceed 60% in 2026—marking a new era dominated by electrification.
然而，BBA的电动化转型并未同步提速。奔驰全新纯电CLA续航超860公里，搭载与Momenta联合开发的辅助驾驶系统，但上市后累计销量仅1369辆，纯电车型占比不足5%。
Yet BBA’s EV transition lags behind. Mercedes’ all-new electric CLA offers over 860 km of range and advanced ADAS, but total sales reached only 1,369 units, with EVs accounting for less than 5% of China sales.
宝马的表现稍好，2025年纯电销量达5.3万辆，但在品牌整体中占比仍不足10%。同时，i3成交价一度跌破20万元，品牌溢价与盈利能力承压。
BMW performed slightly better, selling 53,000 EVs in 2025, still under 10% of total sales. Meanwhile, heavy discounts on models like the i3 have pressured brand premium and profitability.
与此同时，国产高端品牌正在多个价格带形成“合围”。尊界S800在70万级市场快速放量；50万价位，问界M9连续两年销量破10万辆；35万–45万元区间，问界M8销量已超15万辆，正面超越奔驰GLC、宝马X3。
Meanwhile, domestic brands are encircling the premium market across price bands. Zunjie S800 dominates the RMB 700k segment; AITO M9 leads the RMB 500k range; and the M8 has surpassed 150,000 units, outperforming GLC and X3 rivals.
2026年的竞争，将进一步升级。续航方面，小米CU7 Pro版CLTC续航达902公里，刷新中大型纯电轿车纪录；增程车型纯电使用里程已提升至500公里。
Competition will intensify in 2026. Xiaomi’s CU7 Pro reaches 902 km CLTC range, setting new records, while extended-range EVs push electric-only usage beyond 500 km.
在智能驾驶领域，多家车企已启动L3级测试，小鹏新一代芯片甚至具备初阶L4能力。以世界模型为核心的AI能力，正在成为新的决胜点。
In intelligent driving, multiple OEMs have entered L3 testing. XPeng’s latest chips already support early-stage L4 capabilities. AI powered by world models is emerging as the next battleground.
单靠降价，或“补课式”推出电动车，已难以应对国产品牌在产品、技术、体系上的系统性冲击。对BBA而言，这不仅是一场转型，更是一场残酷的份额保卫战。
Price cuts or rushed EV launches are no longer enough. Facing systemic challenges in product, technology, and ecosystem, BBA are fighting not just a transition—but a brutal battle for market share.
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