特斯拉Q3交付48.7万，美国少了三成

Tesla delivered 487,000 vehicles in Q3 — while U.S. sales fell a third

全文约 1150 字，读完约 6 分钟
About 1150 Chinese characters, a 6-minute read

10月2日晚上特斯拉交出三季度成绩单：交付48.65万辆，比分析师预期多了两万多辆。我的第一反应没有落在“回暖”这两个字上——撑住这个数字的主力是上海超级工厂。前8个月它出口33.14万辆、同比翻了一倍多；同一时期特斯拉在美国的销量少了三成，中国国内零售连续三个月同比下滑。

On the evening of October 2 Tesla reported its third-quarter numbers: 486,500 vehicles delivered, more than 20,000 above what analysts expected. My first reaction did not land on the word “recovery.” What held that number up was Giga Shanghai: it exported 331,400 vehicles in the first eight months, more than double a year earlier, while Tesla’s U.S. sales fell by a third over the same stretch and its China retail sales slid year on year for three months running.

交付数本身没那么好看。486,532辆比去年同期少2.1%，去年三季度的497,099辆是历史纪录，因为美国买家赶在2025年9月30日7,500美元联邦补贴到期前抢了一波车；环比只多了1.3%。Model 3和Model Y两款车占98.3%，其他车型合计8,295辆。当季生产464,391辆，比交付少22,141辆——连续两个季度交付大于生产，库存在往外倒。

The headline delivery number itself is thinner than it looks. The 486,532 vehicles were 2.1% below the year-earlier 497,099, a record set when U.S. buyers rushed to claim the $7,500 federal credit before it expired on September 30, 2025; the sequential gain was just 1.3%. Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 98.3% of deliveries, with all other models at 8,295. Output was 464,391 — 22,141 fewer than deliveries, the second straight quarter of drawing inventory down.

美国这条线我最想让人看清。Cox Automotive估算，特斯拉三季度在美国卖了123,880辆、同比少31%，前三季度累计365,980辆、同比少18.9%。联邦补贴一停，需求就现了原形；车型更新慢、马斯克的政治立场，都是叠在上面的第二层原因。

The U.S. line is the one I most want people to see clearly. Cox Automotive estimates Tesla sold 123,880 vehicles there in the third quarter, down 31% year on year, and 365,980 over the first nine months, down 18.9%. Once the federal credit stopped, demand showed its true level; an ageing line-up and Musk’s politics sit on top of that.

中国这边的分工在变。乘联分会口径，8月上海工厂交付超8.6万辆、连续第10个月同比增长，其中3.61万辆直接出口、同比增38.71%，国内零售只有5.00万辆、同比降12.43%。1-8月摊开更清楚：上海工厂批发约64.77万辆、同比增25.6%，出口33.14万辆、同比增115%，出口已占批发量的51.17%，去年同期这个比例是29.94%。国内零售同期约31.63万辆、同比降12.4%，6月到8月连续三个月同比下滑，降幅13.9%、32.9%、12.4%。做海外渠道或货代的，把这组数存下来——下半年上海港的滚装船排期，比国内订单节奏更能说明这座工厂在忙什么。

The division of labour inside China is shifting. On CPCA figures, Giga Shanghai delivered more than 86,000 vehicles in August, its tenth straight month of year-on-year growth, and 36,100 of those went straight to export, up 38.71%; domestic retail was only 50,000, down 12.43%. The first eight months make it plainer: wholesale of about 647,700, up 25.6%, of which 331,400 were exports, up 115% — 51.17% of wholesale, against 29.94% a year earlier. Domestic retail was about 316,300, down 12.4%, falling year on year for three months running in June, July and August, by 13.9%, 32.9% and 12.4%. If you run overseas channels or freight, save these numbers: ro-ro schedules out of Shanghai this half will tell you more about what the plant is doing than domestic order flow does.

让价也没把国内的盘子拉回来。9月7日和9月25日，特斯拉中国不到三周两次推出限时优惠，Model 3全系尾款减5,000元，Model Y部分车型减7,000元。我倾向于把两次让利读成订单压力：产能吃紧的时候，没有人会主动降价。

Discounting has not pulled the domestic business back either. On September 7 and again on September 25, less than three weeks apart, Tesla China rolled out limited-time offers: 5,000 yuan off the balance on all Model 3s and 7,000 yuan on some Model Ys. I read the two rounds as order pressure: nobody cuts price when capacity is tight.

增量在欧洲。ACEA数据，8月特斯拉在欧盟注册12,547辆、同比增52.7%，前8个月累计142,165辆、同比增65.9%；欧盟加英国和EFTA口径，前8个月增43.3%，跑在当地纯电大盘38.8%的前面。9月法国、瑞典、西班牙注册量分别同比增61.9%、38.4%、24.8%。这些车大部分在上海造。

The growth is in Europe. ACEA data show 12,547 Tesla registrations in the EU in August, up 52.7%, and 142,165 over the first eight months, up 65.9%; across the EU plus the UK and EFTA, registrations rose 43.3% in the first eight months, ahead of the 38.8% for the local battery-electric market. In September, registrations in France, Sweden and Spain rose 61.9%, 38.4% and 24.8%. Most of those cars are built in Shanghai.

我的判断是，特斯拉在中国的角色已经从消费市场换成制造和出口基地，这条线现在绑得很紧。出口翻倍，意味着上海工厂的产能利用率靠海外订单兜着；欧盟的贸易工具或者出口许可节奏一变，这个兜底就松一道口子。10月1日商务部启动2027年度汽车和摩托车出口许可申报，这条通知做出口的都该点开看一遍。

My read: Tesla’s role in China has shifted from a market it sells into to a base that builds and exports, and that line is now tightly strung. Doubling exports means Giga Shanghai’s utilisation rests on overseas orders; move the EU’s trade tools or the export-licence schedule and the cushion loosens. On October 1 the Ministry of Commerce opened 2027 applications for vehicle and motorcycle export licences — anyone shipping cars out should read that notice.

我可能错在哪儿，也说清楚：欧洲这波有低基数的成分。去年特斯拉在欧洲被马斯克的政治立场拖累过，前8个月65.9%的增幅里有不小一块是把丢掉的位置补回来。分析师普遍预期2027年欧洲增速会放缓，中国品牌和欧洲本土新车型都会往里挤。要验证这条线，我盯一个数：上海工厂四季度出口占批发量的比例，还能不能守在50%以上。

Where I could be wrong, plainly: part of Europe’s jump is a low base. Tesla was dragged down in Europe last year by Musk’s politics, and a decent chunk of that 65.9% is simply winning back lost ground. Analysts broadly expect European growth to slow in 2027 as Chinese brands and new European models pile in. To test the thesis I will watch one number: whether Giga Shanghai’s exports stay above 50% of its wholesale volume in the fourth quarter.

留个问题给你：如果你的目标市场里，某个品牌的车一半以上是从第三国工厂运进来的，你把它算本地车企，还是算进口商？评论区说说你的判断。

One question for you: in your target market, if more than half of a brand’s cars arrive from a plant in a third country, do you count it as a local automaker or as an importer? Tell me in the comments.

#汽车出海#  #中国车企出海#  #新能源车出海#  #特斯拉#  #上海超级工厂#  #美国汽车市场#  #汽车出口#

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