名爵哈弗捷途长安同进沙特前十，丰田跌60%

Four Chinese brands enter Saudi Arabia's top 10 — as Toyota falls 60%

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沙特自己就是产油国，油价涨对它算不上坏事。可它去年进口的电动车只有1,386辆，前一年是178辆——一年翻了将近七倍。沙特媒体Aleqtisadiah援引的这组数里，中国车占电动车进口的份额从50%升到89.3%，今年前五个月超过99%。我第一反应是这数字太干净了，干净到不像市场竞争自然长出来的结果。

Saudi Arabia is an oil producer, so high fuel prices are no bad news for it. Yet its EV imports went from 178 cars in 2024 to 1,386 in 2025 — nearly seven times more in a single year. In that set of figures, cited from Saudi outlet Aleqtisadiah, China's share of EV imports rose from 50% to 89.3%, and topped 99% in the first five months of 2026. My first reaction was that the number looks too clean — too clean to be the ordinary outcome of competition.

往上一层看，变化是实打实的。今年上半年沙特新车卖了约41万辆，同比增6.2%；中国品牌占13.4%，另一套口径算到14.11%，2025年全年只有10.6%。名爵、哈弗、捷途、长安四家中国品牌第一次同时进当地销量前十——上半年分别约1.76万、1.48万、1.15万和1.11万辆。日系合计还有40.9%，韩系21.4%，底盘没塌，前十的座位被换掉了。

One level up, the shift is real. Saudi Arabia sold about 410,000 new cars in the first half of 2026, up 6.2% year on year. Chinese brands took 13.4% of that, and another count puts them at 14.11%, against 10.6% for all of 2025. MG, Haval, Jetour and Changan entered the local top ten at the same time for the first time, with roughly 17,600, 14,800, 11,500 and 11,100 units in the half. Japanese brands still hold 40.9% and Korean brands 21.4%. The base has not collapsed — the seats in the top ten have been reassigned.

7月那一个月更戏剧。按Best Selling Cars Blog的月度榜，丰田单月同比跌60.6%，起亚跌53.1%；名爵涨63.6%，哈弗涨51%，比亚迪第一次挤进品牌前十、份额3.1%，而上半年它还只占1%、排第18。车型层面，名爵5从6月的第28位冲到第3位，单月涨509.8%，凯美瑞跌79%、掉到第13。

July was more dramatic still. On Best Selling Cars Blog's monthly ranking, Toyota's volume fell 60.6% year on year and Kia 53.1%. MG rose 63.6%, Haval 51%, and BYD broke into the brand top ten with a 3.1% share — in the first half it held just 1% and ranked 18th. At model level, the MG 5 jumped from 28th in June to 3rd, up 509.8% in one month, while the Camry fell 79% to 13th.

这里得把口径说清楚。沙特没有官方月度品牌销量，上面这些全是私人研究机构的口径，彼此还对不上：Focus2move说1到7月沙特卖了38.03万辆、同比跌20.3%，Best Selling Cars Blog算的是35.46万辆、跌25%，而另一套上半年数据是增6.2%。上半年涨、1到7月跌，两边不可能同时成立。我不选边，只提醒一句：谁拿单月榜讲趋势，谁就是在讲一个自己也没把握的故事。

A note on definitions, because they matter. Saudi Arabia publishes no official monthly brand sales. Everything above comes from private research houses, and they disagree: Focus2move puts January-to-July sales at 380,300 units, down 20.3%; Best Selling Cars Blog counts 354,600, down 25%; a separate first-half set shows growth of 6.2%. A rising first half and a falling January-to-July cannot both be true. I won't pick a side — I'd only say that anyone using one month to describe a trend is telling a story they don't fully control either.

中国车在沙特站住脚的路径，跟在欧洲不一样。沙特SUV占总销量约65%，在中国品牌里这个比例是72%。中国品牌上半年的平均成交价约10.4万沙特里亚尔（折合两万多美元），卖的是配置和尺寸，也没打算靠品牌溢价。比亚迪上半年在沙特卖4,769辆、同比涨277%，第三方统计说它在中东电动车市场占到约60%。这个60%比任何一条新闻都值钱，说明在这块板上，这个区域还没有像样的对手。

Chinese cars got a foothold in Saudi Arabia by a different route than in Europe. SUVs account for about 65% of all Saudi sales; inside Chinese-brand volumes that share is 72%. The average transaction price for Chinese brands in the first half was about 104,000 Saudi riyals, roughly US$27,000 — selling on equipment and size, without leaning on brand premium. BYD sold 4,769 units in Saudi Arabia in the first half, up 277%, and third-party counts put it at about 60% of the Middle East EV market. That 60% is worth more than any headline: on this board, in this region, there is still no serious competitor.

出口那头对得上。按中国海关口径，今年1到6月中国燃油乘用车出口沙特78,917辆，排在目的地第四位，6月单月19,275辆；上半年对沙特出口车辆及零件（HS87章）金额约26亿美元，整车前四个月同比涨68%。阿联酋是另一条腿，1到8月中国对阿联酋累计出口19.6万辆，8月单月3.01万辆。迪拜关税低、物流成熟，车发到那再分销去沙特、北非和西非，所以看沙特只看沙特会漏掉一半——这一条值得转给你们做物流的同事。

The export data lines up. On China Customs' count, fuel passenger-car exports to Saudi Arabia reached 78,917 units in January-June, fourth among destinations, with 19,275 in June alone; vehicles and parts (HS chapter 87) shipped to Saudi Arabia came to about US$2.6 billion in the first half, with complete vehicles up 68% in the first four months. The UAE is the other leg — 196,000 units cumulative through August, 30,146 in August alone. Dubai has low tariffs and mature logistics: cars land there and move on to Saudi Arabia, North Africa and West Africa. Look only at Saudi Arabia and you miss half the picture — worth forwarding to whoever runs your logistics.

风险我列三条，每一条背后都有能查到的落地动作。一是本地组装的门槛在抬：沙特在推自己的Ceer，又把Lucid放进来做本地制造，整车进口的政策红利期不会太长。二是配套，官方目标是把充电网络扩到5,000座以上，离这个数还有距离。三是航运，霍尔木兹那条线的通行不确定性还在，贸易商已经在调路径，运价和交期会跟着晃。三条里第一条最要命，它决定的是资格，后两条决定成本和节奏。

Three risks, each with visible action behind it. First, local assembly thresholds are rising: Saudi Arabia is backing its own Ceer and using Lucid for local manufacturing, and the policy dividend for complete-vehicle imports won't last long. Second, infrastructure: the official target is more than 5,000 charging stations, and the country is still some distance from it. Third, shipping: passage through Hormuz remains uncertain, traders are already rerouting, and freight rates and lead times will wobble with it. Of the three, the first matters most — it decides eligibility; the other two decide cost and tempo.

不确定的部分我也摆出来：7月日系那波集体跳水，我没有查到能解释这个幅度的原因，是渠道库存、认证切换，还是别的，我不敢替他们下结论。如果你是做海湾市场的，这里有一件具体的事我最想听你的判断——7月沙特那波下滑，你在一线看到的是需求出问题，还是供给出问题？把这篇转给手上做海湾或北非渠道的人，他们的一线感受比任何一份榜单都准。

I'll put my uncertainty on the table too: I could not find a reason that explains the scale of the Japanese brands' July plunge — channel inventory, certification switching, something else. I won't draw conclusions on their behalf. If you work the Gulf market, here is one concrete thing I want your read on: that July drop in Saudi Arabia — was what you saw on the ground a demand problem or a supply problem? Forward this to whoever handles your Gulf or North Africa channel; their first-hand read beats any ranking.

#汽车出海#  #中国车企出海#  #新能源车出海#  #沙特市场#  #中东汽车市场#  #名爵#  #哈弗#  #比亚迪#

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