全球汽油车跌破49%，比亚迪泰国纯电份额腰斩

份额在挪，盘子还在缩

全文约 1100 字，读完约 6 分钟

全球纯汽油车第一次不到一半了。Mobility Global 10月6日的数据显示，2026年上半年纯汽油车型占全球新车销量的49%，2021年这个数字还是73%。我盯着看了两遍，不太想把它读成电动化的胜利，更像油价把人踹过去的——中东和东欧两条战线把原油顶上去，不少车主换电车，理由就是加不起油。

For the first time, petrol-only cars fall below half. Mobility Global data of 6 Oct shows petrol-only models made up 49% of global new-car sales in H1 2026; in 2021 the figure was 73%. I read it twice and would not call it an EV victory - it looks more like crude oil kicking drivers out: the Middle East and Eastern Europe pushed oil prices up, and many owners swapped to EVs because refuelling stopped adding up.

更该看分母。上半年全球汽车市场整体收缩约5%，纯汽油车销量却掉了10%，跌幅是大盘的两倍。份额的挪动很大一部分来自燃油车自己塌方，不是别家多卖了多少。一年之内，纯汽油车的全球份额从52%掉到49%。

Look at the denominator. The global auto market shrank about 5% in H1, but petrol-only volume fell 10% - twice the overall decline. Much of the share shift came from fossil vehicles collapsing, not rivals selling more. In a year, the petrol-only global share dropped from 52% to 49%.

先看分母

分地区看，中国汽油车销量同比降26%、全球降幅之首，欧洲降13%。把中国这26%记到油价头上，账算不通——中东油价再高，也高不出国内充电和购置成本的差距，中国的油车下滑是电动化替代；欧洲那13%里，油价才排得上因素。

By region, China petrol sales fell 26% y/y, the largest drop globally, Europe -13%. Blaming China's 26% on oil prices does not add up - no Middle East price spike explains the gap between home charging cost and purchase cost; in China the decline is EV substitution. In Europe's 13%, oil price is a real factor.

最能看清这轮替代的是澳大利亚。FCAI 与电动汽车委员会10月6日的9月注册数据：纯电26287辆、同比增117.7%，占新车市场24.2%，去年同期只有11.3%。同月汽油车销量掉36.2%、柴油车掉18.4%。

Australia shows this substitution most clearly. FCAI and EV Council 6 Oct data for September: BEV registrations 26,287, +117.7% y/y, 24.2% of the new-car market versus 11.3% a year earlier. In the same month petrol sales fell 36.2% and diesel 18.4%.

接住这块增量的是中系品牌。9月澳洲新车原产地统计里，中国占35.5%，日本22.5%。比亚迪8191辆、连续五个月第二，前头只剩丰田；吉利4473辆、同比增870%，奇瑞系也进了前列。

The incremental share is being captured by Chinese brands. In September's origin-of-supply tally, China was 35.5% of the Australian new-car mix, Japan 22.5%. BYD 8,191, second for a fifth straight month with only Toyota ahead; Geely 4,473, +870% y/y; Chery names also cracked the front ranks.

但市场变大，站头排的不一定跟着变大。泰国陆运厅数据值得细看：纯电乘用车新注册量，2025年前七个月67184辆，2026年同期126439辆、同比增88.2%，盘子差不多翻倍。同期比亚迪和腾势合计注册量从约2.49万辆降到约2.44万辆，份额从37.0%掉到19.3%，奇瑞系拿到18.5%。7月单月，泰国纯电乘用车注册前三已是吉利系、Chery系和上汽MG。

But the pie growing does not mean the leader grows with it. Thailand's transport data is worth a close read: BEV passenger-car registrations 67,184 in the first seven months of 2025, 126,439 in 2026 for the same period, +88.2% y/y, roughly doubled. Over the same span BYD and Denza combined registrations slipped from about 24,900 to about 24,400, share from 37.0% to 19.3%; the Chery family took 18.5%. For July alone, Thailand's BEV registration top three was the Geely family, the Chery family and SAIC MG.

这就是我最想说的一句：出海这轮，市场扩容的红利期在收尾。前两年靠一款车吃下整国纯电市场的窗口关上了，泰国纯电一年多出来的五万多辆，没进先入者的口袋。早早在当地建厂、拿政策优惠、把品牌先立起来的那家，现在反过来成了后来者的坐标系。

This is the point I most want to make: in this round of going overseas, the window of market-expansion dividends is closing. The door that let one model sweep a whole country's EV market in the past two years is shut; Thailand's 50,000+ extra BEVs over the year did not land in the first-mover's pocket. The one that built local plants, grabbed policy perks and stood up the brand earliest now acts as the benchmark for the latecomers.

市场变大，头部不跟着变大

另一头在跌。10月6日花旗把梅赛德斯-奔驰目标价从51欧元下调到42欧元，杰富瑞把宝马从70欧元下调到60欧元。欧洲电动化投入排前两位的两家，纯电销量在涨，卖方给的估值在掉。油价能推高电动车的吸引力，也会推高通胀和利率，先把欧洲消费者手里那点可支配收入吃掉。

On the other side, prices are being marked down. On 6 Oct Citi cut Mercedes-Benz's target from 51 to 42 euros; Jefferies cut BMW from 70 to 60. The two with the heaviest European EV spend: BEV sales up, sell-side valuations down. Oil prices can raise EV appeal, but they also push up inflation and rates, first eating the disposable income of European consumers.

还有个口径得写清楚：49%说的是纯汽油，柴油、普通混动和插混都没算进去；把这些加回来，燃油动力在全球新车里依然占大头。澳洲把纯电、插混、混动合在一起是49.8%，差不多一半，这个数才是当地真正的电动化率。两组数字常被混着用，引用之前值得先对一下口径。

One caveat on the reading: 49% refers to petrol-only. Diesel, regular hybrids and PHEVs are not in it; adding them back, fossil power still holds the majority of global new cars. In Australia BEV plus PHEV plus regular hybrid comes to 49.8%, roughly half - that is the real local electrification rate. The two figures are often used interchangeably; worth checking the definition before quoting.

也有我可能看错的地方。Mobility Global 今年刚从标普全球汽车分拆独立，49%是它的统计口径，跟各国海关和协会会有出入；比亚迪份额掉到19.3%用的是前七个月泰国注册数，8、9月的新车型投放还没体现，全年未必这么难看。这条线不在电动化率到不到50%，在于扩容的增量还喂不喂得饱前几年铺下去的产能。你要做东南亚或澳洲渠道，泰国纯电份额那张表值得分享出去。留个问题：泰国纯电从一家独大变成四家分食，下一个被分掉份额的会是谁？评论区聊聊。

And where I may be wrong. Mobility Global only spun off from S&P Global Mobility this year; the 49% is its counting method and will differ from each country's customs and associations; BYD's slide to 19.3% uses the first-seven-month Thai registration base, and the new-model rollouts of Aug and Sep are not in yet, so the full year may not look that bad. The live question is not whether the electrification rate reaches 50% but whether the incremental expansion can still feed the capacity built up in prior years. If you run a channel in Southeast Asia or Australia, that Thai BEV-share table is worth forwarding. One question to leave: with Thailand's EV pie moving from one leader to four, who is the next to be chipped away at? Tell me in the comments.

#汽车出海#  #新能源车出海#  #中国车企出海#  #比亚迪#  #泰国市场#  #澳大利亚车市#  #电动车#

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