持续近两年的汽车价格战还没完全结束，但新的压力已经出现。
The two-year price war in the auto market has not fully ended, but a new pressure is already emerging.
这一次，问题不在终端市场，而在供应链。
This time, the problem is not the consumer market, but the supply chain.
储存芯片、贵金属以及部分关键原材料价格正在快速上涨。
Memory chips, precious metals, and several key materials are rising sharply in price.
对于车企来说，这意味着整车成本正在被重新计算。
For automakers, this means the cost of building each vehicle is being recalculated.
汽车企业已经开始释放信号。
Automakers have already begun sending signals.#auto
Lu Fang 表示，上游原材料价格飙升以及AI产业争夺芯片资源，都会给汽车企业带来成本压力。
Lu Fang stated that rising upstream material prices and AI’s competition for chip resources are creating cost pressure for automakers.
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这些成本最终很可能体现在终端售价上。
Eventually, these costs may appear in the final selling price of vehicles.
换句话说，如果消费者有购车计划，未来可能不会再像过去两年那样便宜。
In other words, if consumers plan to buy a car, prices may not stay as low as they were during the past two years.
部分车企已经开始面对现实。
Some automakers are already facing this reality.
Zeekr 即将在第二季度推出的
Zeekr 007 GT 将搭载新一代
NVIDIA DRIVE Thor-U 芯片。
The upcoming Zeekr 007 GT will feature the new NVIDIA DRIVE Thor-U autonomous driving chip.
同时车辆还将配备900V高压平台。
The vehicle will also adopt a 900V high-voltage architecture.
不过随着芯片价格上涨以及供应紧张，新车成本压力明显增加。
However, rising chip prices and tight supply have significantly increased costs.
市场消息显示，新车售价可能上调5000至8000元。
Market rumors suggest the price could rise by around 5,000 to 8,000 RMB.
类似情况并非个例。
This situation is not unique.
Chery 旗下高端品牌
Exeed 已经宣布部分车型涨价。
Chery’s premium brand Exeed has already raised prices for certain models.
其中
Exeed ET5 高配版本价格上调约5000元。
The higher-trim Exeed ET5 increased its official price by about 5,000 RMB.
官方给出的原因之一，同样是芯片成本上涨。
One of the main reasons cited is rising chip costs.
真正的变化来自存储芯片。
The real shift comes from memory chips.
行业机构数据显示，车规级DRAM价格在过去半年大幅上涨。
Industry data shows that automotive-grade DRAM prices have surged in the past six months.
DDR4价格累计上涨超过150%。
DDR4 prices have increased by more than 150%.
DDR5甚至上涨接近300%。
DDR5 prices have surged close to 300%.
短短几个月，汽车行业已经明显感受到压力。
Within months, the automotive industry has already felt the pressure.
多家车企高层已经公开预警。
Several auto executives have publicly warned about the issue.
William Li 表示，汽车行业正在和AI算力中心争夺芯片资源。
William Li said the auto industry is now competing with AI computing centers for chip resources.
但车企很难与AI产业的投资规模抗衡。
But automakers cannot compete with the massive investments made in AI.
AI企业动辄投入上千亿美元建设算力中心。
AI companies are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in computing infrastructure.
芯片厂商自然优先供应利润更高的市场。
Chip suppliers naturally prioritize markets with higher profit margins.
这意味着什么？
So what does this mean?
研究机构测算，仅存储芯片一项就可能让新能源汽车单车成本增加1000至3000元。
Research estimates suggest memory chips alone could increase EV costs by 1,000 to 3,000 RMB per vehicle.
对于售价10万元左右的车型来说，这几乎等于整车利润。
For vehicles priced around 100,000 RMB, that amount can equal the entire profit margin.
在价格战已经持续两年的背景下，这种压力尤为明显。
After two years of price wars, this pressure becomes even more significant.
事实上，科技公司也在面对同样的问题。
In fact, tech companies are facing the same issue.
Lei Jun 曾表示，
Xiaomi SU7 的内存成本正按季度上涨。
Lei Jun revealed that the memory cost for the Xiaomi SU7 is increasing every quarter.
单车内存成本预计增加数千元。
The memory cost per vehicle may increase by several thousand RMB.
这在过去的汽车行业几乎是难以想象的情况。
Such a situation was almost unimaginable in the past automotive industry.
与2021年的“缺芯潮”不同，这一次更像是一场资源争夺战。
Unlike the chip shortage of 2021, this time it resembles a battle for resources.
汽车产业正在和人工智能产业竞争芯片供应。
The auto industry is competing directly with the AI industry for chip supply.
而从利润角度看，AI芯片明显更具吸引力。
From a profit perspective, AI chips are far more attractive.
AI专用HBM内存的毛利率甚至超过65%。
HBM memory used for AI can reach margins above 65%.
远高于车规级芯片。
That is far higher than automotive-grade chips.
这也意味着一个现实。
This leads to a clear reality.
未来几年，芯片可能成为限制汽车行业增长的重要变量。
Memory chips may become a key constraint for the auto industry in the coming years.
如果供应持续紧张，新车价格下行空间将越来越有限。
If supply remains tight, the room for further price cuts will shrink.
甚至不排除部分车型出现小幅涨价。
Some models may even see price increases.
汽车行业的竞争正在进入新的阶段。
The auto industry is entering a new stage of competition.
过去拼的是价格、规模和产品。
In the past, competition focused on price, scale, and products.
未来，供应链和芯片资源也将成为关键胜负手。
In the future, supply chains and chip resources will also become decisive factors.
对于车企来说，这场挑战才刚刚开始。
For automakers, the challenge is only beginning.
如果你正打算买新能源车，你觉得今年车价还会继续下降吗？
If you are planning to buy an EV, do you think prices will continue to fall this year?
欢迎留言聊聊你的看法。
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
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