中国车在阿根廷卖到10%，巴西墨西哥在加税

Chinese brands hit 10% of Argentina's car market, while Brazil and Mexico raise tariffs

全文约 1150 字，读完约 5 分钟
About 1150 Chinese characters, a 5-minute read

10月2日，布宜诺斯艾利斯办了阿根廷历史上第一场中国品牌车展，吉利、奇瑞、长城、东风在内二十多个品牌到场。路透社给的数字是：今年8月，中国品牌占阿根廷轿车和轻型商用车销量的10%，去年年底这个数还只有2%——一年，五倍。我先把结论放在前面：所谓攻城略地不太成立，这更像一个没人防守的窗口，而且窗口上写着截止日期。

On October 2, Buenos Aires hosted Argentina's first-ever Chinese brand auto show, with more than twenty marques on the floor including Geely, Chery, GWM and Dongfeng. Reuters' figure: in August, Chinese brands took 10% of Argentina's passenger car and light commercial vehicle sales, up from about 2% at the end of last year — five times in a year. My conclusion up front: this is not a hard-won conquest. It is an undefended window, and the window has an expiry date printed on it.

窗口是政策开的。阿根廷今年给电动车和混动车留了最多5万辆的免关税进口额度，中国车企是最大的受益方。比亚迪2025年底才进阿根廷，现在已经是当地第九畅销的汽车品牌，而且在巴西、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔、乌拉圭都排在电动车销量第一。这条路径值得抄一遍：先用关税差把价格打下来，把车卖进去，再谈下一步。

The window is a policy. Argentina set aside tariff-free import quotas for up to 50,000 electric and hybrid vehicles this year, and Chinese makers are the biggest beneficiaries. BYD only entered Argentina in late 2025 and is already the country's ninth best-selling car brand; it also leads EV sales in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Uruguay. The path is worth copying down: use the tariff gap to cut the price, get the cars in, then talk about the next step.

同一个拉美，另外两家在关门。巴西从2024年1月就恢复了对电动和混动车型的进口税，一路往上加，到2026年7月整车进口关税已经到35%；墨西哥更狠，2025年12月29日的官方公报直接定下50%，2026年1月1日生效，针对的正是没有自贸协定的国家。数字立刻反映出来：今年上半年墨西哥从中国进口的汽车少了31.1%，只剩15.86万辆。做拉美市场的，把这两个关税数字放在一起存下来就行。

Elsewhere in Latin America, two neighbours are closing the door. Brazil reinstated import duties on EVs and hybrids in January 2024 and kept raising them — the tariff on fully built imports reached 35% by July 2026. Mexico went further: a gazette decree on December 29, 2025 set 50%, effective January 1, 2026, aimed squarely at countries without a free-trade agreement. The numbers followed immediately: in the first half of this year, Mexican imports of Chinese cars fell 31.1% to 158,600 units. If you work Latin America, just file those two tariff figures side by side.

那阿根廷为什么反着来？米莱上月接受彭博社采访时说了一句话：“阿根廷人买什么，是阿根廷人自己的事。”这话我读下来是算过账的，不只是姿态。阿根廷本土汽车工业的重心在皮卡出口，经销商协会会长贝亚托自己说，本国产业该往皮卡上使劲。中国车冲的是乘用车这个盘子，跟阿根廷真正要保的那块不撞。所以这个“开门”，本质上是没有本土利益需要挡在门口。

So why is Argentina going the other way? Milei told Bloomberg last month: “What Argentines buy is the problem of Argentines.” It sounds like a stance, but the arithmetic is already done. Argentina's domestic industry is centred on pick-up exports — the dealers' association president, Sebastián Beato, says the country should concentrate on pickups. Chinese cars hit the passenger-car segment, which is not the part Argentina actually needs to protect. The open door exists, in essence, because no domestic interest is standing in the doorway.

再看同一市场里的另一条路。本周早些时候，阿根廷政府宣布丰田将投13.4亿美元在当地建电动车工厂。中国车企在阿根廷还停在卖车阶段，丰田已经在建厂。跟谁快谁慢无关，这是两种出海方式的区别：靠免关税配额进来的份额，随时可以被下一份公报收回去；建在当地的产线，收不回去。我自己的账是这么算的——阿根廷这10%里，有多少能留到2027年，取决于有几家会真的把厂建下去。

Now look at the other road in the same market. Earlier this week the Argentine government said Toyota will invest $1.34 billion in an EV plant there. Chinese makers are still at the selling stage in Argentina; Toyota is already building. This is not about who is faster — it is the difference between two ways of going abroad. Share that comes from a tariff-free quota can be taken back by the next gazette decree; a production line built on the ground cannot. My own arithmetic: how much of Argentina's 10% is still there in 2027 depends on how many of these brands actually build something.

巴西给出的答案更清楚。35%的关税落地之后，中国车企没撤，换了个进法：从整车进口改成散件组装。巴西给CKD和SKD留了4.63亿美元的零关税配额，比亚迪和长城的巴西工厂2025年就已经投产。中国车企在巴西乘用车市场的份额，从2025年全年的9.3%涨到今年1-8月的约18%——税加上去了，份额反而涨了。做海外市场的把这条记下来：关税不改变结局，只改变进入方式。

Brazil offers the clearer answer. After the 35% tariff landed, Chinese makers did not retreat — they changed how they enter: from whole-vehicle imports to knocked-down assembly. Brazil set aside a $463 million tariff-free quota for CKD and SKD kits, and both BYD and GWM had plants running in Brazil by 2025. Chinese brands' share of Brazil's passenger-car market rose from 9.3% for all of 2025 to about 18% in January-August this year — the tax went up and so did the share. If you run an overseas market, write this down: tariffs do not change the outcome, they change the way you get in.

回到阿根廷。免关税额度是2026年的，上限5万辆；今年当地车市整体还跌了13%，盘子本身在缩。把这两个数放在一起，就知道眼下的热闹有多少是政策给的。留给你的问题：你手上那个市场，如果明天突然加上35%的关税，你是退出、改散件，还是直接把厂建过去？评论区说一个。

Back to Argentina. The tariff-free quota is a 2026 measure capped at 50,000 vehicles, and the local market is down 13% this year — the pie itself is shrinking. Put those two numbers together and you can see how much of today's buzz was handed over by policy. A question for you: in the market you run, if a 35% tariff landed tomorrow, would you exit, switch to knocked-down kits, or build the plant? Tell me in the comments.

#中国车企出海#  #阿根廷#  #巴西#  #墨西哥#  #汽车出口#  #新能源汽车#  #拉美市场#

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