上汽反超比亚迪1.5万辆，前三季销冠换人了

SAIC overtakes BYD by 15,400 units for the first three quarters of 2026

全文约 1150 字，读完约 5 分钟
About 1150 Chinese characters, a 5-minute read

10月1日，几家中国车企把前三季度的账一起摊开了。上汽集团1-9月累计销售314.7万辆，比亚迪313.16万辆——上汽反超大约1.54万辆，重新回到行业第一。这个差距占两家体量的0.5%。我先把话说清楚：动的是记分板，谈不上格局反转。

On October 1, several Chinese automakers opened their books for the first three quarters. SAIC Motor sold 3.147 million vehicles in January-September; BYD sold 3.1316 million — SAIC ahead by roughly 15,400 units, back in first place. That gap works out to about 0.5% of either company's volume. Let me say this plainly: the scoreboard moved, the landscape did not. No champion was dethroned.

先看这1.5万辆是什么量级。两家都在300万辆的盘子上跑，1.54万辆差不多是四天的销量。把它当成“比亚迪跌落神坛”来读，是自媒体在给自己找标题。真正值得看的是这两家公司今年遇到的问题是相反的。

Start with the scale of that 15,400. Both companies are running on a base of about 3 million vehicles; 15,400 is roughly four days of sales. Reading it as BYD falling from grace is a headline someone built for themselves. What actually matters is that the two companies are facing opposite problems this year.

上汽这一侧，答案写在海外。9月海外销售15万辆、同比涨49.1%，1-9月累计116.6万辆、同比涨52.4%——这个增速是集团整体增速的好几倍，说明增长几乎全部来自海外。新能源1-9月138.8万辆、同比28.2%，9月单月22.5万辆创了历史纪录。自主品牌1-9月230.3万辆，占集团总销量73.2%。最能说明问题的是MG：1-9月在欧洲卖了超过28万辆，同比涨23%。

For SAIC, the answer is overseas. It sold 150,000 vehicles abroad in September, up 49.1%, taking the nine-month total to 1.166 million, up 52.4% — several times the group's overall growth rate, which means almost all of the growth came from outside China. New energy volume reached 1.388 million in the nine months, up 28.2%, with September's 225,000 setting a company record. Its own brands sold 2.303 million, 73.2% of group volume. The clearest tell is MG: over 280,000 sold in Europe in nine months, up 23%.

但上汽也有自己那道算术题。要实现年度目标，最后三个月月均销量得在62万辆以上；9月它是40.6万辆。做规划的都懂这意味着什么——难的是得连着一个季度不出错。

But SAIC has arithmetic of its own to solve. To hit its annual target it needs to average more than 620,000 vehicles a month over the final quarter; in September it did 406,000. Anyone who does planning knows what that means — not impossible, but a full quarter with no missteps.

比亚迪这一侧，问题在国内。9月46.36万辆，单月仍然是行业第一没有人能追；可1-9月累计313.16万辆，同比跌了3.94%。年度目标是500万辆量级，前三季完成率不足七成。撑住它的是出口：1-9月累计出口新能源汽车约133.78万辆，占总销量超过四成；9月单月出口17.99万辆，同比涨153.9%，创了纪录。匈牙利工厂排在11月到12月投产，2027年的海外目标定在250万辆以上。

For BYD, the problem is at home. It sold 463,600 in September, still the highest single month in the industry by a wide margin; but the nine-month total of 3.1316 million is down 3.94% year on year. Against a full-year target in the 5-million range, it has completed under 70% in nine months. What holds it up is exports: about 1.3378 million new energy vehicles shipped abroad in nine months, more than 40% of total volume; September exports alone hit 179,900, up 153.9% and a record. Its Hungary plant is due to start production in the November-December window, with an overseas target of over 2.5 million for 2027.

这里必须插一句口径提醒，否则下面的排名会读错。奇瑞前三季度出口155.12万辆，比亚迪出口新能源约133.78万辆，上汽海外销售116.6万辆——三个数字口径各不相同：奇瑞的数含燃油车，比亚迪的数只算新能源，上汽的数还包括海外基地的产销量。把这三个数直接排个名，结论就是错的。我做表的时候会先把口径标在表头，这一步省不得。

One caveat on definitions, otherwise the ranking below will be misread. Chery exported 1.5512 million vehicles in the first three quarters; BYD shipped about 1.3378 million new energy vehicles; SAIC sold 1.166 million overseas. These are not the same number: Chery's includes combustion cars, BYD's counts only new energy, and SAIC's also includes output and sales from overseas plants. Rank those three side by side and the conclusion is simply wrong. When I build a table, definitions go in the header first — that step is not optional.

把三家的海外数加在一起——奇瑞155.12万、比亚迪133.78万、上汽116.6万，合计超过405万辆。这个体量的意思是，“出海”在这三家身上早已过了加分阶段，它本身就是记分牌。过去比谁在国内卖得多，现在排名靠前的，海外占比都在四成上下甚至更高。谁的海外先见顶，谁的排名就先掉。

Add the three overseas numbers together — Chery 1.5512 million, BYD 1.3378 million, SAIC 1.166 million — and you get more than 4.05 million vehicles. At that scale, going abroad is no longer a bonus item for these three; it is the scoreboard itself. The contest used to be about who sold more at home. Now, the leaders all draw roughly 40% or more of their volume from overseas. Whoever's overseas growth peaks first loses rank first.

回到开头那个1.54万辆。它可能过两个月就翻回去，也可能这一翻就是分水岭，两种可能都存在，现在下结论都太早。但有一件事是确定的：决定这个数字明年会不会再变的，是国内那两个下滑的盘子先止住，还是海外的增速先顶到天花板。这两条线我接下来每个月都会盯。你那边要是也在做出口，你更担心哪一个——海外的关税，还是国内的需求？评论区说一个。

Back to that 15,400. It could flip back within two months, or this flip could be the watershed — both are live possibilities and it is too early to call either. But one thing is settled: whether the number moves again next year depends on which comes first — the two shrinking domestic pies stabilising, or overseas growth hitting its ceiling. I will be watching both lines every month. If you are in exports too, which worries you more — tariffs abroad, or demand at home? Tell me in the comments.

#上汽集团#  #比亚迪#  #销冠易主#  #汽车出口#  #中国车企出海#  #前三季度销量#  #奇瑞#

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