俄罗斯车市涨8%，中国车份额跌回52.7%

Russia's market is up 8% — Chinese brands' share slid back to 52.7%

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About 1,100 Chinese characters · 6 min read

先把立场放前面：俄罗斯车市还在往上走，中国品牌的份额却在往回退。截至9月27日的39周，俄罗斯新车卖出约96万辆、同比涨8%，这是Autostat的口径；同一段时间里，中国自主品牌的份额从2024年下半年的六成以上、2025年的57%，掉到今年8月的52.7%，52.7%来自乘联分会崔东树。买车的总量在涨，中国车的那一份在缩。这两条线交叉的地方，就是这个市场在换规则——从“你把车卖进来”，换成“你在哪儿把车造出来”。

Let me put my position up front: the Russian market is still climbing, while Chinese brands' share is sliding back. In the 39 weeks to September 27, some 960,000 new cars were sold in Russia, up 8% year on year on Autostat's count. Over the same stretch, the share held by Chinese domestic brands fell from above 60% in the second half of 2024 and 57% in 2025 to 52.7% this August, that 52.7% coming from Cui Dongshu of the CPCA. Total demand is rising; the Chinese slice is shrinking. Where those two lines cross is where the market rewrites its rules — from "bring your cars in" to "build them where?"

总量这条线其实已经在抖。8%是39周的累计增速，Autostat负责人Tselikov在10月2日说，最近几周已经转为负增长；他预计四季度月销11万到13万辆，全年130万到135万辆，跟2025年基本持平。压住需求的是补贴退坡：10月起俄政府优惠车贷和租赁的融资停了，而这块此前撑起大约15%的销量。这份增长里有很大一块是政策推出来的，推力一撤，曲线就平。

The headline number is already wobbling. That 8% is the 39-week cumulative gain; Autostat's head Sergey Tselikov said on October 2 that recent weeks have turned negative. He expects fourth-quarter sales of 110,000 to 130,000 units a month, putting the full year at 1.3–1.35 million, roughly flat with 2025. What is holding demand down is the end of subsidies: from October, government financing for preferential car loans and leasing has stopped, and that channel had carried some 15% of sales. A large part of this growth was pushed by policy, and once the push stops the curve flattens.

中国车在俄的份额走过一条先冲后收的线。2021年初约5%，2023年突破50%，2024年下半年月度一度越过60%，2025年回到57%，今年8月剩52.7%。往回退的同一段时间里，拉达9月卖了3.23万辆，是它今年单月的新高。一个月不足以说明拉达是否翻身，但它至少说明，本地品牌正在拿回一部分被让出来的位置，而那部分位置，正是中国车过去三年吃下的。这条份额曲线，值得转给还在按前两年增速做预算的人。

Chinese brands' share in Russia has traced a rise and a pullback. It was about 5% in early 2021, crossed 50% in 2023, topped 60% in some months of the second half of 2024, came back to 57% in 2025 and sits at 52.7% this August. Over the same stretch of retreat, Lada sold 32,300 vehicles in September, its highest monthly figure this year. One month does not prove a Lada comeback, but it does show local brands clawing back part of the ground they had given up — precisely the ground Chinese cars took over the past three years. That share curve is worth forwarding to anyone still budgeting on the growth rates of the past two years.

燃料问题把新能源这条线顶了起来。俄工贸部的数：1到9月电动加插混卖了近9.9万辆、同比涨92.6%，占全部新车的9.2%，去年同期是5.1%。Autostat算到9月底，纯电加插混的份额到了11.5%，年初大约5%。有个细节容易被跳过：9月19日到25日那一周，插混占8.5%，纯电只占3%。俄罗斯人现在买的是“少用点油”，纯电要单独成立还早，极端气候、充电桩密度、城际距离，三道坎都还在。

Fuel problems have propped up the electrified line. Russia's Ministry of Industry and Trade counts nearly 99,000 electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles sold from January to September, up 92.6% year on year and equal to 9.2% of all new cars, against 5.1% a year earlier. Autostat puts the combined electric and plug-in hybrid share at 11.5% by the end of September, from about 5% at the start of the year. One detail gets skipped easily: in the week of September 19 to 25, plug-in hybrids took 8.5% and pure EVs just 3%. What Russians are buying today is "use less petrol" — battery-only cars still have a long way to go, with extreme weather, charging density and intercity distances all standing in the way.

让份额难看的另一个原因，是通道被一条条堵上。俄罗斯从2025年末起取消了个人进口的低费率，功率超过160马力的车要走完整商业税率，一台车的报废税从过去约3400卢布跳到75万到100万卢布以上。今年又加了“功率挂钩”的算法，从吉尔吉斯斯坦这类中亚国家转口的车，要按全额补差清关。个人进口和平行进口这两条低价通道，基本收了口。做俄语区选品的人该盯着这一条，它也值得转给同行。

The other reason the share looks bad is that the cheap channels have been closed one by one. Since late 2025 Russia has scrapped the low personal-import rate: cars above 160 horsepower now face the full commercial rate, pushing the recycling fee on a single vehicle from about 3,400 rubles to 750,000–1,000,000 rubles or more. This year it added a power-linked formula, so cars transshipped from Central Asian states such as Kyrgyzstan must clear customs with the full difference paid. Those two low-cost routes — personal import and parallel import — are largely shut. Anyone choosing models for the Russian-language region should watch this, and it is worth forwarding to peers.

更硬的一道门槛设在出租车市场。俄工贸部7月8日给了条件：走特殊程序进入出租车市场的车型，本地化积分要够1500分，生产企业前两年的投资要够100亿卢布。哈弗、TENET、Omoda、捷途的部分车型已经够线。哈弗在图拉州的工厂是长城2019年投的，本地化率六成多；圣彼得堡原来的通用工厂、卡卢加原来的大众工厂，现在给JELAND做散件组装，底子是奇瑞Jaecoo和Omoda换标。奇瑞在俄把官方进口、本地组装、换标授权一起摆上桌，崔东树把这套打法叫“多生孩子好打架”。

A tougher threshold sits in the taxi market. On July 8 Russia's Ministry of Industry and Trade set the terms: models admitted to the taxi market through a special procedure need at least 1,500 localisation points, and their makers must have invested at least 10 billion rubles over the previous two years. Some Haval, TENET, Omoda and Jetour models already qualify. Haval's plant in Tula was funded by Great Wall in 2019 with localisation above 60%; the former GM plant in St Petersburg and the former Volkswagen plant in Kaluga now do knock-down assembly for JELAND, a brand built on rebadged Chery Jaecoo and Omoda models. Chery has put official imports, local assembly and rebadge licensing on the table at once — a play Cui Dongshu calls "more children make for better fighting."

我的判断是，俄罗斯正在从把车卖进去，转向在哪儿把车造出来。这个转向对中国车企未必全是坏事：报废税收紧的同时，俄方也堵掉了非授权经销商的低价竞争，走官方渠道的那一截反而更稳，奇瑞、吉利的本地组装就是顺着这条缝进去的。我看错的可能有两处。一是份额口径本身不统一，8月单月的52.7%和累计口径给出来的数并不一样，拿单月数字讲趋势容易失真。二是我没有俄语区渠道的一手信息，11.5%的新能源份额背后，充电网络和售后能不能跟上，我只能存疑。

My read is that Russia is moving from getting cars sold into it toward deciding where they get built. That turn is not entirely bad news for Chinese carmakers: while the recycling fee tightens, Moscow has also shut out low-price competition from unauthorised dealers, so the official-channel slice is steadier, and Chery's and Geely's local assembly went in through exactly that gap. There are two places I could be wrong. First, share figures come in different definitions — the single-month 52.7% for August and the cumulative readings do not match, and one month is a shaky basis for a trend. Second, I have no first-hand information on channels in the Russian-speaking region; whether charging networks and aftersales can keep pace with an 11.5% electrified share is something I can only flag, not settle.

留一个问题：如果你在做俄语区或者中亚转口，门槛抬上去之后，你会把量压在官方授权渠道上，还是换一个市场重新铺？两条路的账期和风险完全不一样，而答案在今年四季度就会露出来——俄方自己预计月销11万到13万辆，比前三季度明显走弱。把这篇转给做俄语区渠道的同行，他们手上的报价单比任何一份榜单都真实。

One question to close on: if you run the Russian-speaking region or Central Asian transshipment, now that the thresholds are up, will you concentrate volume in the authorised channel or move the volume into another market and start over? The payment terms and the risks on those two paths are entirely different, and the answer will surface in the fourth quarter — Russia itself expects 110,000 to 130,000 units a month, clearly weaker than the first three quarters. Forward this to peers who run channels in the Russian-speaking region; the price lists in their hands beat any ranking.

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