还没涨价，
你怎么就想下单了？
今年诺贝尔经济学奖给出解释
Why Tomorrow Changes What We Do Today
听说明年可能涨价，你会现在下单吗？2026年经济学奖从家庭与企业的真实决策出发，解释“预期”怎样影响消费、定价和经济政策。
CEFR参考难度：B2
本栏目依据瑞典皇家科学院2026年经济学奖公告及科普背景资料，独立撰写英文精读稿。文中的电脑与咖啡馆场景用于解释概念。
奖项授奖理由 · 原文节选
“for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation”
意为“为宏观经济稳定政策奠定微观经济基础”。逐段阅读时，留意从个人决策到整体结果的连接。
A LINE FROM THE ACADEMY
从一句授奖理由，看懂研究方向
for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation
为宏观经济稳定政策奠定微观经济基础。
micro 关注家庭、企业等个体；macro 关注整体经济。读懂两个层次之间的连接，就读懂了奖项主题。
这句原文的重点表达
microeconomic foundations · 经济学词组｜未单列 微观经济基础
搭配：build a model on microeconomic foundations。
macroeconomic stabilisation · 经济学词组｜未单列 宏观经济稳定
用法：stabilisation 是英式拼法；美式通常写作 stabilization。
READ · THINK
逐段精读
01 / 06
Suppose you hear that a laptop may cost more next year. Would you buy it now, or wait? Your answer depends on your budget, but also on what you expect to happen next. A shop owner faces a similar question when setting prices. Millions of such small choices can shape the whole economy. That is the everyday doorway into the 2026 Prize in Economic Sciences.
译文
假设你听说明年笔记本电脑可能涨价：现在买，还是再等等？答案取决于你的预算，也取决于你认为未来会发生什么。店主定价时也面临类似问题。无数个这样的小决定，汇在一起便会影响整个经济。这就是理解2026年经济学奖的一扇日常入口。
释义与用法
expect · 预期；认为将会发生
expect prices to rise 预计价格上涨；此处强调对未来的判断，并非单纯的愿望。
shape the whole economy · 影响整体经济
shape 在这里作动词，表示“塑造、影响”；the whole economy 指宏观经济。
一句话拆解
Your answer depends on your budget, but also on what you expect to happen next.
depends on ... but also on ... 并列两个依据；what you expect to happen next 是 on 后面的宾语从句。
02 / 06
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the 2026 prize to Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford for work on the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation. In plain English, they helped explain how the choices of households and businesses add up to booms, slowdowns and changes in prices. Policymakers need that link when deciding how to respond to an economic shock.
译文
瑞典皇家科学院将2026年经济学奖授予Robert E. Hall和Michael Woodford，表彰他们为宏观经济稳定政策建立微观经济基础。通俗地说，他们帮助解释家庭和企业的选择怎样汇成繁荣、放缓和价格变化。决策者面对经济冲击时，需要理解这条从个体到整体的链条。
释义与用法
microeconomic foundations · 微观经济基础
micro- 指个体层面；这里关注家庭与企业怎样做决定。
macroeconomic stabilisation · 宏观经济稳定政策
macro- 指整体层面；stabilisation 强调减轻经济的剧烈波动。
一句话拆解
They helped explain how the choices of households and businesses add up to booms, slowdowns and changes in prices.
how ... 引出“怎样发生”的宾语从句；add up to 表示多个小决定汇成整体结果。
03 / 06
Hall studied a puzzle about household consumption. If people think a pay rise will last, they may change their spending plans. If they believe a payment is only temporary, they may save more of it. Hall showed why new information about future income matters for spending today. The Academy also notes an important limit: some households plan ahead in this way, while others do not.
译文
Robert E. Hall研究的是家庭消费中的一个难题。如果人们认为加薪会持续，就可能调整消费计划；如果觉得一笔钱只是暂时收入，便可能多存一些。他说明了有关未来收入的新信息为何会影响今天的花钱方式。科学院也提醒了一个重要边界：有些家庭会这样提前规划，另一些则不会。
释义与用法
household consumption · 家庭消费
household 指同住的人组成的家庭单位；consumption 在经济学中指购买和使用商品、服务。
temporary · 暂时的
a temporary payment 一次性款项；与 lasting / permanent 相对。
一句话拆解
If they believe a payment is only temporary, they may save more of it.
If ... 提出条件；may 保留可能性，没有断言所有家庭都会这样做。
04 / 06
Woodford brought such decisions into a wider model. Imagine a café owner considering next month's prices. She looks at today's costs, but she also thinks about future costs and what other cafés may charge. Households, meanwhile, may react to both current and expected interest rates. By connecting spending, business prices and interest rates, Woodford gave policymakers a clearer way to study inflation.
译文
Michael Woodford把这类决策纳入更完整的模型。想象一家咖啡馆的老板在考虑下个月的价格：她既要看今天的成本，也会估计未来成本和其他咖啡馆可能怎样定价。与此同时，家庭也可能对当前及预期的利率作出反应。他将消费、企业定价和利率联系起来，让决策者能更清楚地研究通货膨胀。
释义与用法
expected interest rates · 预期利率
interest rate 是利率；expected 说明影响决策的还包括人们对未来利率的判断。
inflation · 通货膨胀
指价格水平持续普遍上涨，不等于某一家店单独涨价。
一句话拆解
She looks at today's costs, but she also thinks about future costs and what other cafés may charge.
but ... also ... 补充另一层考虑；what other cafés may charge 指其他店可能收取的价格。
05 / 06
This helps explain why a central bank's words can matter. A rate decision changes borrowing costs now. A credible statement about future policy can also influence what people expect, and therefore what they do today. That does not mean every announcement works. If people do not trust the message, or if their own situation leaves little room to change course, the effect may be weaker.
译文
这也解释了央行的“话”为何可能产生影响。利率决定会改变眼下的借贷成本；关于未来政策、且令人相信的表态，也可能影响人们的预期，进而影响今天的行动。但这不等于每次宣布都会奏效。若人们不相信表态，或个人处境不允许调整计划，效果就可能较弱。
释义与用法
policy · 政策；行动方案
economic policy 经济政策；句中指央行未来可能采取的措施。
credible · 可信的
a credible statement 可信的表态；政策沟通要发挥作用，可信度很重要。
一句话拆解
A credible statement about future policy can also influence what people expect, and therefore what they do today.
两个 what 从句分别指“人们预期什么”和“今天做什么”；therefore 连接预期与行为。
06 / 06
The prize is about better tools for stabilisation policy, not a promise that a model can predict every crisis. A fuel shortage is different from a sudden fall in spending; the right response depends on the kind of shock. Hall and Woodford's work helps policymakers trace how a measure may pass through households and firms. For the rest of us, it offers one useful question: what future are people acting on today?
译文
这项奖表彰的是改进经济稳定政策的工具，并不是承诺模型可以预测每一场危机。燃料短缺与消费突然下滑是不同的冲击，应对办法取决于问题类型。Robert E. Hall和Michael Woodford的研究帮助决策者追踪一项措施如何经由家庭与企业产生影响。对普通读者来说，还可以带走一个问题：人们今天的行动，依据的是怎样的未来预期？
释义与用法
stabilisation policy · 稳定政策；平抑经济波动的措施
常见工具包括利率与财政措施；效果取决于时机和冲击类型。
shock · 冲击；突发扰动
an economic shock 经济冲击，如能源短缺或消费骤降。
一句话拆解
The right response depends on the kind of shock.
depend on 表示“取决于”；这句提醒读者不能把所有经济冲击套进同一套应对办法。
KEEP THESE WORDS
本期重点表达
CEFR 是欧洲语言共同参考框架。词义等级参考 Cambridge Dictionary；经济学专门含义与词组若未单列等级，便不套用一般词义的等级。
expectation · 经济学义｜未单列
预期；对未来的判断
常用搭配：expectations about future income
例句：Expectations can affect spending today.
用法：剑桥词典给“期望好事”义标 B2；本文的经济学义不直接套用这个等级。
household · CEFR B2｜名词义
家庭；住在一起的一组人
常用搭配：household income / household spending
例句：A household may save part of the payment.
用法：可指一人或多人组成的住户，不必等同于“父母加孩子”。
consumption · CEFR C1｜一般使用义
消费；使用量
常用搭配：household consumption / fuel consumption
例句：Consumption may change when expectations change.
用法：经济学中专指商品和服务的消费；词典对这一专业义未单列等级。
inflation · CEFR B2｜物价义
通货膨胀
常用搭配：rising inflation / inflation rate
例句：The central bank wants to limit inflation.
用法：指整体价格持续上涨，不等于一件商品变贵。
policy · CEFR B2｜方案义
政策；行动方案
常用搭配：economic policy / monetary policy
例句：Clear policy can help people plan ahead.
用法：monetary policy 是货币政策；fiscal policy 是财政政策。
predict · CEFR B1｜预测义
预测
常用搭配：predict a change / predict the future
例句：No model can predict every crisis.
用法：predict 强调对将来的判断；并不表示结果一定会发生。
interest rate · 金融词组｜未单列
利率
常用搭配：raise interest rates / lower interest rates
例句：A lower interest rate can change borrowing costs.
用法：rate 单独有其他词义；这里是借贷资金的价格。
add up to · 词组｜未单列
合起来造成；总计为
常用搭配：small choices add up to a larger effect
例句：Millions of choices add up to a national trend.
用法：本文用的是“汇成整体结果”，不只是算术加法。
FROM ONE PERSON TO THE WHOLE ECONOMY
把诺奖结论说准确
这项研究并非简单地说“预期决定一切”。它解释家庭消费、企业定价与利率政策如何相互作用，让稳定经济的政策有更扎实的个体行为基础。
TRY IT YOURSELF
读后想一想
1. 同样收到一笔钱，为什么有人会多花一些，有人会先存起来？
2. 咖啡馆老板在调价前，除了今天的成本，还会考虑什么？
3. 央行说“未来可能降息”，什么情况下这句话更可能影响你今天的计划？