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今日PCB I 2026六家载板产能全售罄 ,味之素握95%份额

今日PCB I 2026六家载板产能全售罄 ,味之素握95%份额 电子制造出海资讯
2026-10-04
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导读:AI新品放量、载板供需转紧、上游材料涨价。供应链给的具体数字很实在——Google TPU v8本季推出,主板从22-24层拉到34层、CCL同步升到M8;Amazon Trainium 3虽第二季量

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2026年10月4日(周日)| 近24小时   中英双语

今日焦点 国内·行情/技术 10月4日

工商时报:PCB产业Q4看三条线,Google/Amazon主板层数、1.6T光模块规格全线上修

工商时报把PCB产业第四季焦点归纳成三条线:AI新品放量、载板供需转紧、上游材料涨价。供应链给的具体数字很实在——Google TPU v8本季推出,主板从22-24层拉到34层、CCL同步升到M8;Amazon Trainium 3虽第二季量产,气冷和水冷主板分别用26层、40层设计。更猛的是光模块,800G主流PCB约38-48层,1.6T直接上46-52层,材料奔着M8、M9去。台链里欣兴、南电、景硕吃载板,臻鼎、金像电吃高阶交换机板,台虹则在新材料HC(碳氢树脂)、PTFE上布局,等着Rubin Ultra的最终规格落定。

EN | The Commercial Times frames Q4 PCB around three axes—AI new-product ramp, tightening substrate supply, and upstream material hikes. Concrete specs: Google TPU v8 ships this quarter with motherboards jumping from 22-24 to 34 layers and CCL up to M8; Amazon Trainium 3 uses 26-layer (air-cooled) and 40-layer (liquid-cooled) boards. Optical modules push harder—800G PCB at 38-48 layers, 1.6T at 46-52 layers, materials heading to M8/M9. Taiwan plays: Unimicron/Nan Ya/Kinsus on substrates, Zhen Ding/Kinsus (Gold Circuit) on high-layer switches, and Topcell (台虹) positioning HC/PTFE films for Rubin Ultra's final spec.

2 国内·投资 10月4日

沪电股份掏2000万入股算力互联芯片公司澜昆微,主业轨道多探一个触角

沪电股份这次不满足于只做板子了。公司公告出资2000万元,以有限合伙人身份参与设立永赢星舟基金,这只基金只投一家——算力互联芯片公司澜昆微,投完沪电间接持股约1.87%。澜昆微做的是高带宽光接口芯片(OIO)和芯粒集成,说白了就是解决几千张GPU机柜之间怎么高速"对话"的问题。对沪电来说这2000万不算大钱,但方向清楚:它的PCB本来就用在AI服务器和高速交换机上,顺势往芯片设计端探一个触角。半年报也撑得起这口气——上半年营收136.89亿、同比+61.17%,净利29.23亿、+73.72%,市值站上2500亿;32层及以上高端产品收入同比翻了近两番(+190.83%),PCB毛利率也爬到40.52%。

EN | WUS (沪电股份) is reaching upstream. It committed RMB20m as LP into the Yongying Xingzhou fund, which backs a single target—compute-interconnect chip startup Lan Kun Micro (澜昆微)—giving WUS about 1.87% indirect stake. Lan Kun builds high-bandwidth optical I/O chips and chiplet integration, i.e. how thousands of GPU racks talk to each other at speed. The RMB20m is small, but the direction is clear: WUS PCBs already go into AI servers and switches, so it's feeling toward the chip-design end. The H1 results back the confidence—revenue RMB13.69bn (+61.17% YoY), net profit RMB2.92bn (+73.72%), market cap over RMB250bn; 32-layer-and-up product revenue nearly quadrupled (+190.83%) and PCB gross margin reached 40.52%.

3 国内·行情 10月4日

PCB涨价走到"第二棒":建滔年内七涨,板厂利润时差开始显现

建滔这轮涨价走到"第二棒"了。从3月到8月底,建滔积层板连发七次调价,8月28日那轮FR-4统一上调10%、7628及以上厚布PP+10%、薄布PP+20%,部分FR-4规格累计涨幅已经破100%。但涨价传到板厂利润有个时差——把超声电子、奥士康、崇达几家半年报摊开看,超声电子覆铜板收入+52.46%、毛利率提了3.18个百分点,可它的印制线路板收入只+0.54%、毛利率反而掉了4.41个百分点。原因不复杂:玻纤布、铜箔、树脂先涨,覆铜板能较快改价;PCB是定制品,手里的旧订单不会自动重估,等售价跟上,成本早就进表了。这轮不是简单的"上游涨、PCB跟涨",利润在产业链里挪得比想象慢。

EN | Kinstar's (建滔) price hikes have reached the "second leg." From March to end-August it lifted prices seven times; the Aug 28 round took FR-4 +10%, thick-cloth (7628+) PP +10%, thin-cloth PP +20%, with some FR-4 specs now up over 100% cumulatively. But margin gains lag at the board level. Half-year reports show the gap: Chuan Son (超声电子) CCL revenue +52.46% with gross margin +3.18pp, yet its PCB revenue only +0.54% with margin -4.41pp. Glass cloth, copper foil and resin move first and CCL reprices fast; PCB is custom work on old quotes that don't auto-reprice, so cost hits the P&L before selling prices catch up. Margin is migrating slower than the "upstream up, PCB follows" story suggests.

4 国内·行情/数据 10月4日

PCB材料景气拆成五个方向:全球PCB 2025约580亿→2030年1350亿美元

一份梳理把PCB材料景气拆成五个方向,数字挺能说明问题。全球PCB市场预计从2025年约580亿美元扩张到2030年1350亿美元,AI数据中心需求增幅据测算超六倍。往上拆:高端电子玻纤布全球库存紧张,大摩估2026年供给缺口约40%、2027年更紧、要到2028年才缓和;HVLP铜箔这边,AI服务器需求2026年同比+260%到2.4万吨,2027年再+108%到约5万吨。覆铜板、高端玻纤布、HVLP铜箔、电子树脂、金刚石耗材,整条上游是同步在动,不是哪一个细分单独走强的行情。

EN | A sector note breaks the PCB-material upcycle into five fronts, with telling numbers. Global PCB is seen growing from ~US$58bn in 2025 to US$135bn by 2030, AI data-center demand up over 6x. Drilling up: high-end electronic glass cloth is tight globally—Morgan Stanley sees a ~40% supply gap in 2026, worse in 2027, easing only by 2028; HVLP copper foil for AI servers rises +260% YoY to 24kt in 2026 and another +108% to ~50kt in 2027. CCL, glass cloth, HVLP foil, electronic resin and diamond consumables are all moving together—not a single-segment story.

5 国内·上市/扩产 10月4日

东山精密港股IPO临近,并购转型后上半年净利近30亿

东山精密转型的步子越迈越大。公司完成两笔战略性并购后,上半年净利润冲到接近30亿元,光模块毛利率约37%、索尔思光电利润贡献过半,说明从FPC全球第二、PCB全球第三,往"光芯片+光模块+AI PCB"纵切的路已经开始兑现。更关键的是港股IPO启动——计划募20到30亿美元,UBS、国泰海通、广发、中信做联席保荐,最早下月就能上。配套的动作是17亿美元光芯片及光模块扩产、AI PCB新基地、泰国海外基地。从消费电子基本盘切到AI算力硬件平台,中间还隔着产能爬坡和客户验证,但方向已经很清楚。

EN | Dongshan Precision (东山精密) is accelerating its pivot. After two strategic acquisitions, H1 net profit approached RMB3bn, with optical-module gross margin ~37% and SolitOp (索尔思光电) contributing over half—evidence the move from #2 FPC / #3 PCB worldwide toward "optical chips + modules + AI PCB" is paying off. The bigger step: a Hong Kong IPO to raise US$2-3bn, with UBS, Guotai Haitong, GF and CITIC as sponsors, possibly as early as next month. Alongside it: a US$1.7bn optical-chip/module expansion, a new AI-PCB base, and a Thailand site. The shift from consumer-electronics base to AI-compute hardware still faces capacity ramp and qualification, but the direction is set.

6 国内/台·行情 10月3日

台股"光辉10月":外资单周狂扫PCB载板,欣兴/南电/景硕买超超40亿

台股这周"光辉10月",外资对PCB和载板供应链是真的不手软。中时统计,欣兴、南亚、南电、景硕这四家龙头,单周获外资不计成本加码40到60亿元以上,其中欣兴68.18亿、南亚61.68亿、南电54.12亿、景硕41.61亿,直接把大盘推高。10月2日一天就有13档创股价新高,PCB和ABF载板上下游占大多数。有意思的是上游CCL也疯——腾辉电子-KY抢进AI服务器电源、高速交换机和光模块,400V/800V高阶电源材料第四季量产,M7到M9已向国际大厂送样;联茂同步大喷发。资金现在认的是"有订单、获利上修、重大转机"这条线。

EN | Taiwan's "glorious October" saw foreign desks pile into the PCB and substrate chain without hesitation. Chinatimes tallies Unimicron, Nan Ya, Nan Ya PCB (南电) and Kinsus at NT$4-6bn+ of foreign buying each in a single week—Unimicron NT$6.818bn, Nan Ya NT$6.168bn, Nan Ya PCB NT$5.412bn, Kinsus NT$4.161bn—lifting the index. On Oct 2 alone, 13 names hit record highs, mostly PCB/ABF substrate names. Upstream CCL joined the frenzy: Dynamic (腾辉电子-KY) is pushing into AI-server power, high-speed switches and optical modules, with 400V/800V premium power materials into volume production in Q4 and M7-M9 sampling to global majors; Elite (联茂) surged too. Capital is rewarding "orders, earnings upgrades, turnaround" names.

今日焦点 国外·材料 10月3日

一篇诊断戳破ABF膜命门:味之素握95%份额,2026六家载板产能全售罄、交期翻倍

一篇行业诊断把ABF膜的命门点透了:全球超过95%的ABF增层膜捏在日本味之素手里。2026年,全球六家主要ABF基板供应商产能全部售罄,整体交期从2025年初的6-8个月拉长到12-14个月,直接翻倍。根子在AI芯片规格——Blackwell Ultra封装到5倍光罩、约85×110mm,单颗载板要叠20层以上ABF膜;后续Rubin Ultra更要到9.5倍光罩。味之素自己算过:AI载板面积指数是传统产品3.5倍、积层从6层到18层,单颗AI载板ABF用量是传统的10倍。Ibiden公开的AI服务器载板生产负荷,从2024年的1.0跳到2026年的1.8、2027年预计2.5——同一条线、同一批人,有效交付能力被稀释近一倍。

EN | A diagnostic lays bare the ABF film chokepoint: Ajinomoto holds over 95% of global ABF build-up film. In 2026 all six major ABF substrate makers' capacity is sold out, with lead times doubled from 6-8 months in early 2025 to 12-14 months. The cause is AI die specs—Blackwell Ultra packages at 5x reticle (~85×110mm) need 20+ ABF layers; Rubin Ultra goes to 9.5x. Ajinomoto estimates AI substrate area is 3.5x traditional, layers 6→18, and ABF usage per package 10x. Ibiden's disclosed AI-server substrate load factor went 1.0 (2024) → 1.8 (2026) → 2.5 (2027)—same line, same crew, effective capacity nearly halved.

8 国外·技术 10月3日

玻璃基板量产时间表摆上台面:英特尔2026-2030、台积电CoPoS最快2028底

一份玻璃基板深度报告把各家量产时间表摆上了台面。英特尔2023年9月就秀了样品,计划2026-2030年量产;台积电的CoPoS(Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate)平台2026年设首条试验线,最快2028年底到2029年上半年量产;三星电机、Absolics、Ibiden也都给了明确时间表。大陆这边,京东方上半年试验线已全自动化通线,沃格光电成都8.6代线预计2026年量产,蓝思科技推进3万平TGV专用厂房、2026年7月刚和Intel签了合作备忘录。产业处于"样品验证—试验线—小批量"阶段,2028年前后进首批商业化,Yole估2030年先进封装市场超794亿美元、玻璃基板潜在空间上百亿美元。设备环节(成孔、填孔、CMP、RDL、检测)会先吃到这波。

EN | A deep-dive lays out glass-substrate mass-production timelines. Intel showed samples in Sep 2023 and targets 2026-2030 volume; TSMC's CoPoS platform gets its first pilot line in 2026, with volume possibly late-2028 to H1-2029; Samsung SEMCO, Absolics and Ibiden all have stated schedules. In China, BOE's pilot line automated in H1, WOG (沃格光电) Chengdu Gen-8.6 line targets 2026 volume, and Lens (蓝思) is building a 30k-sqm TGV plant after signing an Intel MOU in Jul 2026. The industry sits at "sample validation—pilot—small batch," with first commercialization around 2028; Yole sees 2030 advanced-packaging market >US$79.4bn and glass substrate a tens-of-billions opportunity. Equipment (via formation, filling, CMP, RDL, inspection) benefits first.

9 国外·技术 10月3日

三星把热管理推到系统级,中介层冲40倍光罩;Ibiden砸5000亿日元扩产

三星电子把先进封装的热管理从芯片一路推到封装和系统级。它披露的路线里,中介层(interposer)面积从现在的5.5倍光罩,往9倍、12倍、最高40倍演进——靠的是更多HBM和算力die堆上去。这直接拽动整条链:载板得更大、更多层。Ibiden作为AI服务器载板主力,计划2026-2028三个财年砸约5000亿日元(约32亿美元)扩产,产能基数从2024年的1倍,拉到2026年1.8倍、2028年2.5倍,新设备从2027财年陆续量产。台积电那边,OCP APAC峰会抛出的路线图是2028年14倍光罩(约10颗大die+20颗HBM)、2029年冲40倍级的SoW-X。载板厂这头,扩产和材料拿到手才是真本事。

EN | Samsung Electronics is pushing advanced-packaging thermal management from the die through package to system level. Its roadmap scales interposer area from today's 5.5x reticle toward 9x, 12x and up to 40x, driven by stacking more HBM and compute dies—which forces substrates larger and more layered. Ibiden, the leading AI-server substrate maker, plans ~¥500bn (US$3.2bn) of capacity expansion across FY2026-2028, taking its base from 1x (2024) to 1.8x (2026) and 2.5x (2028), with new equipment ramping from FY2027. TSMC's OCP APAC roadmap: 14x reticle (~10 big dies + 20 HBM) in 2028, 40x-class SoW-X by 2029. For substrate makers, securing capacity and materials is the real game.

10 国外·市场 10月3日

先进IC载板市场2025约106亿→2034年189亿美元,FCBGA仍占近四成

一份市场报告给了载板赛道一个总量锚点:先进IC载板市场2025年约106.3亿美元,2026年估113.1亿美元,到2034年要到188.9亿美元,年复合增速6.6%。结构上看,FCBGA载板2025年占近四成,仍是CPU/GPU/网络设备和AI加速器的主载体;玻璃基板段增速最快(约11.27%)。报告点名的扩产动作也都是熟面孔:Ibiden扩日本Ohno厂供AI和服务器载板,AT&S扩马来西亚Kulim供AMD相关需求,日月光2026年5月上了310mm面板级封装自动化产线。需求端被AI、HPC和先进封装(chiplet、2.5D/3D)一路顶着,但制造资本密集、认证周期长,ABF载板尤其卡在材料和良率。

EN | A market report sizes the advanced IC substrate field: ~US$10.63bn in 2025, ~US$11.31bn in 2026, reaching US$18.89bn by 2034 at a 6.6% CAGR. By type, FCBGA held ~39.7% in 2025 and remains the workhorse for CPUs/GPUs/networking/AI accelerators; the glass segment grows fastest (~11.27%). Named expansions are familiar: Ibiden's Ohno (Japan) plant for AI/server substrates, AT&S's Kulim (Malaysia) for AMD-linked demand, and ASE's automated 310mm panel-level line in May 2026. Demand is lifted by AI, HPC and advanced packaging, but capital intensity and long qualification keep ABF supply tight on materials and yield.

GLOBAL PCB DAILY · 2026-10-04

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